Position: Atlanta Braves Major League Advance Scout Trainee

Location: Atlanta
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The Red Sox have been talking about adding power all winter. The Yankees just traded for Giancarlo Stanton. Dave Dombrowski is unlikely to just let that move go unchallenged, so the Red Sox are probably more likely than ever to outbid everyone for J.D. Martinez. And the wheels to make that happen might be starting to turn.

The Boston #RedSox have let several teams know that CF Jackie Bradley is available in their pursuit of a power bat. #Cubs

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) December 11, 2017

When the Jose Abreu rumors kicked up a couple of weeks ago, I wrote about how swapping Bradley for a slugger might make the team different but not necessarily better. And while Martinez is better than Abreu, the same principle applies here.

Unless the Red Sox get a great return for Bradley, swapping him out for whatever you can get for him in order to sign Martinez would be more rearranging the deck chairs than a massive upgrade. And it would cost a lot of money, since Bradley will make about $6 million in arbitration, and Martinez will cost north of $25 million per year to sign as a free agent. Martinez is better than Bradley, but he’s not $19 million per year better than Bradley.

Now, maybe there’s a big market for Bradley’s services, and Dombrowski is going to pull off a great trade that brings back a low-cost quality young first baseman or starting pitcher. There are scenarios where trading Bradley could make sense. But it feels more likely that the Red Sox would be selling low for the primary purpose of creating a spot in the outfield so they can justify overpaying Martinez. And if that really is the plan, this probably isn’t something Red Sox fans should be rooting for.

After Giancarlo Stanton rejected deals to the Cardinals and Giants, the Yankees sensed opportunity and have reportedly reached an agreement to acquire the NL MVP. While the Shohei Ohtani decision Friday was the most anticipated news item of the offseason, this is a stunning and fascinating development.

sources: yankees and marlins have a deal for giancarlo stanton

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 9, 2017

Source: Giancarlo Stanton trade agreement is in place between #Yankees and #Marlins, but deal is still pending Stanton’s consent and Yankees approval of physical. @MLBNetwork @MLB

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 9, 2017

The stove is piping hot.

Already in possession of the only player to rival and exceed Stanton’s power and frame in Aaron Judge, the Yankees now have each of the game’s Statcast Gods — if Stanton approves the deal. Complete details are not known regarding the return for the Marlins. Read the rest of this entry »

Well, this is something.

#Yankees in play for Stanton, sources tell The Athletic.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 9, 2017

Sources: Yankees making progress on a trade for Giancarlo Stanton. One source cautioned nothing done. Another was confident it’s moving toward that. Either way, momentum for Stanton to Yankees is significant.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 9, 2017

#Yankees are indeed making a move to try to land Stanton. Deal coming into focus

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) December 9, 2017

After Stanton vetoed the Giants and Cardinals, and reportedly listed just four teams he’d accept trades to, the Yankees are turning into opportunists. Pretty clearly, they weren’t interested at the price SF/STL were willing to pay, but with those teams out of the running, it’s pretty easy to imagine Brian Cashman calling his former shortstop with an offer that is totally just helping out a former friend and not at all taking advantage of an executive who might be in over his head.

The Yankees already have an overcrowded outfield, with Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, and Aaron Judge as the penciled in starters, Jacoby Ellsbury a pretty decent (if overpaid) fourth OF, and Clint Frazier hanging around in case anyone gets hurt. While Ellsbury could be included in the deal as a salary offset, the Marlins were reportedly looking to avoid taking on money in the pre opt-out years, hoping that any financial commitment remaining on their books would be wiped out if Stanton did indeed exercise his option after the 2020 season.

And even if the team added Stanton, Ellsbury still has his usefulness as insurance for Hicks in center, so perhaps Brett Gardner and his easily movable $11M 2018 salary (with a cheap $12.5 million 2019 option) is more likely to be going back to Miami, since the Marlins wouldn’t have a hard time then flipping Gardner elsewhere in a separate move.

If the Yankees acquired Stanton, Frazier would also become somewhat redundant, so perhaps the Yankees would send back a pair of outfielders, consolidating their depth into a better starting left fielder. Of course, the primary downside of this plan would be that — barring a decision to totally punt CF defense — acquiring Stanton makes signing Bryce Harper less likely next year, and many have long speculated that Harper is going to end up in pinstripes. But if the Marlins are legitimately desperate and the Yankees can get Stanton for something in the low $200M range without parting with a ton of young talent, they’d very likely be better off making a deal now rather than trying to win the bidding for Harper next year.

It’s been a nutty 24 hours. It doesn’t sound like things are slowing down any time soon.

Update.

Best of luck, AL East lefties.

The Marlins struck two deals to trade Giancarlo Stanton and most of his remaining contract, one with the St. Louis Cardinals, and the other with the San Francisco Giants. Earlier today, the Cardinals announced that they were out of the running, and now, the Giants have made the same concession.

