Padres Push In All Their Chips, Agree to Deal for Juan Soto and Josh Bell

After months of rumors and loud whispering, the mega-trade for Juan Soto has finally happened, with the winner being the San Diego Padres. It’s hard to overstate the impact of a trade like this; while stars are always traded, Soto is a very young and already quite accomplished player with generational-type talent, and players in that category do not change uniforms by trade all that often. I’m already tempted to type this piece in all capital letters, damaging the eyes of our esteemed editors; the Padres adding an excellent rental in Josh Bell just makes it an even harder test for my willpower.
The stable of talent sent to Washington is impressive, as it should be. Heading to D.C. are starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore, shortstop C.J. Abrams, outfielder Robert Hassell III, outfielder James Wood, pitcher Jarlin Susana, and first baseman Eric Hosmer. For the Nationals, any lingering concerns that someone would have to take Patrick Corbin, thus reducing the value of the return significantly, have now safely evaporated, and they’ll now have to turn to other options there. The Padres even fulfilled Washington’s desire to include a major leaguer who can help the team win games right now in the form of Gore. There are still issues to iron out with Hosmer’s no-trade clause, but for now, we’re going to look at this trade with the assumption that this works out, one way or the other. One possibility is an effort to get a third team into the mix, one that is interested in Hosmer’s services and not on his no-trade list, or at least a team he’d be more willing to waive the clause to join. Who that would be exactly is a tricky question; maybe the Royals?
UPDATE: Hosmer has officially vetoed his move to Washington, though the trade will still go ahead without his involvement. San Diego now has an interesting contract situation to resolve this afternoon.
UPDATE 2: Hosmer is now heading to Boston, per multiple reports, with fellow first baseman Luke Voit now part of the Soto trade in his stead.
UPDATE 3: The deal is now official: Soto and Bell for Voit, Gore, Hassell III, Wood, and Susana.
To wet your whistle — my colleague Ben Clemens will be around shortly with a full rundown of the particulars of this trade, and Eric Longenhagen will run through the prospects — here are some projections which I swear aren’t fan service. (Year-by-year projections for Wood and Susana are unfortunately beyond ZiPS’ scope at this stage of their careers.) Some may be disappointed that Soto’s numbers aren’t quite what they were last year, but his defense looks worse and he’s not quite at his normal level of offense. But considering ZiPS has only “downgraded” his top comp to Carl Yastrzemski, it’s still a great projection!
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | DR | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | .284 | .446 | .545 | 517 | 113 | 147 | 29 | 2 | 34 | 104 | 152 | 107 | 14 | 172 | -6 | 6.6 |
| 2024 | .283 | .450 | .550 | 509 | 114 | 144 | 30 | 2 | 34 | 104 | 156 | 110 | 14 | 174 | -7 | 6.6 |
| 2025 | .280 | .453 | .555 | 503 | 115 | 141 | 29 | 2 | 35 | 105 | 160 | 113 | 15 | 176 | -7 | 6.7 |
| 2026 | .277 | .455 | .554 | 495 | 114 | 137 | 28 | 2 | 35 | 103 | 163 | 114 | 13 | 177 | -7 | 6.6 |
| 2027 | .273 | .457 | .551 | 479 | 112 | 131 | 27 | 2 | 34 | 99 | 163 | 112 | 13 | 177 | -8 | 6.4 |
| 2028 | .271 | .453 | .541 | 468 | 107 | 127 | 26 | 2 | 32 | 94 | 156 | 106 | 13 | 173 | -8 | 6.0 |
| 2029 | .269 | .451 | .531 | 450 | 101 | 121 | 24 | 2 | 30 | 89 | 150 | 99 | 12 | 170 | -8 | 5.5 |
