The Yankees had been chasing Dustin Ackley for a while. I don’t know exactly how long the pursuit had gone on, but I remember rumors around the 2013 winter meetings, and they’ve popped up from time to time since. Somewhere, in the back of his mind, Brian Cashman maintained his interest in Ackley, and now he’s finally gotten Jack Zduriencik to crack, with Ackley going to the Yankees in exchange for Ramon Flores and Jose Ramirez.

For an idea of how Ackley’s season has gone, he started 20 games in May, and he’s started a combined 19 games in June and July. He’s sitting on a dreadful…pretty much everything, so his playing time has dwindled, and so his availability has increased. With that said, just last season, Ackley was about a league-average hitter, and now he’s about to become a left-handed hitter in Yankee Stadium. Plus there’s, you know, everything else.

The background, I mean. The pedigree. There’s what Ackley has been, and there’s what Ackley was supposed to be, and while he’s 27 years old now, there’s still the feeling that his bat could be unleashed. Just the other day, I was thinking about a hypothetical reader poll, in which I ask the audience what it thinks Ackley would’ve developed into had he been drafted by, say, the Cardinals. Not that we have any way of knowing the truth, but I thought it could be fun to look at the results anyway, and the underlying suggestion is that perhaps Ackley wasn’t handled right. Maybe there are things that could be improved, that might only improve with another organization. An organization like the Yankees.

What’s tougher to see is exactly how Ackley fits. In the past, he was a second baseman, and he was pretty good at it. More recently, he’s been an outfielder, but he doesn’t have the arm strength for right. Maybe Ackley replaces Stephen Drew, but that doesn’t seem like a foregone conclusion. It’s also possible Ackley will just be flipped somewhere else, but given the history of the Yankees’ pursuit here, it seems more like they’ll find him a spot. If he ends up at second base, he could be adequate, and he’s under control another two years. If he roves around and hangs out on the bench, that’s not a real interesting player, but someone had to take this chance, just to see if different instruction might cause it all to click. Prospect sheen lasts a while, and it often lasts beyond the first organization.

Given how little they’ve used him of late, the Mariners won’t miss Ackley too much, and maybe there’s psychological value in just turning the page. Every time he walked up with a sub-.220 average just served as a reminder of busted promise. The return: Ramirez is a 25-year-old reliever, and Flores is a 23-year-old outfielder. Before the year, Kiley had Flores at No. 19 in the Yankees’ system, and Ramirez at No. 23. Some excerpts:

Flores is one of those players that reached his upside quickly, but doesn’t have much more to offer than as a solid part-time player. He has solid bat speed, great plate discipline and feel to hit with good plate coverage, but average at best power that limits the damage he can do.

And:

Ramirez is one of the most exciting players on this list; in the linked video, he hit 100 mph with a 70 changeup and an inconsistent slider that flashes average to slightly above. His problem has been like Heathcott; he’s can’t stay on the field, but Ramirez was big league ready at least a year ago. None of Ramirez’s injuries have been to his arm, but to his oblique, caused by a lack of body fat and his quick-twitch movements on the mound.

Flores has had a solid all-around season in Triple-A, and maybe he’s ready to be a role player. Hell, maybe he’s ready to be just as good as recent versions of Dustin Ackley. Ramirez has had a decent season in Triple-A, working in 32 games, but he’s struggled to throw consistent strikes, which applies to most relief prospects who aren’t elite-level relief prospects. A few times, Ramirez has popped up in the majors, throwing in the mid- to high-90s with a mid-80s changeup. He’s a small amount of improvement away from being a reliable relief arm, which the Mariners have sorely needed all season.

This is the way the Dustin Ackley Era ends. Overshadowed by other moves, exchanged for an outfield reserve and a reliever with insufficient present control. Granted, if Ackley keeps playing like he’s played, the Mariners will be happy to have their guys. And the Yankees will be happy to finally have their shot at solving what’s been an unsolvable problem. I hear there could be a hefty reward.

