The following changes/fixes/additions were made:

1. We now have projections for Jung-Ho Kang and Yasmany Tomas. Kang checks in with a .249/.307/.399 (.312 wOBA) line and Tomas with a .252/.292/.433 (.317 wOBA) line.

2. We tweaked our projected league offensive level. We were projecting an average ERA of 3.88 and are now projecting an average ERA of 3.83 (for comparison, MLB pitchers had a collective ERA of 3.74 last year and 3.87 the year before). Before, we projected an average wOBA of .319 and now we’re projecting an average wOBA of .317 (non-pitchers had a wOBA of .315 last year and .318 the year before). In short, we’ve moved from projecting an offensive level like that of 2013 to level between those of 2013 and 2014.

3. The levels that low minors pitchers stats are regressed towards were adjusted to reflect the fact that they are, in fact, low minors pitchers. Will Locante is a good example of this change. Previously, Locante projected to a 4.43 ERA with the thinking that, if he does pitch in a Major League bullpen this year, he must be better than his low minors numbers indicate. With our new regression mean, Locante projects to a 5.19 ERA. This is in some sense wrong, since if he does pitch in the Majors he’s probably better than that, but it’s also a better estimate of how good Locante is right now since this projection is not conditional on his pitching in the Major Leagues. Where we have a fastball velocity for a low minors pitcher (from a scouting report) his projection will now take into account both his velocity and the fact that he’s only pitched in the low minors.

4. Projections are adjusted to better take into account changing league offensive levels. This primarily affects minor leaguers and foreign players who have been pitching in other leagues (and we wanted to make this adjustment before projecting Kang and Tomas) but will also have a (muted) effect on pitchers whose past MLB data is from longer ago. To explain why we felt that this is necessary, in 2009 MLB pitchers struck out 18.0% of the batters they faced while pitchers in Japanese leagues stuck out 18.9%. Last year, however, MLB pitchers struck out 20.4% of batters and JPL and JCL pitchers continued to strike out 18.9% of batters. If we use the same translation in 2014 that we used in 2009 we would be underrating pitchers from the Japanese leagues. A similar phenomenon holds when translating minor league statistics to MLB levels. Our change would have helped Masahiro Tanaka if we had implemented this last year and it still helps him a bit: dropping his projected ERA to 3.37 from 3.44. This change is a boon to Noah Syndergaard, however, dropping his ERA all the way down to 3.61 from 3.91. Cuban batters also get a significant boost: Jose Abreu is up from a .385 wOBA to .394 wOBA and Rusney Castillo jumps up from .317 to .328.

5. You may also notice higher BB/9 projections and, accordingly, higher ERA projections for MLB relievers who haven’t thrown many innings in recent years. Joel Hanrahan’s BB/9 jumps from 3.2 to 3.7 and Daniel Hudson’s from 2.2 to 2.8.

6. Batters’ projected lineup slots were updated and R and RBI projections were adjusted accordingly.

We’re hoping that these mid-off-season adjustments don’t catch you off guard. Our thinking is that when we see ways in which our system is falling short, we should fix them as soon as we can. That said, we fully expect that this will be the last update to the underlying algorithm this off-season. Playing times and roles may well change but the system for producing player rate projections will not.

The legal sparring between the Washington Nationals and Mid-Atlantic Sports Network continued last week, with the Nationals asking the presiding judge in the case to modify the preliminary injunction issued last August. As background, the dispute centers on an arbitration decision issued in 2014 by MLB’s Revenue Sharing Definitions Committee (RSDC), which determined that MASN owes the Nationals roughly $60 million per year in broadcast rights fees (for more on the dispute, click here, here, here, and here).

MASN and the Baltimore Orioles (who own a majority share of the network) appealed this outcome to New York state court, alleging that the arbitration proceedings were biased for a variety of reasons. In August, Judge Lawrence Marks issued a preliminary injunction, blocking MLB from enforcing the arbitration decision until the suit was resolved. This was a modest victory for MASN, allowing the team to continue to pay the Nationals a lower broadcast rights fee pending a final hearing in the lawsuit (a difference of approximately $21 million per year).

Part of the reason that the judge decided to issue the injunction was his belief that the dispute could be resolved “expeditiously.” Originally, the court scheduled a final hearing in the case for December 2014. That date was eventually pushed back to mid-March, and then again recently to May 18, 2015.

The Nationals now contend that this delay has imposed a real hardship on the team, depriving it of the full broadcast rights fee determined by the RSDC for a much longer period of time than the court had originally envisioned. As a result, on Wednesday the team asked the court to order MASN to pay the Nationals the first quarterly installment of the full RSDC-approved broadcast rights fee (an installment of around $15 million, rather than the roughly $10 million MASN intends to pay). Washington justified its request in part by contending that because it is “not receiving fair market value for [its] broadcast rights,” it is being “placed at a competitive disadvantage compared to other teams, and [is] hamstrung in [its] ability to invest in efforts to improve the team and the stadium.”