#SFGiants also announce they are out on Stanton.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 8, 2017

Stanton and his representatives likely imagined this exact scenario when they signed a long-term deal with Jeffrey Loria, knowing that the day would come when the Marlins decided that they only really wanted those first few cheap years, not the expensive ones at the end of the deal. Getting a full no-trade clause gives Stanton the ability to decide exactly where he wants to play, and apparently, it isn’t San Francisco either.

While there are some attractive things about the franchise, it’s not an entirely surprising decision. AT&T Park is one of the worst places to hit in all of baseball, and if Stanton is planning on opting out in three years, he probably stands a better chance of getting another raise if he doesn’t have to remind every other team about park effects as the primary part of his pitch. The Giants also were atrocious last year, and even with Stanton, would have been a fringe Wild Card contender, well behind the Dodgers in the NL West pecking order.

Plus, growing up in LA, I’m guessing he didn’t have the fondest feelings about the Giants as a kid. So when the arch rival of the team you grew up rooting for wants to trade for you, coming off a season where they posted the second-worst record in baseball, it’s probably not that appealing of an offer. And since Stanton has every right to dictate where he’s traded, there’s no real reason for him to settle for an option he doesn’t prefer, since he doesn’t have to.

For the Marlins, this is nothing short of a disaster. The teams that Stanton has reportedly indicated he will accept a trade to — the Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, and Cubs — can all win without him, and all of them are probably eying Bryce Harper as a potential free agent target next winter. To take themselves out of the Harper bidding at this point, they’re going to have to get Stanton at a significant discount. There’s no sense of urgency from any of those clubs.

At this point, the Marlins may very well be best served just waiting until next year, then marketing Stanton as the cheaper alternative to the teams that don’t get Harper. Trying to force a trade now, when they have almost no leverage, is how a franchise makes a disastrous decision. If the Dodgers want to get into a bidding war, the Marlins should obviously consider it, but they’re now in dangerous territory, and could end up making a colossal mistake if they refuse to see any other options besides trading Stanton this winter.

If there’s a race for Giancarlo Stanton’s heart, the Cardinals haven’t gotten a rose and won’t be headed to the final rounds. Jon Morosi is reporting that the player blocked a trade to the Cardinals and informed the teams of his choice this afternoon.

Giancarlo Stanton has decided not to accept trade to St. Louis. #STLCards GM John Mozeliak: “Unfortunately we were not able to convince Stanton to waive his no-trade clause and join the Cardinals. We felt this was a great landing spot for him, but it was not meant to be.” @MLB

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 8, 2017

In terms of projected standings, the Cardinals are a top-ten team that would have become more formidable with the inclusion of that giant bat in the middle of their lineup, so it may be fair for fans St. Louis to decry the choice.

But most of the names that are supposedly on Stanton’s approved list — the Astros, Cubs, Yankees, and Dodgers — are also all in the top ten when it comes to projected outcomes. He can still go to a great team and make them better.

And while there’s reporting that the Giants are not fairing well in terms of their ranking on the remaining teams — The Chronicle’s Henry Schulman is reporting that “Stanton has told friends that the Giants are not his first choice and might be his last” — San Francisco is officially still in the running, which proves one more thing: Stanton is a human being with many different things that are important to him, including where he wants to live, where his family will live, and where he wants to play.

It’s frustrating, perhaps, to follow this as a fan. But we have to remember his humanity and respect his process as he tries to make one of the more important choices of his career. We’ll see who’s next to drop off the list as this continues.

Congratulations to the Angels and the good people of Anaheim, Shohei Ohtani has chosen you.

He perhaps has also chosen wisely.

Ohtani’s agency, CAA, released a statement Friday afternoon saying their client of international interest and acclaim had made his decision after meeting with seven finalists this week. The Angels had made trades to acquire $2.3 million in bonus pool money.

Statement from agent Nez Balelo on Ohtani's decision to join the #Angels pic.twitter.com/NIc3APCbtS

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) December 8, 2017

An American League destination always seemed to make the most sense due to the DH role for a player who desires to hit and pitch, who desires to be a historic and unique figure within the game. While there seem to be some indicators that Ohtani preferred a small, West Coast market, he chose the No. 2 team in the nation’s No. 2 market.

With Ohtani and Mike Trout now on the roster, the Angels are a must-see attraction in 2018 and beyond. Read the rest of this entry »

Position: Texas Rangers TrackMan Operators

Locations: Round Rock, Texas; Frisco, Texas; Kinston, N.C.; Hickory, N.C.; Spokane, Wash.
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The hot stove is warming up, and as always, Jerry Dipoto is the one stoking the fire.

