How Adeiny Hechavarria Is Interesting
The Tampa Bay Rays are 40-38. Now, that isn’t fantastically good. The Rays are not fantastically good. But that record is good enough to sit just 2.5 games back in the American League East. That record is also good enough to sit just one single game back in the AL wild-card hunt. The Rays right now are playing through the absence of Kevin Kiermaier, but they’re very much competitive, and very much capable of winning another 45 or so times. So the Rays are interested in getting better today.
Enter Adeiny Hechavarria! Rumors started to swirl before the weekend that the Marlins wanted to ship Hechavarria to somebody else. It will not surprise you that the motivating factor here was shedding the salary. The Rays are picking up the salary, and also the player.
Deal is done: Hechavarria to Rays for two minor-leaguers, outfielder Braxton Lee and RHP Ethan Clark.
— clarkspencer (@clarkspencer) June 26, 2017
Braxton Lee is a talented baseball player, and I have nothing against him. Nor do I have anything against Ethan Clark, another talented baseball player. But the people who are supposed to know these things don’t think either one of those players will develop into an impact big-leaguer. We’ll see. Both these teams understand this is mostly a salary dump. The Marlins could get a lucky break, but for now, Hechavarria is the guy to talk about.
Let’s do that. He’s 28, and coming off a strained oblique. Although he’s been around for years, his career WAR is 1.7. If you know anything about Hechavarria, and you’re also a FanGraphs reader, you know the numbers have seldom liked him. But! Something did turn around for him a few seasons back. The Marlins always talked up Hechavarria’s raw defensive talent. In 2015, that talent turned into results. The performance kept up into 2016. Since the start of the 2015 season, 37 shortstops have played the position for at least 1,000 innings. Hechavarria’s been the seventh-best defender by DRS, and the fifth-best defender by UZR. He’s become a plus glove, and that’s the major reason why the Rays had interest here in the first place.
Yet Hechavarria has a career wRC+ of 70. To make matters worse, between his last two full seasons, he dropped from 87 to 56. His WAR, therefore, dropped from 3.1 to 0.4. One of those is good! One of those is not good. You could easily interpret him as a declining asset.
Here’s where Hechavarria gets kind of interesting. I mean, the defensive stuff is already interesting, but here’s what makes him more interesting still. Even in 2015, Hechavarria didn’t qualify as a good hitter. Then, by his results, his numbers tanked. But Baseball Savant also now hosts an expected wOBA statistic, based on Statcast inputs. In 2015, Hechavarria topped his expected wOBA by 26 points, which was one of the bigger gaps in the majors. Then, in 2016, Hechavarria undershot his expected wOBA by 30 points, which was one of the bigger gaps in the majors in the other direction. According to Statcast, 2016 Hechavarria was better. According to hard-hit rate, 2016 Hechavarria was better. It’s his actual numbers that went in the toilet. That’s neat, even if we don’t know quite what to do with it.
It seems like Hechavarria’s results are misleading. It seems like he went from overachieving to underachieving, and the Rays might figure the bat has just enough life. We don’t know expected wOBA well enough to say for sure, but it’s something to take a chance on. And if Hechavarria can hit enough, the Rays know he’ll be their best defensive shortstop in a while. Certainly better than Matt Duffy, who’s still recovering from an operation. This’ll be good for the infield.
And, ideally, good for the team. Hechavarria will have to be better than an offensive black hole. There’s reason to believe that’s well within his reach.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
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Terrific pickup for the Rays, continue to add depth for the long season!
What I’m getting from this article is that Adeiny Hechavarria isn’t all that interesting
Remember when Fangraphs mocked the Marlins and called them “dinosaurs” for thinking he was a good defender because UZR didn’t agree with them, and then he went on to be a +20 defender the next year. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-can-we-make-sense-of-adeiny-hechavarria/
Because the problem is that Marlins fielding coach Perry Hill is a “dinosaur”, not that UZR hasn’t been proven to measure defensive value and the people who take the so-called measurements don’t even let others check their work.
Wut?
The most interesting thing about this trade is that the Marlins were so desperate to unload $2.5 million. I know Loria is cheap, but if that small amount means that much he should never have been allowed to own a team.
To be fair, if your season is going nowhere and the guy is a non-tender candidate then getting rid of him (even if it’s just a salary dump) is the right call.
I’m not convinced that Hechevarria is a signficantly better defender than Robertson, and I’m pretty sure he’s not a better hitter, but the Rays do need MI depth.
Also, Adeiny Hechavarria is interesting because his name is Adeiny Hechavarria.
Replacement level player going from non-contender to fringe contender for cheap. Good move for Marlins. I don’t like it for TB. this barely moves the needle and they need to actually improve to make the playoffs.
Jed Lawrie would’ve been a better move.
TB has acquired offensive duds in the past, and fixing them is not their strong suit, like Franklin, Duffy, various catchers, etc. Other guys like Keirmeyer and Upton seem to have the tools but don’t progress.
Like that kid in your neighbourhood who always brought home baby birds and lost kittens.
With such emphasis being placed on getting balls in the air, at what point will a +offensive -defensive SS/2B become significantly more valuable than a -offensive +defensive SS/2B?
The thing to like here is that TB got an asset for nothing, not that he is going to tip the scales. Jed Lowrie would have cost something and been a bigger impact, but wasn’t the move to make now.
Really what this does is improve the bench. Right now the Rays have Taylor Featherston on the bench. With this move they’ll now have Beckham, Robertson, and Hechavarria to cover 2B/SS and a bench MI.
This is about improving the worst player on their roster. They did it at minimal to no cost. This isn’t a move that moves the needle in a big way, but they are a slightly better team now.
If the minor difference in play is significant, then is it not significant that he makes more $$$? There is also zero chance that he gets any better: at this stage, this is what he is.
Let’s see – Hechavarria has roughly 2 WAR in 2000+ career PA, while Robertson has roughly 1 WAR in about 200 PA, and is paid 1/10 as much. Acquire Hechavarria, send Robertson down. Makes sense.