The Mariners openly referred to Hisashi Iwakuma as their No. 1 offseason priority. Then they saw him reach a three-year agreement with the Dodgers worth $45 million, so they gave up, because they had to, and moved on to Wade Miley. Just days ago, Jerry Dipoto said he was basically done tweaking the roster. Everything was more or less set where he wanted. But you can’t predict random chaos. See, there are contracts that are agreed to, and there are contracts that are official. Before Iwakuma’s Dodger contract could become official, he had to pass a physical exam, and he failed it. As soon as Dipoto heard about that, he got ownership approval and moved in. I just finished watching a press conference announcing Iwakuma’s return to Seattle.

It happened fast, and Jon Heyman has the terms. Earlier Thursday, word spread Iwakuma had failed the physical. By Thursday night, the Mariners said they had him re-signed. Iwakuma gets a $1-million signing bonus, and a $10-million salary for 2016. Then there are $10-million club options for the next two years, with $1-million buyouts. That’s not the end of it, though — there’s a $14-million vesting option for 2017, if Iwakuma throws 162 innings this coming year. And there’s a $15-million vesting option for 2018, if Iwakuma throws 162 innings the next year, or 324 innings combined. Throw in some smaller incentives and Iwakuma’s maximum contract is right there with the Dodgers total. It’s just that the guarantee is $12 million. Pretty obviously, Iwakuma lost a lot of leverage.

Still, if he believes in his health, he’ll get his money. Iwakuma says he’s good to go, and so do the Mariners. It’s worth thinking about a few things. The Dodgers gave 3/$45m, and then wanted to re-negotiate after the physical. The Mariners gave Iwakuma an end-of-season physical, and they offered him 2/$30m. They initially lost out to the Dodgers because they weren’t comfortable with the guaranteed third year. What that suggests is that anything in the tests is more of a longer-term concern, and now the Mariners have some protection.

Not that we know how this is going to go. Maybe Iwakuma breaks down immediately. Or maybe this turns out like when Aaron Sele failed a physical with the Orioles. That scrapped a four-year commitment. Sele signed a two-year commitment with Seattle and pitched effectively. He eventually had shoulder surgery three years out (from which he returned). Iwakuma will be 37 in 2018 so he’d be a risk no matter what. The value here will be at the front.

Over three years, Iwakuma has Stephen Strasburg‘s ERA-, Scott Kazmir‘s FIP-, and Madison Bumgarner’s xFIP-. He projects now as a No. 2 or No. 3, and he sets up a battle between Nate Karns and James Paxton for the last rotation slot. That depth is likely to be needed, although now there’s some chance the Mariners re-visit trade talks, dangling a pitcher they didn’t think they could move. The likelihood is someone just starts in Tacoma. Some kind of injury somewhere is to be expected.

The Mariners didn’t expect to get a few wins better like this, but Iwakuma fell back in their lap, and they couldn’t pass up the opportunity. It’ll help them be competitive with what’s become a deep rotation. On the Dodgers’ end, they walked back from the three-year commitment because they were no longer comfortable with it. It’s mostly bad luck, but now this just increases the urgency they would’ve been already feeling to make the rotation better. They can’t know what to expect from Hyun-Jin Ryu. They can’t know when to expect Brandon McCarthy. There will always be questions about Brett Anderson and Alex Wood, so it’s a guarantee the Dodgers add one starter, and there’s a big chance they add two. This isn’t a catastrophe for them — they didn’t want to give all that money to someone they think is an injury risk. Nothing wrong with that. But to this point it’s been an offseason of missed opportunities. The good news is I think the Dodgers almost prefer to be creative.

UPDATE

“Inaccurate” to say #Dodgers are out on Iwakuma, I’m told. Perhaps they’re reworking the contract?

— Dylan Hernandez (@dylanohernandez) December 17, 2015

—

ORIGINAL

Let’s make one thing clear: I don’t know how to read Japanese. So I can’t confirm what this says, personally, but I don’t see any compelling reason to doubt the report. That report: Hisashi Iwakuma has failed his physical exam with the Dodgers, after the parties came to an agreement on a three-year contract worth $45 million.

Jiji Press reporting the Dodgers backing out from Iwakuma after failed physical. https://t.co/JJ3MMEmWxI

— Kazuto Yamazaki (@Kazuto_Yamazaki) December 17, 2015

For some context, the Mariners openly talked about how re-signing Iwakuma was Priority No. 1, and they extended to him a qualifying offer. Presumably, they’d given Iwakuma a physical of their own. But in talks, the Mariners didn’t want to go to three guaranteed years, so the Dodgers swooped in and lured Iwakuma away. Yet now it appears they see something they don’t like, something that might be more of a long-term concern. Could be Iwakuma projects well for 2016, but things get murky beyond that.