MASN responded to the Nationals’ request later that same day. The network offered to increase the size of the bond it had secured to ensure that the Nationals would receive the additional broadcast revenues should the court eventually rule in Washington’s favor. But MASN argued that it should continue to be allowed to pay a reduced sum to the Nationals pending a final resolution of the lawsuit. The network also contested the claim that Washington was unable to fully invest in its team’s roster due to the injunction, citing the Nationals’ recent $210 million contract with Max Scherzer as proof that the lawsuit was not hampering the team financially.

Considering that the court was willing to issue a preliminary injunction last August, the odds that the judge will set that ruling aside now to allow the Nationals to collect the full broadcast rights fee authorized by the RSDC are relatively low. However, the court will likely take MASN up on its offer to provide an additional bond to ensure that the extra funds will be available for Washington should the Nationals prevail in the case. In any event, this latest legal maneuvering indicates that the parties are not any closer to a settlement in the case, despite comments by Rob Manfred last week suggesting that the litigation could be resolved in relatively short order.

On both Friday and Saturday, the author published GIFs here documenting footage from collegiate games less notable for the events captured within those GIFs and more notable for the fact that there were baseball events to be captured at all.

What separates the footage below from that recently featured here is that it depicts a potential first-round selection. According to Kiley McDaniel, Illinois left-hander Tyler Jay was a relative unknown entering the summer but pitched in relief for Team USA and exhibited a “93-97 mph [fastball] with above-average to plus curveball and changeup.” He was ranked 42nd overall by McDaniel among draft-eligible prospects.

Here’s an example of Jay’s changeup from this afternoon’s contest between Illinois and Lamar, which pitch he has utilized to strike out Lamar left fielder Kevin Santana.

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Rice University and the University of Texas feature two of college baseball’s most talented teams, according to sources familiar with that particular situation. The two are playing each other this afternoon in Houston, Texas — a game to which, not unlike yesterday’s Villanova-NC State contest, the author has directed his attention mostly to verify that not all the world is blanketed in a crust of frozen terror.

Of some note with regard to this game is Longhorns’ starter Kacy Clemens, issue of the former major leaguer Roger. Also of some note is the home run conceded by Clemens to Rice catcher John Clay Reeves, which unmistakable home run the author has rendered into GIF form below.

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The collegiate baseball season has begun this afternoon, and the first of the day’s televised games — at least among those available by way of streaming video from CBS’s College Sports Live — is Villanova at North Carolina State.

What follows is a GIF from that game’s first inning of NC State starter Cory Wilder throwing a fastball at 93 mph — a pitch notable less for its quality (although that oughtn’t be ignored, as well), but more because of what it represents for our pending emergence from that waking nightmare called winter.

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It’s become a practice of the present author in recent years to purchase — before FanGraphs’ annual spring pilgrimage to the desert — to purchase a new ballcap in February, with a view towards cultivating within my colleagues a combination of jealously and respect that my actual “work” is incapable of producing.

Last year around this time, I documented the search for such a cap in a progressively more absurd series of posts. The result of that search: the acquisition of a Winston-Salem Spirits cap from 1994 with a weird red sun and melancholy eagle on it.

What follows marks the beginning of this year’s search for a replacement.

To wit:

Chicago Cubs Deadstock 90’s Hat Vintage Snapback (Link)
Style: Snapback
Time Left: N/A
Cost: US $24.74 (Buy It Now)

Owing to calendar reform instituted by Julius Caesar, the year 46 BC actually lasted 446 days, roughly a third longer than the Roman years which preceded it. As someone who lived through 1997, I’m surprised to find now that the opposite phenomenon isn’t true — i.e. that all of 1997 wasn’t somehow truncated for logistical purposes. In any case, the year was long enough to allow for the production of this sad ballcap, awaiting an equally sad owner.

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Last week, writing for Just a Bit Outside, managing editor Dave Cameron advanced a proposal — for roughly the fourth time during his tenure at FanGraphs — advanced a proposal for abolishing the draft, which proposal he examined in greater depth during Monday’s edition of the podcast.

Summarized briefly, Cameron suggests that combining a draft and strict bonus-allocation system for amateur talent is essentially redundant. The league doesn’t need the former if it has the latter. And if it has the latter, extending it to international talent becomes rather easy — certainly easier than installing an international draft.

Summarized less briefly, Cameron suggests this:

[W]hat if there was no draft? Instead, what if we just lumped all new players — foreign or domestic — into a single acquisition system where each player was free to sigh with the team of his choice, only with firm spending caps in place to ensure that young talent flows more freely to clubs that can’t compete on major-league payroll alone? In other words, a team’s talent acquisition budget would be inversely tied to its major-league payroll; the more you spend on big leaguers, the less you get to spend on prospects, and vice versa.

