Mariners Reportedly Sign Nelson Cruz
The Mariners have made no secret out of their desire to trade for a right-handed slugger, so perhaps this report from the Dominican newspaper El Caribe should not surprise us too much:
Nelson Cruz está cerca de firmar con Seattle por 57 millones de dólares http://t.co/Fsxcc2r04y
— El Caribe (@ElCaribeRD) December 1, 2014
You don’t have to be a Spanish expert to deduce that the report suggests that the Mariners are close to signing Nelson Cruz to a four year, $57 million contract. Ken Rosenthal has confirmed that the team is in “serious talks”, so it seems like a deal is probably going to get done.
The crowd and I both projected Cruz to sign for $45 million over three years, so it appears the Mariners won the bidding by adding a fourth year at an additional $12 million to the pile. Realistically, though, Cruz shouldn’t be expected to produce any value in his age-37 season, so while the team is spreading the $57 million out over four years, he’s going to have to justify the entirety of that figure over the next 2-3 seasons before he declines into nothing more than a bench player.
The forecasts are not optimistic. Steamer has Nelson Cruz projected for +1.5 WAR in 637 plate appearances in 2015, based on a 119 wRC+ and minimal defensive value. ZIPS sees the same level of offensive output, but because Dan gives a bigger boost to designated hitters to account for the DH penalty, he has the same production worth +2 WAR. The forecasts both think Cruz will return to something very close to his career performance, though, and that his career year at 2014 was an outlier and not a sustainable improvement.
If Cruz follows a traditional aging curve, he’d be expected to produce something like +3 to +5 WAR, depending on how you heavily you penalize a player for spending time at DH. At $57 million, even the high side of this looks like $11 million per win, while the low side of the projection would have him pushing $20 million per win. Oh, and the Mariners gave up the 21st pick in the draft to sign Cruz as well.
We’ll do a full write-up on Cruz to the Mariners in a bit, but this is an early contender for the worst signing of the off-season.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Man…. I really hope this works out…. not optimistic.
VMart would have been a better bet for the money but he wasn’t going anywhere. Cuddyer would have been less money but even more risk. People lose their shit over the idea of trading young pitching for an offensive upgrade and then get snarky about obtaining the best FA bat available?
Cruz is the best DH option available, and he’s going to help the team over the next few years.
This is a good deal. And besides, the only thing at risk is the owners’ money. We lost nothing, and we certainly gained something. It remains to be seen how much we gained, but even with age/regression, Cruz is likely to produce enough value to justify this contract.
It’s important to care about money and the economics of baseball, but once a player is signed and they have at least the potential of talent, there’s no reason not to be happy. As I said last offseason, don’t worry about how much money the Mariners spend on individual moves. Worry about whether they upgrade. The money they spend on any one individual player may prevent them from upgrading elsewhere, but that doesn’t mean that the signing is bad, only that the planning and execution of the signing relative to the rest of the team is bad.
So even though Nelson Cruz is both risky and probably not that good, he’s got talent, and now he’s on the team. I’m happy – way to go Mariners.
Last year I would’ve hated giving Nelson Cruz 4-years for anything.
But this year, I keep hearing “Cespedes for Iwakuma” and “Upton for Taijuan Walker” and lord knows how much Matt Kemp is going for. Matt Kemp is my favorite target because for all the risk in his red flags and size of contract, at least he’s under team control for the next 5 years.
Nelson Cruz strikes me as “Matt Kemp lite” in that we’ve just “traded” for something that could remotely possibly at some point be another Taijuan Walker and a 4/57 contract (AAV $14.25M). Nelson Cruz isn’t my favorite target and he comes with his own red flags but as I’ve said before, like with Matt Kemp, the Mariners are in perfect position to absorb the risk involved with rolling the dice on Nelson Cruz. We already know that Robinson Cano likes the idea of acquiring Cruz since he was hoping for this last season.
Also, Mariners are now in a different spot on the win-curve. At +70 wins, throwing a bunch of money for Nelson Cruz to be the offseason savior would have been depressing. At +80 wins, any contributions from Nelson Cruz to compliment our offense NOW will be extremely important in the wake of coming fresh off relying on cardboard (Kendrys Morales) to hit cleanup.
So yeah, I’m surprisingly fine with this to the point where when I woke up to this news this morning, I was all like “Alrighty-then”and actually felt more comfortable than waking up to the team burning prospects for rentals.