The Dodgers could now turn to Mike Leake, or Scott Kazmir. Or they could tweak the Iwakuma contract. When Matt Kemp had some physical issues discovered, that failed to scuttle his trade to the Padres. When Grant Balfour failed a physical with the Orioles, he eventually signed with another team. And when Mike Napoli had something discovered in his exam with the Red Sox, a three-year deal worth $39 million was re-worked to a one-year deal worth $5 million, with incentives. Those are basically the options, here. It reads like the Dodgers are backing away entirely, but maybe they try to offer Iwakuma a one-year deal to see if he bites.

Down the stretch last season, Iwakuma did lose a bit of velocity. Granted, he also threw a no-hitter, and his August/September/October ERA was 2.63. So, nothing caused his performance to suffer. But he missed a lot of time earlier with a strained right lat, and he had some shoulder problems back when he was pitching in Japan, so it’s not like this comes as a total surprise. Iwakuma would’ve never been described as a workhorse. There have always been some concerns about his durability, and now the Dodgers see something they wish they didn’t. Maybe Iwakuma still has three healthy years left in him, but he’ll have to prove it, and the Dodgers will have to sniff around for improvements to a rotation they already wanted to see get a bit better.

If you want to be an optimist, maybe this could turn Iwakuma into a bargain. That’s spin, though. Because it’s never good news for a pitcher to have an agreement negated because someone didn’t like what they saw in his arm. The pitcher needs the arm to pitch.

After rumors of a Dodgers-White Sox trade surfaced earlier, the teams have now completed a trade, but it’s really a White Sox-Reds trade that the Dodgers helped facilitate. Overall, the deal will send Todd Frazier to Chicago; Micah Johnson, Trayce Thompson and Francelis Montas go to LA, and Jose Peraza, Scott Schebler, and Brandon Dixon end up in Cincinnati.

The biggest name in this deal is third baseman Todd Frazier. The 29-year-old hit 35 home runs with a line of .255/.309/.498 this past season, for a solid 114 wRC+, leading to his second straight four-win season. Frazier avoided arbitration last season with a two year, $12 million contract that will pay him just $7.5 million this season. After this season, the White Sox will have one more season of control on Frazier as he hits his final year of arbitration eligibility.

The White Sox, earlier in the offseason, made a trade for Brett Lawrie — and, at the time, he appeared ticketed for third base — but with the addition of Frazier, he will presumably move back to second base, where has considerable experience. The White Sox were one of the most active teams in last year’s offseason, but a stars and scrubs-like roster hurt them as they received little-to-no production from multiple positions including both second base and shortstop.

Micah Johnson was the presumptive starter at second base this season, making him expendable in the trade. Trayce Thompson was set to get decent playing time in an outfield including Avisail Garcia and Melky Cabrera in the corners, making the corner spots still something of a hole for the White Sox while the Dodgers are apparently receiving depth in both the outfield and infield. Montas was named to Kiley McDaniel’s Top-200 list entering last season:

Montas has steadily improved, with his average slider taking a big step forward this year to now flashing plus, his changeup is now enough to give him a starter’s repertoire and he still hits 100 mph at times. The question is whether his delivery and command fit as a starter and most think he ends up as a closer, but there’s still a chance he figures out a way to fit as a mid-rotation starter.

Montas made his debut in the majors last season, recording two starts and five relief appearances. In 15 innings, he struck out 20 while walking nine batters.

Jose Peraza was a part of the deal that sent Hector Olivera to the Braves and Alex Wood to the Dodgers at last season’s trade deadline. Ranked in the Top-50 at the beginning of last season, Peraza’s star had dimmed a bit at the time of the trade.

Compared to Luis Castillo or Juan Pierre early in his pro career, Peraza’s light has dimmed a bit in 2015 due to offensive questions, but he’s still an elite runner that’s near big league ready and can play multiple positions up the middle.

Scott Schebler is an outfielder who made his debut last season with the Dodgers after ranking 14th in McDaniel’s Dodgers prospect list to start the season. Dixon is a second baseman who played across three levels last season, reaching Double-A and hitting 22 home runs on the season.

