Dodgers Calling Up Elite Prospect Julio Urias
On Friday night, the Dodgers were set to start LHP Alex Wood against the Mets in New York, but he has been scratched due to tightness in his triceps. To replace Wood, LA is calling up 19 year old sensation Julio Urias to make his big league debut.
To say Urias has earned the promotion would be an understatement. Just 19, even making it to Triple-A is an accomplishment, and for most pitchers in the PCL, the goal is to just not suck too badly. For instance, two years ago, a 21 year old Noah Syndergaard ran a 4.60 ERA/3.70 FIP, as he controlled the strike zone but got torched for a .389 BABIP, thanks to the fun-sized ballparks and offensive environments that make the league a hitter’s haven.
Urias, though, is running a 1.10 ERA/2.89 FIP in his first 41 innings in the PCL, and four of the five runs he’s allowed came in one appearance, back on April 16th. He allowed the fifth run in his next outing on April 22nd, a five inning affair where he gave up just two hits, walked one, and struck out eight. He’s pitched in five games since then, and posted the following line.
26 IP, 13 H, 0 R, 6 BB, 24 K.
In the toughest environment for a pitcher in baseball, Urias is destroying the competition. As a 19 year old.
So tomorrow, we’ll get to see how ready he is to get big leaguers out. His initial test, pitching against the defending NL champs in Citi Field, is not an easy one, but Urias has been dominating hitters in less-than-friendly environments all year. There is always a tremendous amount of uncertainty when it comes to projecting pitching prospects making the leap to the big leagues, but with Urias doing what he did to Triple-A batters this year, it was time to see how well he’ll handle the transition.
Steamer’s already sold on Urias, projecting him for a 3.43 ERA/3.58 FIP over the rest of the season, which would work out to put him on a pace for +3 WAR if he were to pitch a full season’s worth of innings. Whether the teenager can live up to those lofty projections and the hype that surrounds him is something we’re all about to find out.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I was thinking Urias reminded me of 19-year old Dwight Gooden, but Doc never looked this good in the minors.
Unless you count 300 k’s in 191 IP as an 18 year old.
I do count that, along with his 112 walks. If Urias got called up from A ball as a 19 year old with 112 walks, people today would go nuts about how he’s not ready regardless of his other stats.
When you’re a minor leaguer who puts up K/9 14.1 (!!!) over 191 innings (!!!), no one cares that your walk rate is bad. To be fair, Urias did put up a K/9 of 15 in 2015…
for three innings in rookie ball.
and being left-handed.
When Gooden was 19, he was putting up an 8+ WAR season at the big league level, with a 1.69 FIP.
Not a Dodgers fan, but this is awesome! Can’t wait to see this guy!
Is Super 2 status just something that a team like the Dodgers doesn’t care all that much about?
I think it makes sense for any team to hold a player back a week or two to get the extra year of control (like the Cubs with Bryant and Russell), but I don’t think any large market would worry about Super 2 very much.
Is he up for good? If Wood pitches on Monday (like the Dodgers are saying he will), then this could just be a spot start for Urias.
I wouldn’t think so. He’s never pitched more than 90 innings, so I’m assuming he’ll pitch ~120 this year. I was always thinking they’d bring up JDL first, and save Urias until later in the season, but JDL is hurt… if he stays up, maybe some bullpen duty to keep the innings down?
Obviously I have no knowledge of what the Dodgers are planning or expertise on the subject… but at what age are you comfortable with him pitching 200 innings? And how long do you think it takes to work up to that point?
It’s one of those unique situations where it looks like he’s MLB ready, but his stamina isn’t there and may not be for a couple of years. How do they handle that?
There’s been talk that this might just be a temporary call up. Maybe Urias makes a few starts until Ryu is ready then the Dodgers send him back down. So who knows. Super Two might not even be an issue.
Might not be an issue this year, but with the conventional wisdom not letting him 180 innings until 2018, service time will matter eventually.
I’m setting the Over/Under on Cistulli’s <10 Innings Discretionary Pitcher NERD Score at 13.5.
Maybe a 19 would be appropriate, letting his first NERD Score equal his age…
I am concerned about his violent mechanics; he will start strong and then go DL, TJ.
I’m super excited that Urias got called up. But I have to admit that I am a proponent of delaying the season of high level starting pitchers who are on restrictive seasonal innings pitched counts. Urias for example, has already pitched more than half the innings that he pitched last year. He probably has 80-100 innings left in him this season. Why not delay his start of the season to where he is making his first start in the minors in early June so he can pitch the entire months of July, August and September (high leverage games) and still have something left in the tank (bullpen?) if the team makes the playoffs. So many times we have seen a young pitcher to get shutdown near the end of the season (Strasburg) only to have his team miss him for high leveraged games. If you can only pitch X number of months due to seasonal innings limits, make those X number of months be the last not first months of the season. Especially for the impact high level prospect pitchers.
It’s a balancing act though. Your strategy makes sense if all things go well, but that doesn’t always happen with pitchers.
What happens if they call him up in early-June, and his Lat tightens up so he misses 4-6 weeks? Or he has a ‘dead arm’ period, some other soreness, etc. By the time he gets back on the field, he won’t have enough time to build up enough innings. Then you run into the same problem next year.
You plan around the things you can control. An actuary, or maybe a GM who is paid millions of dollars can figure out the most efficient model. The current model is anything but the most efficient.