Dave, I think you’re off base on this. The Mariners hit .190/.266/.301 last season — not a misprint. They finished one game out of the playoffs. And they’re swimming in money.
It’s an overpay in a vacuum, but even in decline Cruz should help their offense and next year might be the difference between the playoffs and not.
Mariners’ DHs hit .190/.266/.301. Sorry. The first comment *was* a misprint.
Exactly. Dave just hates on everything the Ms do for whatever reason even though he used to be a fan. Yes, he’s going to decline and they overpaid, but they needed to overpay for pretty much amy bat. This is what present win now moves are all about. They can be “dumb” but they can also get you over the hump short term. And if we do, we’re gonna get more people excited and more revenue flowing in ticket sales. The mariners had one of the biggest attendance increases in baseball last year, and that will only continue as long as this team continues to get better and gets that buzz back in Seattle
Just to clarify:
diagreeing with a move (or moves) for perfectly justifiable, easy to explain reasons =/= “hates on everything the M’s do”
Isn’t Safeco horrible for Right handed power hitters? I can’t imagine Cruz putting up good numbers over the life of the deal playing half the games in a park that suppresses offence for RH power bats.
Yeah, the DH sucked for Seattle last year, but Cruz isn’t exactly a legit threat in Safeco.
Do you think maybe the Mariners get terrible performance out of their DHs and other positions because they keep overpaying (in money and compensation picks) for decline hitters who will offer them very little value? Every time the Mariners sign a Richie Sexon, we hear your argument. When has it ever worked out?
Yeah, agree with this. Being poor last year doesn’t justify signing someone poor this year. We’re comparing Cruz to the other options on the market, not to an empty batter’s box.
One bright spot is that the Mariners will now be less likely to trade away multiple years of valuable young players like Walker, Paxton, or Miller for single years of players like Kemp, Upton, or Cespedes. They probably got 2-3 wins better just by replacing Morales with Cruz.
Sounds like the O’s are making a run at Kemp.
I would still expect the M’s to deal a SS for some arms. Also sounds like they want to move Saunders for some reason.
He’s injury prone and not that good? I’d go with that as the reason.
Maybe because he’s cost-controlled and put up more WAR in 263 AB last season (with a 126 wRC+) than Cruz is projected to put up in all of 2015?
But they DID trade away six years of the 21st overall pick this year.
Yes, cause all first round draft picks not only reach the Major Leagues, but give the team drafting them six years of above-average production on the field. Jeff Clement and Dustin Ackley say hello — and they were picked 3rd and 2nd overall, instead of the #21 pick.
So since many prospects bust, all prospects are worthless. They certainly don’t have any trade value. You’re right.
Here are a list of the top 10 No. 21 overall picks (by Baseball Reference WAR) in the entire history of the draft:
1. Rick Sutcliffe, 1974, 34.3
2. Jason Varitek*, 1993, 24.3 (did not sign)
3. Gorman Thomas, 1969, 19.7
4. Jake Westbrook, 1996, 13.3
5. Todd Worrell, 1982, 11.4
6. Ian Kennedy, 2006, 10.9
7. Cliff Pennington, 2005, 10.1
8. Atlee Hammaker, 1979, 8.5
9. John Cerutti, 1981, 6.7
10. Jim Acker, 1980, 5.8
In the last 20 years, only Westbrook, Kennedy and Pennington topped 3 WAR.
I will never understand why the people who don’t see the value of draft picks will only ever look at the exact draft slot that is discussed as opposed to a range of slots around the one being discussed.
Well, I understand it insofar as they only want to look at data that supports their point, but it sure doesn’t reflect the reality of the value of a pick.
Schide: Look below, I ran down the top 10 picks at No. 19 for you. Would you like to see it for No. 20 and 22?
Draft picks have value, clearly. But they currently seem to be overvalued by some in the media.
I did a quick look at every 18-22 pick ever, and as a group they averaged 5.7 bWAR for their careers. Out of the 250 players 145 either had zero (or less) WAR or never made it to the majors. Of the ones that made it, they averaged 13.8 career WAR. Some of the 0 WAR guys obviously still have a chance to have good careers. Hunter Harvey, for example, was in BP’s top 100.
So while it’s obviously true that picks from this range are more likely to fail than pan out, there’s still a lot of value there. If you figure each WAR is worth $7 million you’re looking at almost $40 million worth of value.
