Draft Results: The 2017 Over/Under Prospect Game

This very minute, the author has published an episode of FanGraphs Audio in which lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen and that same dumb author play the first inaugural edition of the Over/Under Prospect Game. The rules of the game are discussed in greater detail within the pod episode. In short, though, this is how it’s played:

  • Contestant A nominates a rookie-eligible player.
  • Contestant A also sets an over/under figure for that player’s WAR in 2017.
  • Contestant B chooses the over or under.

For sake of simplicity, we limited the game to 10 nominations total, five by Longenhagen and five by me. The only criterion for a nominee was that he retained his rookie eligibility entering the 2017 campaign.

Here’s the outcome of our draft in the order in which it happened:

The 2017 Over/Under Prospect Game
Round Contestant A Player Team WAR Contestant B O/U
1 Longenhagen Manuel Margot Padres 1.5 Cistulli Over
2 Cistulli Jose De Leon Rays 2.0 Longenhagen Under
3 Longenhagen Senzel + Burdi CIN + CWS 0.7 Cistulli Under
4 Cistulli Charlie Tilson White Sox 0.9 Longenhagen Over
5 Longenhagen Mitch Haniger Mariners 1.7 Cistulli Under
6 Cistulli Jharel Cotton Athletics 2.2 Longenhagen Over
7 Longenhagen Albert Almora Cubs 2.4 Cistulli Under
8 Cistulli Gavin Cecchini Mets 0.4 Longenhagen Under
9 Longenhagen Stephen Gonsalves Twins 1.0 Cistulli Under
10 Cistulli German Marquez Rockies 0.7 Longenhagen Over
Contestant A nominates player and sets over/under WAR figure.
Contestant B chooses over or under for that player.

With his third selection, Longnehagen annoyingly submitted the combined WAR of Nick Senzel and Zack Burdi — which is why those two players are listed together in the third row. Otherwise, the results should be pretty self-explanatory.

Over the course of the season, I’ll revisit the selections here and maybe annotate it with some light commentary. Unless it’s clear I’m losing badly, I mean, in which case I’ll ignore this post and forget it ever happened.

Don’t hesitate to witness the breathless, real-time drama of the Over/Under Prospect Game by way of FanGraphs Audio.

You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed.
We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member.
1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other.
2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off.
3. Dark mode and Classic mode!
4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them.
5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects.
6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.)
7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only.
8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members.
10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features!
We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it.




Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

8 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
ShauncoreMember since 2019
8 years ago

Why don’t you set up a poll so the listeners at home can play too?