Houston Actually Acquires Gerrit Cole This Time
Gerrit Cole was reportedly traded to the Astros earlier this week. I wrote about that hypothetical move in greater length here and why Cole might fit well with Houston.
I wrote earlier this offseason that the Pirates ought to trade Cole. The Pirates are re-tooling to some degree, while the Astros are a World Series contender that has been motivated to find a starting pitcher. It makes sense for both parties.
Well, the deal has apparently happened this time…
Source confirms: Colin Moran headed from #Astros to #Pirates. Joe Musgrove also in deal, per @TBrownYahoo.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 13, 2018
Source: RHP Michael Feliz also heading to the #Pirates in the Cole trade, along with Moran and Musgrove.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 13, 2018
Source: Outfielder Jason Martin is fourth player heading from #Astros to #Pirates for Gerrit Cole, along with Colin Moran, Joe Musgrove and Michael Feliz.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 13, 2018
While Cole has been an uneven performer since his fifth-place finish in NL Cy Young voting back in 2015, the quality of the return might be regarded as uneven in its own way.
The Pirates were unable to pry away Gleyber Torres from the Yankees in exchange for Cole. From Houston, they were ultimately unable to land a top prospect like right-handed pitcher Forrest Whitley or outfielder Kyle Tucker, either.
En route to Pittsburgh is former prospect Joe Musgrove, who has produced a 4.52 ERA/4.31 ERA in 171 major-league innings. Musgrove is accompanied by Michael Feliz, who has missed bats as a reliever but has a 5.12 ERA in 112 major-league innings, and Colin Moran, a borderline top-10 prospect in the Astors system.
The Pirates landed some useful assets, but they appeared to be unable to land a high-end impact prospect for their ace, their No. 1 pick from the 2011 draft. Cole has two years of club control remaining before entering free agency.
Colin Moran ranked 9th on Astros Top 10 Prospects list. Jason Martin was ranking 19th on Astros Top 30 in the soon to arrive Baseball America Prospect Handbook. https://t.co/k4qP5q9EE2
— JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) January 14, 2018
I like Musgrove and Feliz is a good bullpen arm the Pirates could try to out back in the rotation. That being said, what Astros are reported to give up would mean they gave up what are spare parts for them.
— JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) January 13, 2018
Jeff and Eno will have more on this deal in the following days. While it made sense for the Pirates to deal Cole this winter, this appears to be a favorable deal for Houston.
Cole has been an uneven performer, and there’s a chance the Astros get more out of him, get him to move away from his fastball. The Astros likely got better, acquiring a potential top-of-the-rotation arm without giving up a future significant asset.
A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.
Rumor was the Yankees were offering Frazier/Adams. The reporting on Cole has been sort of all over the place, so who knows what to believe. But you’d have to think that was never on the table.
Read from Heyman that the Pirates were insistent on Andujar
I thought he said that they wanted either Frazier OR Andujar. But again, the reporting in this whole saga has been inaccurate, so nobody really knows.
Yeah, they agreed to that supposedly, presumably after they backed off on Torres, it was the other pieces they did not agree on. But who knows
Sure, maybe initially. I am sure they were insistent on Houstons top prospects too. One kept at it, the other gave up on any deal. The team that didnt quit got the prize. Although it might be a prize not as nice as its packaging
Latest word is the Yankees were willing to give up Frazier or Adams and not both. They also wouldn’t discuss Andujar, or Sheffield, or Florial, and definitely not Torres.
So I’m a little surprised the Pirates couldn’t get more interest, or didn’t just take their ball and go home. But what this says about the Yankees is that they think Frazier (and likely Adams too) have no place to go at the major league level, are willing to shop them for an upgrade, but didn’t feel that starting pitching was a big enough need to include both.
At first glance, I think the Pirates would be better off holding Cole until the deadline. Even two years of Cole plus a compensation pick seems better than a deal headlined by Musgrove and Moran. People thought Frazier and Adams wasn’t enough? This is more like Tyler Wade and Domingo Acevedo. Crazy how 4 years of Ozuna and Cole lands 0 top 100 prospects.
I’m not sure this is what you meant, but 4 years of Ozuna and Cole would be something like the Cardinals’ whole farm system.
I’d also think it’s more like Miguel Andujar and Chad Green, but the overall point is well-taken, especially why they didn’t just hold Cole to let him rebuild value.
Because he’s 2 years away from free agency. He would need to demonstrate a very significant improvement in order to be worth more next offseason than he is now, as you’d be dealing with half the period of team control. I suppose you can look at it and say that the Pirates, the team who presumably know him best, do not feel it is all that likely for him to show himself to be an ace in the next year.
Is that really so farfetched? And isn’t that saquonthegoat’s point too?
This last year was easily his worst in the majors and he’s still young, plus you’d pay deadline premiums.
Cole’s value isn’t based solely on his last year. Very unlikely he improves his value by enough to cover losing half a year even with deadline premiums. Weird thing is what Pirates accepted. I think they’ll probably get a comparable value in WAR, but it is just spread out over some many years and players. I doubt Pirates get much WAR out of this deal in a year that they make or just miss the playoffs. Pirates would have been better off asking for low level, high risk prospects like Nova or Celestino.
