Daily Prospect Notes: 5/25

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Jose Marmolejos, 1B, Washington (Profile)
Level: Double-A   Age: 24   Org Rank: 19   Top 100: NR
Line: 3-for-4, HR, BB

Notes
Marmolejos returned from a non-throwing forearm strain that required a 60-day DL stint on the 12th, and he has a hit each day since then. He’s got terrific bat-to-ball skills and is a good defensive first baseman but is blocked, not only at the big-league level by a resurgent Ryan Zimmerman, but at Triple-A by veteran Clint Robinson. He probably lacks the power to play every day, but it looks like he’s going to hit enough to merit a bench spot.

Read the rest of this entry »


Daily Prospect Notes: 5/24

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Ryan Burr, RHP, Arizona (Profile)
Level: Low-A   Age: 22   Org Rank: NR   Top 100: NR
Line: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 1 R, 3 K

Notes
Burr was remarkably consistent at Arizona State, sitting 93-96 with an above average slider each time I saw him. After dealing with injuries last year, he’s back to missing bats, albeit at a lower level than one might like to see from a college prospect in his second full pro season. He has setup-man upside if everything is intact.

Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Sports Info Solutions Information Technology Analyst

Position: Sports Info Solutions Information Technology Analyst

Location: Coplay, Pa.

Description:
The candidate will develop new features and products as well as help maintain existing internal and external products within a mature codebase. The ideal candidate will be responsible for building applications, including anything from back-end services to their client-end counterparts. The primary responsibilities will be to design and develop these applications, and to coordinate with the rest of the team working on different layers of the infrastructure. Therefore, a commitment to collaborative problem solving, sophisticated design, and quality product is essential.

Read the rest of this entry »


Daily Prospect Notes: 5/23

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Anthony Gose, LHP, Detroit (Profile)
Level: Hi-A   Age: 26   Org Rank: NR   Top 100: NR
Line: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 1 R, 1 K

Notes
Gose hasn’t technically been a prospect since 2012, but he’s attempting to stick the landing on a Reverse Ankiel and convert to the mound after nine pro seasons as an outfielder. Gose’s inability to hit at the big-league level has sparked whimsical discussion about a conversion because he’s very athletic, was up to 97 on the mound in high school, and had some breaking-ball feel. His fastball was hovering in the mid- to upper 90s during extended spring training as he got up to speed for affiliated ball.

Read the rest of this entry »


One Guy Gets More Chases Than Andrew Miller

What makes Andrew Miller so good? There’s a variety of contributing reasons — there’s the velocity, the fastball, the slider, the delivery, the body, the mentality, and so on and so on. Every part of Miller comes together to make him nearly perfect. But, what’s the mechanism? What’s the statistical explanation for Miller’s dominance? In essence, he warps the hitter’s idea of the strike zone. Hitters don’t swing at many strikes, and they swing at too many balls. They have the statistical discipline of bad-hitting pitchers.

So far this season, Miller has gotten opponents to swing at pitches out of the zone 43% of the time. Once again, that’s super high — by O-Swing%, Miller ranks second in baseball. There’s one guy in front of him. That one guy is Anthony Swarzak?

Sure, why not. It’s 31-year-old journeyman and minor-league-contract acquisition Anthony Swarzak, pitching out of the White Sox bullpen. I’ve already written about how Tommy Kahnle is overachieving. Now here’s Swarzak, too, basically out of nowhere. I’ve got a plot for you.

That’s Swarzak in red. Compared to last year, his O-Swing% against has improved by 14 percentage points, and his Contact% against has improved by 15 percentage points. So Swarzak is way, way out there, having now adjusted well to full-time relief. Let me take that back; Swarzak has mostly relieved for a while. First he was a starter. Then he was a swingman. Last year, with the Yankees, Swarzak for the first time dramatically increased his slider rate, overtaking his number of fastballs. Swarzak has kept that up in 2017. The difference this time around is in location. The Yankees got Swarzak to change his pitch mix rather aggressively. The White Sox have gotten Swarzak to focus on one specific area around the plate.

