If you are particularly sharp-eyed, you may have noticed the soft launch of the ZiPS postseason game-by-game projections on Monday afternoon.

These projections, along with the stretch run projections, differ from the in-season projections in a few important ways. Where projections are generally geared more towards the macro picture, when we get to this point of a season and have an idea of who is pitching and who is not, we can shift to more micro-level projections that reflect the very different ways players are used during the playoffs. The ZiPS game matchup tool has a built-in lineup estimator that projects every pitcher and batter’s line against every other pitcher and batter, so there is no need to look at a team’s generalized offensive strength. We also use what I call “full-fat ZiPS” rather than the simpler in-season model; the latter is necessary given the realities of having daily updates, but isn’t here. For some players and teams, this makes a difference. For instance, with all of the Statcast and similar data being utilized, ZiPS likes the Giants more than it would using the in-season version. Read the rest of this entry »

Join me and Kevin Goldstein today at 2:30 PM PT/5:30 PM ET for our latest Prospect Film Session in which we screen, discuss, and analyze my recently-shot prospect video live on the FanGraphs Twitch channel. This episode, we’ll be analyzing footage from the first two weeks of Instructional League ball in Arizona.

We’ll check in on a number of very famous prospects and also study some guys who viewers will be wholly unfamiliar with, emerging from the obscurity of the desert backfields. The show can be found live on the FanGraphs homepage as well as on Twitch. Fill your baseball-less void with prospect discussion before the playoffs begin in this quiet, lo-fi stream with a focus on largely unedited footage like this. Read the rest of this entry »

Position: Junior Analyst, Baseball Operations

Summary:
The Baseball Operations team of the Los Angeles Dodgers is responsible for supporting the Major League Coaching Staff and Baseball Operations leadership group with data and information needed for strategic decision making. As a Junior Analyst, you will work with other members of the Baseball Operations team to build reports and visualizations to communicate insights clearly and concisely to stakeholders. This position offers the opportunity to push the boundaries of conventional thinking, grow analytically by solving challenging problems, and collaborate with some of the best baseball minds in the sport. As a member of the Baseball Operations team, you will see your work impact the Major League team on a nightly basis.

Job Functions:

• Develop and deliver reports to the Major League Coaching Staff and Baseball Operations leadership group in a timely manner
• Build new tools and improve existing ones, to optimize workflows and quality of information
• Perform ad-hoc research as requested, summarizing key findings
• Utilize statistical tools and metrics to analyze the Dodgers and upcoming opponents
• Perform other related duties as assigned

Basic Requirements/Qualifications:

• High school diploma, GED or equivalent
• Experience using R to wrangle and visualize data
• Familiarity with SQL and Git
• Knowledge of sabermetric research and principles
• Ability to work a varied schedule including evenings, weekends, and holidays
• Bachelor’s degree in a STEM field preferred
• Passion for a field outside of analytics that could be applicable to baseball (web or app development, design, or physics, to name a few) preferred

To Apply:
To apply, please use this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Quick Sunday update. The Yankees lost on Saturday, furthering the potential for chaos, and the four-way tie is an increased possibility, at 6.5%. The chances of bonus baseball overall now stand at 57.6%. Good news for us and good news for the Rays, who will play one of these four teams later this week. It’s not something that’s captured in projections, but it’s interesting that if the Rays go full B-team, it reduces the chances of a tie, and as a result, a slight reprieve for the team they eventually play. Jameson Taillon is back in as the starter and Joan Adon looks to be Washington’s starter, which is to Boston’s benefit according to the projections.

The NL West remains unresolved, but simple: if the Dodgers win and the Giants lose, they play a tiebreak game. ZiPS has a 19.8% chance of a tiebreaker game, with the overall division as San Franciso 90.0%, Los Angeles 10.0%. Freddy Peralta is being held back for the playoffs with Brett Anderson going today. It makes sense too; it’s in Milwaukee’s interest to leave one of these teams more susceptible to getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Cardinals later this week.

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Below you’ll find today’s ZiPS stretch run update. For details on just what’s going on here, please refer to my original article describing all these mathnanigans.

American League Wild Card

The Yankees and their bats were largely quiet against the Rays on Friday, but they still basically control their own destiny as the team in the first Wild Card spot, albeit the one with by far the toughest opposition. The Blue Jays fended off a late-inning Baltimore rally and held on to the win, but the Red Sox winning was just as damaging to Toronto’s playoff hopes as the Jays’ win was helpful. Toronto’s still one-in-five to make the postseason, but needs some help now; since the Blue Jays are already assumed to be strongly favored to beat the Orioles, they get an even larger boost from a Nationals win. Read the rest of this entry »

Below you’ll find today’s ZiPS stretch run update. For details on just what’s going on here, please refer to my original article describing all these mathnanigans.

