Well, we’re almost to July, and teams that need pitching help have decided not to wait any longer. According to reports, two small trades for pitching help are being completed this afternoon.

Heard the Padres and Marlins are nearing a deal for Fernando Rodney for a good A-ball prospect

— keithlaw (@keithlaw) June 30, 2016

Sources: #Dodgers getting Bud Norris from #Braves.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) June 30, 2016

Neither Fernando Rodney nor Bud Norris are the kinds of guys that are going to single handedly carry you to the playoffs, but both also have their value in providing useful depth, and both are having excellent starts to the 2016 season. Rodney’s strikeout rate has spiked back up this year, allowing him to be an effective pitcher even with his command problems, and will likely slide into the Marlins bullpen, allowing them to ride A.J. Ramos, David Phelps, and Kyle Barraclough a bit less in the second half. Though, if Keith Law is correct that the Marlins gave up a “good prospect” to get a half season of Rodney’s inconsistency, that seems like a steep price to pay. But we’ll have to wait and see what price they paid.

For the Dodgers, this was very likely a reaction to the news that Clayton Kershaw is heading to the DL, weakening the team’s rotation even further. Norris has been pretty good of late, and as Jeff Sullivan recently noted, that’s coincided with him getting rid of his garbage change-up and replacing it with an effective cutter. If that swap continues to pay dividends, he could be a nice back-end starter for the team in the second half.

That said, Norris also has a pretty long history of underperforming his peripheral numbers, with +11 WAR in his career if you go by the FIP-based WAR, but only +6 WAR if you go by RA9. With over 1,000 big league innings, it’s pretty likely that a good chunk of that difference is due to Norris’ own weaknesses and not just bad luck, so we shouldn’t expect him to be as good as his FIP suggests. But even with some BABIP issues, a guy with average walk and strikeout rates and some groundballs can be useful, and Norris is good enough against RHPs that he could be an effective situational reliever in the playoffs, if the Dodgers manage to get there.

Like with the Rodney deal, we don’t know what the acquisition cost was, but the Dodgers certainly needed to add an arm with Kershaw going down for at least a few weeks. Norris isn’t an ace, but he can help the team survive for a little while, and if this new cutter proves effective, maybe even do more than that.

On rare occasion, I’ll interview a player and end up not writing about him — at least not right away — despite fully intending to. This happened with Brock Stewart, who will be making his major-league debut with the Los Angeles Dodgers later tonight.

Stewart was more of a project than a prospect when I talked to him last summer. A sixth-round pick in 2014 out of Illinois State University, the converted infielder was having his ups and downs pitching for Rancho Cucamonga in the High-A California League. But his potential was apparent. Not long after we spoke, it was speculated that Stewart would be part of the three-team, multi-player deal that sent Mat Latos to L.A.

After a sophomore season at Illinois State that saw him hit .330/.402/.496, Stewart thought he’d go on to be drafted as a position player. That changed late in his junior year. The Normal, Illinois, native was scuffling at the plate, and opening eyes in occasional appearances out of the bullpen. One of his coaches suggested that he focus more on pitching, and his father, a pro scout for the Padres (and now the Rays), agreed. Jeff Stewart told his son “a lot of scouts, myself included, think your arm is your best tool.”

The youngster was a little surprised — “I always thought I was going to be playing in the infield for a big-league team someday” — but he heeded the advice. As he put it, “You have to go with the flow, and for me, that flow was toward the mound.” Read the rest of this entry »

At the end of January, the author published unassailable evidence to the effect that — owing to certain traits he shares with SEC alumnus and current major leaguer Josh Donaldson — that Washington infield prospect Max Schrock is a strong future candidate for an MVP award.

Not unlike life itself, the author’s argument bore trace elements of the absurd. One finds, for example, that Schrock passed his junior year at the University of South Carolina as a 5-foot-8 left fielder — not a classic profile for which scouts are clamoring. Perhaps not coincidentally, Schrock wasn’t selected until the 13th round of the 2015 draft. The $500,000 bonus he eventually extracted from the Nationals compensated him more along the lines of a fourth-rounder. Despite that — and despite success in his first exposure to affiliated ball — he entered the 2016 campaign absent from all notable top-prospect lists.

The purpose of this post is to announce how Schrock, following a strong half-season at Low-A Hagerstown — for which he was rewarded with a place in the Sally League All-Star game (winning that contest’s MVP award) — has been promoted to High-A Potomac, for which club he debuted last night, batting second and playing second base (box). By those measures which suggest future success — most notably, contact and power and the capacity to provide defensive value — Schrock’s tenure in Hagerstown was encouraging. One notes, for example, that Schrock recorded the lowest strikeout rate among all qualified batters across all Low-A while also recording an isolated-power figure about 10 points higher than the SAL average. Schrock’s last month, in particular, was impressive — and rendered below in table form.

