The Cardinals traded Mike Leake to the Mariners today. That makes some sense, as Seattle needed a guy capable of throwing league-average innings more than St. Louis did. Most moves these days are like that, with sensible people making sensible moves that generally look fine. The days of regularly bewildering transactions in baseball are mostly over.
But they aren’t totally extinct. For instance, yesterday, we got this piece of news.
Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.
Tom de Blok, RHP, Detroit (Profile)
Level: Low-A Age: 21 Org Rank: NR Top 100: NR
Line: 7 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 0 R, 8 K
Notes
de Blok has been one of the more interesting stories in minor-league baseball this year. He was signed out of the Netherlands by Seattle in August of 2013, but he didn’t enjoy his time training in Arizona, some of his things were stolen, and de Blok retired during extended spring training the following year.
Yesterday’s start didn’t work out particularly well for Rich Hill. In his first appearance since bringing a perfect game into the ninth inning and then losing a no-hitter (and the game) in the 10th, the Dodgers left-hander conceded a single to the first Diamondbacks hitter he faced on Tuesday. He also conceded hits to the third, fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh batters he faced. By the time he’d recorded his third out in Arizona, he’d allowed five runs. His club’s win expectancy? Less than 13%.
Hill’s night wasn’t a complete shambles, however. Because, even en route to allowing six runs, he also did this:
What this is, is Rich Hill executing a nearly perfect drag bunt against Zack Godley and the rest of the Arizona infield in the the third inning. This is, of course, unusual — a fact which even the casual viewer might have gathered by the reaction of Dodgers first-base coach George Lombard.
While it’s not uncommon for pitchers to bunt — nearly a quarter of their balls in play as batters are bunts, noted Eli Ben-Porat yesterday for the Hardball Times — almost all of those are sacrifice attempts. Of the 539 successful bunts recorded by pitchers this year, only 45 (or, 8.3%) have resulted in hits — and many of those batted balls ultimately classified as “bunt hits” are actually just sacrifice attempts with extenuating circumstances.
Consider the case of Cardinals righty Carlos Martinez. Martinez currently leads all pitchers with three bunt hits. As one can observe, however, he hasn’t really intended to reach base in any one of those instances.
Here’s one of those so-called “bunt hits,” from May 13th:
A second, from June 5th:
And the most recent one, from August 18th:
All three of Martinez’s bunt hints have actually been squeeze attempts in which the fielder has endeavored to record an out at home. In all three cases, the fielder has failed in that endeavor. As a result, a hit has been assessed — almost by default — to Martinez.
The only other pitcher with multiple bunt hits is Zach Davies. Both of them look very much like the sort for which Carlos Martinez is responsible.
Here’s the first one, from a July 25th game against the Nationals:
And from later that same game, on a play that very much resembles an error, but is apparently not an error.
Between Martinez and Davies, that’s five bunts scored as hits, but never intended to be hits — certainly not in the way Hill intended to bunt for a hit.
The difference, of course, is that Martinez and Davies were batting with men on base in every instance. Hill attempted his bunt with no one aboard. And this, for pitchers, is a much more rare event.
A data query by my colleague Jeff Zimmerman reveals that, including Hill’s attempt last night, pitchers have bunted with the bases empty on just 13 occasions this year. Along with Carlos Carrasco, Hill is the only pitcher credited with two bases-empty bunt attempts.
His first one, back on June 3rd, actually caused some trouble for the Milwaukee defense:
Notably, Dodgers pitchers account for five of the 13 bases-empty bunt attempts — and the only successful one before last night, executed by Julio Urias on May 9th.
Urias’s effort resembled Hill’s from last night:
Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.
Michael Hermosillo, OF, Los Angeles AL (Profile)
Level: Triple-A Age: 22 Org Rank: 14 Top 100: NR
Line: 3-for-4, 2 HR, BB
Notes
Hermosillo, a 28th rounder in 2013, was a two-sport high schooler committed to play football at Illinois, but he was coaxed into pro ball by a $100,000 signing bonus. He opened up his stance a bit last year and hit fairly well during an injury-shortened regular season before heading to the Arizona Fall League, where his physical tools measured up nicely compared to some of baseball’s better prospects.
This year, Hermosillo’s in-box footwork has again been tweaked, and he’s deploying a slower, more committed leg kick. Hitters who have deployed a leg kick like this in recent years have noted that it not only unlocks more pull-side power but also improves their timing. This is what seems to have happened for Hermosillo, who’s now more consistent and comfortable in the batter’s box than he was last season. He’s patient, athletic, and might do enough offensive damage to project in more than just a bench outfield role if these changes have truly unlocked previously dormant physical ability.
Location: Coplay, Pa.
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Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.
Mike O’Reilly, RHP, St. Louis (Profile)
Level: Hi-A Age: 22 Org Rank: NR Top 100: NR
Line: 6 IP, 9 H, 0 BB, 2 R, 7 K
Notes
A 27th rounder out of Flagler College last year, O’Reilly was promoted to High-A Palm Beach in late July after a dominant four-game stretch of Midwest League starts that included a complete game, one-hit, 12-strikeout performance. O’Reilly doesn’t throw all that hard, sitting 88-91, but he’s deceptive, he can locate his breaking ball for strikes, and he flashes a plus changeup. There’s some risk that O’Reilly’s fastball won’t be effective against upper-level hitters, but he has quality secondary stuff, throws strikes, and overall has a profile in line with valuable upper-level pitching depth.
Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.
Victor Robles, CF, Washington (Profile)
Level: Double-A Age: 20 Org Rank: 1 Top 100: 8
Line: 3-for-5, 2B, HR, SB
Notes
Robles is slashing .320/.375/.505 since his promotion to Double-A and has tallied a career-high 51 extra-base hits already this year. Many of those are doubles hooked down the left-field line that Robles turns into extra bases because of his plus-plus speed. Though he still has occasional lapses out there right now, that speed is likely to make Robles a very good defensive center fielder at maturity as he runs down balls in the gaps that many center fielders cannot. Scouts anticipate Robles will hit around .300 with some pop — though probably not quite as much as he’s shown this year — while playing good defense in center field. As a point of reference, Lorenzo Cain, a good defensive center fielder, has slashed .295/.360/.440 this season with strikeout and walk rates within 1% of Robles’ career marks. Cain has generated 3.3 WAR in 119 games this year. That appears to be a very reasonable outcome for Robles, who is one of baseball’s best prospects.
Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.
Pedro Avila, RHP, San Diego (Profile)
Level: Low-A Age: 20 Org Rank: NR Top 100: NR
Line: 7.1 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 1 R, 13 K
Notes
This was Avila’s fifth double-digit strikeout game this year and his second in the last three starts, as he K’d 18 at Great Lakes on August 8th. A stocky 5-foot-11, Avila doesn’t have a huge fastball, sitting mostly 91-93 and dipping just beneath that from the stretch, but he frequently demonstrates pinpoint command of it, working to both his arm and glove sides. That gets Avila ahead in the count and sets up his deep-diving curveball, which bites enough to miss bats in the strike zone as well as below it. He also flashes a plus changeup. Avila began the year in High-A and struggled to throw strikes (but not miss bats) there for nine starts before a demotion. He has 102 strikeouts in 74.2 innings since then. Avila was acquired during Winter Meetings from Washington in exchange for Derek Norris.
Sunday night, Rafael Devers went yard against Aroldis Chapman, even though Chapman’s fastball was recorded at nearly 103 miles per hour. It’s the fastest pitch hit out in the pitch-tracking era, which has spanned nearly a decade, and that linked article was almost obligatory. Had to write something up. Devers tagged Chapman, even though it seemed like Chapman had his best stuff.
To a certain extent, you can’t blame Chapman for what happened. He threw a lefty-on-lefty fastball, with two strikes, kind of up and in at over 100 miles per hour. That pitch should basically never go for a homer. I’m still not sure how it happened. But, ignore the homer for a moment. Pretend it was a double, or a single. Or even an out! Whatever you like. Devers made contact. Solid contact, at that. The contact is what’s strange, and there are signs of a problematic trend, here.
Let’s examine Chapman’s career, shall we? I’ve prepared three rolling-average plots, each using samples of 30 games. This first one shows the development of Chapman’s average fastball.
You could argue there’s a recent down tick, but Chapman is still regularly reaching triple digits. His fastball is fast. Still a Chapman fastball. Like we all saw with the at-bat against Devers, Chapman can still run it up there about as hard as he ever has. So, based on the velocity, Chapman seems okay. Shifting to pitch location, we can see a trend from the past year and a half or so.
Chapman has been aggressive with pitching in the zone. He’s thrown two-thirds of his pitches for strikes, and this year in particular, he’s regularly gotten ahead with the first pitches of plate appearances. And, of course, with such an unhittable fastball, why mess around? Chapman had a terrific 2016, in which he came right after his opponents. This year, he’s done much of the same. But-
That plot shows contact rate. Chapman’s present contact rate is far higher than it’s been since earlier in 2013. All of a sudden — it’s not so much that Chapman is hittable, but he’s a great deal more hittable than he’s been. Look at this table of the biggest contact-rate declines from last year, with a minimum of 30 innings:
| Pitcher | 2016 Contact% | 2017 Contact% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aroldis Chapman | 65.4% | 75.2% | 9.8% |
| Seung Hwan Oh | 65.6% | 74.4% | 8.8% |
| Matt Cain | 80.4% | 89.1% | 8.7% |
| Dustin McGowan | 69.5% | 78.0% | 8.5% |
| Junichi Tazawa | 73.5% | 82.0% | 8.5% |
| Luke Gregerson | 57.9% | 65.7% | 7.8% |
| Mychal Givens | 70.0% | 77.5% | 7.5% |
| Daniel Coulombe | 70.5% | 77.9% | 7.4% |
| Kelvin Herrera | 70.3% | 77.3% | 7.0% |
| Cole Hamels | 74.6% | 81.5% | 6.9% |
Chapman has a contact rate of 75.2%. The league-average reliever has a contact rate of 75.4%. No pitcher’s contact rate has dropped by more, and although Chapman is still mostly okay, and although this could be a blip, he was on the disabled list for a month, with a rotator-cuff problem. His contact rate has only risen since he came back. The velocity is there, and maybe that’s the most important thing, but you do have to wonder. Chapman’s been one of the most dominant relievers anyone’s ever seen. Real cracks appear to be forming.