So, what players will be most affected by this trade? I would think Peacock will be pushed back into a multi inning relief role for Houston.
Maybe for a month or two to start the season. I would bet that he still gets at least 15 starts this season. All five rotation members staying totally healthy for an entire season at a time never happens.
Well, except for that 2003 Mariners team where the five starters in the opening day rotation started every game of the season. Not that that’s any kind of recipe for success, of course.
I think the Pirates got more in return than what it looks on the surface. Feliz and Moran were both more highly touted prospects in the past and definitely have talent to succeed. Musgrove really improved when put in the bullpen and can be a solid 4-5 inning starter type going forward. That said still seems like a light return for Cole, especially cause his stuff is better than his results so there’s still upside. Given how much teams value starting pitching I’m shocked no one else was matching this group.
From the Astros standpoint this is a no-brainer. They upgrade Musgrove to Cole by trading away two players who are unlikely to ever make the team. Even if Cole is just a 3-win pitcher the next two years they’ll still easily take that.
There has to be number of teams wondering why they didn’t call about Cole. You hear names like Torres, Frazier, Fisher and Whitley and you end up with Musgrove
This might hint more so at the superteam effect on the market than anything else. The fact that only the Yankees and the Astros were connected to Cole seems to suggest the .500 teams weren’t even calling.
Also I think the Pirates may like Musgrove more than your typical fan. He’s a guy who throw strikes and has already established himself as a decent pitcher (was lights out in the bullpen for half a season actually) for long term cost control. They probably think he has a good chance to be an average starter for them.
I agree on the .500 teams. Still, you would think that Pittsburgh could have gotten teams like LAD and STL interested at this bargain basement price.
Torres wasn’t a serious link though, Whitley or Fisher also unrealistic from the start.
Frazier is perhaps a realistic link, but he doesn’t belong with Torres et al.
Musgrove is a young, healthy #4 with 4 or 5 years of control left: 171 career IP with 8.0 K, 2.3 BB, and 1.4 HR per 9. Cole last year was 200 IP, 8.7 K, 2.4 BB, and 1.4 HR per 9.
LAD could have matched this offer with something like Stewart, Baez, Smith and Peters. What the hell.
This seems baffling from PIT’s end unless Cole has an undisclosed medical condition or something
By most accounts he has a condition known as “straight, hittable fastball”.
Apparently the pirates think keeping him would only result in a lower payoff later. As is, they got three Mlb-ready players. I suspect there’s more trades coming now. Harrison for one.
Houston is betting they can get more out of him than they got out of Musgrove. It’s a good bet for them because it won’t hurt much if they lose it.
Based on his 2nd half I wouldn’t be surprised to see him on the DL by midseason. Surely the Astros will do a medical review or even a physical, but they wont always tell much if the patient is not cooperative and say ouch when it hurts.
Musgrove has been worth around 2 fWAR in what equals out to be about a season’s worth of innings. Turning two years of Cole into five years of Musgrove plus a ML ready infielder, a ML quality reliever (1.2 fWAR in two seasons, which puts him middle of the pack in most bullpens), and a minor league lottery ticket seems like a really good move overall to me. It’s essentially treading water, while getting younger and cheaper.
Compared to what, say, Miami got back for Ozuna’s two seasons and this looks awesome for the Pirates. Which isn’t to say it isn’t awesome for the Astros; it definitely is great for them. But this feels like a win for both teams to me.
IMO does look a decent deal for Pirates, not sure why author feels differently other than prospect rankings and narrative.
Moran projects for 1.5 fWAR per 600 PA next season. 4 years of control, if he puts up 6 fWAR in those seasons, his surplus value would be around $40m-50m depending on arbitration. He already projects as a top 35 or so 3B in the game, I think he’s being underrated in early reactions.
Martin seems like a typical data-savvy, underrated player- i.e. small, capable defender (maybe CF) and baserunner, tapping into power (.263 ISO 20 HRs at AA as 21 year old last year, .208 ISO and 18 HRs at A+/AA this year) that scouts overlook (as a hitter, Eric notes only his solid bat to ball skills) due to size. KATOH projects 1.9 fWAR over 6 years of control- so another $10m or so surplus, deducting for wages. If he had made someone’s top 100 list, would that really change the deal much?
I’d guess that Pittsburgh will initially try both Musgrove and Felix as SPs.
Mosgrove has posted xFIP of 4.04 and 4.03 the past two seasons- Cole 4.02 an 3.81. Cole’s projection going forward is much better, in part due to his 2015. As a starter Musgrove projects around 2.0 fWAR, so for 4 seasons that’s another $40m surplus. Does he have 4 or 5 years of cost control left- over 50 IPs in ’16 so I’d think 4, but above comment seems informed and mentions 5. Four years of a #4 (i.e. 2 WAR) in exchange for 2 years of a #2 (i.e. 4 WAR) is not a terrible baseline for a trade.
