The numbers suggest the Royals are slight favorites. Vegas suggests that the Royals are slight favorites. What do FanGraphs readers think, though? Let’s find out.
We’ll run this poll again tomorrow and see how much the outcome of the first game affects our view of what we think is going to happen over the next week.
The great thing about plate discipline statistics is that they’re relatively easy to understand, but the bad news is that there are so many variations and it can be hard to keep them perfectly straight. Fear not, we’ve expanded out Library entry on plate discipline stats to combat this problem.
The entry includes more specifics about all of the numerators and denominators and provides some more detail about how to interpret the data and the differences between our two sets of plate discipline data.
As always, feel free to ask questions in the comments section here, find me on Twitter @NeilWeinberg44, or stop by our weekly chat designed for this type of inquiry, Wednesdays at 3pm eastern.
From the Catcher’s POV
As both Dave Cameron and Mike Petriello have noted earlier today in different ways, the Royals bullpen has contributed substantially to the club’s successful — and largely unimpeded — run through the 2014 postseason. In their victory over Baltimore on Wednesday, for example, the triumvirate of Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, and Greg Holland combined for 3.2 scoreless innings. As noted by Cameron, that same threesome accounted for over 40% of the innings thrown by Royals pitchers during the Championship Series.
Herrera accounted for 1.2 of those innings on Wednesday, and he finished his outing in a notable way, first by means of this 1-1 pitch to Caleb Joseph:
Back in March, MLB Advanced Media announced a new project aimed to create the tracking data of our dreams. Instead of just measuring the velocity of a pitch or the exit speed of the ball on contact, this new system — eventually named Statcast — would track the full flight of the ball, the distance covered by fielders, the acceleration and top speed of the baserunners, and just about everything else we could want to know.
And then, for months, there was basically no news. MLB had originally said they were going to treat 2014 as a beta-testing year, giving the 30 teams access to the information to help iron out the wrinkles before the system was fully rolled out in 2015. Only the teams weren’t given any data to beta test. The system was teased in things like this video of Jason Heyward’s catch, but beyond proof-of-concept highlights, Statcast wasn’t that much more real than the mythical FIELDF/x system that had been talked about for years.
Well, that appears to be changing. Last week, MLB opened a @StatCast Twitter account, and after installing the system in all four parks hosting LCS games, they’ve been flooding the market with new examples of the system’s capabilities. We got five videos from just last night’s Orioles-Royals game, for instance, from measuring Lorenzo Cain‘s range in the outfield to Jarrod Dyson’s speed on the bases. They added four more videos from the Giants-Cardinals game, giving us examples of Statcast data from just yesterday.
Additionally, I’ve been told that teams have now received a small sample of the regular season data, and so while MLB might not have been able to beta-test nightly feeds during the season, the system does appear to be closer than ever to going live. And for those who prefer spreadsheets to videos, Daniel Brim has even collected the data from the videos released by MLB, and is updating a Google Doc with the information, which you can find here.
Likely due to the licensing agreements in place with Sportvision and the fact that MLB teams have paid for the rights to access HITF/x data, we haven’t seen the full capability of what Statcast could do on any one play, as MLB has focused mostly on just running and fielding. We don’t know how the league is going to go forward with the F/x data systems, or what is going to be made public and what is not. But given the amount of information that MLB has made available over the last week, it seems more likely than ever that Statcast could be a legitimate public utility, and it’s potential might be realized in the not too distant future.
During yesterday’s edition of FanGraphs Audio, the present author and Dave Cameron began a meandering and ultimately conclusion-less inquiry into the amount of actual, physical baseballs used during the course of a typical nine-inning game, with estimates ranging from around 50 to, according to Cameron, “hundreds.”
Below are three answers, aggregated with little effort from the internet and according to credible sources.
“[A]n average of seven dozen baseballs per game.”
Source: Steve Vucinich, Oakland Athletics Equipment Manager
“[T]he average nine-inning game requires nine dozen baseballs.”
Source: Jake Efta, Progressive Field Umpires Attendant
“[A]n average of eight to 10 dozen baseballs are used each game.”
