Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Jorge Alfaro, C, Philadelphia (Profile)
Level: Triple-A   Age: 23   Org Rank: 3  Top 100: 32
Line: 3-for-4, HR

Notes
Alfaro’s home run came on a slider on the outer half that he hit the opposite way. It’s about 370 feet to right center at Coca Cola Park and there’s a 16-foot wall you need to clear if you hit one out that way. Alfaro nearly hit the giant Martin Guitar replica on the concourse. He doesn’t walk, but the power is a separator, and he’s now up to .357/.379/.554 this year. Phillies starter Cameron Rupp is hitting .186.

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Jeff Sullivan had a variation of this question for me. I found it intriguing enough to take a quick look. This chart is limited to games where the game was tied entering any half inning.

Obviously, the first two half-innings, the game is scoreless entering those half innings. And we don’t see much separation until we get to the start of the 11th half inning (i.e, top of the 6th). From that point onwards, the chance of home team winning increases in a scoreless game.

Why would this be? Almost certainly selection bias. Those games feature a low run environment, either because pitcher parks are disproportionately represented, or great pitchers are disproportionately represented.

Basically, in a small-ball setting, the chance of winning increases for the home team of a tied game.

But, is that ALL it could be? Could maybe managers and players play differently knowing the game is scoreless? Someone else can take it from here.

I’m an idiot, and looked up where the All-Star Game was last year. The All-Star Game this year is in Miami. So, yes, corrections below.

The story of the first few weeks of this season has almost certainly been the arrival of Eric Thames, who has returned from Korea to look like one of the game’s best power hitters. While Thames won’t keep hitting like Babe Ruth in his prime, unless there’s some hidden exploitable flaw that no one has found yet, he’s probably going to be a pretty decent hitter for the Brewers for the next few months.

And if he does keep hitting even near what the projections think he’ll be going forward, it’s going to be nearly impossible to fill out the first base portion of the National League All-Star ballot. Thames has simply made the most crowded position in baseball even more so.

Just for fun, let’s look at the top 15 hitters by our rest-of-season wOBA projections from the combined ZIPS/Steamer forecasts. I’ll highlight the NL first baseman in this table.

By our forecasts, five of the 13 best hitters in baseball over the remainder of the season play first base in the National League. That doesn’t even account for what has already happened, with Thames and Freeman putting themselves in very strong positions to have All-Star numbers by the break. And even with the DH now being used in every All-Star Game, the reality is that there’s really only room to carry four first baseman on the roster.

And we haven’t even mentioned that, of these five players, there are probably only going to be three spots available, because Wil Myers is very likely to be the Padres best representative, and as their best player, is nearly guaranteed a spot in the game given that the contest is in his home park. If we assume Myers is going to get one spot, that leaves three chances for some combination of Freeman, Thames, Votto, Rizzo, and Goldschmidt. Sorry Brandon Belt, but we’re going to pretend you don’t exist, and I hope you don’t have any All-Star incentives in your contract.

Rizzo is probably the most likely bet to win the fan’s vote as the starter, given the Cubs current popularity and the fact that their fans elected their entire starting infield last year. Freeman seems like something close to a lock, given his start and the likelihood that the Braves won’t have a lot of other compelling options to pick from. So that leaves Thames, Votto, and Goldschmidt probably fighting over one spot.

Yeah. All-Star rosters aren’t a thing that really matter, but I can’t remember a time where some obviously great players were effectively guaranteed of being shut out of the midsummer classic.

Position: MLB Advanced Media Coordinator, Club Relations

Location: New York, N.Y.

Description:
The Coordinator, Club Relations will assist the Manager, Club Relations, in providing stats, data, reports and services to the 30 MLB clubs, all minor league clubs, and their vendors and business partners, as well as MLBAM internal consumers. Candidates must have a strong knowledge of baseball, a high degree of comfort with new technology, and extreme attention to detail and procedure. Work generally takes place during ordinary business hours, but on-call responsibilities are required as necessary.

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Aaron Judge is large. He’s 6-foot-7 and 275 pounds of human. A lean, mean slugging machine. He is one of, if not the, largest players in the game right now, and we are blessed to be able to watch him ply his craft in the big leagues. It doesn’t hurt that he plays in Yankee Stadium, which is essentially the size of a thimble, but Judge doesn’t exactly need shallow walls to do his thing.

That’s 443 feet of dinger. You can fit 67.3 Aaron Judges into that distance. It’s easy power from an easy swing, because turning baseballs into FAA-sanctioned aircrafts is one of the perks of being the size of the Incredible Hulk. It’s also worth noting that Judge did this on a cold, damp night. That’s not an environment that’s conducive to monster bombs. The ball tends to fly further when it’s warm out. This leads us to a very important question: what the hell is Aaron Judge going to be doing a month from now? Are the Yankees going to need to install some sort of protective awning over the bleachers? Is he going to be peppering the middle of the upper deck? Is that beer stand in danger?

