Mike Trout Is Baseball’s $430 Million Man

Have you had your morning coffee yet? Here’s something for you:

In the seven years since his debut as a precocious 19-year-old back in 2011, Mike Trout has been worth 64.9 wins above replacement — nearly 20 more than the next-greatest mark achieved over that period (Buster Posey’s 47.3). If you look since 2012, which eliminates Trout’s 0.7 win 2011, the gulf is just as wide: Trout’s 64.2 wins are as far ahead of second-place Posey (45.4) as Posey is of 21st place Jonathan Lucroy (26.3). Trout holds the record for most WAR through age 21, 22, 23, 24, and 26 (Ty Cobb beat him out for 25). Mike Trout is 23rd all time in career WAR through age 30, and he is only 27 years old. Mike Trout is already an average Hall of Famer, and his career can’t yet drive or buy a drink.

Now he’s also signed the biggest contract in professional sports history, besting in one swoop both Zack Greinke’s $34.4 million AAV (Trout will get $36 million), and, by $100 million, Bryce Harper’s briefly record-setting $330 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies. Trout will be an Angel for life and he is already the greatest to ever wear that uniform. Craig Edwards will have a much longer post putting this all in context later today, but for now, please take this time to discuss, reflect, and enjoy. Mike Trout is baseball’s greatest player, he should be the game’s biggest star, and he’s finally going to be paid like it.

You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed. We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member. 1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other. 2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off. 3. Dark mode and Classic mode! 4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them. 5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects. 6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.) 7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only. 8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO. 9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members. 10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features! We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it. In case you didn't read all that, here's the short version. Membership includes:
✓Ad-free browsing
✓Unlimited FanGraphs & RotoGraphs articles
✓Historical & platoon projections
✓Leaderboard & player-page stat heatmaps
✓One-click data exports
✓Customizable player-page dashboards
✓Dark & Classic site modes
✓Weekly Members-only mailbag
✓FanGraphs Walk-Off, your year in review
✓Optional homepage photo removal
✓Gift articles to non-members




Rian Watt is a contributor to FanGraphs based in Seattle. His work has appeared at Vice, Baseball Prospectus, The Athletic, FiveThirtyEight, and some other places too. By day, he works with communities around the world to end homelessness.

156 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
frozndevl
7 years ago

As much as I know the player’s association doesn’t like someone getting discounts, and anything less than all the money is a discount for Trout, as a fan I love that he’ll be an Angel for life. And as a fan, I mean a baseball fan in general, not Angel fan.

Sleepy
7 years ago
Reply to  frozndevl

Imagine if LeBron had made the playoffs once his entire career. And was immediately swept that one time. That’s Mike Trout.

As much as the “one team his entire career” narrative is quaint, it’s really, really bad for baseball that the defining player of his (or possibly any) generation just decided to spend his entire career with a mediocre team on the West Coast.

Bummer.

MoateMember since 2022
7 years ago
Reply to  Sleepy

Basketball comparisons aren’t great, because “one great player” immediately makes a team playoff viable. Dan Marino is probably better comparison, imo. I don’t think that Dan Marino’s situation was “bad for football” as a whole.

DougMember since 2019
7 years ago
Reply to  Moate

One great player? Tell that to the Lakers.

As for Marino, he at least made it to the Superb Owl.

PlatypiMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  Doug

A. Imagine the Lakers without LeBron.
B. LeBron is 34 and doesnt play defense (like at all) in the regular season.

MarlinMan23
7 years ago
Reply to  Moate

It certainly wasn’t bad for this Dolphins fan!

dl80Member since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  Sleepy

It’s not that unusual, though. Ty Cobb had 17 total postseason games. Honus Wagner had 15. Bonds had 48. Mays had 25. Ted Williams had 7. Even Rickey, who played forever, only had 60.

Sleepy
7 years ago
Reply to  dl80

Ty Cobb played in three World Series.

Honus Wagner played in two World Series.

Willie Mays played in four World Series.

Ted Williams played in a World Series.

Barry Bonds played in a World Series.

Rickey Henderson played in three World Series.

Mike Trout played in an ALDS.

TwinPeaks
7 years ago
Reply to  Sleepy

Trout’s career is also probably only 1/3 over.

CC AFCMember since 2016
7 years ago
Reply to  Sleepy

How many teams existed when dudes like Wagner and Cobb were playing? And how many playoff series were there ahead of the World Series? There sure as fuck was not an ALDS and wild card round (applicable to Williams, Mays and portions of Rickey and Bonds’ careers, as well). Not to mention the whole separate league for non-white people thing. It was WAY easier to make the series back then.