Felix has a .340 career BABIP allowed, posting FIPs of 3.24 and 3.78, and has posted positive pitch values for his fastball and changeup- and nearly a break even slider. Despite great whiff totals in the bullpen he might get another go at SP- having almost exclusively pitched as a SP through 6 minor league seasons. He doesn’t currently project for much surplus value, but has 4 more years of control.
Cole projects for 3.8 fWAR, so for two seasons around $9m or so that he’ll average (if he posts near 4 WAR this year, I assume 11m+ next yer)- so that’s around $60m surplus.
Seems fairly even, best player to the contender to consolidate surprlus value, but more ($20m or so) total value to the rebuilding team. Some upside if Houston gets more Ks out of Cole, some downside for them if he is in decline and HR problems are real. Some upside for Pittsburgh with Felix, and potentially 4 low-floor average regulars on their MLB roster this year and for at least 3 years going forward.
Adams and Frazier seem quite overrated by some of these comments. Adams obviously is a ‘minor league ERA bet’ with discouraging FIP issues due to mediocre K:BBs. Frazier projects for 0.4 fWAR per 600 PA, with serious OBP and contact issues, and very poor early numbers defensively.
Not sure why ppl think Frazier is some star in the making
Well said. Neal Huntington is pretty vocal about the value of pre-arb + low-arb players, and rightfully so. A bunch of role players on pre-arb salaries are an essential piece of a competitive pirates team – they can’t afford Josh Reddick, Carlos Beltran, etc to fill out a roster.
The current Pirates lack the top-end talent too, but the only way Cole was going to help that was if he found his juju and became a Real Ace they could flip at the deadline. Maybe that would be better, but you’re taking a chance that (1) Cole doesn’t crash and burn, (2) a competitive team gives up a haul at the deadline (not always the case) and (3) Cole takes a big step forward and looks more like 2015. Considering how badly that backfired on them with McCutchen I can see why Huntington was ready to get a whole bunch of value in return even if it isn’t top-end guys. This sets them up perfectly for a rebuild while not destroying their wildcard chances. It’s not the worst way to cash in their chips.
I follow them pretty closely and I see them using Feliz as a set up guy for Rivero, we don’t really have a good one (Hudson?ew) and we’d still have Taillon, Nova, Kuhl, Musgrove, and Williams, Glasnow and Brault to compete for the rotation.
Just a small note on your comment: I’m pretty sure Moran has 6 years of control.
To be fair, saying “this deal is better than what the Marlins did” is a low bar to clear these days.
I would think that this is more of a big win for Houston, and a below-average deal for Pittsburgh.
It’s not about whether they received equal value, it’s about whether they could have gotten more value from a different bidder. If the rumor about the Yankees offering a package headlined by either Andujar or Frazier are true, it seems likely that Pittsburgh just picked the wrong deal. And with an asset with as broad appeal as Cole, they should have been able to get more than two teams seriously interested.
There were a lot of red flags with Cole. Rising home run rate, going from PNC and facing the pitcher to the AL East and with their lineups and hitter friendly parks (Minute Maid will not help) and the DH, trading Frazier, Adams + seemed unwise. But Musgrove, Moran (25 year old not even top 100) and 2 other low guys is insanely low. It’s an amazing deal for the Astros and for that price who wouldn’t want Cole? So I don’t think fans were wrong to be wary of him at his expected price of a Sonny Gray type package. If the Astros included Tucker or Whitley people would be laughing at them right now. But this deal has almost 0 risk for 2 years of a potential 2-3. If he sucks, it was Musgrove and Moran!
I’m surprised other teams didn’t beat this deal. Phillies want to get better to possibly attract Harper/Machado? They could’ve done this deal easily. Angels/Twins/Rangers could’ve beat this deal without thinking twice. The Mets could’ve beaten this deal.
As I wrote in the other Cole thread, the Sonny Gray package includes guys like Bukauskas and Alvarez rather than Top-10 prospects like Torres, Whitley, or Tucker (which were obviously never on the table for Cole). Musgrove was a Top-40 prospect a year ago. So maybe the Pirates want guys that are ML-ready now (including Moran) as opposed to guys who still need 2 more years in the minors.
Here is what confuses me. If this deal was made 1 or 2 years ago with the exact same names people would of thought the Pirates won the trade. I don’t buy Cole being a front of the rotation guy. I like the pirates side, honestly
If the Pirates made this deal when Cole was coming off a 5.5-WAR season and Colin Moran was just a post-hype prospect in AA, I’m pretty sure Pirates fans would have burned down the ballpark.
carter is talking about the value of Musgrove, the deal’s headliner, whom you are selling short. The Pirates obviously think he’s more like the KATOH #46 prospect in the game from July 2016 than his so-so rookie year and like him better than Bukauskas and Alvarez. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-improved-katoh-top-100-list/
I suppose the Pirates couldn’t get Frances Martes instead of Moran or maybe they preferred Moran to Martes.