@Section 34:
Right, and there were 22 teams who passed on Mike Trout (including the Diamondbacks twice) in 2009. The Astros picked Jiovanni Mier at Number 21, not only passing on Mike Trout but also forgetting the rule that no one named Jiovanni has ever played in the Majors.
Albert Pujols was passed over until the middle of the 13th round. Mike Piazza was a 62nd round pick. I think that same year the Yankees drafted a horse in the 61st round.
It’s silly to make this sort of argument because some of the finest players in baseball history were picked after the 21st overall pick in the amateur draft.
And Jack Z was quoted in January 2014 stating that while he would love to sign Cruz, he was reluctant to give up his third round pick in exchange for signing Cruz. How things can change in less than a year.
This is the first signing of the offseason that made me LOL.
oh god, we heard the same thing about Cruz not being worth the investment a year ago….
1 year 8 million is not the same as 4 years 57 million.
who cares? the M’s needed a middle of the order RHed bat and got one at a price that doesn’t break the bank. mission accomplished. leave it to DC & Co to sweat over the details.
The next time you need a tank of gas, let me know, and I’ll be glad to sell it to you at $6/gallon. It won’t break the bank, and you’ll need it — let me sweat the details.
what makes this remotely analogous? Gas is a commodity. Baseball players aren’t.
To a GM they absolutely are, and probably to a fan too. I fail to see the distinction you’re drawing.
I agree it’s a shitty contract, but does anything make Dave Cameron happy? The Mariners could get Trout for a penny and he’d find a way to be disappointed.
This might be more of a Mariners thing than a Dave Cameron thing.
He wasn’t exactly unhappy about the Kyle Seager extension.
I like that you admit that it’s a “shitty contract” (your words!) but then expect Dave to jump up and down for it?!?!
“Hey we just signed Bartolo Colon for 6/175! Soon to be followed up with a sign-and-trade for Papelbon that comes with an 8/120 extension! REJOICE!!”
???!!!
You’ve been dreading this one for a long time. Did your preparation take any of the sting away?
It’s like when you’ve slid out on wet pavement and can see the highway barrier coming closer and closer, but there’s nothing you can do about it. Time seems to slow down almost is if real life were a movie. First it’s terrifying, then inevitable, then finally it’s … here.
I do have a career .749 OPS in Safeco (.234/.309/.440), which could be worse.
Which would be useful if the Mariners were signing you 8 years ago instead of now.
My first reaction was “yuck” as was my second.
But when you describe it as worst move of the off-season you (and Steamer) have an irrational love for Pablo Sandoval and a “dislike” of Cruz. Both those projections look funny — Sandoval projects to be much better than any of the last three seasons. Cruz’s ISO from 2010-14 are .258, .246, .200, .240, .254 and Steamer projects .215, 25-30 points low in my mind. Obviously paying a guy for what he did in one season is idiocy but treating Steamer projections as facts isn’t the best way to evaluate a deal either.
I think there’s a much better chance Cruz starts his decline from a 2.5 win player next year than Sandoval starts as a 3.5 win player.
He’s 34. In the post-steroid era, power declines for every player in their 30s. It’s a matter of when, not if. The .215 projection doesn’t look out of line at all, especially since most of those past numbers came while playing in Arlington. Last year was a massive aberration. As an Ms fan, I’m really hoping for one good year out of this 4-year deal. One good year at the plate (125 or above wrc+) and one solid year (110-120) is probably an 80th percentile outcome for this deal.
DEspite the 1.5 WAR projection, this appears to boost the Mariners over the Red Sox into first place in the AL in the Fangraphs projected team WAR race. I think Cameron was gloomy about the cost/WAR, not the addition of the bat, an obvious upgrade to a team that was very close to the playoffs last year.
p.s. and the length of the contract. But as far as spending to go for it in 2015, ifd cost is no object, the Mariners are better off in 2015
FWIW, that’s based on Rusney Castillo being projected for -0.2 WAR. When he gets an actual projection, it won’t change the whole picture very much, but that’s holding the Red Sox down some.
And also remember – it’s a projection of WAR based on non-finalized rosters which, really, means nothing in the grand scheme of things. So I wouldn’t get to hung up on whether your team grades out as best-in-show, worst in the biz, or anywhere in between. I will happily take my team projecting as the “worst in WAR” if they go 100-62 and head on to the playoffs to the befuddlement of all.
(Previous holders of “worst in WAR” title – 2013 Astros. And also France.)
