Archive for InstaGraphs

The four Caribbean winter leagues have entered their respective playoff rounds. Below is a (probably incomplete) collection of video feeds for Wednesday’s games. The author will update it haphazardly over the course of the evening. Readers are invited to provide useful links, as well. Games listed in chronological order, with most recent start time on top.

Game: Navegantes at Tiburones (Venezuela)
Start Time: 7:00pm ET
Players of Note: Alcides Escobar
Video / Box

Game: Toros at Gigantes (Dominican)
Start Time: 6:30pm ET
Players of Note: Alen Hanson, Cesar Puello, Jean Segura
Video / Box

Game: Aguilas at Estrellas (Dominican)
Start Time: 6:30pm ET
Players of Note: Robinson Cano, Juan Perez, Manny Ramirez
Video / Box

The Braves housecleaning reportedly continued today, with the team nearing a deal that would ship sometimes-catcher Evan Gattis to Houston in exchange for prospects Mike Foltynewicz, Rio Ruiz, and Andrew Thurman. The quick overview of the players going both directions.

Gattis is a 28 year old with top shelf power, but limited skills beyond that, as he doesn’t control the strike zone particularly well and is somewhat limited defensively; the metrics on him behind the plate are okay, but scouts have long projected him to be a first baseman or designated hitter, and the Braves certainly didn’t see him as a long-term option behind the plate. Best case scenario, he’s probably Mike Napoli with fewer walks, which is a pretty nice player but not quite a star. And with the Astros already having a crowded catching situation, he may end up getting most of his playing time at first base or left field, potentially limiting his value a bit.

Interestingly, both Steamer and ZIPS are down on Gattis, projecting him to be just a slightly above average hitter in 2015, which would make him something more like Mark Trumbo instead of Mike Napoli. That said, Gattis had an unusual career path, and perhaps his age shouldn’t be held against him quite as much as the forecasting systems think; he may be a “young” 28 in terms of baseball development. This is one case where I’d probably be comfortable taking the over on the projected offensive line.

To acquire Gattis, the Astros gave up their #5, #7, and #21 prospects according to Kiley McDaniel’s rankings. Here is what he wrote about the three.

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Not for nothing did Aristotle, in probably his Ethics or something like his Ethics, declare that contemplation is the “highest good” — but that, right after contemplation, brushes with fame were the “second-highest good.”

The editors of and contributors to this site experienced the latter of those goods last night by means of popular sitcom Parks and Recreation. Created in part by Michael Schur, writer emeritus of Fire Joe Morgan, the first episode of that program’s seventh season features a law firm whose name is composed entirely of terms borrowed from baseball’s nerd lexicon — including, but not limited to, FanGraphs WAR (often abbreviated as fWAR).

Just as the woodlands which, in Psalm 29, are stripped bare by the voice of God, the author and his colleagues are stripped bare.

Image stolen entirely sans ruth from Deadspin.

Earlier this week, FanGraphs CEO and founder David Appelman announced that the ballots for the 2015 FAN Projections are now available for the tender ministrations of this site’s readership. With a view to ensuring that all notable players are addressed sufficiently — and also towards producing the number of posts he’s required to publish each week — the present author is highlighting certain players whose ballots are of some particular interest.

Read the rest of this entry »

Multiple winter-league games are underway at the moment. Below is a (probably incomplete) collection of video feeds for same. I’ll update it haphazardly over the course of the evening. Readers are invited to provide information, as well.

Game: Gigantes at Estrellas (Dominican)
Players of Note Robinson Cano, Maikel Franco
Video / Box

Game: Toros at Aguilas (Dominican)
Players of Note Alen Hanson, Cesar Puello, Manny Ramirez
Video / Box

Game: Aragua at Magallanes (Venezuela)
Players of Note Avisail Garcia, Johan Santana, Yangervis Solarte
Video / Box

Contrary to the title of this post, it’s very possible that the reader actually will believe the one feature of the FAN Projections detailed below. In point of fact, nothing of what follows represents much of a threat to credulity.

If the present author has lied, however, it’s only to relate a greater and more urgent truth.

Yesterday, FanGraphs CEO and founder David Appelman announced that the ballots for the 2015 FAN Projections are now open. The FAN projections, if nothing else, serve as an opportunity to examine the bias of the crowd, if not always that same crowd’s wisdom.

What the FAN Projections also allow, however, is for a reader to produce a sort of insta-projection for any player he or she might so choose. Earlier today, for example, I completed ballots for Matt Kemp, Tommy La Stella, and Marcus Semien. In addition to having done my part as an employee of this weblog, what my efforts also produced was a collection of three projections which expressed my personal and probably wrong convictions about Kemp’s and La Stella’s and Semien’s respective upcoming seasons — which projections are accessible merely by clicking the My Rankings button on the FAN Projection screen.

Regard (and click to enlarge):

In theory, a properly motivated individual could produce forecasts for every single baseball player for whom there’s also a player profile at this site.

By clicking here, is how one begins this journey into the marvelous.

Before Christmas, we learned that there were changes coming to the process by which the Major League Baseball Players Association certifies agents. Today, more details surfaced on that issue, which help clarify some of the confusion regarding motivation. Not necessarily in a way that the MLBPA would like.

For one, my sources in the original story disagreed on the subject of fee changes. Turns out, the fees are much larger this year than they were in the past. A $250 fee, due every two years, has now turned into a $1,500 fee due every year. The $500 application fee is now a $2,000 application fee.