Rob Kaminsky, who was the Cardinals first-round pick in 2013, has pitched very well as a 20-year-old in High-A this year. In 95 innings over 17 starts, he’s recorded a 2.09 ERA and 2.53 FIP. His 20% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate have both been better than league average, but he’s also benefited from allowing zero home runs this year. His ability to keep the ball in the park is nothing new, as he’s yielded all of four dingers in his 217 innings as a pro.

Running Kaminsky’s 2015 numbers through the KATOH machine yields a forecast of 2.8 WAR through his age-28 season, which would have put him 183rd on KATOH’s preseason list. This is a notch higher than his 2.5 WAR KATOH projection based on his 2014 campaign in Low-A. These forecasts feel awfully low for a player of Kaminsky’s prospect status, especially considering he’s been one of the best performers in High-A at the tender age of 20. However, KATOH heavily values a pitcher’s strikeout rate for innings thrown in the low minors, and Kaminsky’s strikeout numbers have been rather mediocre. Instead, Kaminsky’s gotten it done by suppressing homers and limiting walks, which on the aggregate, are relatively weak predictors of big-league success.

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Despite their preference to avoid rentals, the Blue Jays have always made the most sense for David Price. While most other contenders have solid enough alternatives — especially with the Dodgers apparently on the verge of landing two quality starters in one fell swoop — to avoid paying a premium price for a short-term upgrade, the Blue Jays rotation are not in that position, and after designating Felix Doubront for assignment, they don’t even have a #5 starter at the moment. So this shouldn’t be a surprise.

sources: blue Jays are making a major push for david price

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) July 30, 2015

Executive involved in bidding for Price believes #BlueJays may indeed be close to landing him. “Not going to go on much longer,” he said.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 30, 2015

The Blue Jays have the kinds of young talent that the Tigers will be interested in, given their short-term window; a pitcher like Daniel Norris could replace Price immediately, giving the team a starter for 2016 and beyond. There’s a natural fit on both sides here, so both teams should be incentivized to make a deal with each other.

The interesting thing will be to see if the deal expands beyond Price. While the Blue Jays line-up is already too right-handed, they do need a better left fielder, and the Tigers are going to trade Yoenis Cespedes, most likely. If the Tigers insist on getting an elite return, perhaps the two teams will work out a deal that upgrades Toronto’s two weakest spots at the same time. After all, if you’re giving up big pieces of your farm system for a rental, you probably shouldn’t stop short and still be rolling out Ezequiel Carrera in the postseason.

Perhaps another team will get involved, but no team has a real reason to bid more on Price than the Blue Jays do. It’s the fit that makes the most sense, and should probably be the deal that gets done.

Cole Hamels is finally getting traded. After having him on the block for the better part of the last few years, the Phillies have finally struck a deal to send Hamels to Texas, with the Rangers trading from their prospect stockpile to add a starter who they hope will help them get back to winning baseball in 2016. The deal, as reported by Evan Grant:

FInal deal and its a doozy: Matt Harrison, Alec Asher, Jerad Eickhoff, Nick Williams, Jorge Alfaro & Jake Thompson for Hamels+Diekman+Cash.

— Evan Grant (@Evan_P_Grant) July 30, 2015

In Thompson, Alfaro, Williams, Eickhoff, and Alec Asher, the Phillies get Kiley McDaniels pre-season #3, #4, #9, #17, and #23 prospects in the Rangers system, though that certainly underrates Williams, who has taken a significant step forward in Double-A this year. Thompson, Alfaro, and Williams are all likely 50 or 55 FV guys — Kiley will have his write-ups on the full return soon — who will probably rate in the back half of next year’s Top 100 lists, while Eickhoff and Asher are more depth pieces than impact talents. Harrison is in the deal to off-set some of Hamels remaining salary, so while the Phillies are also said to be including cash, I’d expect that the bulk of the pay-down of his deal comes in the form of taking the $28 million Harrison is still owed over the next two seasons.

The Rangers land a high-quality starter under control for the next three years at a discounted salary (especially when subtracting Harrison’s cost is factored in), giving them a leg up on improving their 2016 team without having to enter the bidding war for the free agent starters this winter. The Phillies finally kick off their rebuild with three solid prospects and a few depth pieces, though not the single elite talent they had been seeking previously. While I remain somewhat skeptical about the Rangers ability to turn their current roster into a strong 2016 contender, for this price, this is a deal worth making. And the Phillies had to move on from the endless speculation, so it was time to take the best deal on the table, which is what Ruben Amaro finally did.