Oswald321
7 years ago
Reply to  CC AFC

They won the pennant in the early years by having the best win percentage.

Sleepy
7 years ago
Reply to  CC AFC

“It was WAY easier to make the series back then.”

The Red Sox (or, really, anyone other than the Yankees) would beg to differ.

rhdx
7 years ago
Reply to  CC AFC

Not really. Only the top team in each league would get there. Now, there are 10 teams (1/3 of the league) who make the playoffs and wild card teams regularly make the WS. And the comment noted how few playoff games those players played. With only one postseason series per year it is clearly much harder to accumulate playing time in the playoffs.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  CC AFC

Yeah, there were only 24 teams in 1970 (near the end of Mays’ career) and only 16 in 1927 (near the end of Cobb’s). You don’t have to be a statistician to figure out that’s a lot easier to make a world series when you’re competing against 7 other teams than when you’re competing against 15.

mlmorgen
7 years ago
Reply to  Sleepy

Overstate things much? Mike Trout has played 7 full seasons plus a cup of coffee and is just 27 years old.

Cobb – 3 WS in 24 years (3 WS in first 8 years and never again)
Wagner – 2 WS in 21 years (1 WS in first 8 years – 1/2 those teams <.500))
Mays – 4 WS in 22 years (2 WS in first 8 years)
Williams – 1 WS in 19 years (1 WS in first 8 years and never again)
Bonds – 1 in 22 years (0 WS in first 8 years)
Henderson – 3 WS in 25 years (0 WS in first 8 years)

Managing to Statistics
7 years ago
Reply to  Sleepy

Do you really need a dozen commenters to explain why these aren’t meaningful comparisons? This seems like intellectual dishonesty to me.

rasouddress
7 years ago
Reply to  Sleepy

Pujols has spent the entirety of his contract detracting from the value that Trout has provided. Pujols will only be with the Angels so much longer, so things can change.

Richard Bergstrom
7 years ago
Reply to  Sleepy

You assume changing teams guarantees you a playoff spot or World Series win. If anything, Trout is proof that unlike basketball, you need more than one good player to just have a chance to go to the playoffs.

WARonEverything
7 years ago
Reply to  Sleepy

Why do people care about postseason. He has the opportunity to play in 162 games per season. Enjoy.

Sleepy
7 years ago

“Why do people care about postseason.”

I found the Mariners fan! What do I win?

steelehere
7 years ago
Reply to  Sleepy

Basketball is a lame example. Each team only plays five players at a time and all a team needs to win a title is to roster one of the NBA’s top 5 active superstars plus another top tier player to guarantee a long playoff run (insert 2018-19 Lebron James Lakers’ jokes here).

Baseball relies on nine players at a time and technically more as the pitcher’s spot is split among five starters and a designated hitter. No one player can ever influence the outcome of a team’s season the way an NBA top 5 superstar can.

I’d also note that half the league makes the playoffs in the NBA while just a quarter of the league does so in MLB so the chances of making the playoffs are obviously much easier in basketball.

User79
7 years ago
Reply to  Sleepy

Would it have been better for baseball if he had joined the Yankees, Red Sox, or Dodgers? I would think that creating parity is “better for baseball,” and joining a rebuilding team is one of the better outcomes if you want to create parity.

As we’ve seen in the last few years, a team can go from “mediocre” to competitive within a season or two. I think it’s a good thing that the Angels are looking to spend money and get better. With some good, young pieces like Ohtani and Simmons, they probably think they’re just a few moves and lucky breaks away from being competitive.

jforbes94
7 years ago
Reply to  Sleepy

>53% of all teams in the NBA make the playoffs every year. 33% or more realistically 26.7% make it in the MLB.

CozarMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  Sleepy

So a mediocre team on the East Coast would have been okay?

It’s a shame that the Pujols contract and pitching injuries have limited Trout’s post-season appearances, but the past already happened regardless of whether Trout was going to become a free agent. The only question moving forward is whether from 2021 – 2030 (the new years) the Angels will be a playoff-caliber team.

Nobody knows the answer to that question, but there is no compelling reason to believe that the Angels have a worse chance at being a playoff team during those years than any other baseball team (with exception, perhaps, of the Yankees).

martyvan90Member since 2017
7 years ago
Reply to  Sleepy

You’re gonna get killed but you raise the flip side to what I and many fans felt when we read he’d been extended. We feel good because we like players spending a career with one team, we love Trout period, but you’re point about Trout being almost hidden in Anaheim is a legitimate challenge for the marketing of baseball.