Musgrove wasn’t on BA’s Top 100 list last year, not Eric’s, not John Sickels’. And if we’re picking an arbitrary point from the most contrarian list out there (which I love, FWIW) to demonstrate Musgrove’s value, it’s worth noting that Cole would have been traded at the deadline at that point (which would have fetched a huge premium) and was still pitching like a #2 despite having a bunch of injuries.
Fair point, maybe my memory of Musgrove’s prospect standing is incorrect. I’m growing skeptical of KATOH anyway since it rated several Rule 5 guys ahead of Top-30 prospects like Mitch Keller and none of those Rule 5 guys wound up being selected.
I agree that Pittsburgh’s return was short of Sonny Gray’s since I saw Moran as the 3rd piece in such a deal not the 2nd piece. Jerry Crasnick is saying that the Astros wouldn’t part with Fisher or Alvarez (how about Martes?) and the Yankees would only give Frazier OR Adams not both and wouldn’t part with Florial, Andujar, or Sheffield. I guess Jon in the other Cole thread was correct in saying that Cole isn’t worth the Sonny Gray package after all.
KATOH is great. It hits on all sorts of players who get no love elsewhere. That said I’m pretty confident that while most teams have something like it, KATOH is a much worse measure of overall prospect standing than BA.
The bigger point is that Musgrove popped up on all of those lists right before he was promoted. Houston had a very short window to deal him as a top 100 guy. He wasn’t considered that until right before his promotion and his struggles in the rotation cast some doubt on that ranking now.
Generally speaking I think it is a good idea to buy low on guys like Musgrove but my problem with this is that it isn’t buying low.
Musgrove was not a rookie in 2017, having pitched 62 innings in 10 starts and one relief appearance for the Astros in 2016. Therefore he was presumably not eligible for any of those lists. At midseason 2016 (the last lists for which he was eligible) he was #32 on BA’s list and #34 on Sickels’. Also worth noting that while he was #46 by KATOH in the July 2016 post referenced by Shalesh above, he was #28 by KATOH+.
After 2015 they get much more. Two additional years control. Pre-injury. Getting injured in 2016 and a poor 2017 that ate up 2 years of control and his value has dropped. Especially the poor 2nd half is a red flag to many as was Pirates eagerness to unload for what in the end turned out to be not much. Thats telling in itself. If you were confident he is healthy try again at the TD after a stellar-1st half inflates his value. Maybe they know its unlikely
Mateo, Fowler and Kaprealian were all top 100 prospects although the latter 2 were on the DL. Assuming full recovery they should all be contributing to the A’s by 2019 or even earlier with significant upside
This makes sense. I think another implication of this trade is that McCutchen and Harrison are also likely to get traded for players who are already in MLB, and that Pitt will hold onto Rivero, Taillon, etc.
Word is Cutch is going to SF. It should be interesting to see how the players/cash terms play out.
Ok, but every pitcher that the Astros would have thrown out there has to deal with quality of opponents and a harder ballpark. Are you saying that these conditions affect Cole more than the average pitcher?
Angels? Mets? If the Halos traded for Cole, their farm would be… bad?
With free agents prices falling so much, does this hurt team selling? What a team thinks about the surplus on the players it gives up for Cole there is the price tag, X dollars. If free agent prices are falling they are now thinking why give up that surplus and instead use that money on a free agent that buys more? IF so, then their willingness to pay for cole decreases.
$/WAR hasn’t fallen at all on the FA market
Who who has got 8-9 million $/WAR on the market besides RPers where WAR understates their value and is not very accurate?
I would say its certain deflating and rapidly when adjusted for revenue inflation, and even in nominal terms it seems pretty stagnant the past couple of years
I have been consistently confused why every writer on this site seems to just unquestioningly take $9m/WAR as the standard FA player valuation at face value. Not even close to half of all FAs over the past year or two have signed for that value. It’s like people took one outlier contract (I can’t even think of who this might be off the top of my head) and decided that the absolute top of the market deal should set the baseline for the entire market. The worst part is that this $9m/WAR figure is included in almost every article on here that attempts to measure free agent values. You can make every free agent in baseball look like a massive bargain if you use a stupidly inflated number like that, when it’s pretty obvious to most analytically-minded baseball fans that the majority of free agent contracts are nothing near “bargains” for the team.
So that number comes from a series by Matt Swartz. If you go back and read it, it becomes apparent that the dollars per win number is used all wrong. That isn’t what teams expect to pay, it is what they actually got! The number is inflated by the number of busts on the free agent market.
Rather than showing that nine million a win is a good deal, what this actually shows is how inefficient free agency really is for teams.
@Paul22:
Jay Bruce signed a 3 year / $39 million deal with an ~1 WAR Steamer projection for 2018 and at an age (31 in April) where he should be expected to decline at least 0.5 WAR per year. Based on Steamer’s projection, it’s an absurdly high contract of paying $39 million for less than 2 WAR. Even if you’re way more optimistic than Steamer and start Bruce at 2 WAR per year, standard math (0.5 WAR decline per year, 5% annual salary inflation) gets to a value of ~$8.4 million WAR for his contract.