The rest lines up with the reporting we had on the issue. There will be more background checks, and now the MLBPA is allowed to hire outside help to perform those background checks. In order to get certified, you not only need a player on a 40-man roster, but now you need to fill out an in-person test.

The fact that fees went up so much is interesting. While you could make a case that the background checks and testing process will make for better agents, the fees are now a roadblock to entry for any independent agent of any quality. These changes, seen in tandem, seem to suggest that the MLBPA is interested in making the way tougher for an independent agent.

It was already tough for them. The main rule — that you have to have a player on the 40-man roster — is easy enough for a corporate agent to hurdle. They can be placed on the agent list for a player that has signed with his agency. The independent agent must cultivate minor league players and hope they get on the 40-man in order for the agent to follow him to the big time.

And now these fee raises. By themselves, they aren’t too honerous, but they do make it harder for a startup agent to join the business. Which was already hard enough, considering the perks that the big corporate agencies can offer their clients.

What isn’t obvious is *why* the MLBPA would prefer to police corporate agencies, unless those agencies do much of the help policing their own ranks.

Perhaps the fee raises do point to another answer, as one source claimed. In their statements, the Tony Clark, head of the MBLPA, said that “This is the first phase in what will be an ongoing effort to improve and modernize our regulatory program and we are confident these changes will serve Players and agents well.” And according to the story, the union also said that “the increase in fees reflects the costs of the background checks and the administration of agents.”

Put those two statements together, and it may be possible that we see a new position at the MLBPA — Agent Czar. All of my sources agreed that enforcement of even the current list of rules was spotty at best, and so maybe a czar is needed. Apparently, it’ll be one that the agents pay for.

Yesterday, FanGraphs CEO and founder David Appelman announced that the ballots for the 2015 FAN Projections are now available for the tender ministrations of this site’s readership. With a view to ensuring that all notable players are addressed sufficiently — and also towards producing the number of posts he’s required to publish each week — the present author is highlighting certain players whose ballots are of some particular interest.

Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier today, FanGraphs CEO and founder David Appelman announced that the ballots for the 2015 FAN Projections are now available for the tender ministrations of this site’s readership. With a view to ensuring that all notable players are addressed sufficiently — and also towards producing the number of posts he’s required to publish each week — the present author is highlighting certain players whose ballots are of some particular interest.

Read the rest of this entry »

Full trade, as first reported by @susanslusser: Zobrist and Y. Escobar to #Athletics for Jaso, SS Daniel Robertson and OF Boog Powell.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 10, 2015

Because this deal was reported in its entirety only, like, six minutes ago, the purpose of this post is less to examine Saturday’s trade between Oakland and Tampa Bay with any great depth and more just to announce that it has, in fact, happened.

Below are the details with each player’s projected WAR total for 2015 (prorated to 600 plate appearances), plus both the number of years and dollars remaining on the relevant player’s respective contract.

Oakland receives:

Yunel Escobar — 1.9 WAR600 / 2 years / $13 million
Ben Zobrist — 3.8 WAR600 / 1 year / $7.5 million

Tampa Bay receives:

John Jaso — 1.4 WAR600 / 1 year / $3.3 million*
Boog Powell — -0.7 WAR600 / 6 years / Min x 3, Arb x 3
Daniel Robertson — 0.2 WAR600 / 6 years / Min x 3, Arb x 3

*Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salary for 2015.

What’s apparent, first of all, is that the A’s have likely improved the 2015 edition of their club. Escobar and Zobrist would seemingly replace Marcus Semien and Eric Sogard at shortstop and second base, respectively. Semien and (maybe also) Sogard, meanwhile, replace whomever was likely to occupy the utility position. Steamer’s projection for Semien is actually quite optimistic (2.3 WAR), although there are reasonable questions to be asked of Semien’s defensive competence at shortstop. Now the latter can occupy a super utility-type role, minimizing the effect of ineffectiveness or injury. Zobrist, meanwhile, is roughly a two-win improvement over Sogard, and will likely spend some time in the outfield as well, giving the team necessary depth in left field that was lacking. Overall, the difference is probably about two or three wins, give or take, for roughly $10 million of extra payroll commitment in 2015.

With regard to the Rays, they will also feature a new middle infield in 2015. At the end of December, Jeff Sullivan considered the point of Asdrubal Cabrera as a free-agent acquisition for Tampa Bay. Mostly the point was: now the Rays can trade Escobar and/or Zobrist. Some combination of Cabrera and Nick Franklin are likely to play some combination of second base and shortstop. Neither have a great reputation at the latter, but both have played it before and are likely not to embarrass themselves or their families. Overall they probably concede about 1.5 or 2.0 wins to the combination of Escobar and Zobrist — again, mostly just because Zobrist is so good.

With regard to the prospects, Robertson (who enters his age-21 season) has exhibited an advanced offensive approach with non-negligible power. He’s played almost exclusively at shortstop as a minor leaguer, but might ultimately lack the range and agility to do so at an average major-league level. Powell, meanwhile, lacks nearly all of the tools, but has exhibited fantastic plate discipline at the minor-league level and can play an adequate center field, most likely. Robertson and Powell are projected to produce 3.4 WAR and 2.5 WAR, respectively, through their age-28 seasons, according to Chris Mitchell’s KATOH methodology.