Art VandelayMember since 2016
7 years ago
Reply to  martyvan90

aside from his few endorsements when he didn’t have a gargantuan contract to fall back on, Trout has never really shown he wants to be marketed in that way. If anything, this contract shows he’s happy quietly being the greatest player of his generation living in an area he must enjoy living in.

OddBall Herrera
7 years ago
Reply to  Sleepy

You’re probably just being polite by not bringing up his lifetime .083 postseason batting average, which only bolsters your argument.

What a loser! He’s on pace for something like $170 million per postseason hit. It’s real, it’s plain math. Angels got shafted, they should’ve given that money to Marco Scutaro. Remember that NLCS when he hit .500? THAT is a real winner.

London Yank
7 years ago

That is a lot of money to be offered, but I wonder if there was some hesitation on Trout’s part due to a desire to play for a winner.

slamcactusMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  London Yank

That desire was probably tempered a bit by uncertainty about the long-term contract market for any player – even the greatest player alive – at age 29.

LHPSU
7 years ago
Reply to  slamcactus

I think it’s rather unlikely that he would be pressed for cash at age 29. Or 129. The boost to his historical legacy in playing for a single team seems like a more plausible factor.

slamcactusMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  LHPSU

Obviously I wasn’t saying he’d be pressed for cash.

Athletes tend to want to maximize their cash though, even when they don’t fear having to stand in line at soup kitchens.

If he slipped in the next 2 years the odds of landing a 10 year contract at 29 would go down quite a bit. Teams aren’t paying for what you used to be anymore. Now he’s got contract certainty through age 39. I’m sure he’ll pay lip service to how special it is to play all his games for one team but I’d guess the certainty was a bigger factor.

Richie
7 years ago
Reply to  slamcactus

My vote is Mike Trout simply wanted to avoid free agency or even speculation about it. Which would start up as he got nearer the end of this contract. Trout seems to really, really dislike the circus. Another reason I really like him.

Managing to Statistics
7 years ago
Reply to  Richie

It would seem very Mike Trout to leave money on the table in order to focus on being great (or the greatest) at baseball.

fjtorres
7 years ago
Reply to  Richie

Peace of mind.
All he has to think about is playing the game and staying healthy.

CozarMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  London Yank

I suspect that Trout is convinced the Angels are committing to building a winning team and will be just as likely, by 2021 or 2022, to be a world series contender as any other team.

rhdx
7 years ago
Reply to  Cozar

They have been willing to spend, they just spent poorly. I think it is reasonable to think they will try and build a winner though.

MoateMember since 2022
7 years ago

He probably would have been a steal at $40mil/yr or $500 mil for .

God, you just have to hope that once Pujols’ contract comes off the book they go HAM on building something to compliment Trout.

dtpollittMember since 2016
7 years ago
Reply to  Moate

Only 3 years / $87M to go!

dl80Member since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  dtpollitt

Only $154 million for Miggy!

SenorGato
7 years ago
Reply to  Moate

They could also just do it now instead of waiting. I have no clue how Keuchel and Grandal haven’t been Angels since December tbh

sadtromboneMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  SenorGato

Well, Grandal was a weird situation. But Keuchel needed to be an Angel at least a month ago. And still needs to.

StatNerdMember since 2018
7 years ago
Reply to  SenorGato

Boras and his inane misreads of the FA market. He’s already ruined Moustakas and cost Maldanado a decent chunk of change. Now, with Gio signing, probably cost Keuchel too.

He’s a dinosaur in today’s analytics age.

Kevbot034
7 years ago

Happy he’s not going anywhere. I hope the Angels can get him to some playoff games, though.

Huron
7 years ago

If The Commissioners Office cared about overtaking the NBA, it should veto this contract and demand that the Angels trade Trout to a big market team.

The Stranger
7 years ago
Reply to  Huron

You mean like a team in the LA area?

luke.shigeo
7 years ago
Reply to  The Stranger

FG isn’t letting me like this reply more than once. But I want to.

Huron
7 years ago
Reply to  The Stranger

The Angels are not an LA team. The only LA team is the Dodgers.

neuroccountantMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  Huron

This is so dumb. Are the Mets a big market team?