| 2030 | .264 | .443 | .516 | 436 | 94 | 115 | 23 | 3 | 27 | 82 | 141 | 93 | 12 | 164 | -9 | 4.8 |
| 2031 | .260 | .432 | .487 | 423 | 85 | 110 | 21 | 3 | 23 | 74 | 128 | 86 | 10 | 153 | -9 | 3.8 |
| 2032 | .257 | .420 | .467 | 405 | 77 | 104 | 19 | 3 | 20 | 67 | 115 | 77 | 9 | 145 | -10 | 2.9 |
| Year | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 8 | 6 | 4.14 | 30 | 27 | 137.0 | 128 | 63 | 14 | 64 | 135 | 105 | 2.1 |
| 2024 | 8 | 7 | 4.02 | 31 | 28 | 143.3 | 129 | 64 | 15 | 66 | 144 | 108 | 2.3 |
| 2025 | 8 | 6 | 3.96 | 30 | 27 | 141.0 | 124 | 62 | 14 | 63 | 144 | 110 | 2.4 |
| 2026 | 8 | 6 | 3.96 | 27 | 25 | 127.3 | 112 | 56 | 13 | 57 | 130 | 110 | 2.2 |
| 2027 | 7 | 5 | 3.92 | 26 | 24 | 124.0 | 108 | 54 | 13 | 55 | 129 | 111 | 2.1 |
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | DR | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | .254 | .308 | .371 | 464 | 68 | 118 | 27 | 0 | 9 | 48 | 27 | 104 | 16 | 80 | 3 | 1.7 |
| 2024 | .261 | .316 | .397 | 448 | 68 | 117 | 28 | 0 | 11 | 50 | 27 | 97 | 16 | 89 | 4 | 2.3 |
| 2025 | .259 | .319 | .403 | 459 | 71 | 119 | 30 | 0 | 12 | 53 | 31 | 105 | 16 | 91 | 4 | 2.5 |
| 2026 | .259 | .320 | .412 | 459 | 72 | 119 | 31 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 32 | 107 | 15 | 94 | 4 | 2.6 |
| 2027 | .259 | .323 | .420 | 459 | 74 | 119 | 32 | 0 | 14 | 57 | 34 | 109 | 15 | 96 | 4 | 2.9 |
| 2028 | .258 | .324 | .419 | 453 | 73 | 117 | 31 | 0 | 14 | 57 | 35 | 110 | 15 | 97 | 4 | 2.9 |
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | DR | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | .242 | .301 | .385 | 499 | 67 | 121 | 24 | 1 | 15 | 66 | 41 | 133 | 16 | 82 | -3 | 1.0 |
| 2024 | .247 | .309 | .402 | 478 | 67 | 118 | 25 | 2 | 15 | 67 | 42 | 125 | 16 | 88 | -3 | 1.3 |
| 2025 | .255 | .320 | .429 | 483 | 71 | 123 | 26 | 2 | 18 | 74 | 45 | 122 | 16 | 97 | -3 | 2.0 |
| 2026 | .254 | .323 | .435 | 481 | 73 | 122 | 26 | 2 | 19 | 75 | 48 | 123 | 16 | 100 | -4 | 2.1 |
| 2027 | .255 | .326 | .445 | 479 | 73 | 122 | 27 | 2 | 20 | 76 | 50 | 124 | 15 | 103 | -4 | 2.3 |
| 2028 | .252 | .326 | .436 | 473 | 73 | 119 | 26 | 2 | 19 | 75 | 51 | 123 | 14 | 101 | -4 | 2.1 |
Much more to come.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
As a Nats fan, I can simultaneously understand that this is one of the biggest prospect packages ever and feel that its not close to enough. Merrill or Zavala. Morejon. I wanted more.
I think the Bell for Hosmer (or equivalent) upgrade is at least worth something. The bottom line is that you had to look at the deal being 2 1/2 years of Soto for the best possible package, unless you could find a trade partner that felt super sure they’d lock him up long-term.
That said, this is a (very bittersweet) win for the Nats, given that the Soto-in-Washington ship had finished sailing.
I totally agree. There really isn’t a prospect deal that would have satisfied me if I were a Nats fan.
Concur. It’s a lot, and yet at the same time not nearly enough and everyone knows it.
It doesn’t appear that Soto wanted to be in Washington. Once the league realizes that, you get less for him than you would have otherwise. The Nats got the most they could for him while he still had multiple years on his contract. And the reason San Diego won the bidding war is presumably because they offered more for Soto than anyone else. If no one is offering any more than that, you can’t get any more than that.
What would you have considered fair value?
-3 years of Chris Sale went for a 65 (Moncada) and 55 (Kopech) + $31M for Moncada’s contract.
-2 years of Matt Olson went for 2 50’s (Langeliers and Pache).
