A First Look at White Sox Outfielder Trayce Thompson

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August 6, 2015

With the end of the minor league drawing near, teams are starting to call up some of their more promising Triple-A players to the big leagues. Just this week, we’ve had the pleasure of seeing Richie Shaffer, Jon Gray, Henry Owens and Luis Severino take the field for the first time. Also called up, but somewhat lost in the shuffle, was 24-year-old White Sox outfielder Trayce Thompson, who struck out in his one trip to the plate so far.

The White Sox called up Thompson to replace J.B. Shuck, who’s set to miss at least the next couple of weeks with a hamstring strain. A former second round pick, Thompson has always been a premium athlete. In fact, he’s the son of former NBA center Mychal Thompson, and the brother of Klay Thompson of the Golden State Warriors. Athleticism clearly runs in the family.

Yet despite his tremendous athletic ability, Thompson’s unrefined baseball skills have rendered him a fringe prospect over the course of his minor league stay. With a .180 Isolated Power and 11 steals, he demonstrated an enticing combination of power and speed in Triple-A this year. However, his 5% walk rate and 19% strikeout rate speak to his unrefined approach at the plate. Read the rest of this entry »


2015 Park Factors Update

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August 5, 2015

Last night we updated our park factors for the 2015 season and made a slight correction to our FIP pitching park factors.

The correction is very small and effects almost all teams by less than .01. Of note, Rockies teams in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s, had the largest impact and will have their FIP park factors increased by about .03.


Dave Dombrowski Out in Detroit

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August 4, 2015

In a move that seemingly came out of nowhere, Tigers owner Mike Ilitch has announced today that the team has released Dave Dombrowski from his contract so he can pursue other opportunities elsewhere. Assistant GM Al Avila was promoted to replace him as General Manager of the team, effective immediately.

Dombrowski wasn’t under contract past this year, so there have been rumors that he could take a job with another organization this winter, but it’s a bit surprising to see the Tigers let him go now. One could potentially connect the dots with Larry Lucchino being removed from the Red Sox CEO role yesterday — perhaps Dombrowski suggested to Ilitch that he’d like to interview for that job, and Ilitch decided to let him go in order to do so — but the released statement makes it sound like this was more Ilitch’s decision than Dombrowski’s.

Clearly, Dombrowski has been quite successful in Detroit, even though the 2015 season didn’t go as the team had hoped, and he’ll be in high demand this winter. The Blue Jays are still looking for a long-term CEO replacement for the retiring Paul Beeston, and he’d potentially be a fit in Anaheim as well, where the front office is still under construction after Jerry Dipoto resigned last month. If the Mariners or Brewers decide to turn over their baseball operations departments, I’d expect both would be highly interested in Dombrowski as well.

There’s a press conference in half an hour, and perhaps there the Tigers will clarify whether this was done now because the team already knew Dombrowski was leaving this winter anyway, or whether he was shown the door because of the team’s failures on the field this year. Either way, I’d expect Dombrowski will become one of the most coveted free agents out there, and will probably have his pick of which organization he wants to run next.


Deadline Day Transaction/Rumor Omnibus Post

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July 31, 2015

At the winter meetings last year, there were so many concurrent trades that I literally couldn’t finish typing the news to one post before I had to start on the next, and finally, I just gave up and created an omnibus post for all the trade announcements at one time. Given that there are still a good number of potential deals on the table for today, I’m going to follow the same strategy today, but get a jump on things, putting the catch-all post up early, so we can use this to put up tidbits of deals as they come out. We’ll be continually updating this post, mostly with things from various Twitter feeds, throughout the day, and will be writing longer reactions to the trades after they happen.

Below, you’ll find a running list of “rumored deals.” Once they turn from rumor into deal, they will go to the bottom of the page, under “done deals.” The “rumored deals” will be updated with the most recent rumor moving to the top of the block. Got it? Good, keep it.

RUMORED DEALS

Dodgers Moving Alex Wood Already?

The Aroldis Chapman Market

Oh Boy — Or Not

Craig Kimbrel’s Market

All the Nerdy Teams Want Tyson Ross or Carlos Carrasco

DONE DEALS

Mets Get Yoenis Cespedes, Not Jay Bruce

A’s Get Felix Doubront


Twins Get Kevin Jepsen

Blue Jays Get Ben Revere

Cubs Get Dan Haren

Blue Jays Get Mark Lowe

Cardinals Get Jonathan Broxton

Orioles Get Gerardo Parra


Mets Reportedly Acquire Cespedes

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July 31, 2015

When the Tigers traded Rick Porcello to the Red Sox for Yoenis Cespedes in December, they exchanged one player going into the final year of his contract for another (Detroit also got reliever Alex Wilson in the deal). Boston subsequently inked Porcello to a four-year extension worth $82.5 million. Detroit went in another direction, opting to hold their cards on Cespedes. Today, they dealt him to the Mets in exchange for a pair of prospects.