Huron
7 years ago
Reply to  neuroccountant

No, because the Yankees steal all their thunder. A city can only have one team if we are being honest. The only exception is Chicago, but that’s due to a unique socio-economic environment.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  Huron

If anything, the White Sox have the smallest market of the second banana teams.

szakylMember since 2024
7 years ago
Reply to  Huron

I’m really hoping you thought he would’ve signed with the Mets in FA.

Huron
7 years ago
Reply to  szakyl

No, I think Toronto or Philly would have got him.

AlbyMember since 2017
7 years ago
Reply to  Huron

Overtake it in what?

dtpollittMember since 2016
7 years ago

MIKE TROUT

CC AFCMember since 2016
7 years ago

Well that’s boring. I was really looking forward to the free agency frenzy.

QuadrangularMember since 2017
7 years ago
Reply to  CC AFC

Very on brand for Mike Trout!

dl80Member since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  Quadrangular

Now he can continue to never be in any commercials, give boring interviews, and maintain complete anonymity everywhere he goes. It’s like if Jordan had the personality of Tim Duncan.

JesseMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  dl80

Or like if Tim Duncan had the personality of Tim Duncan.

FrodoBeck
7 years ago
Reply to  dl80

I remember him being in a commercial. Sliding into a base or something?

Or maybe he was eating Subway? The fact that I can’t remember proves your point I suppose

CozarMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  FrodoBeck

He did a hilarious commercial for Body Armor sports drink. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0gbw6xe1wuQ

evilsquirrel13
7 years ago
Reply to  FrodoBeck

You’ll find his mug on boxes of SuperPretzels in your grocer’s freezer…

rhdx
7 years ago
Reply to  dl80

He has never shown much interest in that stuff.

Pepper Martin
7 years ago

It’s a shame that the greatest player of my life (non-Barry-Bonds-on-steroids division) will spend his entire career with a joke organization that can’t make the playoffs. Not to say that you can’t be a great player without postseason success — Ty Cobb and Ted Williams are both top-5 players of all time and neither ever won a championship — but it’s disappointing in an era when a third of the teams make the playoffs every year that Trout is stuck on a large-market team that’s incapable of escaping mediocrity.

rasouddress
7 years ago
Reply to  Pepper Martin

Yeah, it would have made more sense to go to the Phillies, who have been extremely successful in every single one of their 2010’s postseason appearances.

Pepper Martin
7 years ago
Reply to  rasouddress

I was thinking the Yankees, with Giancarlo Stanton moving to first base, but sure.

cowdiscipleMember since 2016
7 years ago
Reply to  Pepper Martin

I don’t have any skin in this game, but I’m always happy to see fans of the huge market teams disappointed. Especially when they’re coveting other teams’ stars.

SenorGato
7 years ago

Steal

I might have maybe enjoyed it more watching the owners collude during his FA as people defend their outward inaction, but I guess the MLB gets to hang around a little longer this way.

Richie
7 years ago
Reply to  SenorGato

I actually concur with the “Steal” part. He’s barely making more AAV than Greinke? If baseball inflation continues at its going rate (and presuming the next labor contract will goose the free agent market back closer to its historical norm), I think Trout left 9 figures on this table.

JLanDC
7 years ago

Remember all that talk about how MLB free agent values were scaling down?

markymarc767Member since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  JLanDC

Remember when every other player isn’t literally the best player by age 27?

dustin0224
7 years ago
Reply to  JLanDC

Trout was 2 seasons away from free agency

TwinPeaks
7 years ago

That actually seems like a bargain. Compared to Machado’s & Harper’s contract, Trout is probably worth around $600 million. But with injury risk factored in, that was probably never going to happen.

slamcactusMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  TwinPeaks

Injury and decline. The contract takes him significantly farther into his 30s than either Harper’s or Machado’s.

I’m as big a Trout fanboy as it’s possible for a Mariners fan to be and I’d be willing to bet on him providing value even at ages 36-39, but that’s pretty old in an era where careers are shorter on average than they were 1-2 decades ago.

rhdx
7 years ago
Reply to  slamcactus

No it doesn’t. Harper signed for 13 years.

slamcactusMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  rhdx

You’re right. I was thinking Trout’s last year would be his age 39 season (to Harper’s 38) but I was off by a year. Trout’s close to the borderline (born August 7, cutoff June 30) that makes him “old” for his age-season the way baseball tracks such things. Threw me off.

fjtorres
7 years ago
Reply to  TwinPeaks

$660M.
He out produces them both, combined, so getting paid double would not be outrageous. $55M AAV.
But $430M isn’t half bad. Puts him over $500Mcareer earnings.

jb1245
7 years ago

Too bad Sullivan didn’t get to write this one.

