Justin Bour Heads to Philadelphia
As reported by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Philadelphia Phillies acquired first baseman Justin Bour and cash considerations from the Miami Marlins for a minor-league pitcher who is yet to be named.
That a first baseman who can hit a little bit went in a minor August trade is another data point on just how little first baseman with some offensive pep are valued in baseball in 2018. It kind of makes you wonder about the team’s public stance to not let their players go cheaply; while Bour’s oblique injury came at a bad time for a deadline trade in 2017, I can’t help but think that a hitter coming off a .289/.366/.536 season could have fetched more than this over the winter. Yes, Bour has larger-than-typical platoon splits for a left-handed batter, with a 210-point difference in career OPS vs. RHP and LHP, but in some ways, that actually makes it easier for his new club to find a role for him. Also, he makes practically nothing in baseball terms ($3.4 million in 2018) and has two additional years before free agency.
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | DR | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | .249 | .344 | .494 | 128 | 421 | 55 | 105 | 17 | 1 | 28 | 83 | 62 | 123 | 1 | 124 | -2 | 1.7 |
| 2020 | .245 | .338 | .478 | 121 | 400 | 50 | 98 | 16 | 1 | 25 | 76 | 57 | 114 | 1 | 118 | -3 | 1.2 |
It’s not a large investment for the Phillies, who are throwing a pitcher back to the Marlins in return for a bit of the $1 million remaining on Bour’s 2018 contract. It’s good that Philadelphia didn’t surrender too much, because it’s difficult to see how Bour could carve out much playing time. Carlos Santana’s struggled against the shift this year, but he’s also a player without any kind of exploitable platoon split. Also, Santana doesn’t have much positional flexibility anymore and Bour never really did, so it’s not like one can push the other into a corner spot à la Rhys Hoskins. I would certainly hope not, at least. Reading the tea leaves, I suspect that Bour’s skillset basically limits him to a bench role for Philly. He can also fill in for Santana on off-days instead of the team sliding Hoskins over.
Bour strikes me as a non-tender candidate this winter, and while I think there are teams that ought to have some interest (Angels, Rockies), I don’t think this trade happens if the market for Bour weren’t deader than disco. It’s quite a fall for a player who just over a year ago was competing in the online Final Vote for the All-Star Game. It makes me wonder if baseball, after decades of overrating first-base/corner-outfield talent, has swung too far in the other direction, but that’s a post for another time.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Among players with 250+ PA this season, Bour ranks 114th in wRC+ as of today. I do not understand how the Marlins wouldn’t hold him through their teardown.
Honestly? It’s probably about money. They probably didn’t want to pay him the raise in arbitration. So rather than wait for him to bounce back and deal him later, they sold him, saved a million dollars, and got a potential reliever or 6th starter out of it.
There’s two ways to look at that. One is to say they should never really believed in him and decided to cut bait after seeing him this year, in which case they should have dealt him when he was coming off a good year. The other is to say they really believed in him and that’s why they held him, in which case they should believe in him enough to keep him longer to right the ship.
This is too negative imo- the prospect hasn’t even been named yet, and the assumption is that he’s a potential reliever of 6th starter? What do you estimate the surplus value of this deal to be, and what do you think it would have been in the offseason? It seems conformist to just bash the Marlins without even knowing the deal.
The Boras/CAA/Travis et al agenda, obviously, has been to bash the Marlins constantly. The team is likely to move, which likely has something to do with the bad PR smears and leaks.
In reality, the Marlins have done much better than the ‘Marlins are as bad as possible’ meme suggested.
In reality, the Marlins have had a decent return on their early rebuilding efforts. Their farm systems has become much stronger, their financial situation is clearing up, several of the players they were criticized for trading have cratered (Ozuna, Gordon), while the ones they have kept have generally retained value (Realmuto, and a grab bag of 1-2 WAR guys).
They are not the worst team in baseball, let alone challenging as one of the worst in history as the pre-season PR-agenda hysterics suggested. They are better than the clubs that signed Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, they got out from the underwater Stanton deal, and its hard to argue that their worse off (from a baseball perspective) in the next few seasons than the Giants, Rangers, Reds, Royals, Mets, or Orioles.
Of course, their potential move, even abroad, will continue to be a major issue for them as long as it is considered. And don’t get me wrong- Jeter sucks- but the PR smear against the Marlins is not really about whether the scouts got let go politely or whether the return for Ozuna was enough, etc.
The prospect is McKenzie Mills. And the Marlins are a disaster. They have a -160 run differential this year, better than only the Orioles and Royals. I would agree their future looks better than the Orioles and Royals, sure, but this is a team that is going to take a loooong time to recover.
Bottom quartile fielder at easiest position. 490th fastest runner out of 500 per statcast. Third worst BsR. His hitting is just enough to get him back to about breakeven. Arb process overvalues guys with his skill set; If he gets a raise in his second arb year (likely), he’s probably above what he’d get as a free agent.
