Yes, it’s true. We’re less than 48 hours away from the FanGraphs Boston Meetup. For all of the original details, which are still true, read this post here. Or read the pertinent info here, if you’re lazy like Cistulli:

Sometimes, we nerds like to go out on the town. One of those times is the weekend of the Saber Seminar, which is one of the best events (if not the best) on the yearly sabermetric and/or sabermatic calendar. This year’s Saber Seminar is August 16-17. So, just as we did last year, we’re once again going to set up shop at The Mead Hall in Cambridge the night before Saber Seminar, on Friday, August 15th!

It promises to be a good time. Since the posting, other luminaries of the Boston media market have pledged their attendance, but since I A) won’t remember all of them and B) want to protect their identities, you’ll just have to take my word on that. Beer, baseball, and baseball nerds. It’s a combination just crazy enough to work. Join us, won’t you?

Right-handed Detroit prospect Buck Farmer, making his major-league debut shortly after making his Double-A debut, has just completed his first inning of work. With a view to edutaining the public and also securing internet clicks, the author presents footage below of Farmer’s secondary pitches.

First, his slider, to Pittsburgh’s Russell Martin:

And second, probably his changeup at 83 mph, to strike out Martin:

Chris Carter, as of this writing, has hit 28 home runs this season. That’s more than Mike Trout, Josh Donaldson, David Ortiz and Jose Bautista. Only Nelson Cruz, Jose Abreu, and Giancarlo Stanton have more. Carter has always had a power stroke, so perhaps this isn’t a great surprise. But he’s only one dinger off his career high, and has been gathering them in bunches as of late. In fact, since the calendar flipped to July, Carter has been a (literal) man (metaphorically) on fire.

In July, Carter hit .289 with 8 homers and a .361 ISO. His 176 wRC+ was good enough for ninth among qualified batters that month. So far in August, he leads all batters in wRC+ with a bonkers 261. He’s collected 15 home runs in the last two months and the second month isn’t even half over. When a hitter who historically hits for a poor average suddenly stops doing that, it’s fair to assume that a good deal of it could be luck-dependent, but that isn’t the case here. While his August BABIP is certainly inflated, he wasn’t really that lucky in July. A .314 BABIP is a little above league average, but not terribly so and is actually on par with his 2013.

This can stem from two things — one quantifiable, the second less so. The first factor is that Carter is chasing less as of late. Here’s a heat map of all his swings, courtesy of baseballsavant.com:

There are still a few bad swings on the right, but there’s a discernable lack of flails at outside pitches. The Frisbee sliders are still getting swung at, but the borderline pitches on the outside are being left alone. On the season, he’s still swinging at more outside pitches than in 2013, but his recent approach seems to be helping him.

There has also been talk on Astros broadcasts about a swing tweak that Carter has been working on. Namely, that he’s trying to shorten his stroke. Carter is a big huge enormous man with long arms, and he gives it his all on most swings. While he’s certainly not turning into a slap hitter, a shorter stroke might be helping his contact a bit. Here are two home run swings — the first from 2013, the second from just a few days ago.

The camera angles add some difficulty, but the bat doesn’t seem wrapped around his head as much in the latter GIF, and it appears as if his full-arm extension comes a little later, as well. This could be part of what’s patching the holes in his swing.

According to BaseballSavant, Carter is seeing the same amount of pitches in the zone (36%) in his recent tear as he has all season. Whether it’s through an improved swing, or an improved plate discipline that is leading to better pitches, Chris Carter is showing glimpses of what a man his size looks like he should be doing. He should still have a few good years left in him, and if he really has turned a bit of a corner, he could be a contributing piece of a team looking to make their push at relevancy in the next few years.

You knew what this was as soon as you saw it. The conversation’s popping back up again, and lots of people are weighing in, but I don’t think I’ve ever actually seen a reader poll on the topic. So here is a reader poll on the topic, for our collective edification.

Last night, Justin Verlander lasted one inning, gave up five runs, and left the game with “right shoulder soreness”. After the game, Verlander admitted that this had “been lingering for a little while”, which shouldn’t come as a huge surprise, given that Eno Sarris postulated that Verlander might be pitching through an injury a few weeks ago.

And while average fastball velocity certainly isn’t the only way to tell if a pitcher is pitching through a health problem, the game by game chart from BrooksBaseball.com does make it seem like perhaps this became a more serious problem in mid-June.

On June 21st against the Indians, Verlander threw 51 fastballs with an average velocity of 95.1 mph. On the 26th, facing the Astros, his average fastball was just 93.5 mph. Against the A’s on July 2nd, he averaged 92.4 mph. And then, finally, he bottomed out against the Dodgers on July 8th, sitting at just 92.1 mph. Over the course of four starts, he lost three miles per hour on his fastball.