How might the acquiring team’s lineup affect Cruz’s WAR? In other words, how do we account for Seattle’s stable of RH power bats in this analysis?
Do the projections know that he missed a third of 2013 because of suspension and not injury? I could see that make a difference.
I went into the offseason expecting to hate whatever contract Cruz signed, but this actually doesn’t feel that bad to me. He’s been very healthy in recent years, he’s coming off a great year, and he doesn’t seem to have as big a DH penalty as most (about 5% on his OPS over his career). bWAR likes him a lot better than fWAR, but even using fWAR he’s been worth about 2.5 wins per 650 PAs the last three years, and around 3 wins per 650 PAs for his career. If you start him out at as a 2.5-3 win true talent player and not a 1.5 true talent player this looks a lot better.
I think the Mariners overpaid, but I don’t think it was by a huge margin. I could very easily see him put up a couple of three win seasons, and make the contract look pretty good.
I do think its an overpay but u could say the same about every Free Agent deal. One thing not to overlook is that even at the 5WAr projections over the life of this deal it will be more than that just because of the big-time negative value the M’s have been getting out of his position.
Who’s going to have a higher WAR through the next four years? Nelson Cruz or Raul Ibanez?
Dave, the Mets and Blue Jays had already lost their first round picks so the Mariners gave up the 19th overall pick so far. It could have been the 18th pick depending on who the Yankees sign this offseason
Fair enough. Here are the top 10 No. 19 picks in the entire history of the draft, by baseball reference career WAR. Compare this to the No. 21 picks listed above.
1. Roger Clemens, 1983, 140.3
2. Bobby Grich, 1967, 70.9
3. Alex Rios, 1999, 28.4
4. Mike Scioscia, 1976, 26.0
5. Shannon Stewart, 1992, 24.8
6. James Loney, 2002, 12.7
7. Brian Bohanon, 1987, 8.9
8. Ron Robinson, 1980, 8.2
9. Shelby Miller, 2009, 6.0
10. Sean Burnett, 2000, 6.0
I put Miller 9th because he’s a good bet to pass Burnett.
In the past 20 years only Rios and Loney have topped 6 WAR.
It’s a little better group than the No. 21 picks, but I guess you’d expect that.
everybody go look at the FANS scouting report on Cruz’s Arm strength. 2012: 89, 2013: 78, 2014: 48. it is as if he decided to start throwing with his left hand last season
Everything’s bigger in Texas.
Don’t know how you can discuss this contract without even a mention of the Victor Martinez contract. Last two years wRC+: Martinez 139, Cruz 131 – and Cruz is younger.
How’s this for an optimistic comp?
Player A, Age 33 season:
6-2/225
.208 ISO
9.3% BB / 18.2% K
128 wRC+
20.0 Offense RAA
4 SB
Player B, Age 33 season:
6-2/230
.254 ISO
8.1% BB / 20.6% K
137 wRC+
24.6 Offense RAA
4 SB
A is Torii Hunter, B is Cruz. Hunter was a bit better defensively and on the base paths, but only marginally so – and Cruz still put up the higher WAR. Over his 34-37 seasons, Hunter then went on to post WAR totals of 3.4/2.3/5.2/2.5, despite below-average defense in RF. In his age 38 season he just hit 17 dingers with a .160 ISO and 113 wRC+.
Will Nelson Cruz be Torii Hunter for the next 4 years? Probably not. But it’s not unreasonable to think he could return value through the full contract.
Ugh, comment fail. Apparently “click here to cancel reply” does absolutely nothing.
AAARRRGGGHHHH THE GOGGLES DO NOTHING!!!
I’m sorry Dave. I guess you thought the M’s escaped by not signing him last season. Think of it this way — the M’s are performing a valuable public service to the fans of baseball’s 29 other teams! It’s in the spirit of giving that suits this time of year!
“This a good move for the M’s. Welcome to Seattle, Chone.” – Dave Cameron, December 4th, 2009
Does he have a no-trade clause I’m unaware of because otherwise signing him doesn’t mean he’s stuck in Seattle for four years. Unless there is a magical influx of right handed power in the next two to three years, nothing prevents the M’s from trading him after year #2 as a salary dump/middling prospect move so long as he doesn’t completely sh#t himself in year two. I seem to remember Texas taking $130 million of Prince Fielder’s salary last year AND giving up a more productive player in Kinsler. On to a cheap, short term Alex Rios signing to platoon with Condor…
Yes, you do