2.5 years of Soto + $39M (Hosmer’s contract) goes for a 60 and 3 50’s*. I know Zips’ projections on the prospects look pedestrian, but projections on prospects are supposed to look that way. Getting 4 of the top 100 gives the Nats a high probability of one of them becoming a perennial 3+ win player and 1 or 2 more of them becoming at least tradeable role players. It would have been nice to get a higher-ceiling 65, but the highest prospect on THE BOARD right now is only a 60 and I don’t think the Orioles want to trade Rutschman or the Mariners Julio Rodriguez.
*40+ Susana is a bit higher for Bell than the Diamondbacks giving up 40 Dawel Lugo for rental JD Martinez back in 2017. I think some of the premium goes for taking Hosmer’s contract which I would view as the prospect value trading for 3 years of a 2-win player — which would probably be something like 2 40+’s and a 40.
I am not certain about this but I am wondering if this is the biggest prospect package ever in major league history. Obviously in retrospect you can reassess it and say the return was bigger. But in terms of how the players were viewed at the time, the standard I always used was Teixeira and this is likely bigger than that.
Biggest prospect hauls (as they were thought of at the time) that I can remember:
Bartolo Colon for Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips, and Lee Stevens (If I remember correctly Sizemore, Lee, and Phillips were all top-20 prospects at the time)
Mark Teixeira for Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Beau Jones
Brian Giles for Jason Bay, Oliver Perez, and Corey Stewart
Joe Carter for Sandy Alomar Jr., Carlos Baerga, and Chris James
JD Drew for Adam Wainwright, Jason Marquis, and Ray King
AJ Pierzynski for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Boof Bonser
I can’t vouch for where they were ranked as prospects at the time, but the trade that I always think of is Glenn Davis for Curt Schilling, Steve Finley, AND Pete Harnisch. Ouch.
That first one is potentially the biggest prospect haul in retrospect. And if they were all considered Top 20 prospects then it would probably be the biggest one overall as seen at the time.
I don’t remember the exact listings of the other one but unless Sandy Alomar Jr. and Carlos Baerga were both considered Top 20 prospects I’m guessing this would slot in between the Colon deal and the others.
Only Phillips was a top 20 prospect at the time of the Colon trade. Baseball America had him at #20 for the 2002 season, which was the year the trade was made. Neither Sizemore nor Lee made the top 100 list. The following year, after the trade, BA has Phillips at #7 and Lee at #30. The year after that, Sizemore was #9.
Yeah gotta go for the Colon trade. Even at the time people were aware that it was a huge haul. I don’t think this one matches up.
Here’s how I would look at this if I were a Nats fan:
I just got the Padres to trade me 4 of their top 5 prospects, plus another top 10 prospect in their system, for a guy hitting .246 who’s been the 4th worst defensive player in baseball this year, who’s tied in fWAR with Willy Adames, and has fewer home runs than CJ Cron. It’s highway robbery for a player who should already be DH’ing at age 23, and who’s closer to Yandy Diaz as a hitter than he is to Freddie Freeman.
Maybe that outlook will help Nats fans sleep tonight.
as a Nats fan in mourning, I appreciate the creativity.
Totally possible. We’ll see
Fascinating trade. NL West contenders continue loading up on superstars.
Thank you Dan, very cool!
So the Padres now have Soto and Tatis for 2.5 years and they swapped Josh Bell for Hosmer while getting out of hosmer’s contract? Flawless victory, Pads
They’d only have gotten out of his contract for this year; apparently they were still on the hook for the rest. Moot point since Hosmer has refused to waive his clause, though. Apparently the trade is still on, it just might be Will Myers instead of Hosmer?
Just checked on Cots’ Contracts, and Myers doesn’t have any kind of no-trade clause to hold things up. This has to be (at least part of) the backup plan for Hosmer saying no.
And it’s not like they actually need anyone they traded. It’s just depth. Yes they could become the Angels, but they could easily become a World Series co-favorite for 3 years.
For the past few years being a Dodger fan Ive come to enjoy the perpetual bridesmaid status of the Padres in every major trade. It sucks for them to finally get there in maybe the best of them.
Sort of an inverse of last year where the Dodgers sniped Max by going bigger to add Turner. I doubt the Dodgers were bidding on Bell.