He got back into the 93 range over his last few starts, but is still well below where he was earlier in the year. And as Eno noted, his release point has been less consistent, and he’s throwing fewer pitches in the strike zone. Maybe the MRI will show that he just needs some rest and there’s no structural damage, but historically, these variables have done fairly well at identifying injured pitchers. And so the Tigers should probably not plan on having the old Justin Verlander back any time soon.

The Royals are rolling, and when I wrote about them Monday morning, I made sure to highlight their outfield defense, which is probably the team’s greatest strength. But even bad teams have their own greatest strengths, and there’s another reason why the Royals currently find themselves in a playoff position. It’s definitely not the only reason, but it’s a tough thing to ignore.

This is the glossary page for the FanGraphs Clutch statistic. You can think of it as a measure of timeliness, and it does a hell of a job of explaining some of the things that have happened in the past. Now here’s a table of the top- and bottom-five teams of 2014, in terms of overall Clutch:

The good news for the teams on the left: what’s happened has happened. The bad news: this isn’t really the kind of thing that’s predictive, at least not to this extent. Clutch gets regressed extremely heavily to the mean, no matter how many times one tries to argue it doesn’t. The bullpen certainly plays a part, but it’s not like bullpens are all that reliable, either.

A fun fact for you: the Royals are 63-53, while the Cubs are 50-66. Yet, their respective BaseRuns records are 56-60 and 57-59. In real life, the Royals might go to the playoffs, and the Cubs are looking ahead to 2015. In an alternative life that strips out sequencing, they’re just a couple of mediocre teams trying not to fall asleep for the final six weeks. What I’m absolutely not saying is that the Cubs have played as well as the Royals. They haven’t! The Royals have been clutch, and the Cubs have been unclutch. But the teams probably aren’t as different as they look in the standings. Good sequencing is a positive, but it’s also not really a skill.

You might be wondering: which has been the most clutch team of all time? I don’t know, but I can tell you the most clutch team since 1974. It’s the 2008 Angels, who finished 100-62 with a Pythagorean record of 88-74. Their clutch score: 14.9. They had an overall .743 OPS, and an .808 OPS in high-leverage situations. They allowed an overall .729 OPS, and a .649 OPS in high-leverage situations. The least-clutch teams: the 1984 Phillies and the 2001 Rockies, at -12.7. Neither the Royals nor the Cubs are on an all-time pace, but boy can sequencing ever make good math look bad. Nothing has an effect on win/loss records quite like choosing one’s moments.

Over on the main blog, we’ve just published an introduction from Kiley McDaniel, who is the newest member of the FanGraphs team. Though he’s not entirely new; Kiley previously wrote for FanGraphs a few years ago before taking on a full-time job as the prospect writer for Scout.com. Today, though, Kiley returns to FanGraphs to head up our prospect coverage, and we’re excited to have him back in the fold. Additionally, Kiley has enlisted the help of some friends, and together, they’ll be covering the minor leagues — and amateur levels, to a lesser degree — in a different way than we have previously.

Kiley’s experience working for the Yankees, Orioles, and Pirates has given him some valuable experience into the inner-workings of MLB decision making processes, and he’s previously covered prospects for both ESPN and Scout, in addition to his earlier stint at FanGraphs. We think you’re going to like what he has to offer, and some of the new projects that he’ll be leading the charge on. While there are certainly many others doing great work in bringing interesting coverage of minor leaguers, we want to cover prospects in a way that aligns with what you’ve come to expect from FanGraphs, and Kiley’s got some great things in store for those of you who really like the prospect side of the game.

I’d be remiss to not mention the yeoman’s work that Marc Hulet has put in here over the last few years, heading up the offseason prospect lists and putting in a remarkable amount of work every offseason. Marc’s begun contributing more regularly to RotoGraphs, and you will still find his write-ups on minor leaguers published there on a regular basis, but we are extremely thankful to Marc for the years of work he put in covering prospects for us.

We’re excited to have Kiley and his crew on board, and you can look forward to a flood of new prospect coverage coming to FanGraphs in the coming weeks.

A federal judge in New York ruled on Friday that Major League Baseball will face trial for violations of federal antitrust laws by stemming the exclusive broadcast territories for each of its 30 teams. Several regional sports networks and cable and satellite companies that benefit from the exclusive territories will also face trial on antitrust charges.

Consumers who purchased Extra Innings and MLB.tv sued MLB, the RSNs, and cable and satellite companies in 2012 claiming that the league’s exclusive broadcast territories resulted in fewer options and higher prices. The court’s order — issued late in the day on Friday — came in response to motions for summary judgment by MLB, the RSNs, and the cable and satellite companies. Federal court procedures permit defendants to use such motions to argue that the key facts in the case are undisputed and defeat the plaintiffs claims as a matter of law.

