Rangers Set To Acquire Cole Hamels
Cole Hamels is finally getting traded. After having him on the block for the better part of the last few years, the Phillies have finally struck a deal to send Hamels to Texas, with the Rangers trading from their prospect stockpile to add a starter who they hope will help them get back to winning baseball in 2016. The deal, as reported by Evan Grant:
FInal deal and its a doozy: Matt Harrison, Alec Asher, Jerad Eickhoff, Nick Williams, Jorge Alfaro & Jake Thompson for Hamels+Diekman+Cash.
— Evan Grant (@Evan_P_Grant) July 30, 2015
In Thompson, Alfaro, Williams, Eickhoff, and Alec Asher, the Phillies get Kiley McDaniels pre-season #3, #4, #9, #17, and #23 prospects in the Rangers system, though that certainly underrates Williams, who has taken a significant step forward in Double-A this year. Thompson, Alfaro, and Williams are all likely 50 or 55 FV guys — Kiley will have his write-ups on the full return soon — who will probably rate in the back half of next year’s Top 100 lists, while Eickhoff and Asher are more depth pieces than impact talents. Harrison is in the deal to off-set some of Hamels remaining salary, so while the Phillies are also said to be including cash, I’d expect that the bulk of the pay-down of his deal comes in the form of taking the $28 million Harrison is still owed over the next two seasons.
The Rangers land a high-quality starter under control for the next three years at a discounted salary (especially when subtracting Harrison’s cost is factored in), giving them a leg up on improving their 2016 team without having to enter the bidding war for the free agent starters this winter. The Phillies finally kick off their rebuild with three solid prospects and a few depth pieces, though not the single elite talent they had been seeking previously. While I remain somewhat skeptical about the Rangers ability to turn their current roster into a strong 2016 contender, for this price, this is a deal worth making. And the Phillies had to move on from the endless speculation, so it was time to take the best deal on the table, which is what Ruben Amaro finally did.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
What? Dave doesn’t want to say bad things about how dumb the rangers are? Come on.
go away
I wish I actually like Alfaro much at all, but Williams and Thompson make it a diversified basket of “potential.” Of course the Phillies would be interested in two of the most hack-tastic hitters in all the minor-leagues but I like Williams more than his previously absurd K:BB ratios would justify. Hope I’m right. Can he be the next Adam Jones? Just please don’t let him be the next Doug Glanville.
70 arm on Alfaro
But he’s only thrown out 27% of base stealers in the minors.
He has lots of defensive tools but hasn’t learned how to play the position at all. 51 PBs in 170 or so games caught in 2013-2014.
I thought 30-35% caught was at least acceptable if not average in MLB? Am I totally off? It seems like if has the arm he has a chance to develop the moves to show it off…
Alfaro is definitely hacktastic, but Williams has turned the corner. Adam Jones is not out of the question at the high end of his potential (Glanville or Dominic Brown would be like the 25th percentile of his possibilities)
So the Rangers are getting cash in addition to getting ride of Harrison and the 26 million they owe him over the next 2 years?
Plus the $2m buyout. So the Rangers are paying Hamels (subtracting what they would have paid Harrison) about $70m if his option vests (more than 400 IP in 2017-18), $66m if the team picks up his option, and just $52m if they decline his option. And that doesn’t even include the money the Phillies are sending.
You would think 3.6 seasons of Hamels at that price would be worth more than what they got in return.
truth
Cliff Lee deal to Mariners all over again…
Not even close
worse? i hope not but u may be correct…
Always a risk when you choose quantity over quality
Nick Williams ranked 21 by BP latest list
He looks promising, but he will need development still. Even then hitting outfielders seem to be easier to find in a draft than infielders with power. I think in immediate terms the sum of all parts makes it look okay, but Williams is a piece the team with top draft picks coming might be more able to get than another position.
But he’s only 64th on MLB’s latest, with Alfaro 69th. With the amount of money the Phillies are including by taking Harrison’s contract plus the cash they are including, you would think they’d get more in return.
Mlb.com lists are usually a joke
But they have Jim Callis (formerly of BA) working for them now. They might have been (although it would be nice to look at their past lists and see how they did) but I don’t think that’s true anymore.
always a risk when you take quality over quantity, too. Always a risk doing anything as a baseball GM, you’re managing very volatile assets.
I love this for the Phils. Fills out some great organizational depth, and puts them on a path to have most of the lineup set for 2017, with a quality bullpen and the building blocks of a solid rotation (with Nola + hopefully at least one of Morgan, Eflin, Biddle).