Exactly how much interest Dave Dombrowski and Company had in extending Porcello prior to moving him last winter is hard to say. Conversely, it’s safe to say they didn’t feel he was worth what it would take to retain him. Based on his performance in Boston, they were right in their evaluation. Read the rest of this entry »


Ben Revere the Newest New Blue Jay

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July 31, 2015

This one isn’t yet officially official, but it seems on the verge: the Blue Jays are about to pick up Ben Revere from the Phillies. No word on the return, but for this:

Revere was long known to be available. He had next to no place on the Phillies, moving forward, and several contenders checked in, the Jays ultimately emerging victorious in the…well, I guess sweepstakes, if you want to call it that. Of some interest here is that Revere doesn’t have to be a rental, as he still has another two years of arbitration eligibility. He’s a little bit pricey, because he’s a Super Two player, but he is affordable in the future if that’s the way the Jays elect to go.

They aren’t doing this because of the future, though. This is clearly about another strengthening of the immediate roster, with the Jays fully committed to winning right away. As a player, Revere couldn’t be any less mysterious. He’s perfectly well understood, and his skillset is in the vicinity of average, regardless of which WAR you like to use. So this has nothing on the Troy Tulowitzki addition, but Revere’s still going to be an upgrade in left field. This morning, the Jays projected as one of the worst teams in baseball, as far as their left-field situation was concerned. Now Revere slides in, handling at least right-handed pitchers and relieving the team of Ezequiel Carrera. Danny Valencia will also spend less time hitting against righties, where he’s historically struggled.

Revere helps the outfield, basically, and he’s also fleet of foot, which you can’t say of many of his new teammates. Perhaps surprisingly, the Jays have been an above-average baserunning team, but the leader in steals is the departed Jose Reyes, with Kevin Pillar the only other guy with more than four. Revere preserves an element present with Reyes, and so he adds that element back with Reyes gone. Pitchers have already had enough trouble working with the Blue Jays’ power at the plate; now they’ll have Revere to worry about on the bases. It’s a very small thing, and maybe not a thing, but this’ll be just another way for the Jays offense to dole out unpleasantness. It won’t be all about dingers.

The Jays thought they had their solution in Michael Saunders. He was supposed to be a pretty good left fielder, until injuries conspired to eat up almost all of his season. Right now, Saunders is still looking to return in several weeks, so he’s not out for the remainder, but the Jays have learned they can’t count on him to provide anything consistent, so they opted for Revere and will deal with Saunders when they need to. Maybe that means he’s a bench bat. He could be a decent one. Think of it as even more potential depth, for a team that’s accumulating it.

The Blue Jays still aren’t in playoff position. If they come up short, they can’t say they never saw it coming. But what they are now might be the best team in the American League. They’ve got two months to get to where they want to be.

—

UPDATE

Trade’s official now. Going to the Phillies: Jimmy Cordero and Alberto Tirado. Cordero’s a 23-year-old righty reliever who’s moved into Double-A this season. Tirado’s a 20-year-old righty reliever/long man in High-A. Before the year, Kiley had Tirado as the Jays’ No. 17 prospect, while Cordero was filed under “others of note.”


Gerardo Parra: Changed Man?

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July 31, 2015

Here’s one way to figure the Orioles did well in adding rental Gerardo Parra on Friday — so far this year, he’s recorded a 140 wRC+. That ties him with Todd Frazier for 22nd overall, and it puts him also in the company of names like Albert Pujols and Manny Machado. You don’t have to look deep if you don’t want to. The Orioles added Parra to their outfield. Why? Parra has been a really good hitter. Look how simple baseball is.