On the most recent edition of FanGraphs Audio, managing editor Dave Cameron made comments to the effect that contributors to this site aren’t clairvoyant — nor is it the present author’s intention to contradict that sentiment. What one finds in Max Schrock, however, and his receipt someday of baseball highest single-season honor, isn’t so much a prediction as an account of the inevitable. Future Max Schrock has already been recognized as an MVP. We’re human anachronisms, all of us, for not knowing it yet.

As you might remember from last year, Matt Carpenter turned himself into a different kind of hitter. He’d already been wonderfully productive, but last year, he seemingly made the decision to exchange some contact for power. So while Carpenter soared to a career-high ISO, with a career-low rate of grounders, he also notched a career-high strikeout rate, with a career-low rate of contact. It wasn’t necessarily good, and it wasn’t necessarily bad; it was interesting. Carpenter managed a 139 wRC+. Two years earlier, as more of a contact guy, he managed a 146 wRC+.

Now look at this year’s leaderboards. As I write this, David Ortiz owns the highest wRC+ among qualified hitters in the game. Carpenter, however, is right there in second, ahead of Jose Altuve and Mike Trout. And upon investigation, this has gotten silly. Carpenter has hit for more power than a year ago. He’s still putting most of his batted balls in the air. Yet Carpenter has re-gained much of his lost contact. His strikeout rate is down about six percentage points, and his walks are higher than ever. So to summarize: Carpenter traded some contact for power, but then he boosted the power and the contact, and, I don’t know, but here we are. You might think his numbers look very familiar. This is because Carpenter now resembles a left-handed prime Jose Bautista.

Bautista became Bautista in 2010. So that’s why I selected that window of time. And while Bautista, of course, has done this over several seasons, while Carpenter has done this over about half of one, look at the similarities. LOOK AT THEM. Same walks. Same strikeouts. Same power. Same batted-ball tendencies. Same pull-side preference, with limited strength the other way. One column I didn’t include: Bautista’s one weakness has been infield flies. Usually goes hand-in-hand with that sort of uppercut approach. Carpenter has two infield flies on the season. That helps to explain the wRC+ difference. I’m not saying that’ll sustain, but it’s worth a mention.

Carpenter bats lefty, and Bautista bats righty, and that’s an important difference, but it’s also maybe the only difference that really matters. Matt Carpenter just looks like Jose Bautista from the other side. Carpenter was never really supposed to develop this sort of power, but the man stands 6’3, as compared to Bautista at 6’0. It’s not like it’s come out of nowhere. This ability has been contained within, and now it’s gotten out. It’s gotten out while Carpenter has still been able to keep the strikeouts in check.

Matt Carpenter was never a Baseball America top-100 prospect. He was never a BA top-10 Cardinals prospect. Nevertheless, he developed into an elite contact hitter, and now it looks like he’s developing into an elite power hitter. This is by no means a shot at BA. Rather, it’s a reminder that prospecting is difficult work. Sometimes an underrated prospect becomes a great player. Sometimes an underrated prospect becomes two great players.

It’s not something I’ve ever officially written down, but I’ve tried to observe a personal policy of not bothering to write about Bud Norris. Do I really need to explain? I assume you get it. The level of interest you’ve had in reading about Bud Norris — that’s more or less been my level of interest in writing about Bud Norris. And I certainly didn’t think I’d be writing about him this year, not given his employer, and not given how he started.

But don’t go away! For one thing, Norris is generating some attention on the trade market. And, yeah, I know, it’s a lousy trade market, for starting pitchers in particular. That fuels some of this. Yet Norris, also, deserves whatever amount of respect that confers. Quietly, Norris has gotten up to something. For the month of June, he’s tied for fourth among qualified pitchers in WAR. He’s right behind Jose Fernandez and Clayton Kershaw, and even with Jacob deGrom, Corey Kluber, Max Scherzer, and Zachary Davies. Norris has become a ground-baller, which is new. Bud Norris is making something of himself — again? — and there’s even what feels like an easy explanation.

Cutter!

Following, I’ve plotted all of Norris’ pitches, grouped by velocity and spin axis. There are two plots which you’ll see: Norris’ pitches through the end of May, and Norris’ pitches since the start of June.