Carlos Santana signed for 3 / $60 million with a 2.6 WAR Steamer projection for 2018. Use the same standard aging curve and salary inflation and that gets to a value of just over $9 million WAR for his contract.
So those are the two biggest position player contracts signed this off-season (excluding Upton’s extension) and they both back into $/WAR of at least $8 to $9 million, if not higher.
The third biggest (Cozart) would back into a far lower $/WAR number (~$4 million) based on his 3/$38 contract and Steamer’s 3.5 WAR projection for him in 2018. One can also understand why teams are reluctant to pay up for that Steamer projection, however. Prior to his 5 WAR 2017, Cozart had two seasons with 2.3 to 2.5 WAR and three seasons with 1.2 to 1.8 WAR. I could see a team talking itself into paying more than 3/$38 for a 32 year old Cozart, but I understand not accepting (and paying for) a median view that 2018 will be Cozart’s 2nd best year in the majors and about a full win better than his 3rd best year.
So this probably pushes Peacock to the bullpen?
Subtext: this takes a major contender out of the Darvish bidding.
Money on the Twins now unless the Cubs get serious or Dodgers/Yankees throw caution to the wind re: the luxury tax.
Why would this take Houston out of Darvish bidding? Cole makes $7m and projects as a near-#2, a #3 on a top contender. Cole has pitched for 5 seasons, posting 3.1 WAR or less in 4 of them including the two most recent.
Astros just traded away 15 Musgrove starts and about 50 Felix IP. The returning SP with the most starts from 17 is Charlie Morton with 25. There is plenty of reason to still want Darvish at the right price.
Because they have Verlander, Keuchel, Cole, McCullers, Morton, and McHugh for five spots already. Plus they have a guy who might be able to fill in with Armenteros, and maybe they still think Paulino can start (although he’s probably a bullpen guy at this point). And Peacock, who was pretty good as a starter too.
I suppose they could sign Darvish anyway, have Cole as the #4 starter, and have McCullers, Morton, and McHugh battle it out for #5. That would be a pretty epic rotation, but also kind of overkill. They should probably just take that money and try to extend someone instead.
Yea apologies, blanked on Verlander- thought could still argue that Houston might not see their rotation as 5 slots. McHugh likely on the edge of things either way imo.
And on top of all that, they might have a virtual clone of Darvish ready to join the rotation as soon as 2019 in the form of Forrest Whitley.
They probably lose Keuchel to free agency next year and Cole the year after , and might be planning ahead. Darvish would be acquired for more than 2018
Verlander had more than 30. Just because it wasn’t all with the Astros is meaningless.
Also, I love the acquisition of Moran. I would put money on the Pirates breaking even on losing Cole’s WAR from Moran alone (admittedly he has some six years to do it vs two). Plus they got all the other guys.
I like Cole, But his velo is down and he can’t hold a runner to save his life. Still a good get for the Stros.
Where do you see that his velo is down? Looks up on his FG page. Baseball Savant shows it down slightly but overall steady the past few years.
I think the big knock on Cole is that his straighter stuff gets hit hard by lefties.
That being said while this is a good deal for Houston I don’t think it’s a total steal.
I think lot of folks have assumed the Pirates need to – and will – rebuild. But Huntington emphasized that three of the four players they got back aren’t just for the future, but will help the team win in 2018. Getting back major league ready depth over one awesome prospect a couple years away makes sense if the Pirates think they can fight for a Wild Card next year. And looking at some of the terrible teams in the league, it isn’t hard to see why they think that – you have to finish top 5 in a 15 team league, and out of those 15, you have at least five (SD, Cincinnati, Miami, Philly, San Fran) who are nowhere close. So, Pittsburgh has to be thinking about what it takes to finish ahead of three or four of Colorado/Arizona/New York/Milwaukee/St. Louis.
This deal keeps them in the conversation, if nothing else. Looking at 2018-19, it’s probably a wash in the projections, or close to it (a win or two). It definitely makes sense if they’re not blowing things up.
The Giants are projected to win 81 games, Phillies and Braves are projected to win 75 and 74 games. Brewers only at 73 at the moment.
Pirates likely to still be 80 or 81 projected wins after this trade, but hard to say Phillies, Braves or Giants are nowhere close.
Well, okay. I undersold the Giants but also forgot Atlanta and oversold the Brewers so the point remains. A team like the Pirates is good enough, in a league where 40% of the teams aren’t in contention from day one, to not just punt next season. This trade serves the purpose of saving money and getting something for Cole, while keeping them in contention. That sounds like a win to me.
So I basically agree with everyone else here so far. I didn’t like this deal when the rumors had either Whitley or Tucker leaving, but this is a no-brainer deal for the Astros. Two years of a guy who last year was a #3, three years ago was one of the very best pitchers in the league, still averages a fastball in the mid-90s, and is only 27? For a likely FV50 guy (Moran), a guy who failed as a starter (Musgrove), a reliever project (Feliz), and a guy who wasn’t protected in the Rule 5 (Martin)? You make this deal every time if you have a window of contention. Conversely, this raises all kinds of questions why the Pirates made that deal. What made them so eager to deal Cole now, when his stock was clearly low and this was the return?