Source: #Mariners acquire Dee Gordon from #Marlins.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 7, 2017

Now, you might say, don’t the Mariners already have the most expensive second baseman in baseball? Why yes, yes they do. So why are they trading for Dee Gordon? Because they’re not acquiring him to play second base.

Dee Gordon will play CF for the #Mariners according to club source

— Jim Bowden??? (@JimBowdenGM) December 7, 2017

The Mariners have put a heavy emphasis on athleticism in the outfield under Dipoto’s regime, and with Jarrod Dyson now a free agent, the team is apparently betting on Gordon’s speed translating into similar results in the outfield. And there’s no question that Gordon is one of the very fastest players in the game.

By sprint speed, he’s nearly equal to Byron Buxton and Billy Hamilton, maybe the two best defensive outfielders alive. Of course, it has to be noted that he’s also right next to Delino Deshields, another exceptionally fast former second baseman who moved to the outfield, but has split his time between LF and CF because he hasn’t impressed enough to be handed a regular job in CF. Speed obviously matters, but it is not, in and of itself, determinative of outfield ability.

That said, Gordon was a very poor defensive SS early in his career and worked to make himself into a strong defensive second baseman, so he’s already learned a new position and made himself more valuable once. If Gordon can do it again, turning his raw speed into upper-tier range in center field again, then he could be a nice player for the Mariners.

Gordon isn’t a great hitter, but his baserunning is so valuable than he’s been an above-average offensive player throughout his career, and he’s at +26 runs of offense over the last four years, since his 2014 breakout in LA. If you pair an above-average offensive player with potentially above-average center field defense, that’s an impact player, which is obviously what the Mariners are hoping for.

In order to bring Gordon to Seattle, they took on the rest of the $38 million he’s owed and surrendered one of the few good pieces they had left in their farm system.

Nick Neidert is a good prospect. Saw him at 87-91 this year. Plus changeup, plus command. Fastball's movement, Neidert's 3/4s slot, and his cross-body delivery allow it – and his breaking ball – to play up against RHH. Think's he's a weird, reverse splits, #4 starter. A 50.

— Eric Longenhagen (@longenhagen) December 7, 2017

Nick Neidert was one of the team’s best arms, even without a super high ceiling, while Chris Torres and Robert Dugger are low-level lottery tickets who aren’t without value. This wasn’t a straight salary dump for the Marlins, who got three guys worth watching in return.

But along with Gordon, the Mariners also get another $1 million in international bonus money, which is obviously being acquired to try and get Shohei Otani to sign with the Mariners. They gave up another prospect last night to acquire $1 million from the Twins, so the plan is pretty clearly to surrender whatever necessary to give the organization the best chance possible to win the Ohtani derby.

And given how valuable he is, any marginal improvement in that sweepstakes is probably worth surrendering decent-but-unspectacular prospects. Ohtani is probably worth some team’s entire farm systems by himself. He’ll instantly become one of the most valuable resources in whatever organization he joins. If this deal helps the Mariners land Ohtani, the price paid becomes inconsequential.

And if Gordon turns into a good defensive CF, then this could very well be a nice move on its own merits. So there’s clearly upside here for Seattle.

But there’s plenty of downside too. Ohtani might go elsewhere. Gordon might end up not taking well to the OF, and then the team would have an expensive corner outfielder with a light bat, or a second baseman who pushes Robinson Cano to first base, both options limiting their offense. And the farm system continues to be strip-mined for short-term gains, so if the Mariners don’t win, all this borrowing from the future won’t look so good in a few years.

It’s not entirely correct to say that the Mariners are “Ohtani or bust” at this point, but they really need him. And if they get him, they won’t care that they don’t have a farm system anymore.

The hot stove is flickering! There is actual news!

Cubs have agreed to a three-year deal with RHP Tyler Chatwood

— Sahadev Sharma (@sahadevsharma) December 7, 2017

Chatwood was one of the more interesting free agents in this class. Mike Petriello made a case for why Chatwood could be this year’s Charlie Morton, a high-velocity guy with a high-spin curveball who just needs a change of scenery. He was always likely to sign with an analytically-inclined organization, and the Cubs certainly qualify.

Chatwood ranked 17th among our Top 50 free agents heading into the off-season, with projections that work out to roughly league-average pitching when he’s on the mound, with durability a legitimate question.

I projected he’d get $30 million over three years, but it sounds like he did a bit better than that.

Tyler Chatwood's contract with #Cubs is worth around $40 million over 3 years, source says. @MLB @MLBNetwork

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 7, 2017

At nearly $40 million, Chatwood is no huge bargain, but there are definitely things to like about having him as a back-end starter with upside. There’s also plenty of risk here, of course, and the fact that an upside play with a limited track record of success costs $40 million tells you that this is a good winter to be a free agent pitcher.