American League Wild Card

The Yankees have now reached the point where a win nearly clinches a playoff spot, though it doesn’t make one a mathematical certainty. With one more win, the Mariners and the Red Sox would both have to sweep their weekend series and the Yankees would have to lose out in the tiebreaker in order for New York to miss the playoffs. Similar to our probables grid, I’ve tentatively put in a short outing for Luis Severino on Sunday. The Yankees have been mum about their starter plans for that game, and as the team most likely to cement the top Wild Card spot before Sunday, they could also go total slop time so that they have as much strength as possible before next Tuesday’s play-in. Read the rest of this entry »

Please note, this posting contains two positions.

Title: Software Engineer

Reports to: Director, Baseball Research & Development
Status: Full Time

Position Overview:
The work of a Software Engineer (SWE) at the Phillies extends well beyond merely coding. As a SWE you contribute fresh ideas in a variety of areas, including information retrieval, networking and data storage, security, machine learning, natural language processing, UI design and mobile to shape the evolution of the Phillies baseball analytics systems. You are not necessarily an expert or even familiar with all of these areas but you do have a growth mindset and a passion for learning from and sharing your knowledge with your colleagues.

The Phillies’ ideal engineers will have a versatile skill set, be enthusiastic to handle new challenges and demonstrate leadership qualities. You will work closely with end-users across Scouting, Player Development and the Major League Coaching Staff while building software tools from the ground up. By identifying appropriate design specifications through collaboration with those end-users, you will build applications that conform to user needs.

Specific areas of focus may include, but are not limited to, the draft, free-agency, player valuation, player development, in-game strategy, and injury prevention. As a SWE you will have the opportunity to use your technical expertise to create software solutions that impact decision-making at the Phillies. Read the rest of this entry »

Please note, this posting contains two positions.

Title: Quantitative Analyst

Reports to: Director, Baseball Research & Development
Status: Regular Full-Time

Position Overview:
As a Quantitative Analyst (QA), you help shape The Phillies Baseball Operations strategies by processing, analyzing, and interpreting large and complex data. You do more than just crunch the numbers; you carefully plan the design of your own studies by asking and answering the right questions, while also working collaboratively with other analysts and software engineers on larger projects.

Read the rest of this entry »

Below you’ll find today’s ZiPS stretch run update. For details on just what’s going on here, please refer to my original article describing all these mathnanigans.

American League Wild Card

Seattle beat Oakland on Wednesday, sweeping the series and knocking the A’s out of playoff contention. As such, Oakland is no longer a participant in these charts. The Blue Jays won the second game of their series against the Yankees, preventing them from falling to fourth in the playoff probabilities, behind the Mariners. We’ll be a lot closer to knowing who makes the playoffs in the AL after tonight’s games, as those contests — the last contender vs. contender matchup, as well as the biggest creampuff game for a contender — are the two highest leverage games remaining. Read the rest of this entry »

Please note, this posting contains two positions.

Position: R&D Analyst (Trainee and Full-Time)

The R&D Analyst position will assist Baseball Operations decision-making through the analysis and research of baseball information. The day-to-day responsibilities of this position will revolve around using data analysis to provide insight into player evaluation, performance projection, roster construction, and all other facets of baseball operations decision making, with an emphasis on different areas of baseball operations depending on the baseball calendar and needs of the department. Ideal candidates will have a strong, demonstrated ability to answer wide-ranging research questions using data-driven methods. The position will report to Assistant General Manager, Research and Development.

Note: Applicants for full-time, full-season trainee, and summer intern (May-August) will be considered.

Responsibilities

• Perform advanced statistical analysis on large datasets in order to assist in the decision making of the Baseball Operations department
• Develop and maintain models, software, reports, or any other information system developed during research
• Perform ad-hoc research projects as requested and present results in a concise manner

Read the rest of this entry »

A few days ago, I wrote about projections and the stretch run, using ZiPS to project each individual game and estimate its relative importance for the final standings. With just a few games remaining, most have the potential to drastically swing the disposition of the race. For example, the Mariners saw their playoff probability quintuple with last night’s win over the A’s! Let’s break down the latest and greatest.

AL Wild Card

This one is still very wide open, with the main difference from 48 hours ago being that the Mariners have pushed the A’s to the brink of elimination. Oakland can still make the playoffs, but the path is narrow and would require Oakland to win three or four games while Toronto, Boston, and Seattle mostly lose, and then perhaps survive a tiebreaker. Oakland can no longer catch the Yankees, so it’s in the A’s interest for the Yankees to finish a sweep of the Jays: Read the rest of this entry »