There’s still something like 100 things to unpack here, though.
1) Moran is probably one of the most polarizing prospects in baseball and has been for a while. Some teams think he’s a guaranteed bust, others (mostly saber-heavy teams like the Astros and Pirates) think he’s outstanding. Kiley covered some of that in his first stint here, and I’d love to see him weigh in on what has or hasn’t changed.
2) Joe Musgrove isn’t a premium piece by any means but I think he’s a great fit for the Pirates. He’s got the potential to be the groundball pitcher the Pirates want, and do it well. And Ray Searage is arguably the greatest pitching coach in baseball, so I like him to squeeze more out of Musgrove than he would in Houston.
3) But if Searage is so good, why couldn’t Searage get Cole back to where he was before? Travis touched on this in his article before, but I wonder whether they thought they had tried everything with Cole and wanted to sell on him now before other teams figured that out.
4) I don’t think the Pirates liked Frazier that much. I wondered how Frazier’s power would play in that stadium…he’s weird because he goes the opposite way a lot, and so he’s great for a place that’s normally good for lefties like Yankee Stadium. But that might not play quite as well in Pittsburgh.
But even then, you would think Frazier would be that much of a better prospect than Moran that they would have taken that deal. I wonder whether Frazier’s stock is down more generally. I would think that is a mistake, since he’s had less than 150 PAs in the majors, but it’s possible. This is something I’m curious about…whether Frazier’s stock is down around the league or if the Pirates just really blew it.
IMO there’s a question whether Cole was ever what the public thought he was.
He had the frame (6’4″, 225) and velocity (high 90s) to suggest a power pitcher and “ace,” as the caption in the article photo above calls him. But he never got Ks, and really only peaked as a grounder/control/limit HRs pitcher during the strange deadball era from a few years back.
None of his pitches have ever had sustained great value- his FB and SL rate as his best career pitches. His career wFB pitch value is 34.2, all but 10.0 of which came in 2015. His career wSL value is 8.2, all of 0.6 of which came in 2015. His curveball and change have rated about average. His triple slash in 2015 was 8.7K, 1.9BB, 0.50 HR: is that really the pitcher the public thought it was seeing, a soft contact/control artist? I myself figured he was striking out more than that until his K rates became more of a public discussion point this offseason.
Cole was out with injury during the HR acceleration during the 2nd half of 2016- so his 16 HR rates are still low, but not tested in the current HR environment. He’s only topped 140 IP twice at turns 28 in September. Cole was very good in 2015, the 9th most WAR at SP- but David Price was 3rd at 6.5 and Matt Harvey 16th at 4.4.
I think the Pirates realize that the mini-deadball era of ’13 through the first part of 16 was the oddity- HRs rising continuously has been the steady trendy since the PED explosion. Cole as a good #2 or better may be a product of the unique mini deadball era from a couple years ago that the Pirates might be betting won’t come back.
Explains why they wanted to unload him before the season started so badly
Cole’s performed either like a #2 or #1 for basically the whole time except last year.
His problem, up until this year, was that he has been hurt. If you want to attribute his struggles this year to the era I suppose that’s reasonable, but we’re lacking in counterfactuals since his entire career was basically during that era.
Maybe they think his skillset is more like Jordan Zimmermann-esque and consequently he’s on the verge of a collapse (though he has more velocity than ZNN ever did)
The Astros rotation looks really scary at this point. Love the move to load up. The Pirates didn’t get anyone elite in return, but two viable MLB arms with some success already, Moran could be a good MLB player, but Martin is the Wild Card here. That guy has TOOLS for days (power, speed, average) and he seems to actually value plate discipline. Struggled a little at AA (age 22) but still hit for plenty of power. If he puts it together, he might end up the best player in this package.
Does he have tools? My guess is that he is seen as having poor tools but has the production you mention, perhaps with sneaky tools. I’m really curious why he wasn’t protected for the Rule 5 or chosen.
I see a Milwaukee Locals Baseball Prospectus write up that say he could have ‘average or better’ for five tools, it mentions a contact swing and spraying the ball. I think such terms might be a little light for someone over .200 ISO at 21(A+) and 22 (AA). Similarly Eric mentions bat-to-ball skills- not wrong at all- but just phrasing that I associated with .160 ISO guys more than .210. If he can play a legit CF, how in the world did he go unclaimed?
Is it rare for an unprotected player to get traded a few weeks after the Rule 5 draft? Does Martin’s trade right after the draft suggest that Houston was going to take him in the draft, but perhaps was already well along on this deal and didn’t want to use the 40-man spot? Why did so many other teams pass?
I wonder if this is a classic ‘scouts view vs. data view’ trade- not so much between like-minded Houston and Pittsburgh, but in the public view. I could be wrong, but the public seems to view Cole as a power pitcher not a soft-contact/control guy who hasn’t avoided HRs since before the late ’16 boom. Musgrove, Moran and Martin all seem to have moderate tools and scouting that trail production.
