Kris Bryant’s Very Earliest 2015 Projection
Jared Cross has recently submitted to FanGraphs the first iteration of his Steamer projections for 2015. Though unavailable in full as of yet, said projections appear on individual player pages now, and a brief inspection of them reveals that the system is very optimistic about Cubs third-base prospect Kris Bryant. Bryant’s line of .265/.344/.489, adjusted for league and park, is 30% better than league average — a performance worth nearly 20 runs above league average when prorated to 550 plate appearances.
Below is Bryant’s prorated line, with default estimates of zero both for baserunning and also UZR (leaving his positional adjustment for third base as the only measure of defense).
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | BABIP | wRC+ | BsR | Off | Def* | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 550 | .265 | .344 | .489 | .324 | 130 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 4.1 |
Bryant recorded identical 14.5% walk rates in identical 297-plate-appearance samples at Double- and Triple-A, respectively, this season — a product of his batting eye, one assumes, but probably even moreso pitchers’ unwillingness to throw him strikes. His 43 home runs represents the highest total this season in the minor leagues.
Also notable is Bryant’s favorable BABIP projection. Steamer tends to be rather conservative with BABIP for players who’ve recorded zero major-league plate appearances. This isn’t the case for Braynt, however, for whom Steamer projects a distinctly above-average figure of .324.
To get a sense of where this Steamer projections might place Bryant among his major-leauge peers, here’s short list of third baseman from 2014 who recorded both (a) a wRC+ of 125 to 135 and also (b) at least 500 plate appearances:
| Name | Team | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | BABIP | wRC+ | BsR | Off | Def | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Rendon | Nationals | 683 | .287 | .351 | .473 | .314 | 130 | 7.4 | 30.7 | 9.2 | 6.6 |
| Josh Donaldson | Athletics | 695 | .255 | .342 | .456 | .278 | 129 | -2.8 | 19.1 | 16.7 | 6.4 |
| Kyle Seager | Mariners | 654 | .268 | .334 | .454 | .296 | 126 | -2.2 | 16.4 | 12.9 | 5.5 |
| Avg | — | 677 | .270 | .342 | .461 | .296 | 128 | 0.8 | 22.1 | 12.9 | 6.2 |
| Per550 | — | 550 | .270 | .342 | .461 | .296 | 128 | 0.6 | 17.9 | 10.5 | 5.0 |
It’s probable that all three of Donaldson, Rendon, and Seager are defensively superior to Bryant. Among third basemen, however, only Adrian Beltre (141 wRC+, 5.8 WAR) and Josh Harrison (137 wRC+, 4.9 WAR) out-hit this triumvirate.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
My prediction–the Cubs announce a deal with Bryant before the season starts and avoid the service time game.
My prediction is that he hit closer to .230/.310/.410
The cubs’ minor league coaches does not teach hitting well. Baez, alcantara bost have very poor strike zone recognition and while soler started hot, he was equally bad in his last 40ab. I think Bryant will start slowly because the cubs minor league do not know how to prepare their young players for the majors
First of all, hitting needs to be taught only to a certain degree, not everyone requires the same level of adjustments. Bryant is not alcantara nor is he Baez. He doesn’t need the big adjustments. You can also take a look at rizzo who was retooled by the cubs at AAA and had a huge year. The cubs prepare their minor leaguers fine and Baez and alcantara will be fine after they have a winter off from their first couple minor league months
There are very real reasons to be concerned about Baez ever turning into a quality MLB hitter, but Dovif’s claim is absurd. You can’t simply say that Baez has a poor approach at the plate and therefore Bryant will as well. Rizzo is a perfect example of that.
Is this the best projection for a rookie next year? The next best I can find is Mookie Betts who is projected for a 120 wRC+ and 4.3 wins (over 647 PA)
If Betts were pro-rated to 550 PA’s…Bryant would have a better projection.
They’re available in full now. The first error to note is anyone on the DL at the end of the season or hasn’t played a game in the majors (i.e. Bryant) has one plate appearance as a projection.
Nonetheless, kudos for getting these out early!
For whatever it’s worth, Kris Bryant had the fifth worst O-Contact% of any AAA batter with at least 200 plate appearances, and he was one of the worst in AA as well. That’s not necessarily a bad thing given that you’d rather miss contact than make poor contact with more than two strikes, but he’ll need to compensate with a low O-Swing% in the major leagues. Of greater concern is that Bryant was almost as bad in Z-Contact%, ranking 22nd out of 378 AAA batters.
Since I don’t want to completely rain on the parade I will note that Kris was one of the best (22nd) in AAA at avoiding infield fly-balls, which is hugely beneficial. That gives him an overall statistical profile reminiscent of Ryan Howard, although with slightly weaker contact skills.
less than two strikes. *sigh*
And 22nd worst out of 378 AAA batters. I need an edit feature.