ShauncoreMember since 2019
7 years ago

Knowing that there are incredible error bars on long-term projections, $/WAR and in turn value and surplus value, and maybe he declines faster than the normal curve, etc…
comment image

That’s a whopper of a deal.

Part of me is mad that we have now been robbed twice of Mike Trout in free agency (who would be the greatest free agent in baseball history) but I’m not sure how much more he truly would have gotten in reality.

I also wonder if he was willing to forego free agency just two years away because he was worried about what the market will look like then, as baseball will still be under the current CBA.

Wonderful Terrific Monds
7 years ago
Reply to  Shauncore

I love Mike Trout as a player, but I don’t believe those WAR numbers or the $/WAR.

ShauncoreMember since 2019
7 years ago

$9M with 5% inflation

And I agree, like I said in my first sentence, there are giant error bars on these. But it’s hard to see how Trout isn’t worth at least several hundred million in excess of $430M

rhdx
7 years ago
Reply to  Shauncore

He gets hurt. That is how. And that risk is real for all players.

DougMember since 2019
7 years ago
Reply to  rhdx

Particularly for one who doesn’t seem all that concerned with his own well being if it comes into conflict with making a play.

ShauncoreMember since 2019
7 years ago
Reply to  rhdx

So then teams shouldn’t sign anyone then because they could all get hurt.

Dave TMember since 2016
7 years ago
Reply to  Shauncore

No, but teams are aware of the downside risk of long-term, high AAV commitments and therefore risk averse about them.

Echoing Wonderful Terrific Monds’ point, I’m very dubious that 97.1 WAR between ages 27 and 39 is a reasonable mean projection for Trout, even as great of a player as he is.

Using the search tool here, there are four position players who totaled more WAR over their age 27 to 39 seasons: Ruth, Bonds, Wagner, and Mays. And the totals start to drop off quickly as we move down the list: #10 (Schmidt) is below 80 WAR, #16 (Boggs) is below 70 WAR, and #29 (Brooks Robinson) is below 60 WAR. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=1871&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=27,39&filter=&players=0&page=1_50

I strongly suspect there’s a methodological problem with simply applying standard aging curves to players who are at an elite level in their 20’s. Expressing this problem a bit simplistically, a player who ends up missing time due to more injuries (whether chronic issues due to aging, or simply idiosyncratic injuries during games) will accumulate 0 WAR when out, whether his true talent when injured is 2 WAR, 5 WAR, or 8 WAR.

Dave TMember since 2016
7 years ago
Reply to  Dave T

* true talent when healthy, obviously not when injured

sadtromboneMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  Shauncore

I’m pretty sure that neither the $9M nor the 5% inflation are good assumptions.

That said, if you look at $8M with no inflation, you’re still winding up with massive surplus value. If he stays healthy (which is why he took the deal, because who knows what could happen).

dodgerbleu
7 years ago
Reply to  Shauncore

Assuming 9M a win now and large static annual increases to arrive at 16.16M a win in 2031, with zero decline until he’s 33 years old, is not something I can get on board with.

Starting at 5M a win, and going up .33M a year in $ per win so that a win in 2031 is 8.96M, with his decline starting in 2 years, at age 30 as it should, brings the value of the contract to $578M.

No need to dress this up. An amazing deal for an amazing player. But Jesus Harold Christ, stop with the 1.1B valuation, it just discredits everything…

ShauncoreMember since 2019
7 years ago
Reply to  dodgerbleu

What evidence is there that $/WAR is $5M?

FanGraphs has it at $8M/WAR and that’s using their numbers that haven’t been updated in years. So do you think $/WAR has gone down since 2012 or so?

All the valuation framework done over the past few years has had $/WAR significantly higher.

If you want to discuss that there are error bars on $9M/WAR with 5% inflation and a typical aging curve, okay, let’s discuss that. But I said as such in my post.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  Shauncore

Eno’s work is that it’s about at $7.9M, I believe. I can get on board with that. It looked like it was more like $7M based on some quick number crunching I did but everyone else in the comments section who has been tracking this has been finding it in the $7.5M-8M range, so I buy it.

The $9M/win is actually what teams got for it, not what the expected going rate was. This means when someone signs Pujols, we’re assuming that they are paying $200M to get 2 wins. This is a case where “revealed preference” doesn’t tell us that much because teams don’t have certainty about what they’re buying (not like buying a car, for example).