Well, this is fun.

#Braves lefty Alex Wood would go to #Dodgers if three-team deal with #Marlins is completed, sources tell me and @jonmorosi.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 30, 2015

#Braves reliever Jim Johnson also would go to #Dodgers, sources tell me and @jonmorosi. Morse and compensation pick would go to #Braves.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 30, 2015

So instead of this morning’s “Dodgers buy Mat Latos and a pick” deal, this actually looks to be Dodgers give up as-yet-unnamed talent for Alex Wood, Mat Latos, and Jim Johnson, thus solving their pitching problems in one fell swoop. And while there’s no question that the Braves are going to get a significant return for the Wood/Johnson package, this will almost certainly be a cheaper alternative to the big-name guys the Dodgers have rumored to be in on; with Wood and Latos joining Brett Anderson at the back of the rotation, you’d have to think this would take the Dodgers out of the running for David Price or Cole Hamels.

I’ll say this for the new front offices in both LA and Atlanta; they certainly aren’t boring.

One of the most entertaining — or infuriating, depending on your perspective — aspects of the trade deadline is the very slow way news leaks out, one tidbit after another. Like a trail of breadcrumbs, deals get pushed into public consciousness one nugget at a time. Tonight’s trail? The Mets are working on a deal for a hitter. The breadcrumbs.

#Mets still working on a deal that apparently would really please fans if it materialized.

— Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinESPN) July 29, 2015

Told Mets are indeed very close to pulling off a big trade. No sense of who it is, but chance it’s a big bat.

— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) July 29, 2015

Mets working on a trade. Not sure when of it will be done, but there's momentum. Like others, hearing it's so called big bat

— Andy Martino (@MartinoNYDN) July 29, 2015

Too much smoke for there to be no fire. So, who are they going after?

Cespedes out, Reds not moving Bruce at moment, I'm told. Parra trade fell apart last week. Mets almost certainly not on CarGo.

— Andy Martino (@MartinoNYDN) July 29, 2015

#Mets have talked to #Brewers about Carlos Gomez, sources tell me and @jonmorosi. No deal appears close. NYM also looking at other hitters.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 29, 2015

Process of elimination seems to point to Carlos Gomez, Justin Upton, or someone we haven’t yet realized is available. And, of course, Upton and the rest of the Padres just happen to be playing the Mets at Citi Field right now, so if you want to believe that the Mets are so cheap that they waited to make a deal until they could save on the plane fare, then maybe you should buy into Upton being the guy. But since Gomez is under control for next year, and could fill center field if (when?) Juan Lagares needs a DL stint, he seems like a better fit for a team that is likely playing for a Wild Card berth than a rental corner OF.

Odds are we’ll find out in the next few hours, one kernel of information at a time.

After a few weeks of will-they-or-won’t-they speculation, the Tigers have reportedly decided that 2015 just isn’t going to be their year after all, and are going to start taking offers for pending free agents David Price and Yoenis Cespedes, among others. Price should be expected to command an equal (or likely somewhat better) return to what Johnny Cueto fetched from the Royals, while Cespedes becomes another option in an outfield market that is suddenly looking a little bit crowded.

The teams in the hunt for rent-an-aces have been pretty clearly defined, with the Blue Jays and Dodgers mentioned the most frequently, and the Yankees, Cubs, Giants, and Astros also a possibility. With Dallas Keuchel and Scott Kazmir at the front of their rotation, the Astros might not be as inclined to pay for a third lefty, which might make them a little too easy to match up against in a postseason series, so I’d probably put them on the outer edges of the Price market, but they reportedly made a run at Cole Hamels, so it’s not impossible to think they’ll pivot to make a run at Price as well.

I still don’t think the Cubs really should be in the market for a frontline starter not under control beyond this season either, as they have both Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta as legitimate options to start a Wild Card game and Game 1 of a postseason series if they reach those spots. Giving up significant long-term assets to bump one of their best players out of the only playoff game they might appear in doesn’t seem like a good risk-reward balance.

