Good Lord, Khris Davis
Khris Davis has elements of being a very good player. No matter what his reputation might be, he’s perfectly good at tracking down fly balls. He runs fairly well, all things considered, and he’s swinging at a career-low rate of pitches out of the zone. What’s most important, as you already know, is that Davis has power. Major power, big-time power, the kind of power that plays in any park. Davis swats a bunch of home runs. He does so while rarely popping up. He has a career wRC+ of 122, which ties him with Carlos Santana and Yoenis Cespedes.
The A’s are happy to have Davis. Any lineup would be happy to have Davis in it. There’s just — look, it’s not like I take extra pleasure in this. I’ve got nothing against Khris Davis. I just feel obligated to point out some numbers. A short while ago, I wrote about Bradley Zimmer’s outstanding throwing arm. It’s no secret that Davis doesn’t have an outstanding throwing arm, himself. It’s a known weakness, but this year has still been exceptional. In the Zimmer post, I combined DRS and UZR arm-value measures into one. I showed you the current top-10 arms. Here are the current bottom-10 arms.
| Player | OF Innings | Arm Value |
|---|---|---|
| Khris Davis | 635.2 | -8.5 |
| Ben Revere | 414.0 | -4.6 |
| Christian Yelich | 812.2 | -3.7 |
| Matt Joyce | 660.1 | -3.5 |
| Adam Jones | 794.2 | -3.3 |
| Charlie Blackmon | 850.1 | -3.3 |
| J.D. Martinez | 441.0 | -3.2 |
| Aaron Altherr | 598.1 | -3.0 |
| Chris Young | 274.0 | -2.8 |
| A.J. Pollock | 392.2 | -2.7 |
Just as in the Zimmer post, here’s how 2017 left fielders have done defensively, in terms of holding baserunners, and throwing them out. Davis is the point in yellow.
Davis has recorded one assist. There are 40 left fielders with more than that. And when Davis has had a chance, he’s prevented a baserunner from advancing 52% of the time. The league average for left fielders is a hair over 63%. Obviously, when the surface numbers are bad, the underlying numbers must also be bad. These are bad numbers.
Davis is already at -8.5 runs. That’s the number from the earlier table, and while all these arm-value numbers are estimates, they’re the best we’ve got. That’s the third-worst arm-value rating since 2003, which is as far back as we have both DRS and UZR available. And I’m writing this on July 24. The two players with worse outfield arm seasons played nearly twice as many innings in the outfield as Davis has to date. And their arm values were worse by tenths of one run. To put everything on a consistent scale, why not establish a denominator of 1000 innings?
That’s what I’ve done. I looked at every player-season since 2003 in which someone played at least 500 innings in the outfield. I calculated UZR arm per 1000 innings, and I calculated DRS arm per 1000 innings. I figured I should show them both, since they’re somewhat different. Davis, one more time, is shown here, highlighted.
By UZR arm, no one’s been worse. By DRS arm, no one’s been worse. Combine the two, and 2017 Khris Davis is at -13.3 arm runs per 1000 innings. That would be easily the worst in the sample, with the second-worst season belonging to 2013 Juan Pierre, at -9.7. Davis is taking this and running away with it.
Because the season hasn’t finished, Davis could recover. His arm could play better from here on out. But that’s likely to require some luck, since the arm isn’t good on its own. Davis seems to be having the worst arm season on recent record. It’s usually not the kind of thing you worry about, but in this particular case, it’s been costing the A’s actual runs. I don’t know what you do about it, given that Davis appears too good at running down flies to be a DH. This is just a part of the Oakland reality.
The one assist to 2017 Davis’ name? Jose Ramirez was the victim.
Ramirez lost track of the ball, and froze. Davis identified what was happening, and hit his cutoff. In one sense, it was a gimme assist. In another, was it, really?
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.


I’m glad you wrote this up because he always looked like he’s throwing grenades into the infield. I’m surprised Ellsbury isn’t bad enough to be on this list watching him through the years
Ellsbury’s got a pretty accurate arm—he’s able to bounce it to the cutoff guy. He’s never gonna cut a speedy runner down at home, but he can get it in to second in a way Khris Davis can’t. Davis’ lollipop throws just stick out like a sore thumb—I can’t help but laugh.
Bring back Johnny Damon!
It’s kind of amazing to me that a guy with such hitting power can also have such a poor throwing arm. I mean, the Juan Pierres and Ben Reveres I get.