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Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Christian Arroyo, 3B, San Francisco (Profile)
Level: Triple-A   Age: 21   Org Rank: 1  Top 100: 69
Line: 4-for-5, 2B, HR

Notes
That’s a home run in two consecutive games for Arroyo — both in Sacramento’s Raley Field, which is pitcher-friendly compared to most other PCL parks. Arroyo’s home run on Monday was a 350-foot opposite-field poke. I wouldn’t prematurely jump ship on Arroyo despite his modest statistical output last year. He’s still just 21, already at Triple-A and has rare bat-to-ball skills. He’s a better defensive fit at second or third base than shortstop (where he’s playing most of his time now) and lacks power and great walk rates. But Arroyo is tough to strike out and should be able to play somewhere favorable on the defensive spectrum or several positions. If the bat maxes out, he could profile similarly to Martin Prado.

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Position: Tampa Bay Rays TrackMan Stringers/Operators

Location: Port Charlotte, Fla.

Description:
TrackMan Stringers/operators will be responsible for running the TrackMan system for Charlotte Stone Crabs’ home games they’re assigned in Port Charlotte, Fla. The number of games each stringer works varies by week. Stringer(s) will start as soon as possible.
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Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Lewis Brinson, CF, Milwaukee (Profile)
Level: Triple-A   Age: 22   Org Rank: 1  Top 100: 16
Line: 4-for-6, 2B, HR, 2 R

Notes
Brinson has hit in five consecutive games since returning from a dislocated pinkie. Injuries and strikeouts have long been Brinson’s issues, but he’s made significant adjustments in what are now parts of six pro seasons. Once vulnerable on the inner half due to lever length, Brinson can now pull his hands in and, even though he isn’t getting extended, he’s strong enough to do things like this:

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Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Note from Eric: we were recently alerted that another baseball website, the reputable Sox Prospects, runs a daily post entitled “Cup of Coffee” (the former name of this series of daily posts). The present column didn’t run yesterday as Carson Cistulli and I attempted to produce a new title that was clever, appropriate, and algorithmically effective. We did not succeed. Please continue to enjoy these as if they were perfectly titled. End of note.

4/17

Jimmy Herget, RHP, Cincinnati (Profile)
Level: Double-A   Age: 23   Org Rank: 23  Top 100: NR
Line: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 0 ER, 6 K

Notes
Herget has thrown six innings this year and allowed just two baserunners while striking out 13. He works in the low to mid-90s, is deceptive, and throws catroonish sliders like the one below. Pitchers with an arm slot like this elicit platoon-related concerns from scouts, and Herget did allow an OBP to lefties that was .050 higher than he did against righties last year, but most observers think Herget has enough command to mitigate the issues and think he could, one day, close.

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In yesterday’s ninth inning, Sam Dyson came in with a lead, and left with a loss. It’s the second time that’s happened. Another time, he came in with a tie, and left with a loss. Another time, he came in with a lead, and left with a tie. Dyson has so far pitched in six games, and he’s been charged with four of what we call Meltdowns. He has zero saves, three blown saves, three losses, and a 27.00 ERA. The Rangers are probably going to give Dyson a break from closing, not because they necessarily think he’s toast, but because at some point you just need to make a change so that Dyson doesn’t completely lose confidence.

Dyson has two scoreless appearances, both of which came in low-leverage spots. He’s been a nightmare in the four higher-leverage spots. Of Dyson’s seven worst career appearances, as ranked by Win Probability Added, four have come in the last two weeks, with Dyson owning a total -2.6 WPA. The next-worst mark in baseball right now is Steve Pearce‘s -1.2. The next-worst mark for a pitcher right now is Xavier Cedeno’s -1.1. Dyson, already, has been a win and a half worse than the next-most harmful player.

It’s natural to wonder about historical context. And I couldn’t find a real clean way to look this up, but I’ve done the best I could, using the Baseball-Reference Play Index. Looking at pitchers only, I searched for the worst starts to seasons, by WPA, through a team’s first 12 games. And assuming I did everything correctly, Dyson is the big winner, or the big loser. I couldn’t find a pitcher with a worse 12-team-game WPA than Dyson’s -2.6. The closest I found was -2.0, belonging to 2011 Matt Thornton. If this is correct, then Dyson has had the worst such start by more than half a win. It’s a weird and oddly specific stat query, but it might be helpful to know that Dyson’s troubles have indeed been historic in magnitude. Nobody else on record has struggled like this in circumstances like his.

As a certain amount of consolation: Matt Thornton that one year allowed 10 runs in his first 4.2 innings. Opponents managed a 1.061 OPS. From Thornton’s next outing onward, his ERA was 2.95, and opponents managed a paltry .594 OPS. Thornton got himself back on track, as if nothing had ever happened. The Rangers probably figure Dyson should be able to do the same. In the short-term, though, expect them to protect themselves, just in case. So much damage — so much damage — has already been done.