The White Sox are at it again, and it remains to be seen if they are finished retooling their roster to attempt a run after a disappointing 2015 season. The Reds rebuild is continuing at full speed ahead, and the Dodgers swapped a few prospects for a few prospects they liked better; it will be interesting to see whether LA or Cincinnati made the right call on which young package is better long-term. Industry consensus right now heavily favors LA.

Well, this is interesting.

Source: Dodgers, White Sox nearing a trade. Top pitching prospect Frankie Montas is going to Los Angeles, so it could be pretty big.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 16, 2015

The obvious guess here is that the Dodgers are shipping an outfielder to Chicago, and with a significant prospect like Montas going to LA, it would seem more likely to involve Yasiel Puig than a salary dump like Andre Ethier or Carl Crawford. Of course, David Robertson could also be a fit for the Dodgers, who already tried to trade for Aroldis Chapman, and the Dodgers are seemingly always looking to take on bad contracts to acquire prospects, so perhaps they could be taking Adam LaRoche off the White Sox hands in order to buy some more minor league inventory.

I’d imagine we’ll find out more soon. Stay tuned.

Position: Boston Red Sox Baseball Operations Analytics Intern

Location: Boston

Description:
The Boston Red Sox are seeking a Baseball Operations intern with a focus on analytics for the 2016 calendar year. The internship will provide exposure to all departments within baseball operations. Applicants must have a passion for baseball, strong work ethic, excellent communication skills, attention to detail, and the ability to work quickly while balancing multiple priorities.

Candidates must be available to start by the end of January and continue in the position until mid-December. The position reports to the Director of Major League Operations. Please note that such positions have the potential to lead to a full-time employment offer, but such an offer is not guaranteed.

Responsibilities:

• Statistical modeling and quantitative analysis of a variety of data sources, for the purpose of player evaluation, strategic decision-making, decision analysis, etc.
• Ad hoc queries and quantitative research in support of general Baseball Operations tasks.
• Overseeing daily updates to our baseball information system.
• Monitoring the quality of external data feeds.
• Staying current on publicly available baseball research.
• Various game-day duties, as necessary.
• General intern duties.

Qualifications:

• A strong foundation in mathematics, statistics, computer science and/or engineering.
• Strong baseball knowledge.
• Experience using SQL.
• Familiarity with current baseball research and analysis.
• Familiarity with a statistical software package such as R.
• Proficiency in Microsoft Office (Excel, PowerPoint, Word).
• Ability to work evening, weekend, and holiday hours is a must.
• Other programming and database skills are a plus.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
To apply, please send an email to analyticsresume@redsox.com with the subject “2016 Analytics Internship”. Please include a resume and answers to the following questions:

1. What computer programming experience do you have?
2. What is a project that you believe would add substantial value to a baseball team? Please describe the project and provide an overview of how you would complete it.

Just to be clear, there are two positions here.

Position: Texas Rangers Architect, Baseball Systems

Location: Arlington, Texas

Description:
The Architect, Baseball Systems will expand and maintain our existing proprietary software for baseball operations.

Responsibilities:

• Maintain and expand our internal web site, reports and internal applications.
• Designing and maintaining the database.
• Import, transformation and maintenance of multiple complex data feeds.
• Work with baseball operations staff to identify requirements.
• Support end users.

Qualifications:

• Five to 10 years professional software development experience (preference for full stack .NET developers).
• Bachelor’s degree or higher in computer science preferred.
• Excellent written and verbal communication skills.
• Familiarity with current statistical concepts in baseball.
• Passion for the game.
• Experience in any of the following are helpful: C#, Microsoft SQL Server (development, data design, query tuning), ASP.Net web forms, SQL Server Reporting Services, SQL Server Integration Services, jQuery, Tableau.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
It is a big plus if you can include or link to work samples a big plus when you apply for this position. Please apply here.

…

Position: Texas Rangers Quantitative Analyst

Location: Arlington, Texas

Description:
The Quantitative Analyst will create statistical models and applications and assist in general research and development work for Baseball Operations.

Responsibilities:

• Develop statistical models; import, export and transform data as necessary to prepare the data sets for these models.
• Develop automation, applications and reports to put models into production for users.
• Conduct general research and development.
• Work with baseball operations staff to prioritize areas of research along with developing a deeper understanding of the game.

Qualifications:

• One-three years’ experience in a similar role preferred (inside or outside of baseball).
• Bachelor’s degree in Statistics, Data Science, Engineering or similar fields or equivalent work experience.
• Proficiency in SQL and relational databases (we use Microsoft SQL Server).
• Proficiency in R or similar statistics packages.
• Proficiency in SQL Server Reporting Services, Tableau or other visualization or reporting tools a plus.
• Passion for baseball.
• Strong understanding of baseball statistics and strategy, familiarity with current sabermetric research.
• Strong written and verbal communications skills.

