Introducing New Steamer Split Projections and More!
We now have a whole bunch of new Steamer projections and historical ZiPS projections available for FanGraphs Members!
These include:
- Steamer platoon projections for both batters and pitchers
- Steamer starting pitcher/relief pitcher split projections
- Steamer context neutral projections
- Steamer wOBA percentile projections for batters
- Steamer RA9 percentile projections for pitchers
- Historical full-season Steamer projections going back to 2012
- Historical full-season ZiPS projections going back to 2010
Please note that all of our full-season projections (ZiPS, Steamer, ATC, THE BAT, OOPSY, and the FanGraphs Depth Charts) for the current season will remain accessible to both Members and non-Members, as will the updated in-season projections and the rest of our data tools.
We are committed to bringing more great features to our Members, and hope to make purchasing a Membership a no-brainer for anyone who hasn’t done so already. Membership is not only the best way to support FanGraphs, it also includes an ever-growing number of site features:
- Unlimited FanGraphs & RotoGraphs articles
- Ad-free browsing
- One-click data exports
- Custom Player Page dashboards and more player cards, like heat maps, rolling averages, and more
- Dark and Classic Modes
- FanGraphs Walk-off, your personalized year-end review
- Enhanced Steamer projections
- Historical ZiPS and Steamer projections
To reiterate what I said in our metered paywall announcement: We don’t focus on chasing clicks. We don’t participate in SEO schemes. We don’t work with sportsbooks or gambling entities. We are a baseball site staffed by baseball experts for baseball fans and experts. For an independent, single-sport site, the range and depth of content available at FanGraphs is truly special.
Thank you for your support and please let us know if you run into any issues with the new projection features, either in the comments below or through our support page.
David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.
Love this!
Great stuff, I’ve been checking the historical projections over the last few days. I haven’t seen the percentiles anywhere though, where can I find that?
The percentiles are listed as a new tab under the regular Steamer projections: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=bat&pos=all&team=0&players=0&lg=all&z=1738035576&pageitems=30&statgroup=percentile&fantasypreset=dashboard
NM – i see my question was already answered in the comments
Thank you!
Very cool! What’s the difference between the “P” percentiles and the “TT” percentiles
The P is projected percentiles and TT are true talent percentiles.
Sounds cool, could you elaborate a bit more on the distinction?
I’m not a FanGraphs employee, here’s my guess: true talent is the actual level of skill that the model thinks is repeatable. In theory, if you replayed the 2025 season a million times, everyone’s stats would converge to their true level of talent. The model is uncertain what the true talent is, so it gives you an uncertainty distribution via the percentiles. But there is more randomness than that in a single season. Luis Arraez is not a true-talent .400 hitter, but if you gave him infinite seasons, he’d probably hit .400 in some percentage of them just due to BABIP luck and other random variation. So the spread of the distribution will be wider for the projections than for the true talent level
Thank you for answering! That’s exactly right.
Are you saying that “TT – True Talent” is more reliably accurate than “P – Projection” then?
I guess im kind of confused because I thought all projections were a reflection of a players True Talent .. i guess im still not understanding the difference between “projection” and “true talent” in this context.
Will historical multi-year projections be available? I’d love to see e.g. what ZiPS thought in 2010 about how Pujols would age over the next decade
Beautiful! Thanks as always to the FG crew.
This is amazing.
This is awesome! More of the internet needs to be like this.
Love it! Thanks! Something seems broken with Pitcher WAR in 2012 and 2013.
This should be fixed now!
You da Man David
thank you!
any updates on FG audio?
Just a small suggestion – I feel like the article that talks about a cool new Member feature shouldn’t count towards the Free Article Limit. I’ve been on the fence about hopping on (I would like to, just need to take another look at the monthly budget with my wife) and being able to learn about another feature seems like good advertisement. 🙂
Thanks for this. Best money I spend every baseball season. Curious, when will the Zips team projections for 2025 be integrated into FGDC? Thanks!
I am thrilled with these enhancements. Thanks to all the Fangraphs team for all the great work they do.
These are awesome. Much appreicated.
Just a note that the export from Pitcher Splits (i.e. vs RHB, vs LHB) is a little wacky. Unlike the “Overall” export, the “Splits” export is missing a bunch of columns that could easily be included, such as FIP. Also, FPTS and SPTS are all negative numbers.