Similarly, imo the comparison to a package of Frazier and Adams also plays on scout v data perspectives in the same direction: Adams being ERA-driven, and Frazier having defense/plate control issues, with maybe a touch of Yankee-golden boy hype.
Not wishing to be rude, but do you understand the Rule 5 concept? I haven’t checked whether Martin was eligible this year at his age, but nothing in his profile suggests he is 2018 MLB ready, so no way he would stick on a 25 man roster.
It’s not outrageously rare for players entering their age-23 season skip from AA to MLB. He projects for +0.2 WAR per 600 PA, so wouldn’t push the boundaries quite as far as SD has sometimes done stashing Rule 5 guys.
He reminds me of Kole Calhoun. Jack of all trades, master of none. Average discipline, decent enough power, decent contact skills, good corner outfield defense, not a lot of physicality to project more power. Could be a good 3-win player pretty soon.
Agreed James123,Frazier/Adams does seem like a better deal.
Seems like teams don’t want to bet on one good prospect but get a whole bunch of “maybes” in the hopes that quantity will overwhelm quality.
Seems like Cole should have gotten one really good piece
It depends on the team.
If you’re doing a full teardown you go the Atlanta road and trade for young high ceilings.
If you are reloading to remain respectable/competitive you go mlb-ready.
The latter road is harder because mlb-ready players are immediately useful to both teams and few teams have the depth to cough them up and still be deep enough to survive a full 162 game season.
The pirates still have enough controllable talent that a teardown isn’t the only way to go and maybe the interest in Torres/Frazier wasn’t necessarily their pedigree but rather readiness to suit up right away.
Pure speculation: let’s say the pirates move Harrison and Cutch and have enough room to sign Darvish. Meadows gets his shot. If he doesn’t take off, Martin gets a shot next year.
Smaller market teams need to be creative and hope they get lucky once in a while.
It seems the Pirates could have gotten a better blue chip prospect by waiting and maybe moving Cole at the deadline, but there is always the risk he gets hurt. They probably know the risk better than anyone else.
Forget expectations about what trading a player “should” fetch and just look at what the Pirates get, Musgrove and Feliz both look like players that the Pirates have traditionally gotten production from. I think there’s a realistic possibility that the pair combine produce more value than Gerrit Cole before Cole hits free agency, though I certainly won’t EXPECT it.
I’m not convinced about either of the position player gets. The Pirates continue to suffer from a chronic lack of power since they lost Kang, and the inevitable Cutch trade isn’t going to help. It does fill a need for 3B depth and a platoon mate for Freese.
The Pirates probably weren’t high on Frazier and preferred a more diversified portfolio with less risk (two young players who have seen substantial MLB time). I liked Melancon for Rivero more than most at the time, and I probably like this deal more for the Pirates than most.
Houston can’t lose this deal, because they don’t have much use for anything they traded, but that doesn’t mean the Pirates can’t win as well.
“Forget expectations about what trading a player “should” fetch”
Why? This is the only question that matters: Cole’s perceived value.
Because the Pirates are more likely to be better off making this deal than not making it, and I think they are more likely to end up better off making this deal than making one for Frazier.
Perceived by whom? By the public, who remember him as the former first overall pick and top prospect who was a Cy Young contender in 2015? Or by projection systems such as Steamer, which projects him to be the same league-average starter in 2018 that he was in 2017? (And which also projects Joe Musgrove to have a better ERA and FIP and more WAR than Cole, for about $6M less in salary?) Major league teams, who should be interested only in the future and not the past, should value him more like the latter than the former.
I don’t buy that this is a lopsided trade. Don’t get me wrong, this is a great move for the Astros. With such a deep roster and farm system, they wanted to consolidate talent. But I also see it as a win-win trade. The Pirates maybe would have instead preferred a similarly-valued return but in the form of one elite prospect, but there’s no reason to believe that was on the table. They also get a lot of use out of minimum-salaried average players. By Surplus Value, I bet the Pirates end up the winner in this one. Cole might be worth 7 wins over the next two years, but the Pirates very well might get 7 wins just out of the pre-arb years of their side.
I find this move very similar to the Ozuna trade. Alcantara, Sierra, and Gallen were nice pieces, but they were at the bottom of the Cards’ depth chart. Their opportunities would be limited in St. Louis. The Marlins on the other hand needed some soon-to-be cromulent MLB players making the minimum to plug-in so they can get payroll down while not being too horrible. It’s really easy to see how these moves are great for the Astros and Cardinals but the Marlins and Pirates aren’t getting swindled here.
If Musgrave is a 2 WAR player, Feliz is a 0.5 WAR player and Moran is a 1 WAR player, the Pirates get 7 WAR before Cole hits free agency.
Spread out over three roster spots.