Source: Tim Burke, Minnesota Twins Assistant Equipment Manager
The conclusion: somewhere between 90 and 120 balls per game, probably, making the average lifespan of a baseball about 2.5 to 3.0 pitches.
Credit to reader Ben Hall, who endeavored to supply actual facts to this conversation.
In Sunday’s NLCS Game 2, the Cardinals had to replace an injured Yadier Molina with a bad Tony Cruz, and while the Cardinals went on to still win the game in dramatic fashion, oblique injuries are a real problem, which means Molina will at least be compromised if he’s even able to play, and that’s awful news for St. Louis. Now, about Molina vs. Cruz — below, please find a mostly pointless comparative exercise, focusing on Trevor Rosenthal’s ninth inning.
Before Kolten Wong was the hero, Rosenthal looked like the goat. Tasked with preserving a one-run lead, Rosenthal gave up a single, then a single, and then he threw a wild pitch on a walk that allowed a runner to score all the way from second base. This is that full-count wild pitch:
There exists a line of thought that, had Yadier Molina still been catching, that pitch wouldn’t have gotten away. By the numbers we’ve got, relative to Cruz, Molina is the far superior pitch-blocker, which shouldn’t come as a surprise since Molina is terrific across the board. I agree that Molina is better than Cruz at this, but to be honest I think this might’ve gotten away from anybody. The pitch was 99 miles per hour, and it bounced, and Rosenthal had never before in the major leagues thrown a fastball so low. This pitch was almost destined for the backstop. Maybe with Molina, the runner doesn’t actually score, but that’s a tough block for anyone.
Let’s rewind to mere moments earlier. You want to compare Molina to Cruz? Here is Joe Panik’s plate appearance:
The closest ball was the third ball, and here’s what that looked like:
Cruz stabbed, and dropped his head, and flinched his right arm. Catching a borderline two-strike fastball, Cruz did the opposite of limit his movement, and you figure that contributed to the pitch being called a ball. Now, when the count is 0-and-2, we know that the called strike zone shrinks. Umpires don’t like to call three-pitch strikeouts. But, Molina is a better receiver than Cruz. We know that generally, and we know that specifically.
This year, on fastballs over the plate and between 1.5 – 2 feet off the ground, Molina got 80% called strikes, and Cruz got 66%. Over the past three years, the difference is 81% vs. 70%. And Cruz, yesterday, showed unusually poor technique, and Molina probably would’ve done a better job.
Baseball Prospectus also allows us to evaluate framing data by battery. Since Rosenthal debuted, Cruz has caught him with 252 framing opportunities, and he’s come in about nine strikes below expected. Molina, meanwhile, has caught him with 1,099 framing opportunities, and he’s come in about 16 strikes above expected. So, Molina receives better than Cruz, and Molina receives Trevor Rosenthal better than Cruz.
Which is all to say, had it been Yadier Molina catching there instead of Tony Cruz, maybe there’s no wild pitch, but even before that, maybe Panik gets called out and Rosenthal gets the save and the game ends. Rosenthal threw a good 0-and-2 pitch. Cruz just didn’t make a good 0-and-2 catch. You see that the next two pitches, also, were close, so they also provided framing opportunities and Cruz couldn’t sell well enough.
Of course, had Molina not been removed for Cruz, everything could’ve happened very differently. The Giants, at least, would’ve had different plate appearances, and Panik wouldn’t have been in the exact same situation. So that’s why this is a mostly pointless exercise.
But I guess the general point is valid: Yadier Molina sure is a hell of a lot better than Tony Cruz in every possible area. You knew that before yesterday. You knew that before you even knew who Tony Cruz was.
The independent Atlantic League’s season ended about a week ago now, the Lancaster (PA) Barnstormers defeating the Sugar Land (TX) Skeeters 3-0 in a best-of-five series. The Atlantic League is notable probably for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that it serves as a perpetual reminder that most ballplayers — who are human beings with self-doubt and expenses — do not ascend seamlessly through affiliated baseball and then onto a major-league roster. Indeed, many of the names in the Atlantic League are familiar ones — and belong to players who’re talented enough to have toiled in something slightly less than obscurity.