Compensation:
This position is compensated.

To Apply:
It is a big plus if you can include or link to work samples a big plus when you apply for this position. Please apply here.

There was a time when Jeff Francis was on top of the world. As the best pitcher on the improbable 2007 National League champion Colorado Rockies squad, Francis pitched many pivotal games during the team’s Rocktober march, including starting all three postseason Game Ones. He even landed on the cover of Sports Illustrated, a rare feat for a Colorado Rockies team that rarely finds itself the subject of national attention:

Francis, one of the more humble baseball players I’ve ever come into contact with, who actually could have done anything he wanted to in life (he was a physics major in college) copped to buying up every copy of that issue he could find. He even sent autographed copies of it to his former coaches, which is a pretty cool thing to do.

That issue was dated Oct. 15, 2007. He landed on the cover because at that point he and the Rockies were rolling. When it landed on newstands, the team had won 20 of its last 21 games, and would win again that night to send the Rockies to their first and (still) only World Series berth. Francis had pitched admirably along the way. In Game 1 in Philadelphia, he pitched six innings of two-run ball, striking out eight. Eight days later, in the desert against the Dbacks, he arguably pitched even better. He didn’t have his strikeouts working, but he netted 13 ground balls, and allowed just one run over 6.2 innings. He was bestowed with the “W” in both outings.

In fact, while Francis had lost the only game the Rockies lost from mid-September until late October, he had pitched pretty well in the second half, and for the season overall. His 3.7 WAR in 2007 still represents the eighth-best single-season Rockies total, and his 14.2 WAR with the Rockies is still the third-most on their career pitching leaderboard. That second half, he mixed efficient quality starts with total drubbings, as he did for most of his career — the crafty Francis was often at the mercy of the home plate umpire.

Speaking of drubbings, that second loss, the one he endured in late October at the hands of the Red Sox, was a rude awakening for the Rockies and their fans. Facing the behemoth Boston lineup, Francis coughed up six runs in four innings in Game One of the 2007 World Series. Dustin Pedroia would lead the game off with a home run, and Red Sox hitters made it tough on Francis all night. He never recorded four consecutive outs, and allowed baserunners in every inning. In fact, Francis’ Game Score for the outing was a lowly 18. As it turns out, this is one of the worst Game Scores in Game One World Series history:

Worst Game Scores, World Series Game One History

Year	Pitcher	Team	GSc
2004	Woody Williams	STL	11
1945	Hal Newhouser	DET	16
1996	Andy Pettitte	NYY	17
2007	Jeff Francis	COL	18
1997	Orel Hershiser	CLE	21
1919	Eddie Cicotte	CHW	22
1979	Bruce Kison	PIT	25
2014	James Shields	KC	25
1940	Paul Derringer	CIN	26
1932	Guy Bush	CHC	27
1959	Roger Craig	LAD	27
1965	Don Drysdale	LAD	27
1980	Dennis Leonard	KC	27

SOURCE: Baseball-Reference

Find the full list of World Series Game One Game Scores here.

Despite this, there’s actually an argument to be made that the Rockies were better off with Francis in the game. Franklin Morales — who, at the time, was still a stud phenom (though not as much after this night) — was brought in to start the fifth, and he and Ryan Speier proceeded to torch any small chance the Rockies had of coming back. The pair allowed 10 baserunners and seven runs in just 0.2 innings pitched (Speier didn’t even retire a batter), and suddenly it was 13-1. An hour or so into the World Series, the life had been sucked out of the Rockies. Boston would only trail for four innings during their tidy four-game sweep.

Today, Jeff Francis announced his retirement, and 2007 seems like a long time ago. In 2008, Francis would begin to have shoulder trouble, and was rarely ever the same pitcher he was in 2007 on a consistent basis. But he still ground out a pretty decent career. Most kids who grew up loving baseball would be ecstatic if they were told they could pitch in the majors for 11 seasons, and even more so if you told them that in one of those 11 seasons they’d wind up on the cover of Sports Illustrated. No, 16 WAR isn’t going to get Jeff Francis into the Hall of Fame, but even if it ended without a parade, he’ll always have Rocktober, and that’s pretty good.