The Padres might have the worst farm in the game now, but Soto is even money to out-produce all of those guys combined in rest-of-career WAR. Of course he’ll also cost half a billion dollars at some point.
Pretty hard to argue with getting a 23 year old megastar, though. Presumably they intend to extend him.
And the A’s might have moved from worst to 15th best. I would trade places with the Padres in a millisecond
No doubt. The Pads are good now and will be for at least a few more years. The As might be good three years from now if everything works out.
It’s sure tough to do this deal and still probably be the underdog in your division going forward, if likely a narrow one
That’ll be interesting. Kershaw and J. Turner will be a year older, Buehler and May will be coming off injury, T. Turner is a free agent, Muncy has been hurt and relatively unproductive. I wouldn’t care to guess right now who’ll be the ZiPS 2023 preseason favorite.
I’d have thought right now it would be the Padres (assuming that impeding free agents, like Trea Turner and Clayton Kershaw, aren’t included).
The Dodgers are going to have a lot of interesting decisions to make in the offseason, while I think the Padres team seems pretty much set this year and next (though, who knows what AJ Preller thinks about that).
I almost think the 2023 Padres would be on top even if you put T. Turner and Kershaw back on the Dodgers. Soto more than makes up the difference from this spring.
Obviously the Dodgers have tons of resources, all offseason, and are pretty good at what they do. Who knows. It’s safe to say they’ll both be in the NL top 4, I think.
At the risk of being a killjoy, according to both Fangraphs and B-Ref Juan Soto is “only” a 5.3 WAR guy per 600 PAs for his career. Not really a generational talent once his running and glovework are included. The gaudy ZiPS projections of 6.5 to 7 WAR are a bit hard to fathom, given his 5-season track record.
Also, get off my lawn.
I am astonished that the Nats agreed to take Hosmer. After all the talk of packaging Corbin with Soto, they ended up adding another one of baseball’s worst contracts instead of subtracting Corbin’s. I hope for Washington’s sake that the Padres are eating most it.
I’m surprised that they did it, but adding dead money now to improve the prospect package is what they should be doing if the long term goal is to have a good team.
Hosmer’s contract is only $13M annually for the next 3 years so it isn’t quite as bad as I assumed. He also has an opt-out after this year that there is a chance he could exercise. I doubt he could do as well as 3/39 on the FA market, but I suspect that he views himself differently than the league does even moreso that most players.
Hosmer exercising his opt-out, and then re-signing with the Padres would be hilarious
I think that, since they will be having a small payroll in the near future (even with Strasburg and Corbin), it made the most sense to take on a bit of a bad contract if it maxed out the prospect return.
Supposedly the Nats are only picking up the rest of this year and the Padres are still paying 2023-2025. Of course, all that’s contingent on Hosmer’s approval.
I suppose this is a moot point anyway if Hos is exercising his NTC, although Myers is on a pretty vile contract too
Myers has a club option for next year with a $1M buyout, very different than Hosmer’s
If I’m a Nats fan, I would treat that as a pleasant surprise. That’s what a team like the Nationals should be doing.
Exactly. Especially when earlier reports said they’d do the opposite (include Corbin and therefore weaken the return).
I’ve got to think that the plan B here, if Hosmer rejects the trade, is either (a) Myers goes to the Nats in his place and/or (b) Hosmer gets dumped to one of the teams not on his no-trade list for a PTBNL or 40-man flotsam that then gets flipped to Washington.
I’m quite sure Rizzo, Preller et al made sure there was a backup plan if Hosmer held the deal up. Too much of a best-case outcome for both sides to risk it falling apart at the very last second.
I imagine he’d waive the NTC if the Padres and Nats agree to buy him a nice little place in DC.
But then who pays Hosmer? They might have to find another bad contract on a Non-NTC team and offer a sweetener to get them to care about this.
Well, if it’s true the Nats were only on the hook for Hosmer’s remaining 2022 salary, then moving Myers would accomplish the same salary impact for the Padres.
But even if that’s the case, they should probably move Hosmer, even if eating 95% of his salary, just to not have the now-dissed clubhouse leader sitting on the bench in the aftermath of all this.
I guess they could play Bell at DH
I don’t think he can get flipped to Washington. He’s got the Nats on his 10 team no-trade list.
