A day after missing out on Zack Greinke, the Giants quickly turned to their secondary plan.

Source: Samardzija is five years, $90M with #SFGiants, as @TBrownYahoo said.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 5, 2015

Even coming off a miserable season, Samardzija was still able to land a deal for $18 million per year, $3 million more per season than I predicted, and well north of the $64 million the crowd projected. The Giants, like the other suitors, chose to look beyond his 2015 performance, and are paying for the expected future value that lies in a right-arm that still owns premium stuff.

Even with the lousy 2015 season on his track record, Steamer still sees roughly a +3 WAR pitcher going forward, so this deal isn’t nearly as crazy as one might think by just looking at most recent season.

Jeff Samardzija’s Contract Estimate — 5 yr / $77.4 M

Year	Age	WAR	$/WAR	Est. Value
2016	31	2.8	$8.0 M	$22.4 M
2017	32	2.3	$8.4 M	$19.3 M
2018	33	1.8	$8.8 M	$15.9 M
2019	34	1.3	$9.3 M	$12.0 M
2020	35	0.8	$9.7 M	$7.8 M
Totals		9.0		$77.4 M

Assumptions
Value: $8M/WAR with 5.0% inflation
Aging Curve: +0.25 WAR/yr (18-27), 0 WAR/yr (28-30),-0.5 WAR/yr (31-37),-0.75 WAR/yr (> 37)

Dan Szymborski put up the ZIPS forecast for Samardzija on Twitter, and it’s even more optimistic.

Samardzija #ZiPS projection in SF. pic.twitter.com/5IQecABMus

— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) December 5, 2015

While $90 million isn’t cheap, Samardzija doesn’t project dramatically worse than Jordan Zimmermann going forward, and this is the price range the market is establishing for above average pitchers. And by signing Samardzija for $90 million, the Giants likely have room to add a second starter as well while still coming in under the total amount they would have had to pay Greinke over the next five or six years.

While there will likely be lots of criticism of this deal from those who simply look at Samardzija’s disaster season in Chicago, the stuff and the longer track record suggest that he’s still a quality arm who just had a bad year. $90 million isn’t a bargain, especially when you factor in the cost of the draft pick surrendered to sign him, but Samardzija’s a good pitcher who will help the team win, and this isn’t a dramatic overpay for a team looking to win in the short-term.