Mahoney
7 years ago
Reply to  dodgerbleu

Even easier math if you assume (a) Harper and Machado have set the market price for elite stars in their prime, and (b) Trout is very likely to outperform them both by at least 2 wins/year over the next 10-12 years. Getting an extra 2 wins/year for less than $10m/year is a no-brainer great tradeoff.

slamcactusMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  dodgerbleu

You heard the man. Stop acting like we’re talking about a multi-billion dollar industry here, guys. That totally discredits the discussion.

BenZobrist4MVP
7 years ago
Reply to  Shauncore

I agree with your overall point, but my understanding is that the deal will go through 2030, not 2031. And the standard aging curve usually has a steeper drop-off in the age 38 season.

ShauncoreMember since 2019
7 years ago
Reply to  BenZobrist4MVP

Yep you are right. It’s 0.75 WAR after 37, so let’s call it the three end seasons. That’s~$20M in value extra it needs to be adjusted down.

fjtorres
7 years ago
Reply to  Shauncore

Cut all those numbers by a third.
He’s still a monster and worth the money.
Even at half the projections: 44WAR.

Besides, if there is one case where paying a player for past production makes perfect sense, this is it. And the team paying is the team he earned it with.

Fair deal for both sides.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
7 years ago

So I think there was a general consensus that on the open market, if he kept performing like he has, Mike Trout would get $500M or more. If you think that a team should get a 75% or 80% discount for forgoing free agency (giving up the possible of a mega-payday for some certainty), than whether this deal is good for the Angels/Trout depends on how much work that “or more” part is doing.

I’m inclined to think that this is more or less a fair deal. If Mike Trout breaks his everything and is never the same, he guards against that catastrophic outcome with a half-billion dollars in earnings, but if he stays on his current trajectory it will be good deal for the Angels. He’ll still be good when Jo Adell and the other kids are up, and for Ohtani’s entire contract.

I like that it got done, and now the Angels need to sign Dallas Keuchel. Get this man a ring!

EDIT: It looks like it’s only About $370M in new money, since it rips up the last two years of Trout’s current deal. If so, this is really a 10 year, $370M extension relative to the free agent market, which is an ENORMOUS steal for the Angels. The Angels won here–this is way more than an 80% discount. Now they really have no excuses to sign Keuchel!

CozarMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Trout was already locked up for his age 27 and 28 years and would have been hitting free agency at 29, not 26 like Machado and Harper. He probably could have done a little better than 10/370 on the open market, but it isn’t an unreasonable discount to buy out the risk of an injury over the next two years.

rhdx
7 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I think you mean a 20% discount. An 80% discount suggests he should have been paid $1.85 billion over the last 10 years of the deal.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  rhdx

This, yes. 80% of the value of what he would have gotten. Sorry for the confusion, and thank you.

London Yank
7 years ago

In other news, the Yankees signed Gio Gonzalez to a minor league deal with incentives.

Jon
7 years ago
Reply to  London Yank

Boooo. Does Gio have more than a 2% chance of outperforming German?

Joe
7 years ago

queue the “this contract is illegal under California law” article from Ms. Ring

slamcactusMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  Joe

Why on earth would Sheryl say this contract is illegal?

Dave from DCMember since 2018
7 years ago
Reply to  slamcactus

Because under California law there is a maximum allowable contract length. It’s been written about here before, but it’s unclear if the law is applicable under the circumstances. No personal service contracts are enforceable past seven years.

Artie_Fufkin
7 years ago

As an Angels fan I am so happy that the annoying trash sports blogs will stop the “Angels MUST trade Trout now” or “Trout is coming to the Phillies” blog posts.

The “Angels are wasting Trouts years” will continue but they are just jealous SOBs that dont get to watch him on a nightly basis at The Big A. Long live Trout, today is a good day for Angels fans. Eppler can now get back to work digging this team out from the Dipoto years. They won’t need a long time before they are back to 2002-2009 form.

AlbyMember since 2017
7 years ago
Reply to  Artie_Fufkin

The problem is that nobody else gets to see him. And right now they’re about 5 starters short of a rotation.