To my eyes, this is inferior to the haul for Castillo.
That’s certainly a take. Who are you down on in this trade/high on in the Castillo deal?
It’s better, but not significantly better. The Castillo package plus Kelenic and Hancock would have been comfortably better than this return in my eyes.
Plus no Hosmer
SD adds Bell, subtracts Hosmer (theoretically). Abrams is a better prospect than Marte, but not by much. Gore helps, but he’s not the stud he was as a prospect. Two kids (Wood & Susana).
I guess “inferior” is too strong. Maybe equal?
Plus Hassell. The Third.
Only a top 50 prospect. Probably wasn’t worth mentioning
Maybe he’s more appealing just for fantasy, but you can see ZIPS projects Bobby Barrels as a 15/15 player with fulltime PT next season
Gore is 23, certainly not a finished product yet. “Two kids”, certainly undersells Wood and Susana, especially when the 2nd best prospect Castillo garnered is younger than Wood.
Absolutely no way. Even if you like Noelvi Marte more than Abrams–and I would classify them as equivalent–James Wood and Hassell III are definitely ahead of Arroyo, and Jarlin Susana is interesting too. And that’s before get to Mackenzie Gore.
No, this is so far ahead of the haul for Castillo that I don’t know how you could compare them.
Wood looks special. Some fantasy lists already say he is getting close to top 10 fantasy prospect.
I’m amazed that the Nationals didn’t just sell the team with Soto and let the new owners deal with the contract. I can’t believe that this version of the team is more attractive than yesterday’s to every single prospective buyer. There have to have been buyers who would prefer having a generational talent in a major market to build around. Anyone who’s willing to deal with the MASN mess isn’t going to sweat dealing with Soto.
It sounds like they have the buyer lined up since they expect to close by the end of the year. I can’t imagine they make the deal without running it by the new ownership, so it must be that the new owners didn’t want Soto and wanted the Lerners to be the ones to trade him.
Then they better not back out
I think the same thing but then I’m a baseball fan and not a bazillionaire asshole.
My understanding is that the new owners preferred that Soto either be signed to an extension or traded so they didn’t have to make an unpopular decision.
It’s a business, that’s why.
FuckinA if the Royals were to hire the Rays front office for a day, I would LOOOOOVE to see them involved as a third team…
If you were that hypothetical Rays-> Royals exec, what would it take to convince you to take on 2022-2025 Eric Hosmer?
Soto would be a good start
I don’t know what the prospect cost was for the Nationals to take on Hosmer’s deal (and DFA him, I would have guessed) but James Wood, the lowest rated prospect of the group that SD is sending over sure looks good enough…
Assuming, of course, that the Royals aren’t on his no-trade list…
The fact that James Wood is arguably the worst prospect of the 5 traded away speaks to the magnitude of this deal.
The same James Wood that is listed as the #66 overall prospect in MLB on this site?
Seeing updates having him approaching top 10
He was good in Videodrome
Feel like the Cubs are losing leverage big time. Padres out and Astros out. Hoyer might not be the best GM. Everyone waiting until the last minute when they perhaps could have struck early. I could be wrong too. Feel free to correct me if so.
The Nats couldn’t even get someone with a 3+ WAR projection back? What? That’s brutal.
Good luck finding any prospects with 3 WAR projections. That’s not how prospects work.
The point is the Nats got a bad return. They could have acquired young MLB players who do have 3+ WAR upside, not just prospects, is the other side of it.
A projection of 2.9 WAR =/= an upside of 2.9 WAR. If a player is projected at 4 WAR then their 90th percentile upside may be 6.5 (for example).
Abrams is projected for 2.9, I think it’s close enough.
Seriously, there are not that many prospects that are projected for 3 wins. Julio Rodriguez was, and you saw how that turned out.
Exactly, they didn’t get any real high upside players for a generational talent. Be it in prospects or young players already in the majors. Nowhere did I say they only could have received prospects back.
The probability of almost anyone in A-ball turning into an MLB star is relatively low, no matter what they’re doing.
But if you are saying a guy projected to have be a 50 hit, 70 raw power and play an average center field is not “real high upside” it’s time for you to log off. He is arguably the single most exciting prospect currently in A-ball. More than Marcelo Mayer. More than Brady House.
