Look Here For Your Justin Smoak Optimism
I’ll admit from the top that this is just an experiment. But anyway, I won’t waste your time. Justin Smoak is 30 years old. He’s coming off a 90 wRC+ and a WAR of -0.1. He already has seven seasons of big-league experience, and in precisely zero of those has he measured in at even one win above replacement. Relative to what he was as a prospect, he’s been extremely disappointing. Last July, weirdly, the Blue Jays signed Smoak to a multi-year contract extension. Here’s a clip from his player page:
RotoWire News: Smoak, who was previously presumed to be in line for a platoon role, is the Jays’ preferred everyday first baseman, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports. (2/19/2017)
Strange! But maybe…not so strange? Stick with me. As a hitter, your primary skills involve how often you make contact, how hard you make contact, and where the ball goes after contact. I’ve messed around before with pitch comps, looking for similar pitches based on velocity, horizontal movement, and vertical movement. In this somewhat similar experiment, I’ve looked for similar hitters to Smoak based on 2016’s exit velocities, launch angles, and contact rates. Same methodology and everything — it’s all based around z-scores. In the big table below, the most similar hitters to Smoak last season, based on this method. I’ve included everyone with a combined comp score of 2.0 or lower.
| Player | 2016 EV | 2016 LA | 2016 Contact% | Comp Score | 2016 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Smoak | 89.6 | 17.7 | 72.1% | — | 90 |
| Freddie Freeman | 89.4 | 17.3 | 72.5% | 0.3 | 152 |
| Mark Trumbo | 89.8 | 16.3 | 72.3% | 0.5 | 123 |
| Nick Castellanos | 88.5 | 17.3 | 72.8% | 0.7 | 119 |
| Justin Upton | 88.3 | 16.1 | 71.7% | 1.0 | 105 |
| J.D. Martinez | 89.6 | 13.8 | 72.8% | 1.1 | 142 |
| Trevor Story | 88.0 | 16.2 | 72.7% | 1.1 | 120 |
| Ryan Howard | 90.5 | 17.2 | 67.2% | 1.3 | 83 |
| Joc Pederson | 88.9 | 15.5 | 75.1% | 1.4 | 129 |
| Miguel Sano | 90.0 | 17.1 | 65.7% | 1.4 | 107 |
| Randal Grichuk | 87.4 | 15.6 | 72.0% | 1.4 | 102 |
| Evan Longoria | 87.5 | 17.0 | 75.3% | 1.6 | 123 |
| Khris Davis | 89.4 | 14.1 | 68.3% | 1.6 | 123 |
| Chris Davis | 88.5 | 18.2 | 65.7% | 1.7 | 111 |
| Kris Bryant | 86.6 | 19.8 | 73.0% | 1.9 | 149 |
| Chris Carter | 88.7 | 18.8 | 64.7% | 1.9 | 112 |
| Pedro Alvarez | 88.3 | 13.3 | 70.3% | 2.0 | 117 |
The single best comparison to Smoak: Freeman, who was and is one of the best players on the Braves. You’ll notice there are but two below-average wRC+ marks out of 17. The overall average wRC+ in this group is 118. The median is 119. Last season, Jose Bautista’s wRC+ for the Blue Jays was 122.
I’ve never looked at players quite like this before, so don’t take this to mean more than it does. It seems, at least, modestly encouraging — Smoak’s exit-velocity numbers were quite good, and he didn’t struggle at all to generate lift. Maybe there’s just something about his approach that holds him back, but then, maybe he’s better than he looked. Given that he’s a slow-footed first baseman, he’s never going to top a WAR leaderboard. Yet perhaps the Blue Jays correctly identified that there’s upside still in there. The track record is what it is, but I can’t very well look at that table and dismiss it.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
This is the perfect, perfect preseason article. Jeff Sullivan purging angst from last year, promoting hope for the next.