I guess it’s just a reminder that all the different things baseball players have to do are separate skills, and, although they’re often correlated in predictable ways, there are no absolutes in this regard
He has such a weird looking swing, too. His homers never look like they’re going over the fence to me. I think he just has an insanely strong left shoulder and uses that to generate all the power in his swing. It really looks like his right shoulder is permanently injured.
I believe he injured his shoulder somehow, and that is the reason. I don’t remember the story though.
I bet there is some minor injury. I injured my shoulder throwing a softball more than 15 years ago now and to this day I can not throw a ball properly. It was diagnosed as a slightly torn rotator cuff. I’ve never done anything about it though because it doesn’t affect my ability to do anything except throw a ball (and my insurance refused). There is no perceptible pain or weakness for swinging a bat, or golf club, or while weight lifting. However, if I try to throw a ball normally using my whole arm I will get sharp pain in my shoulder and numbness down my right side. I became the Khris Davis of Binghamton beer league softball. I was an embarrassing combination of home runs and Johnny Damon throws.
More gifs!!
Seriously… my eyes need to fully internalize that damning scatter plot and what it means to live on that lonely island in the bottom left corner.
This is great! It would be really fun if that last chart was interactive too
I like the strong, on-the-line throw…to the shortstop cutting off 30 feet in front of him.
Also, ding that frontpage summary.
I think it’s just THAT WEAK. Found two articles about him “working hard” and putting tons of time in on technique and form (links below). Arm strength is just one of those natural things maybe? Would love to read more about, it’s rather astounding.
March 13th, 2017
http://www.csnbayarea.com/athletics/khris-davis-working-hard-improve-his-throwing-left
May 1st, 2015
http://archive.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/brewers-outfielder-davis-working-to-improve-his-throwing-b99492382z1-302263341.html/
As a die-hard Cubs fan living in Wisconsin a few years ago, I would often grab a few friends and head to Miller Park with a few Crew supporters. We sat in the LF bleachers, and two of them independently notified me that Khris Davis had the worst arm in MLB history. Having previously seen Johnny Damon play, I thought this a ludicrous assertion, but I was intrigued nonetheless, so I paid attention to him the rest of the game. Between innings, when OFs warm up by tossing a few balls to the other OFs or a bullpen catcher in foul territory, Davis would routinely miss two throws — at least — each time, either by launching it 20 feet over someone’s head or 3-hopping a 120-foot throw. It was kind of unbelievable to think a MLB outfielder could be that bad at an aspect of the game.
But that wasn’t even the best part. When the inning was about to start, and fans would clamor to Davis to throw them a fought-over souvenir, he would instead roll the ball toward the foul line where a team lackey would do the honors instead. I mean, the guy couldn’t even throw the ball into the stands from straightaway LF. I felt sorry for him. Something HAS to be permanently wrong with his right shoulder. No professional baseball player with his build could possibly be that terrible at throwing. It defies logic.
Last year he had an ARM rating of -1.8. Could he be injured?
Along with Joyce and Rajai/Brugman, Oakland fields terrible arms pretty much every game. Their defense overall is just atrocious: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=23,a
Before he was traded, the Brewers were talking about moving him to first base. I have no idea if he could handle first, but at least that arm can’t hurt the team as much there.
I think last year he was DHing most of the time, which is a good place for him, but with the amazing Ryon Healy playing 3rd base I think he’s had to take the field more often.
Lucas Duda says, “Hello!”
I think it was Glen Kuiper who said: “we can make fun of Billy Butler’s running speed, but he would still beat almost every viewer. Now, Khris Davis throwing arm, almost everyone would throw harder”. And then he went on with the throwing arm – home run paradox.
I’m pretty confident I can out run Billy Butler. My legs would be like stone afterwards and probably ache the day after, but I think someone who’s reasonably in shape should be able to outrun the slower players.
I remember a reporter on ESPN did a race with a lineman. The lineman beat him after giving him a small head start, but a younger man in good health can probably win that race.
Surely no discussion of outfield throwing is complete without this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCdp-pSA8kc
I love the commentary: “That is one of the strangest cutoffs you’ll ever see.” Yes. Yes it was.
Seriously, you spent how much time doing a bunch of charts, going back to 2003 just to throw Khris Davis can’t throw? Who doesn’t already know that for goodness sake. All you had to do was watch him.
Some people have other things to do than to watch baseball every day. In fact, I come to Fangraphs because I can only catch maybe one Red Sox game a week and hardly ever see a single highlight outside of the live action I see. I, for one, find these articles to be a huge reason why I know so much about the rest of the league.
Wow. He got behind the ball, set his feet, loaded up and did a crow hop and still threw the ball like 50 cent