See the group that increases in number around the middle? That’s a cutter. And the group that all but disappears more toward the middle right — changeup. Norris has gotten comfortable with a cutter, and he’s abandoned his changeup, and this makes sense for a pitcher who’s long struggled against opposite-handed hitters. He’s been searching for a solution, and maybe borrowing from Brooks Baseball is a cleaner way to show this. Norris’ changeup and cutter frequencies against lefties, by month:

Lots of cutters, recently, and the changeup is dead. Pitchers want a useful changeup to show when they have the platoon disadvantage, but cutters can work, too, and it’s not like the changeup was ever much of a weapon before. Norris has embraced this in his return from the bullpen, and here’s an idea of what the cutter looks like:

More important than a hand-selected video of one pitch are bigger-picture results. Against lefties this year, Norris has thrown his cutter for a strike 72% of the time. It has yet to be hit for a fly ball. It’s generated 22% whiffs, and lefties have batted .105 against the new wrinkle, slugging .158. I can make this more dramatic. Check out Norris’ seasonal lefty splits. This is stupid.

Obviously, the samples are pathetically small, but the samples are also substantially different. Before embracing the cutter, Norris was a complete disaster against left-handed bats. He could barely get them out, and they were hitting him for excellent contact. In June, however, those fortunes have reversed, as Norris has found a way to pitch well in what had been difficult situations. Norris has thrown strikes to lefties. He’s made them miss. Even the contact quality has improved. All right, Bud Norris!

Who knows what the future holds? Maybe opponents just need to adjust to this, and then he’ll go back to being the pretty boring Bud Norris. Yet pitchers change ability levels pretty quickly from time to time, and all of a sudden, Norris looks like he can pitch to righties and lefties. That makes him a usable starter on a bad team, which makes him a modestly appealing trade candidate. There’s actually a reason for a team to want Bud Norris.

I’m not saying it’s the best idea in the world. I’m just saying, hey, look at that. He’s done something. It’s a pretty cool something.

Todd Frazier hasn’t been exactly what the White Sox hoped when they traded a slew of prospects for him in the offseason. I mean, yeah, he’s got a share of the MLB home run lead with 21, but everything else has been out of whack. Despite those 21 home runs, Frazier’s actually barely been a league-average hitter, a .201 batting average being the key contributor to a pedestrian 104 wRC+. The stellar base-running Frazier displayed in 2014 has been absent. Any defensive metric suggests Frazier’s once-solid defense has gone into a spiral this year. Frazier’s essentially been an all-or-nothing home run machine, which has amounted to just 0.7 WAR for the year.

You look at the home runs, and you see the potential, but then you look at the mediocre overall batting line, and your eye is drawn to the batting average, because it’s the only thing that’s out of whack. Just .201. Frazier’s not striking out much more than usual, so you look to the BABIP, and you see… .182. Todd Frazier has a .182 batting average on balls in play this year, the lowest in baseball by more than 30 points. Excellent! Regression is near! That’s how BABIP works, right?

Well, yeah, kind of. Frazier will finish the year with a BABIP higher than .182, because surely he’s had some misfortune, but you don’t misfortune yourself all the way to a sub-.200 BABIP almost halfway through the year. More than anything, this is on Frazier.

Read the rest of this entry »

Just to be clear, there are three positions here.

Position: Sports Info Solutions Operations Associate

Location: Coplay, Pa.

Description:

SIS is currently seeking candidates for the position of full-time Associate in our Operations Department. This is a salaried position based in our office in the Lehigh Valley of eastern Pennsylvania.

The Operations Associate will be involved in all facets of the data collection operation at SIS. In addition to the training and supervision of our video scouts, he or she will be heavily involved in the implementation of quality control measures to ensure the highest level of accuracy in the industry. The Associate will work closely with other departments to help coordinate projects involving data collection. The position requires a highly motivated self-starter with an ability to thrive in a fast-paced environment.

Responsibilities:

• Scout baseball and football games from video and record relevant information using internal applications.
• Train and supervise seasonal video scouting staff.
• Create and organize quality control measures involving data collection.
• Improve efficiency of day-to-day operations.
• Prepare and analyze statistical data for delivery to customers.
• Assist with the planning and development of new operations as necessary.
• Other responsibilities as assigned.

Qualifications:

• Must be able to work out of our Lehigh Valley, PA office beginning in August 2016.
• Thorough knowledge of sports players, teams, rules, and scorekeeping.
• 3+ years baseball or football scouting, video scouting, and/or coaching experience.
• High school or college baseball or football playing experience is preferred.
• Knowledge of and familiarity with current sports analytics research.
• Must be able to work nights and weekends.
• Strong academic background and overall aptitude.
• Strong leadership and communication skills.
• High attention to detail with an ability to prioritize and meet deadlines.
• Computer proficiency and the ability to quickly learn new software.