Related to this, consider Chapman’s year-to-year ranks among all relievers in Win Probability Added:
I don’t know what the issue is. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if it were linked to the injury. In that case, it would be nice to have an explanation. But even then, explanation isn’t resolution. Aroldis Chapman is allowing roughly league-average contact. He’s in the first year of the largest contract a reliever has ever signed.
I don’t think many people expected the NL Central to be very close, but here we are, with four teams within four games of the divisional lead. Although the Cubs, as expected, have risen to sit in first, their closest rivals now are the Cardinals, but one single game behind. For those Cardinals, it’s been a pretty ordinary season, and it’s been a pretty weird one.
The best player on the Cardinals, by Wins Above Replacement, leads the team by a margin of one full win. The best player on the Cardinals didn’t crack the opening-day roster. As a consequence of that, the best player on the Cardinals gave serious thought to calling it quits. The best player on the Cardinals is a 29-year-old who came into the year with a half-season’s worth of major-league experience. The best player on the Cardinals has himself an extended injury history, and the best player on the Cardinals has also had to manage a degenerative eye condition, called keratoconus. The best player on the Cardinals probably isn’t supposed to be the best player on the Cardinals.
And still, at least statistically, the best player on the Cardinals has been Tommy Pham. It’s been fun for me to watch Mike Trout glide up the WAR leaderboard since his return to the bigs. As I write this, he’s tied with Paul Goldschmidt for third place, as hitters go. Pham is no Trout — he’s down there in 22nd, among position players. But that’s 22nd out of a sample a lot bigger than 22 players. That’s 22nd even though Pham hasn’t been up all year. That’s 22nd, which puts Pham above guys like Michael Conforto, Travis Shaw, and Andrew McCutchen.
Watch Tommy Pham hit a dinger. I don’t know what purpose this clip serves, but, who doesn’t want to watch a dinger? It’s a visual break from the wall of text.
Pham’s personal story is far too deep, complex, and interesting for a short blog post. I’d recommend reading this feature, or this one, or this one. Pham’s dealt with adversity from nearly the start of his life, and that’s for reasons even beyond his compromised vision. But just from a baseball perspective: Can you imagine trying to hit with compromised vision? This is an excerpt from the first of those links.
Pham said he is legally blind in his left eye due to keratoconus.
At present, Pham is able to play and perform through careful management of special contact lenses. I’ve already mentioned that Pham looks excellent according to WAR. He’s gotten there by being an all-around contributor. This is the kind of thing I’ve called attention to before when talking about Anthony Rendon. I looked at a spreadsheet of this year’s players with at least 250 plate appearances. I narrowed the pool down to only those players who’ve been at least average by K-BB%, ISO, BABIP, baserunning, and defense. The group includes only nine players. Rendon, yeah. Pham, too. Pham’s been solid across the board. He’s even cleaned up his biggest on-field weakness.
This right here is probably the highlight of this entry. We’ve got some plate-discipline data stretching back more than a decade and a half. I looked at every single player over that span to bat at least 100 times in consecutive seasons. Here are the 10 biggest year-to-year improvements in contact rate:
| Player | Year 1 | Year 2 | Y1 Contact% | Y2 Contact% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Pham | 2016 | 2017 | 66.1% | 79.9% | 13.8% |
| Anthony Rizzo | 2011 | 2012 | 68.7% | 80.9% | 12.2% |
| Laynce Nix | 2004 | 2005 | 69.6% | 81.4% | 11.8% |
| Chris Davis | 2009 | 2010 | 63.1% | 74.8% | 11.7% |
| Nick Franklin | 2015 | 2016 | 66.8% | 78.3% | 11.5% |
| Alex Bregman | 2016 | 2017 | 74.7% | 85.7% | 11.0% |
| Freddie Bynum | 2007 | 2008 | 66.7% | 77.7% | 11.0% |
| Alex Escobar | 2003 | 2004 | 64.0% | 74.9% | 10.9% |
| Bill Hall | 2004 | 2005 | 69.0% | 79.7% | 10.7% |
| Jason LaRue | 2007 | 2008 | 67.1% | 77.6% | 10.5% |
That’s a hard thing to pull off by accident. As a result, Pham has trimmed his strikeout rate by an unbelievable 15 percentage points, and although Pham now just looks pretty similar to what he was as a part-time player in 2015, he’s doing it now over greater playing time. And so Pham is now a player with a career WAR/600 of 4.5.
The St. Louis outfield remains crowded. Pham remains an objectively risky player, or at least a player with a higher degree of volatility. I don’t know to what extent the Cardinals actually trust him, but that trust has to be a lot stronger than it was a few months ago, and, if it weren’t for Pham, the Cardinals wouldn’t be where they are today in the standings. The best player on the Cardinals is a miracle. I don’t think I’m even exaggerating.