From Baseball Savant:

Last season, Swarzak threw 63% of his pitches to the glove-side half, which was one of the higher rates around. This season, Swarzak has thrown 85% of his pitches to the glove-side half, which ties him for the highest rate in the league. The next-closest pitcher trails by more than 10 percentage points. Swarzak works righties away, all the time. He works lefties inside, all the time. He throws his fastball to the glove-side, and he throws his slider to the glove-side. His locations have gotten precise, and consistent, and hitters haven’t really known what to do.

In January, Anthony Swarzak was basically nothing. I’m going to guess he signed with the White Sox because he figured there he stood a better chance of getting a big-league opportunity. He was right! And for a month and a half he’s been one of baseball’s more effective relievers. I don’t know what to tell you. This is our shared reality. How about Anthony Swarzak?


What in the Heck Has Gotten Into Chad Pinder?

Did you know that the A’s lead the American League in home runs? Here’s one of them:

Here’s another one of them:

Those are two mammoth home runs. More, those are two mammoth home runs hit by the same guy — one Chad Pinder. Pinder is a 25-year-old infielder who’s topped out as Baseball America’s No. 7 Oakland prospect. In Pinder’s best professional season to date, he went deep 15 times. He’s gone deep four times over his last six big-league starts.

Pinder clearly has pretty good power. Keep that in the back of your mind. There are nearly 1,700 players with at least 50 batted balls in each of the last two seasons, including both the minors and the majors. Here are the 10 players with the biggest drops in ground-ball rate:

Ground Ball Rate Drops, 2016 – 2017
Player 2016 GB% 2017 GB% GB Change
Alex Avila 52% 22% -30%
Tzu-Wei Lin 56% 31% -25%
Ti’Quan Forbes 59% 36% -23%
Matt McPhearson 71% 49% -22%
Vinny Siena 45% 23% -22%
Raffy Lopez 41% 20% -21%
Daniel Johnson 57% 36% -21%
Arturo Nieto 66% 45% -21%
Chad Pinder 42% 21% -21%
Steve Berman 43% 23% -21%

Whole bunch of minor leaguers. One Alex Avila out in front, about whom Dave just wrote. Avila has dropped his grounder rate by a stunning 30 percentage points, and that’s insane, but it’s also insane that Pinder is in ninth, having dropped his own grounder rate by 21 points. Pinder’s year-to-year track record:

  • 2013: 41% grounders
  • 2014: 46%
  • 2015: 48%
  • 2016: 42%
  • 2017: 21%

One of those stands out from the others, and although it’s still early, and although things can still shift, what’s remarkable is remarkable. Suddenly, Pinder looks like he’s become an extreme fly-ball hitter. There’s power there to back it up. You know how Yonder Alonso has dramatically changed his own batting profile? His grounder rate is down by 19 points. Pinder has slightly bested that.

And oh, hey, Statcast. Out of everyone in the majors with at least 30 batted balls this season, Pinder ranks second — second! — in average exit velocity. He ranks fifth in average air-ball exit velocity. He ranks seventh in rate of batted balls hit at least 95 miles per hour. Pinder has hit nine so-called “Barrels”, which ties him with, say, Carlos Correa and Anthony Rizzo, and Pinder hasn’t played very much. He’s basically insisting that he gets noticed.

So, consider him noticed. How far this goes, I can’t tell you. Dramatic early-season shifts don’t always reflect legitimate changes in true talent. Yet Pinder is off to a promising start, and just to the eye, his swing is quite pleasing. The A’s could have something here. The A’s could have something terrific.