To Apply:
For more information or to apply, please submit your résumé and cover letter to Carol Olsen at careers@baseballinfosolutions.com.

…

Position: Sports Info Solutions Business Development Associate

Location: Coplay, Pa.

Description:

Would you be interested in working closely with a small team to bring sabermetrics to a larger audience? Sports Info Solutions is seeking a full-time Business Development Associate to work out of our Lehigh Valley, PA office. This is a great opportunity in a casual office environment with the leading provider of in-depth baseball statistics.

The candidate will develop new sales opportunities as well as help maintain existing client relationships. Strong candidates will possess a self-motivated attitude, great communication skills, and be able to work in a collaborative team environment or independently as needed.

Responsibilities:

• Build new business relationships independently or as part of a sales team.
• Maintain and expand existing client relationships.
• Assist with marketing efforts and represent the company in professional settings.
• Communicate with clients and prospects in-person, over the phone, and via email.
• Educate current and future clients on cutting-edge data and analytics from SIS.
• Collaborate with SIS Operations, R&D, and IT colleagues to build new products and fulfill customer needs.
• Travel to meet with clients as needed.

Qualifications:

• A track record (1-2 years) working in a sales environment.
• A firm grasp on the baseball, fantasy sports, and sports media industries, including the latest sabermetric research.
• Open-minded approach and ability to think creatively to anticipate client and industry demands.
• Outgoing personality and flexible sales style to engage with a wide variety of prospective clients.
• Professional demeanor with excellent verbal and written communication skills.
• Strong organizational skills as well as diligence and high attention to detail.
• Initiative to voluntarily commit long hours, night, and weekends as when needed.
• Proficient in Microsoft software, including Word, Excel and PowerPoint.

To Apply:
For more information or to apply, please submit your résumé and cover letter to Carol Olsen at careers@baseballinfosolutions.com.

…

Position: Sports Info Solutions 2016 Video Scouting Internship for Football Season

Location: Coplay, Pa.

Description:

Sports Info Solutions (SIS) is looking for highly motivated individuals with a desire to work in the football industry. Video Scouts will have a chance to make an immediate impression on the company. Each Video Scout will be collecting data that is directly used by SIS clients for advance scouting and evaluation purposes. Not only will the Video Scouts become more familiar with the strengths and weaknesses of hundreds of amateur and professional players, but they will also learn about the ins and outs of the football analytics industry. Numerous Video Scouts have gone on to succeed in jobs with professional sports teams and with SIS in a full-time capacity.

Strong candidates will possess great attention to detail, basic knowledge about NFL rules and be able to work in a collaborative team environment or independently as needed.

Duration:
SIS Video Scouts will report to the SIS office to begin training on August 22nd, 2016. The position will last for a period of six months.

Responsibilities:

• Score NFL and amateur football games using specialized computer software.
• Review the accuracy and validity of data.
• Prepare and analyze statistical data for delivery to customers.
• Assist with additional projects as instructed by full-time staff.
• Provide administrative support to the full-time staff.

Qualifications:

• Demonstrated knowledge of NFL and NCAA rules.
• Ability to identify and differentiate between players.
• Computer proficiency and the ability to quickly learn new software.
• High attention to detail.
• High school or college football playing experience is preferred but not necessary.
• Football coaching and/or scouting experience is a plus.
• Must be able to work nights and weekends.
• Must be able to work out of our Lehigh Valley, PA office.

This position is compensated.

To Apply:
For more information or to apply, please submit your résumé and cover letter to Carol Olsen at careers@baseballinfosolutions.com.

Zach Putnam threw 20 pitches on Monday night, and 15 of them were splitters. Many were balls. The White Sox reliever walked all three batters he faced in the ninth inning of a tie game at Fenway Park. Dennis Eckersley, doing color on the Red Sox TV broadcast wasn’t impressed. In his opinion, Putnam “deserves to lose” because he was throwing so many splitters.

Results aside, was it a mistake to throw that many? Putnam has utilized the pitch 68.3% of the time this year — the highest percentage in baseball — and he boasts a 2.30 ERA, striking out 9.9 batters per nine innings over 25 appearances.

Extreme splitter usage isn’t unique to Putnam. Koji Uehara lives and dies by the pitch. Last season, Uehara had a four-game stretch where he threw 52 splitters and just six fastballs. (Broadcasting in Boston, Eckersley presumably knows this.)

I wasn’t able to ask Putnam about his outing, as he left town after the game to have his elbow examined. (He was placed on the disabled list with ulnar neuritis.) I did check in with his catcher, Alex Avila, and his pitching coach, Don Cooper. Both defended the split-heavy ratio.