So for my money, the front-runners should be Toronto, LA (if they don’t get Hamels), San Francisco, and New York. But the deadline is often full of mystery, and no one saw the Jon Lester/Yoenis Cespedes trade coming a year ago, so perhaps we’ll see another surprise entry into the market to give Detroit the kind of short-term package they’re looking for. With Dombrowski stating that this is a “reboot” towards making their 2016 team better, this isn’t going to be about getting the best prospect package back, but about who can offer the most short-term help for the Tigers roster next year.

The Cespedes market isn’t as clear cut, as a number of teams could use another good outfielder. Considering that he’s having a better season than Justin Upton and the Tigers don’t have a qualifying offer to use as leverage to demand a certain minimum return in order to make a deal, teams interested in Upton may do well to pivot to Cespedes instead. The big losers in this news are likely the San Diego Padres, who might have just seen their interested buyers get distracted by newer and shinier objects up in Detroit.

Just one day after they acquired Shane Victorino to sure up their outfield, the Angels brought two more outfielders into the fold in separate deals. First, they acquired David Murphy from the Indians in exchange for infielder Eric Stamets. Minutes later, we learned they also acquired David DeJesus from the Rays for pitcher Eduar Lopez. Here’s the skinny on the prospects the Angels gave up to add these Davids into their outfield mix.

Eric Stamets

Stamets is a glove-first shortstop with very little power to speak of. He’s hit a weak .248/.306/.360 in Double-A this year, which is actually a modest improvement over his .235/.293/.314 showing from the same level last year. Stamets’ one strong suit is that he puts the ball in play quite often. His 10% strikeout rate is among the lowest at the Double-A level. The problem, though, is that those balls in play rarely result in good outcomes. His consistently low ISOs and BABIPs suggest he hits the ball without much authority.

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The Dodgers were known to be in the market for starting pitching, and this morning, it looks like they’ve added an arm to their rotation.

Source: Latos, Morse to Dodgers for prospects. At least one competitive balance pick also to Dodgers. W/ Latos off board Haren still in play

— Gordon Wittenmyer (@GDubCub) July 29, 2015

Latos always seemed what likely to land with an analytically-inclined club, given his mediocre ERA but solid FIP/xFIP numbers, and his reputation for being a bit of an issue in the clubhouse, so perhaps we should have anticipated LA as a likely destination. What this means for the team’s reported pursuit of Cole Hamels remains to be seen, but the Dodgers probably shouldn’t stop trying to acquire another pitcher, given Brett Anderson’s health track record.

Morse being included in the deal doesn’t make sense from a baseball perspective, given that the Dodgers already have a strong bench that includes a bunch of guys who are better than him, but keep in mind that the Dodgers have been aggressively using their financial resources to buy prospects, and I’d guess that this is just more of that trend continuing; rather than giving up talent to get Latos, perhaps the Dodgers convinced the Marlins to take a nothing return if LA took the remainder of Morse’s contract, which has $3 million left this year and $8 million next year.

In fact, Wittenmyer’s report makes it sound like the Dodgers are actually the ones potentially getting prospects here, with the “at least one competitive balance pick” comment. If the Dodgers are getting multiple picks back with Latos, then adding Morse’s salary might simply be the cost they were willing to pay to do so. And of course, the Marlins seem to be continually more interested in cost reductions than putting a good team on the field, so this would fit their M.O. perfectly.

We’ll have a full write-up of the deal when all the details of the deal are known.

The floodgates are wide open, my friends. The latest trade to come down the pike is between the Phillies and the Nationals. This one has Jonathan Papelbon headed to the Washington Nationals in exchange for 22-year-old pitcher Nicholas Pivetta. Here’s what the data say about Mr. Pivetta and his future.

Pivetta holds a 3.02 ERA and 3.96 FIP through 101 innings this year, with most of those innings coming at the High-A level. The Nationals bumped Pivetta up to Double-A a couple of weeks ago, where he’s gotten shellacked in three starts. Both his ERA and FIP are north of 7.00 through 15 Double-A innings.

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