Artie_Fufkin
7 years ago
Reply to  Alby

gotta figure between Heaney and Skaggs that’s like, what… 1 starter right… only 4 starters to go

rasouddress
7 years ago
Reply to  Artie_Fufkin

It’s zero starters. A bounceback from Harvey is their best shot at a starter at this point.

ashlandateam
7 years ago
Reply to  Alby

“Nobody gets to see Trout,” in a world with MLB.TV, is an extremely strange argument. It’s 2019 – every player on every team is as easy to see as making a comment on Fangraphs.

fjtorres
7 years ago
Reply to  ashlandateam

Plus with interleague play he’ll sooner or later visit every team in the NLas well the AL.

slamcactusMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  Artie_Fufkin

The Angels are wasting Trout’s best years. And yes, I’m totally jealous. What non-Angels fan wouldn’t be? Doesn’t make that point wrong.

Mahoney
7 years ago

Well done Angels!

Now I’m hoping that the Red Sox can find a way to fit a $36M/year AAV extension for Mookie into their budget….

fjtorres
7 years ago
Reply to  Mahoney

Alas, Cleveland fans have no such hope for Lindor.

AlbyMember since 2017
7 years ago

The second team in a metro area gets less coverage than most small-market teams. This ensures we East Coast, NL-team fans will virtually never get to see him play.

DougMember since 2019
7 years ago
Reply to  Alby

What makes you think any of the rest of us care? Oh, yeah, East Coast narcissism. Never mind.

NewtonsLaw
7 years ago

Letting Trout languish in that garbage of a franchise for his career is such a tragedy. Don’t you love Trout’s prime wasted on a team that wants to bat a negative WAR player 3rd in the order? It should be hard to screw up prime Trout and Ohtanti on the same team but the Angels will find a way to do it by letting a 42 year old Pujols play the field AND bat cleanup behind them.

Artie_Fufkin
7 years ago
Reply to  NewtonsLaw

Found the Phillies fan

PhilMember since 2016
7 years ago
Reply to  Artie_Fufkin

You’d have thought a Phillie fan would be used to batting a negative WAR player 3rd or 4th in the order.

NewtonsLaw
7 years ago
Reply to  Artie_Fufkin

As a Braves fan, the Phillies would be my 30th choice for him. I just abhor blatant inefficiency anywhere in the game. Pujols’ place in the Angels starting lineup has been in the most egregious error in baseball for 3 years running.

Richie
7 years ago
Reply to  NewtonsLaw

Well, with regard to Pujols alone, found a dead-on analysis. I’d hoped the managerial change meant that there was now room to at least push Albert down and away from Trout in the batting order, but that sure don’t look to be the case. Rather appears that Arte’s still nowhere near emotionally ready to cop to such a humongous personal professional mistake.

rasouddress
7 years ago
Reply to  NewtonsLaw

You’re clearly knowledgeable and have a good grip on Angels games. I’m sure you’ve seen at least 3 since 2013.

Which negative WAR player is batting 3rd? Do you even know who is on the Angels? If you’re exaggerating, why? There are plenty of easy low hanging fruit to punch at with Anaheim, but you smugly pick something that hasn’t been accurate in half a decade to show how much smarter you are than everyone.

NewtonsLaw
7 years ago
Reply to  rasouddress

Albert Pujols has another 3 years of haunting your franchise. You better hope Arte will open up the checkbook when their window opens up in 2022 after Big Al’s contract ends. It does not bode well that he was unwilling to shell out for a discounted Keuchel this year.

Come Down Easy
7 years ago
Reply to  rasouddress

In fact , in 2017 Pujols was a negative WAR player and he batted 3rd in more than half of their games. In 2018 he moved to 4th but still produced negative WAR. Chaining your best hitters is the best way to produce runs, and Pujols is breaking up the Trout, Upton, Ohtani, Simmons chain and unfortunately this is likely to continue for the next 3 years.

Stevil
7 years ago

Even as a Mariner fan, I think this is great. He came up an Angel, he should retire an Angel, and he should enter the Hall as an Angel.

With that out of the way, the Angels can get back to their current state of mediocrity.

miltonfriedman
7 years ago
Reply to  Stevil

You probably didn’t say that with Beltre and Cano

rhdx
7 years ago
Reply to  miltonfriedman

I think Beltre’s time with the Mariners was nothing special. And while Cano performed well he was probably happy they traded him this offseason.

Stevil
7 years ago
Reply to  rhdx

You can bet Jerry and the front office in Seattle were thrilled they were actually able to move that contract this offseason. That was huge for Seattle.