“His fastball isn’t the reason he’s in the big leagues,” Cooper told me. “If we’re going to win or lose a game, it’s going to be on the split more often than not. His best pitch is a split. He’s been striking out a batter per inning, and he hasn’t been doing it with fastballs. His fastball is to keep hitters honest.”

“We did throw fastballs,” added Avila. “On the walk to Hanley (Ramirez) we threw a 3-2 fastball and almost got him looking, because I think he was thinking splitter. It really has nothing to do with the percentage of times you’re throwing it. The game, the player, the situation, dictates that, as well as what the the pitcher is comfortable throwing. He’s comfortable throwing his split.”

Back in November, the Milwaukee acquired outfielder Ramon Flores from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for Luis Sardinas. At first glance, that move seemed inconsequential enough — one fringe major leaguer for another. But Flores’ minor-league track record suggests he may not always be inconsequential. He hit a strong .308/.401/.454 as a 23-year-old in Triple-A last year and a respectable .247/.339/.443 at the same level in 2014. That was enough to put him 24th on KATOH’s pre-season top 100 list. Due to his underwhelming tools, however, most scouts thought he was, at best, a fourth outfielder.

Flores also came with a logistical caveat: since he was out of options, he couldn’t be sent to the minor leagues without passing through waivers. It was far from obvious that Flores was up for the challenge of facing big-league pitching. Not only did he lack physicality and experience, but he was also recovering from a compound ankle fracture suffered last August. Nonetheless, the Brewers granted Flores a spot on their opening-day roster after he showed he was healthy in spring training. Early on, that decision looked somewhat questionable. In semi-regular playing time, Flores strung together several 0-fers in April, which contributed to an embarrassing .125/.205/.125 stat line through April 28th.

Read the rest of this entry »

Josh Donaldson is a remarkable player. You probably already knew that, given that he’s the reigning AL MVP. But when you think of Josh Donaldson, you probably think of him crushing a baseball, as he’s turned himself into one of the best hitters in baseball. Or maybe you think of him making an amazing play in the field, as he’s also one of the best defensive third baseman in the game.

But here’s a thing that maybe you did not know: Josh Donaldson is also one of the best base stealers in baseball. He’s not a high-volume base stealer — he’s never stolen more than eight bases in a season — so we’re not exactly talking about Billy Hamilton here, but no one in baseball picks their spots to run better than Donaldson.

On the year, Donaldson has stolen five bases in five attempts. Last year, he stole six bases in six attempts. In 2014, he stole eight bases in eight attempts. You have to go back to June 3rd of 2013 to find the last time Josh Donaldson was thrown out trying to steal a base. Since then, he’s successfully stolen 22 bases in a row.

Over the last three years, no other player with double-digit steal attempts has been even close to as efficient in thievery. Here are the highest success rates among players with at least 20 stolen base attempts over the last three calendar years.

Best SB%, Last Three Years

Player	Steals	SB Attempt	SB%
Josh Donaldson	22	22	100%
Shane Victorino	23	24	96%
James Jones	28	30	93%
Michael Brantley	51	55	93%
Craig Gentry	37	41	90%
Brock Holt	23	26	88%
Drew Stubbs	42	48	88%
Chris Owings	34	39	87%
Jayson Werth	18	21	86%
Leury Garcia	18	21	86%

If we used a lower threshold for SB attempts, Jackie Bradley Jr would show up here, as he’s 18 for 18 in stolen base attempts in his career. But we didn’t, so, sorry JBJ.

Shane Victorino is out of baseball because he can’t really hit anymore. James Jones and Leury Garcia are in Triple-A because they could never hit. Craig Gentry, Brock Holt, Drew Stubbs, and Chris Owings are part-time players who are around in part because of their speed, so this is a specific skill that helps keep them in the league. The only everyday players on this list are Donaldson, Brantley, and the almost-as-surprising Jayson Werth. And thanks to his perfect success rate, Donaldson stands above the rest.

This doesn’t make him the best base stealer in baseball, of course. That probably goes to a guy like Jarrod Dyson, who has managed to steal 101 bases at an 85% success rate over the last three years despite everyone knowing he’s running when he’s inserted as a pinch runner. Speed guys like Dyson don’t get to take advantage of the element of surprise in the way a guy like Donaldson does, and if Donaldson ran more often, he’d certainly get thrown out at a much higher rate than guys who run at high frequency.

But since June 3rd of 2013, Donaldson has used the element of surprise perfectly. It’s been more than three years since the last time he got nailed on the bases, and being able to take extra is one of the small things that adds up to help make the Blue Jays third baseman truly one of the very best all-around players in the game.