Final Statistical Report for the Arizona Fall League

As he has previously in this life, the author has published below a statistical report for the Arizona Fall League — less because such reports are of great utility to prospect analysis, and more because, for those of us not residing in the Greater Phoenix area, one of the few ways to participate in that very compelling league is by dwelling for too long on very small statistical samples.

What follows is an example of the final such statistical report for the AFL, the season having ended last Saturday.

*****

SCOUT Leaderboard for AFL Hitters
Below is the final SCOUT batting leaderboard for all Arizona Fall League hitters. SCOUT+ combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+, where 100 is league average and above 100 is above average. Note that xHR%, xBB%, and xK% stand for expected home run, walk, and strikeout rate, respectively.

# Player Team Age PA HR BB K xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
1 Matt Olson Athletics 20 46 4 10 9 3.5% 14.3% 19.6% 137
2 Austin Nola Marlins 24 59 0 10 2 1.0% 13.3% 3.7% 136
3 Peter O’Brien D-backs 23 107 5 17 24 3.5% 15.2% 22.4% 134
4 Greg Bird Yankees 21 115 6 13 23 4.0% 11.2% 20.0% 133
5 Patrick Kivlehan Mariners 24 111 4 14 17 2.9% 12.4% 15.3% 132
6 Boog Powell Athletics 21 84 2 12 11 2.0% 12.9% 13.1% 127
7 Daniel Vogelbach Cubs 21 88 0 17 11 0.7% 16.8% 12.5% 125
8 Roman Quinn Phillies 21 110 2 16 16 1.7% 14.1% 14.5% 125
9 Jesse Winker Reds 20 84 3 14 17 2.5% 14.6% 20.2% 125
10 Bijan Rademacher Cubs 23 47 1 5 3 1.7% 10.1% 9.3% 123

SCOUT Leaderboard for AFL Pitchers
Below is the final SCOUT leaderboard for AFL pitchers who’ve recorded at least one start. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than average. Note that xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.

# Player Team Age G GS IP TBF K BB xK% xBB% SCOUT-
1 Kyle Zimmer Royals 22 3 3 9.2 36 15 4 31.0% 10.1% 70
2 Ivan Pineyro Cubs 22 7 4 13.2 57 16 4 26.5% 8.7% 79
3 Sean Nolin Blue Jays 24 7 7 22.1 96 24 6 25.0% 7.5% 79
4 Anthony DeSclafani Marlins 24 6 6 27.0 105 24 4 22.9% 5.6% 80
5 Taijuan Walker Mariners 21 2 2 9.0 37 11 2 25.0% 8.7% 83
6 Christian Bergman Rockies 26 7 3 18.2 76 17 2 22.4% 6.1% 83
7 Joely Rodriguez Pirates 22 7 7 22.2 98 22 6 22.4% 7.4% 86
8 Robbie Ray Tigers 22 4 4 11.0 46 13 6 25.3% 10.8% 87
9 Vincent Velasquez Astros 22 5 4 13.2 59 13 3 21.7% 7.9% 90
10 Nate Smith Angels 22 6 6 22.0 94 21 8 22.3% 9.0% 91

Notes and Observations
• Oakland first-base prospect Matt Olson recorded the third-highest home-run total (37) among all minor leaguers this season while also producing nearly even walk and strikeout rates (18.5% and 21.6%, respectively) over 634 plate appearances. That he did so both in the California League (which league features the second-largest run environment in affiliated baseball) and at Stockton’s Banner Island Ballpark (which park features a home-run park factor 20% above Cal League average for left-handed batters) compels one to adjust everything downward. That he exhibited almost the exact same profile relative to his peers in Arizona, however, is encouraging.

• Other Oakland prospect, outfielder Boog Powell, is not particularly strong nor otherwise physically impressive. He appears to possess enough athleticism and speed to play center, however, and — most probably most relevant to his possible future as a major leaguer — exhibits a strong combination of plate discipline and contact skills.

• Despite making only three appearances before requiring a shoulder procedure, Kansas City right-hander Kyle Zimmer was effective enough during that interval to produce the top regressed strikeout rate among all AFL starters. None of this is surprising, really: Zimmer has received excellent reviews of his repertoire, featured the top projected WAR among rookie-eligible pitchers for nearly the whole season, and has also had challenges with injury, too.





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

Comments are closed.