The Pirates aren’t at a point where they have to worry about that sort of thing. The Astros were. The Pirates probably end up with more surplus value, and get only very marginally worse in the near term while cutting payroll and gaining a lot of cheap future control. The Astros took 4 players that weren’t going to get many opportunities in their deep org and consolidated them into one nice short-term upgrade with upside. Looks like a pretty clear win-win to me.
It’s a win-meh.
This is the product of a flawed decision-making process. Once a team decides they’re definitely trading a player, they lose most of their leverage and almost always wind up with a poor return. We saw that in this trade, in the Giancarlo Stanton trade this winter, and even last fall when the Pirates gave up Juan Nicasio for literally nothing. There should have been no urgency to make this deal today unless the Pirates got an overwhelming offer, or at least a top 100 prospect.
Yeah, those aren’t even close to comparable. The Marlins had no leverage because Stanton had a no trade clause and wanted to control his destination, and the Pirates had no leverage because they were well past the non-waiver trade deadline.
The Pirates held plenty of leverage because, unlike the other examples, they had a free market of suitors available.
i’m a native houstonian & am happy to have cole….w/ that said, i’m sure the pirates will be much criticized, but the return for them is pretty damn nice…not too shabby
Gerrit Cole is not a top of the rotation arm
now, a good team wants a relyable starter providing 25+ starts and they want to win 7 out of 10. a mediocre team buys a TOP OF THE ROTATION ARM and looses half of the games anyway. and they deserve it.
Is moran really a prospect anymore? He is 25 years old. He makes contact and actually dramatically lowered his gb rate but the problem is he can’t play short or second and for a 3b his bat is a little light.
Of course a mlb bench bat is still valuable but the upside is really limited.
IMO, this is underselling the return a little bit. Fair to say they didn’t get a top PROSPECT, but Musgrove, Moran, and Feliz were all Top 100 prospects. Musgrove and Feliz both fell off the list due to ML playing time, not because scouts evaluated them worse (like Moran). And it’s been reported that Moran has changed his swing, which added a boat load of power. He’s probably an instant upgrade, and a significant one, over David Freese right now. Martin’s no slouch prospect either. PROBABLY a bench outfielder, but a good one, with good defense, speed, and pop. He’s always been young for his league, and he has always been a well-above average offensive player.
Viewed with a different lens, the Pirates got three immediate useful players who were all Top Prospects and retain plenty of upside.
Not mentioned: There’s a small but non-zero chance that either Musgrove or Feliz could be better over the next couple years in the Pirates’ rotation than Cole will be in the Astros’. Cole has been only average to slightly above for the last two seasons, and Musgrove and Feliz are just coming into their own in the majors, but have already seen success.
FanGraphs’ 2018 DepthCharts:
Musgrove – 2.7 WAR
Cole – 2.6 WAR
Getting a starting caliber-ish 3B and even 2 quality relievers for multiple years of pre-arbitration control is valuable to a team with a small budget and the Pirates haven’t completely punted themselves from lucking into a wild-card spot.
Rivero, Musgrove, Feliz, and Burdi could from a hellacious back-end of a bullpen.
is it unreasonable to see Moran as a 2-3 WAR guy, Musgrove as a really good reliever, and Feliz as a guy who is a Searage adjustment from becoming a really good reliver?
All those guys at pre-arb salary? for two years of a 3-4 WAR Cole at… say… 7 and 13 million?
I mean i wanted them to get Whitley as much as the next guy, but I kinda like that return…
It’s not about what they got, it’s about what they could have and should have gotten. From the Yankees. Or any of the numerous teams (ATL, PHI, MIN, ARI, COL, SF, SEA, LAD, etc. etc.) that they for some reason did not engage seriously in trade talks even though they are begging for high-upside, relatively cheap SP talent.
To be fair, the D-Backs and Mariners and Giants couldn’t even offer much more than what the Pirates got, the Twins and Phillies and Braves are still hoarding prospects, and the Rockies/Dodgers don’t have much room in their rotation unless Cole turns back into what he was before.
I still think they just should have held him and waited for injuries to start up, but there are not a ton of buyers at the exact moment.
what in the world makes you think the pirates weren’t engaging with the entire league? cole was conspicuously available, and I’m sure they had conversations with every interested team. they felt that houston’s offer was the best they had, and worth doing rather than waiting.
99 times out of a 100, when a player gets less than the public expects, it’s because the industry doesn’t value him as much as the public expects.
For what it’s worth, Musgrove’s projections are slightly *better* than Cole’s for 2018. And I’m not sure if they take account his move to the NL.
I think Cole’s going to have a rough time in the AL, and there’s a decent chance that Musgrove out-pitches him for a fraction of the cost. Then there are the others that the Pirates acquired as well.
My gut reaction was that the Pirates should have gotten more. But after really thinking about it, it seems like they went for the safer guy without the big name, and I think they’ll be better for it. I don’t see it as a rebuild – more of a retool.
In the last year, Colin Moran made some pretty dramatic changes to his swing that produced a much better launch angle and correspondingly more fly-balls without sacrificing his contact. He’s not the slap hitter his earlier seasons would suggest.