In fact, I’d argue that aside from Eury Perez and Druw Jones (and maybe Jackson Chourio), he’s the single best prospect under age 20. Guys like Jackson Holliday and Termarr Johnson are exciting but they would have to dramatically outperform expectations to match what Wood is doing.
And that’s before we consider that CJ Abrams’ projection doesn’t really capture the upside, only the mean or median (not sure which here) that ZiPs is projecting. He could very easily have a 5-win season in there.
Well. A decade of watching the Nats has resulted in them giving away (often for nothing) Harper, Turner, Rendon, and now Soto.
I’m done with this franchise for a long time. This kind of mismanagement should be a crime.
It’s how I would feel. A’s do it habitually but I still sympathize.
Mismanaged them all the way to a World Series victory!
i don’t see myself doing anything more than cursory check ins on the nats for the next 3 years. they have certainly cost themselves the fanbase, but they don’t care! the lerners were never in it to make anyone other than themselves happy and richer.
You did also get to see them win the World Series in that decade.
Also, if you want Rendon back, I’m pretty sure the Angels front office will happily trade him to the Nats for nothing in return.
At least your team made the playoffs repeatedly and won a World Series first. Could be worse!
Cordially,
Reds fans
Didn’t they win a World Series?
Hosmer is a negative for both the Padres and the Nationals. If the Royals want him back because of their fanbase, a third team deal might make sense. Short of that, if the Nationals won’t take him, maybe the Padres might keep one of six prospects–that the Nationals want the least.
I breathed a sigh of relief when it was announced Hosmer is going to Boston because I was terrified Dayton Moore would swoop in and pick him up. Between Pasquantino and Pratto already being up, and Dozier and O’Hearn still being on the roster, they really don’t need another first base type.
I wanted him back with the Royals so I could yell “ground it to second!” when I’m there to watch the Dodgers in a couple weekends
Ugly deal for Nationals.
Since Hosmer said no to waiving his no trade clause is the logical thing to do just to cut him and have the Nats send the Padres the money they would have paid him?
Anything over a million dollars has to be approved by the commissioner.
I imagine that the more likely scenario is that the Padres send him somewhere else.
Boston. At 90% discount, or thereabouts.
Now to see if the green monster gets him to elevate the ball.
(Yeah, right…)
Or just cut him and keep whomever they would have sent to Washington as inducement to take him
Big loss if they lose Hosmer. Leadership in the clubhouse, championship pedigree, and grit
Don’t forget the Gold Glove scoops over at base 1.
I enjoy that you created an account from another economist just to respond! That’s the commitment I expect from our readership
I didn’t see much playing time in San Diego for CJ Abrams playing behind Tatis anyway. Kim is already doing an adequate job of that. CJ Abrams’ best value was probably as a trading chip for an outfielder like Soto (rather than trying to convert Abrams into an outfielder). So, even if Abrams is a big plus for the Washington side of this trade, I don’t think the Padres gave up too much by losing CJ Abrams specifically.
Losing RHIII hurts.
If the Nats don’t get Hosmer, there is NO way they should do this deal. Abram’s is only going to get 48 RBI’s next year, with Hosmer they get 48+71=119 RBI’s, which is more than Soto gets, so they win the deal. Without Hosmer, that can not happen.
From a Padres fan, I think Hosmer is a negative. I think the Nats got an extra prospect in exchange for taking Hosmer off the Padres’ hands. Hosmer’s value in San Diego was mostly as a leader in the locker room. The Padres are getting a superior first baseman in this trade. The Nationals are probably getting an extra prospect to balance it out.
Notice the author of the comment you’re replying to!
Also, the otherwise dripping with sarcasm-ness…
I invoke Poe’s Law!!!
Guitarist for the Eurythmics
as a nats fan i seem to be higher on this deal than most. for one, I am also a Soto fan and am thrilled he will be on such an exciting team. I think that overrules the benefit of getting walker from cards.
I am low on abrams and am honestly shocked hes ever been as highly regarded as he has been, but wood seems so awesome. Nats future core now could be green, wood (former teamates at IMG), house, abrams, garcia, and pitchers cavalli, gore, susana, henry. if 75% of those hit above league average, thats a workable core. I’m into it.
