Projecting Jeimer Candelario and Isaac Paredes
The Cubs traded for Justin Wilson and Alex Avila. Below are the projections for the prospects the Tigers received in exchange for their services. WAR figures account for the player’s first six major-league seasons. KATOH denotes the stats-only version of the projection system, while KATOH+ denotes the methodology that includes a player’s prospect rankings.
Jeimer Candelario, 3B (Profile)
KATOH: 4.4 WAR (108th)
KATOH+: 4.3 WAR (83rd)
Candelerio was slashing .266/.361/.507 in the Pacific Coast League this year, with a bunch of doubles and walks. The PCL has surely helped his power numbers a good deal, but his 12% walk rate illustrates that he does a decent job of controlling the strike zone. Defensively, Candelario has been an above-average third baseman this year in the minors. Although he’s been in the Cubs’ system forever, Candelario’s still just 23. A 23-year-old third baseman who can both hit and play average-ish defense is a fine prospect.
To put some faces to Candelario’s statistical profile, let’s generate some statistical comps. I calculated a Mahalanobis distance between Candelario’s Triple-A performance and every Triple-A season since 1991. In the table below, you’ll find the 10 most similar seasons, ranked from most to least similar. The WAR totals refer to each player’s first six seasons in the major leagues. Please note that the Mahalanobis analysis is separate from KATOH. KATOH relies on macro-level trends, rather than comps. The fates of a few statistically similar players shouldn’t be used to draw sweeping conclusions about a prospect’s future. For this reason, I recommend using a player’s KATOH forecast to assess his future potential. The comps give us some interesting names that sometimes feel spot-on, but they’re mostly just there for fun.
| Rank | Name | KATOH+ Proj. WAR | Actual WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Stahoviak | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 2 | Joe Crede | 4.0 | 10.0 |
| 3 | Howard Battle | 2.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | Chad Tracy | 4.8 | 8.0 |
| 5 | Willy Aybar | 3.8 | 2.4 |
| 6 | Gary Scott | 2.8 | 0.0 |
| 7 | Tom Evans | 3.6 | 0.1 |
| 8 | Garrett Atkins | 4.6 | 9.7 |
| 9 | Casey McGehee | 2.8 | 4.5 |
| 10 | Brian Barden | 2.5 | 0.1 |
…
Isaac Paredes, SS (Profile)
KATOH: 5.2 WAR (76th)
KATOH+: 3.6 WAR (104th)
Despite being just 18 years old, Paredes is already in and has held his own in full-season ball, slashing .261/.341/.399 with a 14% strikeout rate in Low-A. That’s encouraging for an 18 year old, but it’s especially encouraging coming from an 18-year-old shortstop. Scouts are a tad skeptical of Paredes, citing a lack of physical projection and athleticism needed to stick at shortstop long-term. KATOH picks up on this too — by way of his height (5-foot-11) and lack of stolen bases — but still finds him very intriguing due to his combination of youth, contact and defense. As a Low-A hitter, Paredes has a long way to go, but he has several characteristics that often portend to big league success.
| Rank | Name | KATOH+ Proj. WAR | Actual WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raul Chavez | 2.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | Luis Cruz | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | Juan Melo | 5.3 | 0.0 |
| 4 | Brent Butler | 3.8 | 0.0 |
| 5 | Pokey Reese | 4.3 | 6.4 |
| 6 | Kenny Perez | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| 7 | Hector Made | 1.9 | 0.0 |
| 8 | Danny Klassen | 4.0 | 0.0 |
| 9 | Victor Rodriguez | 2.8 | 0.0 |
| 10 | Brad Harman | 2.6 | 0.0 |
Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.
Many scouts don’t believe Candelario can stay at 3B.
Thanks for the writeup and especially the graphs. I’m likely biased by his brief time in the majors where he looked totally outmatched, but I just don’t get the fuss over Candelario.
I may come down to which scouts are right about his defense, but I see a guy who doesn’t field well enough to stick at 3B and might not hit well enough to play 1B. From the graphs, about a 60% chance he never has a any major league impact. There is a 10% chance that he’s a star but the upside seems like league-average regular for a few years.
Thanks for the article, a note for the depth charts. It has Austin Romine listed on the Tigers as the backup rightfielder, pretty messed up in all honesty.