Daily Prospect Notes: 5/22

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Bryan Reynolds, OF, San Francisco (Profile)
Level: Hi-A   Age: 22   Org Rank: 3   Top 100: HM
Line: 5-for-6, 2B, 3B

Notes
After a hot start, Reynolds cooled off and was hitting a shade under .260 as Sunday’s action began. That’s somewhat concerning for a big-school college hitter in the Cal League. San Jose is one of the few pitcher-friendly (barely) parks in that league and Reynolds’ home/road splits are evocative of that: his OPS is .541 at home and a .913 on the road.

Read the rest of this entry »


Matt Adams Joins the Braves… For Now

The season opened with a curious experiment that saw the Cardinals playing Matt Adams in left field. Adams is a large human being who, till this year, had been a first baseman — and, well, the whole left-field experiment didn’t go particularly well. Due to Matt Carpenter’s presence at first, Adams entered the weekend with just 53 plate appearances to his name — plate appearances in which he’d hit fairly well, but without his usual power.

It’s possible that some regular playing time could get Adams back to his old ways. The Atlanta Braves will be the ones to find out, as they traded for him on Saturday to fill in for the injured Freddie Freeman. Freeman had been playing like a superstar before being hit by a pitch and fracturing his wrist.

It’s a devastating blow to a Braves team that already wasn’t going anywhere in a hurry, but you can do a lot worse for a replacement than Adams.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Blue Jays Have Reportedly Called Up Anthony Alford

The Toronto Blue Jays have reportedly called up 22-year-old outfielder Anthony Alford from Double-A. It’s an aggressive promotion, albeit likely a temporary one. The organization’s No. 2-rated prospect would be filling a void created by Kevin Pillar’s suspension and an injury to Darrell Ceciliani.

Regardless of the duration of his stay, Alford has a bright future with Canada’s team. The former Ole Miss football player augments his athleticism with outstanding baseball instincts. In 141 plate appearances for the New Hampshire Fisher Cats, Alford was slashing .325/.411/.455, with three home runs and nine stolen bases in 10 attempts.

Gil Kim, Toronto’s director of player development, gave a snapshot rundown on the newest Blue Jay.

“Alford has made huge strides,” Kim told me earlier today.” He was a two-sport athlete, and I believe 2015 is the first year he fully committed to baseball. When you combine his character, makeup, and natural ability, and factor in the inexperience, I’m comfortable saying he’ll make quicker advances than most. He’s coming into his own, just focusing on baseball. He had a 2016 season that saw him progressively improve. He carried that into the AFL, and he’s obviously doing a very good job now in Double-A.”

Kim proceeded to double down on his opinion of Alford’s character.

“I can’t speak more highly of character and makeup in our organization than Anthony Alford. He’s an impressive human being. He’s going to be a very successful major-league baseball player, and he’s already a successful human being. If you talk to our field coordinator, Eric Wedge, or Angus Mugford, our high-performance director, Ben Cherington, Ross Atkins, Mark Shapiro — as we strive to create the culture, and environment, of what a Toronto Blue Jays player is, Anthony Alford is off the charts. He’s impressive, man.”


Job Posting: Seattle Mariners Sports Science/Performance Analytics Intern

Position: Seattle Mariners Performance Analytics Internship

Location: Safeco Field, Seattle WA

Description:

We are seeking an individual with a passion for baseball and statistical analysis. The position will work directly alongside the analytics team with an emphasis on sports science. There will be ample opportunity to impact decision-making. Start and end dates are flexible with a preference towards immediate availability.

Responsibilities:

  • Statistical modeling and analysis of a variety of data sources including Statcast and proprietary data sets
  • Ad hoc queries and quantitative research
  • Various game-day duties and support for all departments within Baseball Operations

Qualifications:

  • A strong foundation in mathematics, statistics, computer science and/or engineering.
  • Demonstrated competency with either R or Python
  • Track record of original baseball research
  • Experience with pitch level data, hit vector data, sports science data
  • Experience with predictive modeling

While many candidates are no doubt capable, we desire a skillset that can impact, innovate and add value immediately.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.