But hey, this season has been a little out of character for a guy who’s previously been a tweener. Understandably, the market wasn’t totally buying Parra’s offensive breakout. And you don’t have to, either, but I thought I’d at least introduce some numbers. Here’s Gerardo Parra, pulling the ball, by wRC+ over his career:

2009: 124
2010: 39
2011: 151
2012: 106
2013: 73
2014: 107
2015: 239

And, his groundball rates when pulling the ball:

2009: 73%
2010: 82%
2011: 69%
2012: 77%
2013: 78%
2014: 74%
2015: 59%

Obviously, numbers bounce around. And Parra’s big season hasn’t been all about hitting the ball to right and right-center. But this is at least curious, and at best an indicator of real change. Parra’s hitting a career-low rate of groundballs, overall, with a career-best hard-hit rate, and what might follow from that is that he’s gotten better about selectively lifting the ball. And also doing so with authority. Could be a change to his swing. Don’t have time to look at that now, but Parra was always more of a speedy sort. Keep in mind that Carlos Gomez was more of a speed-and-slap hitter until he went to Milwaukee, where they unlocked his strength. The Brewers let Gomez become a power hitter, and maybe they saw something similar in Parra. Last year, after he joined the Brewers from the Diamondbacks, his grounder rate dropped almost immediately.

It’s just something to think about. And Parra, even now, is only 28, so he could have some good years left. Looking at the rest-of-season projections, and normalizing them all to a per-200-plate-appearances basis, Parra projects about as well as Corey Dickerson and Randal Grichuk. He projects short of Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Upton, but if you buy Parra’s offensive improvement, he closes that gap quickly. This year, Parra’s out-hit them both. And, historically, he’s been a good defender.

Is Gerardo Parra sort of the new Carlos Gomez? Just maybe. He was already a useful player, but now the Orioles also found some upside. And they have a chance to sign Parra to an extension, if they want, and if they’re buying his improvement. The Brewers extended Gomez for three years and $24 million when he was fresh off his first strong offensive year. He only got better, and the deal looked like a bargain immediately.

What the Orioles gave up isn’t nothing. Zach Davies is a real prospect, starting every few days in Triple-A. While his fastball is underwhelming, he features a real good changeup, and those are the sorts of pitching prospects who tend to get underrated by the overall scouting community. With a few more strikes, or a step forward with his breaking ball, Davies could be a big-league starter soon. Congratulations to the Brewers! Davies should help them in 2016. Parra will help the Orioles now, as they try to compete with the Yankees and the extremely flashy Blue Jays. And maybe, just maybe, Parra will stick around. He might’ve become a special player.


Blue Jays Get New Old Mark Lowe to Shorten Games

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July 31, 2015

The Blue Jays’ bullpen hasn’t been terrible this year, but there are two important names ahead of them if you rank the American League’s relievers by teams: the Yankees and the Orioles. But with the additions of Aaron Sanchez, LaTroy Hawkins, and now Mark Lowe, things might change a bit for the Blue Jays.

If you haven’t checked in with Mark Lowe recently, you may not have noticed that he’s returned to some of his former glory. In the results category, yes, but also in a more important category:

Read the rest of this entry »


Soria Moves from Motown to Pittsburgh

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July 30, 2015

Twelve months after being acquired from Texas – and not saving a beleaguered bullpen – Joakim Soria has departed Detroit. The Tigers have traded the 31-year-old right-hander to the Pirates for 23-year-old shortstop prospect JaCoby Jones.

Soria did a decent job in Motown, but with his team’s playoff chances waning, the free-agent-to-be was destined to be dealt. Pittsburgh is a good fit. Soria isn’t sexy, but he’ll add valuable relief depth to a team capable of winning it all.

What can Pirates fans expect to see from their new acquisition? Read the rest of this entry »


Projecting the Prospects in the Dustin Ackley Trade

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July 30, 2015

At long last, the Yankees have finally managed to land Dustin Ackley. The Bombers swung a deal for the very failed prospect in exchange for Ramon Flores and Jose Ramirez. Here’s what the data say on the two prospects headed to Seattle. (Note: WAR figures denote WAR through age-28 season.)

Ramon Flores, 8.1 WAR

Aside from 33 plate appearances in the Bronx, Ramon Flores has spent the entire year playing at the Triple-A level, where he’s put together a nice little .286/.377/.417 season. The 23-year-old’s biggest strength is his ability to control the strike zone. He’s walked nearly as much as he’s struck out in Triple-A this year (12% vs. 13%), and he’s posted similar numbers in his previous minor-league seasons. He complements these plate-coverage skills with modest power (.130 ISO) and a dash of speed. Flores also played at the Triple-A level last season, where he hit .247/.339/.443 in 63 games around an ankle injury.

Read the rest of this entry »


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