If you are judging Bour by his defense and base running, then you are doing it wrong. That is not his value to any team. Thats the problem with WAR-centric thinking – you shouldn’t judge everyone through the same lense. I think every team in MLB would like to have Bour on their roster for what he does which is be left-handed, hit bombs and walk.
22 teams passed on him in waivers, so doubt that every team in MLB would like to have Bour on their roster.
The problem with WAR is that it takes everything into account? Ok.
So wait, the Rockies couldn’t come up with a million bucks and a scrub minor leaguer to get a solid bat to replace either Desmond or Gerardo Parra (with Bour to 1B and Desmond to the OF)?
They’re going to try and get Jose Iglesias to play 1B.
I am probably joking. But Brdich likes “athletes” at every position, even first. Bour is not that.
Neither could the Mariners, by the looks of it.
Was going to put them in there also but I think their situation has changed a bit with Cano apparently set to play 1B when he comes back next week. But yeah, the M’s also. . . .
Since the Philllies are in the same league as the Marlins, they had first waiver dibs before the AL teams. We don’t know if the Mariners put in a claim.
No. The Rockies weren’t willing (able?) to /take back/ a million for a scrub minor leaguer to replace Desmond or Gerrardo Parra.
There is no evidence that the return is a scrub minor leaguer.
Further, less than two months of a 2 WAR hitter is only worth a couple of million at best- even at the most expensive portion of the win curve.
There are a ton of things the Rockies could do to upgrade their 1b situation, they do not need to trade for anyone. See Carson’s most recent fringe 5 featuring Mike Tauchman (.413 wOBA in 855 AAA PAs last two season).
The Rockies have plenty of other options at AAA alone. 26 year old Jordan Patterson has never posted an RC+ below 121, at any of his 7 minor league stops. The lefty hit .283/.342/.539 last year at AAA, with 26 HRs, and is doing similar this year at .269/.370/.521 with 21 HRs. He has 19 big league PAs and a .425 wOBA- but none since 2016. 27 year old Tom Murphy seems to have been around for a while, but has only 191 MLB PAs, most as a catcher. He’s never posted an RC+ below 113 in the minors. Ramiel Tapia, still just 24, has only 232 PAs, and has a .390 wOBA in the past two AAA seasons.
But these are the Rockies, and they are stupid. They will probably go with recently signed 38-year old Matt Holliday, who seems to be getting ready in AAA the last two weeks. Bour would be an upgrade for them, but their refusal to do anything intelligent at a number of positions makes it seem like they need to make trades, when really they just need to stop shooting themselves in the foot.
The minor leaguer in question has been traded each of the last two years for mediocre bats in August. He could of course put something together but clearly this is not someone with a ton of value
Most minor leaguers are scrubs. The chances that McKenzie Mills ever provides any non-replaceable value is slim. He may put together a year or two out of a bullpen where warrants a roster spot, but I don’t think that is hard to find. Bullpen options do grow on trees – young, old, busted position player, washed up SP… I don’t really understand why people don’t understand that bullpen success is not hard to come by. Even a guy with an ERA of 9 probably throws 6/9 scoreless innings. Its not quite being an extra point kicker, but it is the closest thing that baseball has. Anyone can have success for a period of time especially if they are sheltered enough. Its tough to value because there are guys that face the best hitters in the biggest spots with nobody warming up in the pen… and there are guys that only face favorable matchups and will get lifted as soon as they allow a base-runner. We will never be able to accurately value RP, but that is what Mills likely is. That is the end of my RP, low level pitching prospect rant.
Way to sell someone at the absolute nadir of their value.
You haven’t seen the return.
Bour hasn’t declined notably, so assuming that his value is low can only be based on the return, as his WAR is ok and has not hit nadir.
McKenzie Mills is the return. It’s been reported for a while. He’s at best a 40 FV.
I think I figured out how the ZIPS SB algorithm works:
2017 Actual – 1
2018 Actual -1
Thus
2019 Proj. – 1
2020 Proj. – 1
There is some good disco.
“. . . deader than disco.” Good one, Dan.
While everyone heads out for the weekend, I’ll sneak this in here — “Nights On Broadway” by Bee Gees. *runs out door*
There is some superb disco.
I’ll take some evil disco from Static X
Just paving the way for next month’s guest writer, Mike Veeck.
We’ve all met the couple where we wonder why is she with him. We’ve all met the couple where we wonder why is he with her. But every now and then, we meet the couple and we can’t see what either gets out of the arrangement.
I don’t get what the Marlins or Phillies gets out of it.
The Phillies get a cheap bat off the bench down the stretch. Last night with 1 out in the ninth and the game winning run at the plate they pinch hit Andrew Knapp. That is why they are making this trade