In the days since we first caught wind of the Ken Giles trade, we’ve learned of a few players who weren’t previously thought to be included. For one, the Astros sent pitching prospect Mark Appel to Philly, rather than outfield prospect Derek Fisher. Additionally, the two teams also swapped Arauzess: Middle infield prospect Jonathan Arauz is headed to Houston, while pitching prospect Harold Arauz goes to Philly. Although they share a last name, and happened to be in the same trade, the two are unrelated. Baseball can be weird sometimes. Anyway, here’s what KATOH thinks of these prospects. Note that WAR figures represent projected WAR through the player’s age-28 season based on 2015 minor-league stats.

Jonathan Arauz, 3.9 WAR (Profile)

The Phillies signed Jonathan Arauz out of Panama with a $600,000 bonus in the summer of 2014. Although he didn’t turn 17 until August, the Phillies brought Arauz stateside to start his pro career, and he didn’t embarrass himself. He hit .254/.309/.370 in 44 games while splitting time between second base and shortstop.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last year, one of the worst second-half pitchers in baseball was Jeff Samardzija. There wasn’t really a drop-off in his stuff, though, so the Giants saw enough to sign him to a big free-agent contract. Another pitcher who struggled in the second half, a bit more famously, was Johnny Cueto, but again, the Giants saw enough to now sign him to a big free-agent contract, too:

Johnny Cueto’s deal with #SFGiants is for six years and $130M with an opt out after 2 years.

— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) December 14, 2015

In Nashville, I was talking to someone in a front office, and we discussed whether Cueto would end up with more than the Diamondbacks were said to have offered him. The word is that Cueto turned down six years and something around $120 million from Arizona. The Giants are giving him a little more, and an opt-out, so Cueto’s clearly doing fine. It’s a bigger deal, in a more pitcher-friendly environment. As risky as Cueto might seem, Jordan Zimmermann might have no fewer red flags, and he got five years and $110 million. Cueto deserves the extra season.

Cueto is obviously a tough nut to crack. People don’t love his durability, but he’s cleared 450 innings the last two seasons. He comes off as a higher-maintenance sort, but his results have mostly been outstanding, and he recently worked that World Series complete game. You don’t want to believe too much in the playoff-redemption narrative — Cueto had 10 walks, 19 strikeouts, and a 5.40 ERA. But the Giants aren’t signing Cueto because of his time in Kansas City. They’re signing him because of what he did with Cincinnati, and San Francisco should provide a favorable environment. What teams care about is run prevention, and Cueto has prevented runs better than the majority of starting pitchers for the last several years.

We’ll see if he continues to beat his peripherals. Over the last six years, between the ages of 24 – 29, Cueto’s ERA- has been better than his FIP- by 15 points. Here are the biggest such differences over the last 50 years, within that age window:

• Jim Palmer, 18 points
• Johnny Cueto, 15
• Dave Stieb, 15
• Catfish Hunter, 14
• Mike Torrez, 14
• Barry Zito, 14

From age-30 on, Palmer had a difference of 15 points. Stieb, 8 points. Hunter, 4 points. Torrez, -3 points. Zito, -3 points. So that’s not super encouraging, nor is the simple presence of Zito, who has some Cueto parallels. It’s a name that sends shivers.

But Johnny Cueto isn’t Barry Zito. Johnny Cueto isn’t anyone but Johnny Cueto, and last year his stuff didn’t fall apart, and he was awesome in the National League. Now he returns to the National League, with a good team and a good coaching staff in a friendly environment. The Giants recognize and accept the risk in the pitchers they’ve signed. Higher risk doesn’t mean a higher chance of this being a mistake, necessarily. It’s just about big upside and big downside. Presented the option of going big or going home, the Giants have leaped at the chance for the former.

Well, it seems like the Cubs have won the Jason Heyward sweepstakes.

Multiple sources indicate Heyward has indeed chosen Cubs over Cards, Nats.

— Gordon Wittenmyer (@GDubCub) December 11, 2015

BREAKING: Heyward has decision. Told now it's #Cubs. Source earlier told PD #Cardinals alerted they're out. https://t.co/8gMFYljxEc Updated

— Derrick Goold (@dgoold) December 11, 2015

Cubs are believed to have gotten heyward for less than $200M. Apparently taking less to be at addison and clark. @GDubCub 1st

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) December 11, 2015

At “less than $200 million”, as Heyman reported, I’m guessing the deal will end up at $192 million over eight years, or something in that range. He’ll almost certainly have an opt-out, probably after the third or fourth year. We should find out official terms soon, but one thing looks like a safe bet: the 2016 Cubs are going to be the pre-season favorites to win the NL Central.