Giants Sign Jeff Samardzija
A day after missing out on Zack Greinke, the Giants quickly turned to their secondary plan.
Source: Samardzija is five years, $90M with #SFGiants, as @TBrownYahoo said.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 5, 2015
Even coming off a miserable season, Samardzija was still able to land a deal for $18 million per year, $3 million more per season than I predicted, and well north of the $64 million the crowd projected. The Giants, like the other suitors, chose to look beyond his 2015 performance, and are paying for the expected future value that lies in a right-arm that still owns premium stuff.
Even with the lousy 2015 season on his track record, Steamer still sees roughly a +3 WAR pitcher going forward, so this deal isn’t nearly as crazy as one might think by just looking at most recent season.
| Year | Age | WAR | $/WAR | Est. Value |
| 2016 | 31 | 2.8 | $8.0 M | $22.4 M |
| 2017 | 32 | 2.3 | $8.4 M | $19.3 M |
| 2018 | 33 | 1.8 | $8.8 M | $15.9 M |
| 2019 | 34 | 1.3 | $9.3 M | $12.0 M |
| 2020 | 35 | 0.8 | $9.7 M | $7.8 M |
| Totals | 9.0 | $77.4 M |
Value: $8M/WAR with 5.0% inflation
Aging Curve: +0.25 WAR/yr (18-27), 0 WAR/yr (28-30),-0.5 WAR/yr (31-37),-0.75 WAR/yr (> 37)
Dan Szymborski put up the ZIPS forecast for Samardzija on Twitter, and it’s even more optimistic.
Samardzija #ZiPS projection in SF. pic.twitter.com/5IQecABMus
— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) December 5, 2015
While $90 million isn’t cheap, Samardzija doesn’t project dramatically worse than Jordan Zimmermann going forward, and this is the price range the market is establishing for above average pitchers. And by signing Samardzija for $90 million, the Giants likely have room to add a second starter as well while still coming in under the total amount they would have had to pay Greinke over the next five or six years.
While there will likely be lots of criticism of this deal from those who simply look at Samardzija’s disaster season in Chicago, the stuff and the longer track record suggest that he’s still a quality arm who just had a bad year. $90 million isn’t a bargain, especially when you factor in the cost of the draft pick surrendered to sign him, but Samardzija’s a good pitcher who will help the team win, and this isn’t a dramatic overpay for a team looking to win in the short-term.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
And the Giants get to give Billy Beane a reminder right in his back yard of the guy that he gave up Addison Russell and more just to rent for a half-season
I think you mean to say, a reminder that he gave up Addison Russell and stuff for Marcus Semien, Josh Phegley, a half season of Jeff Samardzija, and stuff
(Which really doesn’t make it better)
Interestingly, B-R and their bWAR calculator says Shark has never even had a league average season, peaking at 2.0 WAR. Tough guy to value.
His 2014 was worth 3.7. It always splits up the WAR section by team, so each team stint shows up once for 2014.
I like this deal for the Giants. Samardzija’s second half was a disaster on the South Side, but he was fine in the first half. And going to a bigger park like SF should only help him. If he avoids injuries, he should pitch to his value.
However, the concern is the strike out rate falling so much in 2015, so we’ll probably know within a few months if this deal is going to be okay or a disaster for the Giants.
Obviously, a bit disappointing for Giants fans a day after missing out on Grienke, but I think this is a fine contract, all things considered. He also gets the advantage of Buster Posey, though I do wonder how much of a benefit a hard thrower will get from Posey’s pitch framing.
You linked to the wrong Jordan Zimmerman(n)
LOL, can’t trust those links!
I would have preferred the Giants sign Price or Greinke. Perhaps signing Samardzija will work out, especially if Dave Righetti can help shore up his weak spots. Perhaps.
90MM for a 5 ERA LOL
They paid that for Jeff Samardzija, not for this pitcher I’ve never heard of named “5 ERA”
Salient retort, bro
Good point.
Paying $90 for Samardzija is self-evidently funny. There’s no need to say “5 ERA.”
Better to aggravate the idiots
Downvote more, bitches.
wrong Jordan Zimmermann linked.
Hm, for some reason I’ve had this feeling about him that whoever signs him is going to get a great bargain. The fact that it is the Giants now doesn’t surprise me at all. He is going to have his best years, I can feel it.
WAR by season, 2012-2015: 2.7, 2.7, 4.1, 2.7. I’m not sure I buy the “one bad year” narrative. I know WAR doesn’t tell the whole story, but Samardzija’s really only been substantially above average once in his career, and he’ll be 31 next year.
Yeah, not sure how he possibly projects the same as Zimmermann going forward.
By runs allowed Zimmermann has been nearly twice as good over the past three seasons:
http://goo.gl/HTKOuD
And he’s a year younger!
As someone who values the weekend: Thanks for doing work on the weekends Dave!
Kids, this is why you concentrate on playing baseball over football. Even coming off a bad year, Samardzija gets $90 million.
So were the rumors of a $100 million offer just a rumor floated by his agent? It’s possible he took slightly less to play with a contender like San Fran, but I doubt it. This is his last pay day most likely.
Also, brain injuries and not having to get tackled by men weighing 400 lbs are other salient reasons.
On the other hand…there’s a much higher chance you never get any money at all as an MLB first rounder than as an NFL first rounder.
While $90 million isn’t cheap, Samardzija doesn’t project dramatically worse than Jordan Zimmermann going forward, and this is the price range the market is establishing for above average pitchers.
Does anyone know where I can find the difference in the projections between the two players, or just Zimmermann’s projection since Samardzija’s is in the tweet? I would have guessed that Zimmermann’s WAR would be about 1 WAR better per year, making his contract 5 WAR better, which is I think is more valuable than $20 million.
https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/673204030693203968
13.8 WAR, to Samardzija’s 12.8.
I think that’s super low on Zimmermann, but that’s what ZiPS thinks.