In its motion, MLB argued first that baseball’s antitrust exemption precluded claims based on the exclusive broadcast territories. But even if the exemption does not apply, MLB claimed, the exclusive TV territories are pro-competitive in that they lead to cooperation between the home and visiting teams, and strong regional broadcasts across the league. The RSNs and cable and satellite companies argued that they were, in essence, innocent bystanders to MLB’s exclusive territories and, therefore, can’t be liable under the antitrust laws. My previous posts explaining the lawsuit and the defendants’ motions for summary judgment can be read here and here.

In her order denying summary judgment for the defendants, Judge Shira Scheindlin ruled that baseball’s antitrust exemption does not preclude claims challenging the league’s exclusive broadcast territories. She then held that the consumer plaintiffs had submitted credible evidence — in the form of sworn testimony from economic experts — showing that the demolition of the exclusive broadcast territories would lead to more broadcast choices and lower prices. This evidence was sufficient to preclude summary judgment for MLB. As for the RSNs and cable and satellite companies, the court found evidence that they were not innocent bystanders but had, in fact, taken steps to ensure that the exclusive broadcast territories remained in place.

You can read a copy of the court’s 57-page decision here.

Even with this court decision, MLB’s exclusive broadcast territories will remain in place for some time. The court will hold a conference later this month at which she’ll likely set pre-trial deadlines and a trial date. At trial, the consumer plaintiffs will bear the burden of proving that the exclusive broadcast territories are unreasonable restraints on competition. A trial could last weeks and will inevitably be followed by more motions and an appeal.

The risks are high for MLB and its broadcast partners. A verdict in favor of the plaintiffs, if upheld on appeal, would upend the rights fee agreements of all 30 teams, the streaming rights that give rise to Extra Innings and MLB.tv, and the national TV contracts — deals which result in hundreds of millions of dollars flowing to MLB and its teams every year. With those kinds of risks, parties will often do what they can to avoid trial.

Stay tuned.

According to Keith Law, the Cubs have acquired Jacob Turner from the Marlins for “a couple of minor leaguers”. Turner was a pretty high profile prospect a few years ago, is just 23, and this acquisition falls in line with the Cubs buying low on young pitching and seeing what sticks. Assuming the two minor leaguers have minimal value, this is probably a decent enough move by the Cubs, because young arms sometimes turn into Jake Arrieta.

But before we throw the Cubs a parade for acquiring Turner, let’s maybe point out something of importance: the current version of Jacob Turner does not belong in a Major League rotation, and barring some dramatic improvement from either his change-up or his curveball, he profiles best as a middle reliever.

Since the start of the 2011 season, 149 pitchers have thrown at least 100 innings against left-handed batters. By K%-BB%, Turner ranks 147th. Here are his peers in controlling the strike zone against lefties.

Marquis is a replacement level scrub at the end of his career. Mendoza is a swing guy who makes spot starts when someone is hurt. Westbrook is out of baseball. The only guy in this mix who has had any real value of late is Chacin, who has succeed by limiting BABIP and HR/FB ratio while pitching in Colorado. Turner hasn’t shown the same ability to limit hard contact, and his results have actually been worse than his also-bad peripherals.

Yes, Turner is 23, and yes, there’s plenty of time for him to live up to the promise he showed as a minor leaguer. Maybe the change-up will get better and he’ll have a real weapon against left-handers someday. He doesn’t right now, though, and until he does, he’s going to project as a reliever, and not even the kind of reliever you can trust with full-inning, high-leverage appearances.

Last week, we reported on the ongoing bankruptcy saga involving Comcast SportsNet Houston, the joint venture created and owned by Comcast Sports Group, the Houston Astros and the Houston Rockets. More than a year after its launch, CSN Houston hadn’t reached carriage fee deals with any cable or satellite company in the Houston area, other than Comcast. That led to financial distress and to an involuntary bankruptcy petition filed by Comcast last fall.

Last night, AT&T and DirecTV filed a plan with the bankruptcy court to assume control over CSN Houston. As part of the reorganization plan, AT&T and DirecTV will create a new limited liability company with 1,000 shares — 40 percent owned by AT&T and 60 percent owned by DirecTV. The Astros and Rockets back this plan, despite giving up their ownership interests in the regional sports network.

If the bankruptcy court approves this plan, the new RSN (likely to be branded a ROOT Sports Network like other DirecTV owned sports networks) will negotiate new rights fee agreements with the Astros and the Rockets. Under the CSN Houston agreement, the Astros were scheduled to receive $60 million annually.