Stevil
7 years ago
Reply to  miltonfriedman

Right, because every Mariner fan jumped up and down with glee, believing their time in the sun had come after Beltre was signed, and again with the arrival of Cano.

fjtorres
7 years ago
Reply to  miltonfriedman

Neither came up first with Seattle.
But Edgar did.

miltonfriedman
7 years ago

With all the poor people in America, nobody deserves that amount of money

PhilMember since 2016
7 years ago
Reply to  miltonfriedman

Maybe you should change your name from “miltonfriedman” then if you’re unhappy with rich people?

miltonfriedman
7 years ago
Reply to  Phil

Is there only 1 Milton Friedman? Rich people cause poor people to stay poor

PhilMember since 2016
7 years ago
Reply to  miltonfriedman

I think your namesake might have some different arguments to make about that…

miltonfriedman
7 years ago
Reply to  Phil

What would that argument be?

martyvan90Member since 2017
7 years ago
Reply to  miltonfriedman

Uncle Milty, please look at the bright side by the time the contract runs out AOC (or someone on her “team”) will be President and Mr. Trout will “only” get to keep $10 million per year and “the people” will allocate the rest. 😉

miltonfriedman
7 years ago
Reply to  martyvan90

You really believe a socialist will be president in 10 years? One can believe

Richie
7 years ago
Reply to  miltonfriedman

This ‘friedman’ actually does sound very much a socialist. More seriously speaking, take away the huge public subsidies professional sports gets (and maybe some future AOC might??) and every longterm player contract will look instantly bad.

fjtorres
7 years ago
Reply to  miltonfriedman

They will also genetically engineer pigs with wings by them.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  miltonfriedman

You would think that someone with the username “Milton Friedman” would have googled the name before using it. (And, if this is MF’s actual name, that he would have come across his namesake at some point)

slamcactusMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  miltonfriedman

I must’ve missed the part where the Angels were weighing their options between spending $430 million on Trout and donating that same $430 million to food banks and affordable housing projects. If that was the case, then yeah Trout should be ashamed of himself.

Stevil
7 years ago
Reply to  miltonfriedman

You’re on a roll today.

dcweber99
7 years ago

I knew I should have been the best baseball player of my generation instead of a lawyer.

miltonfriedman
7 years ago
Reply to  dcweber99

Nice subtle brag

jim fetterolf
7 years ago

Angels got a nice discount on this one.

rlwhite
7 years ago

In 2 years, the Angels will still have Trout, but they might not have a stadium to play in. Priorities!

PhilMember since 2016
7 years ago
Reply to  rlwhite

There are lots of stadiums!

There is only one Trout.

DougMember since 2019
7 years ago
Reply to  Phil

This. Any idiot can build a stadium (and many do). Nobody has yet figured out how to build a Mike Trout.

rlwhite
7 years ago
Reply to  Phil

I’m not saying they made the wrong call; just that it’s an interesting one.

CC AFCMember since 2016
7 years ago

“Well, now we DEFINITELY won’t trade Yadi for Trout now that he’s making all that money.”

– All BFIBs today

GTOBalance
7 years ago

Both the biggest contract ever and most underpaid guy ever at the same time……disappointed we didnt get to see what free agency offers he would have gotten.

WaldoInSCMember since 2017
7 years ago

But all that is the past. Theyre signing him for the future.

runningfrog
7 years ago

This contract extension is the most Mike Trout thing ever.

He’s never cared about the money. Doesn’t want the spotlight. Doesn’t want news coverage. Doesn’t want months of people talking about him. Lets Harper strut like a peacock for months and then signs a bigger deal one day before the season starts with no fanfare.

It’s the equivalent of politicians dropping news on a Friday afternoon. He didn’t want endless ongoing discussion. Announce the deal right before it gets buried with other coverage and move on.

I know MLB wishes Trout was more like LeBron and wanted media coverage. But he’s just going to go about his business, hide in the Dodgers’ shade, avoid the spotlight, and be rightfully paid like the best player in history. And there won’t be any question which logo goes on his plaque in Cooperstown.

Richie
7 years ago
Reply to  runningfrog

Come the off-season, Trout goes back to New Jersey, doesn’t he? That was my impression, anyway. i dunno, maybe he just goes back for family stuff?

fjtorres
7 years ago
Reply to  runningfrog

He got paid without looking like a moneygrubbing mercenary..
He seems to be a pretty clever guy. Or he has a good agent. Or both.

outdoorminerMember since 2020
7 years ago

Isn’t Kershaw 2nd in Fangraphs WAR for 2011-2018? I think you ran only batters.

The GuruMember since 2026
7 years ago

Wow, Angels got a steal. He would’ve gotten what machado and Harper got combined if he waited until FA