Phillies fans are going to be upset because the didn’t get Gallo (or Judge from the Yanks, or Seager from the Dodgers, which I tried to explain to my coworkers in the nicest way possible was NOT happening/ridiculous), but this is what they needed, and is at least a good imitation of how well-run teams build back up.
Harrison contract alone means the Phillies gave the Rangers one free year of Hamels. The prospects may not be bad, but I would be surprised if they contributed anywhere near the value of one year of Hamels in the next few seasons. This looks like the 100 years war style rebuild. Pittsburgh is looking like a really nice place to move these days.
100 years war? really? WTF do u mean, but i think bad deal, just don’t get your analogy
The 100 Years War, was a very long war fought a long time ago, with stops and starts, that didn’t do much in immediately helping anyone involved. It did help establish the British Empire though… Sort of.
I guess I am just depressed really… It was a bad analogy I guess.
It’s klassy to wear your AJ Burnett Phillies jersey to PNC
That might be the biggest reason I don’t move. Not wearing another teams jersey to the hometown park but the horrible shame of some of the names on the backs of the jerseys.
Anyhow, I jest. We had our day and some truly outstanding players. This is no time for fair weather anything, but this trade could have been better.
I like the deal. None of the prospects are lights out, no doubt future Hall of Famers, but they’re solid and have a ton of potential. The farm has been bolstered with these guys who, if things go well, could be moved for better pieces down the line. Considering also that the Phillies have a lot of money being freed up soon AND they are the easy favorites to have the number 1 pick in the draft next year, and I’d say things are looking up for Philly.
Just…gotta ignore those box scores for a while.
And Franco, Nola, and Crawford are all excellent rebuilding pieces. The kind that could make Dave’s top 50 trade value list as soon as next year. And also the kind that make a deal for this kind of organizational depth a really good one.
I’m surprised by the negative reaction here. We just spent months saying that Hamels really isn’t worth all that much and then Amaro gets 3 top 75 prospects in MLB for him, plus 2 guys who have a shot to start in MLB and people are complaining?
I don’t understand why the Philies would take on Harrison’s contract. It seemed like it was a fair deal already without them including him.
Agreed. Harrison seems like dead money, and sans a Gallo, why take him on. I am amazed no other team beat this offer, even with the numbers going. To me it looks like Williams and Alfaro + we might get lucky – 26 odd million.
Somebody has to start in the rotation. Instead of paying Texas an additional $30-$34 million (I don’t remember the number exactly), they’re taking on Harrison’s contract instead. It gets Philly someone who can start games (or, at least, a body that can take up space on the mound when the ump yells “Play ball!”). It rids Texas of a bloated contract. And hey, who knows? Maybe Harrison works things out down the line. Who’s to say?
If taking on Harrison’s contract is what the Phillies needed to do to bring in Alfaro, Williams, et. al, then I’m all for it.
Just some quick estimates;
I’ve got Hamels worth $105m over the guaranteed portion of the contract and he’s owed $84m, so $21m in surplus value. Plus the $32m owed Harrision plus $9.5m the Phillies sent back. Add in another $5m or so for Diekman and you’re looking at $68m or so in value to the Rangers, plus the value of the team option at the end of Hamels contract.
I’ve got Williams worth about $30m, Alfaro worth $20m, Thompson worth $10m, and the other two arms worth $5m each. That adds up to $70m going to the Phillies.
There are obviously a lot of assumptions here and you could easily make a set of assumptions that favors one team or the other, but it’s going to be tough to make this deal not a win/win, given the position of the two teams.
Anybody holding out for Gallo or any top 10 overall prospect was being unrealistic. With that contract, Hamels just isn’t worth it. I thought the Phillies did very well here getting three top 100 prospects, because I thought they’d only get one. That’s where all the cash comes into play.
And to be clear, this is both quality and quantity. The top three are all very good (top 100)prospects. There isn’t an elite guy (top 10 or 5 or #1) in there, but again, it was unrealistic to think the Phillies were going to get that for Hamels. This type of quality is what I expected, I just didn’t expect so much.
The guaranteed numbers make sense (I put 26 million for Harrison in error), and the projected numbers you estimated are fine as far that goes.
What I wonder is: if the Rangers sent that package with the required addition of Harrison, whether Phillie could have gotten something better than the package without taking money on. Gallo leaving the Rangers is unrealistic but other teams may have released a top prospect and additions for salary relief, or an equivalent package without 32 million tacked on.
Williams and Alfaro seem to be the equivalent of a top prospect. So maybe it’s just apples and oranges. I happy the ball is rolling. I just want a steeper incline.