IN the meantime! I’ll enjoy the hell out of watching tatis and soto be the coolest players in the mlb together. lets go dads
Wow this has sparked a lot of discussion already, huh?
I’m of the opinion that when making a trade, I want to get the best player in the deal and giving up top prospects is not a problem. Prospects don’t always pan out, or take a long time to do so. Win now, worry about next year later. SD wins.
True but only on pure talent trades, which this is.
Mostly.
Hosmer to Boston, however…
the biggest losers here: the giants. so much for that crazy run last year. the rockies may have a better 3 year outlook lol
Hosmer a fit in Boston? He’s a poor-performing first baseman, who’d be a big upgrade over even poorer-performing first basemen. Plus, Chaim Bloom’s new penchant for taking on overpaid, not-good players (see Slappy Pham) = good fit.
If he’s DFAed by the Padres, Hosmer might be a good backup option if the Sox can’t convince Mitch Moreland to give it one more go.
Hosmer for Charlie Blackmon. Who says no? Oh, right, everyone.
(see also–Jason Heyward, Marcell Ozuna, Mike Moustakas)
I’m trying to imagine what level of sweetener a team like the Red Sox would require to take on his contract. Campusano would definitely do it, but might be too rich; Jackson Merrill, perhaps.
I know Hosmer wants to play for a contender, so I think he’d agree to coming here. But even if the Padres weren’t worried about a division rival, I’m not sure I’d give Charlie up unless they added Myers and we could convince him to sign an extension.
Well, you sure nailed that one.
Indeed.
I do wonder if Hosmer’s batted ball profile will work better at Fenway than in San Diego.
For my own notes, as much as anyone else…
In surplus value–
FV60 prospect: $55M-60M (x1)
FV55 prospect: $35M-45M (x1)
FV50 prospect: $20M-$30M (x2)
FV40+ prospect: ~$3M-5M
So this is about $150M in surplus value going back to the Nationals, at least it was before Hosmer dropped out of the deal. I had pegged Soto for going for $125M in surplus value, but Hosmer (now not in the deal) and Bell going back makes it not a straight comparison.
I’m of the mind that Nats got fair value, as much as you can even get fair value for someone like Soto. It’s a franchise altering trade for both good and bad.
Wouldn’t Soto have to be worth about 20 WAR over the next 2+ seasons to put up $125M in surplus value? I’ve got him pegged at 80-85 after factoring in arbitration salaries. (Still think it’s a balanced trade.)
Just think— the Friars will have Soto, Tatis Jr., and Machado in the same lineup, and a pitching staff where Hader closes games for Darvish, Musgrove, Clevinger, and pals. Jeeeez Louise!
And still less impressive than what LAD sends out every night. NL West is so tough
As a chaotic neutral, it amuses me greatly that this thread is largely people making jokes sarcastically praising Hosmer’s ability and people corrected that first group that Hosmer isn’t actually that great.
At least one of those was a person sincerely praising Hosmer and someone thinking they were being sarcastic and trying to pile on. Sarcasm on the internet is hard.
As a chaotic neutral, you must have surely loved NotGraphs!!!
I predict is going to be called The Eric Hosmer Trade, for the same reasons The Nick Punto trade between the Red Sox and Dodgers got its name.
This would be even more ironic (and therefore even better) since Eric Hosmer wasn’t even in the final trade.
I’m in the minority here, but I think this is a pretty fair deal for WAS, though we will know more when we find out what happens with Hosmer opting out.
There is a non-zero possibility that these excellent prospects and Gore provide more WAR over the next six years than Soto over 2.3 years. If Gore turns into a ~3.50 ERA pitcher next year and the next …
Of course, they are prospects, and could crash and burn. And it’s likely that if healthy, Soto is worth more. But there is still hope for WAS….
And Soto’s WAR would still be more valuable even in that best case scenario because the Padres would be getting it all from one lineup spot in the middle of a competitive window, whereas the Nats would be getting it spread out on a team we don’t know will even be good yet.
Oh, this is definitely good value. It’s just unfortunate that this was how it went down.
My Red Sox have taken on Hosmer…wut?
NOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hosmer the player is alright, as long as San Diego keeps Hosmer the contract.
I mean, if you’re into 0.5-1 WAR first basemen. With grit. Leaders of men.
Oh, I am!