With a view to acquainting all of our selves more intimately with this year’s edition of the Atlantic League, what I’ve done is to produce below two leaderboards featuring this year’s top hitters and pitchers — accompanied by notes concerning same. (All data courtesy Pointstreak.)
The clubs in the APBL (and their relevant abbreviations) are as follows: Bridgeport Bluefish (BPT), Camden Riversharks (CMD), Lancaster Barnstormers (LAN), Long Island Ducks (LI), Somerset Patriots (SOM), Southern Maryland Blue Crabs (SMD), Sugar Land Skeeters (SL), and York Revolution (YRK).
The ALCS is supposed to kick off in Baltimore tonight, but there’s a slight problem; meteorologists in the area are calling for a 100% chance of rain this evening. From the Baltimore Sun’s story on the weather:
The 100 percent rain chance forecast “doesn’t mean it’ll be raining the entire time, but there will be showers in the area,” said Greg Schoor, another weather service meteorologist. Schoor said he expects light to moderate rain — “just enough to wet the ground kind of rain”, he said.
But there is also a chance bands of more moderate to heavy rain could pass through, he said. It’s impossible to predict where those might be.
Along with the rain, winds and air temperatures are forecast to be cold. Highs could just barely crack the 60-degree mark in the afternoon, with temperatures down in the 50s by game time and a cold northeast wind, Schoor said.
It seems to not even be a question of whether tonight’s game will be cold and wet; the question instead seems to be how cold, how wet, and how long will they be able to play. Game time is 8:00 pm eastern, with “steady rain” predicted from 10 pm to 2 am. Given the pace of MLB postseason games — the Orioles three division series games against Detroit each took almost exactly 3 hours and 42 minutes, while the Royals three games averaged 3 hours and 51 minutes — this game won’t end much before midnight, which means the last few hours could be either be played in a significant rain or might not be played at all.
So, this brings up a question for the managers: do you risk throwing your best starter in a game that seems likely to have some kind of delay? This is especially important to the Royals, who have a significant gap between their #1 starter and the rest of their rotation, and could be at a disadvantage if James Shields is forced out after just three or four innings tonight.
If ever there was a night to lead off with your relievers, and then go to your starter afterwards, this might be the night. It’s almost certainly too radical for Ned Yost to do, but if we think there’s a strong chance at a rain delay this evening, leading with Frasor-Finnegan-Herrera-Davis for the first few hours, then letting Shields go through his normal warm-up while the tarp is on the field, might be the best chance at getting 18 outs from him tonight.
Of course, meteorology isn’t an exact science either, and there might not end up being a delay at all. Best guess is both teams play it straight hope for the best, and if so, tonight’s game could really become a battle of the bullpens.
It’s not the most glamorous update to the FanGraphs Library, but we’re not really a flashy establishment. Today the entry on strikeout and walk rate (K% and BB%) for hitters got an update.
If you’re a seasoned sabermetric veteran, this probably isn’t going to provide a lot of new information, but the Library is meant to flatten the cost of acquiring information for everyone and there are plenty of new readers every week who might not know the basic rules of thumb associated with some of the more common stats. It’s not hard to guess what BB% means in a basic sense, but understanding how to use it to infer something about a player’s approach is important.
So if you’re new to site and have questions about K% and BB%, feel free to ask them in the comments. And as always, if you have sabermetric or FanGraphs related questions, get in touch on Twitter @NeilWeinberg44 or stop by out weekly chats designed to answer these types of questions at 3pm eastern on Wednesdays.
Tonight marks the first collection of games of the Venezuelan Winter League season — which league typically features a number of young and promising Latin players plus also Bobby Abreu. A brief inspection of the various club websites reveals at least one live video for a game — in this case, between Tigres de Aragua and Leones del Caracas. The former club’s lineup features Oakland prospect Renato Nunez; the latter, Houston’s Danry Vasquez.
A box score of the game is available here.
The feed is here.
Mike Hessman just batted.