Last year, Major League Baseball gave out combined domestic draft and international signing bonus allocations of $285 million, or $9.5 million per team. Instead of distributing the pools based on prior year winning percentage — which rewards failure and incentivizes teams to lose on purpose — the player acquisition budgets could be increased or decreased based on the percentage of deviation from the league average major-league payroll. Last year, the league average payroll was $115 million, so a team that ran a $150 million payroll would have a 30-percent overage, and would in turn have its new talent acquisition pool decreased by 30 percent.

Below is a table featuring each club’s bonus pools for 2015 were Cameron’s proposal employed. The total overall bonus money is the same, but is allocated according not to where each club has finished in the standings, but to the funds they’ve committed to their major-league roster.

Pay denotes 2014 opening-day payroll; O/U, the percentage of that payroll relative to league average; and xPool, the expected bonus pool amount for the relevant club according to their major-league spending.

*Which is to say $0. Either that, or a $0.4 tax for more than slightly doubling the average league payroll.

This information is relevant today also because, with the Padres’ signing of James Shields, the order and projected pools for this year’s amateur draft are now set. Clubs such as Oakland, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay — because of their relative success — are all subject to more restrictive amateur spending limits than their payrolls would otherwise dictate. The Phillies and Yankees, meanwhile, benefit from having played poorly in 2014 despite considerable resources.

The Padres have had a pretty busy offseason, revamping their outfield around three right-handed sluggers in an attempt to bolster the team’s putrid offense. The pitching upgrades have been more muted, mostly limiting themselves to adding the two most similar sounding pitchers in baseball, in signing Brandon Morrow and trading for Brandon Maurer. Now, though, San Diego seems poised to make another big strike, with James Shields and Cole Hamels lingering as the two remaining fish in the pond.

Shields apparently has a strong preference to pitch on the west coast. Hamels is from San Diego and the Padres are not on his no-trade list. With both pitchers, the team has some leverage, as pretty much every other west coast team has publicly removed themselves from signing Shields, and Shields’ remaining availability gives the team an alternative to caving into Ruben Amaro’s demands. It’s not impossible that a team like the Cubs will swoop in to steal Shields, forcing the Padres to negotiate for Hamels without a safety net, but for today at least, it seems like San Diego could probably pick which path they want to go down.

Financially, the two pitchers probably won’t be dramatically different. Hamels is signed for $96 million over the next four years (or $109 million over five), while Shields is probably looking at a four year deal in the $80-$90 million range. Hamels will cost a little bit more in salary, but the difference is going to be minimal, especially if the Phillies are willing to pick up any part of Hamels’ contract in a trade. So, for A.J. Preller and his staff, the question is mostly whether they think the marginal difference in performance is worth surrendering the talent required to acquire Hamels versus forfeiting the draft pick if they signed Shields.

For reference, here are both pitchers numbers over the last three years.

On a per-innings basis, Hamels has been slightly better, though Shields has thrown a few more innings. Hamels is two years younger and hasn’t shown the downwards trends that Shields has displayed the last few years, and his overall career track record is stronger, especially if you evaluate pitchers by runs allowed. By RA9-WAR, Hamels has been roughly +1 WAR better per season than Shields over his career; the gap is closer by FIP-WAR, but Hamels has reached the point in his career where it’s pretty clear that he’s a bit underrated by FIP.

Hamels is likely to perform better than Shields in both 2015 and beyond, but the acquisition cost appears to be significantly higher as well. So, before A.J. Preller makes his choice, I’ll put this out to you guys: which would you pick? Older and slightly worse but retain your minor leaguers, or go for broke with the better pitcher and a diminished farm system?

As of yesterday afternoon, Cuban defector Yoan Moncada has been cleared to sign with a major-league organization. Kiley McDaniel has provided all the relevant information concerning Moncada — including McDaniel’s own best guesses regarding Moncada’s signing bonus and the club most likely to provide it.

The purpose of this post is to harness the wisdom of the crowds with a view towards estimating the probabilities of various outcomes. Use the ballot below to submit answers regarding various aspects of Moncada’s near and slightly less-near future. Note that estimates regarding Moncada’s bonus should not include the 100% tax for which the signing club will be responsible.

The Caribbean Series features the championship clubs from five Latin American leagues: the Dominican Winter, Mexican Pacific, the Roberto Clemente Professional (i.e. Puerto Rican), and Venezuelan Winter — and, as of last year, also the Cuban. This year’s tournament began at Noon ET today (Monday) and extends through Sunday’s championship game.

Telecasts of all the games are available by way of ESPN Deportes and (streaming via) Watch ESPN. For those who lack a subscription to Deportes, however, the Watch ESPN feed is also unavailable. Fortunately, the probably legal stream of CDN Sport Max from the Dominican carries the games, as well, it seems and offers strong video quality.

The champions of Cuba and Mexico are currently playing (box), while Puerto Rico and Venezuela are scheduled for 6:30pm ET this evening. All box scores are available here.