Rangers Do More Things
Do you have a slightly used, not that expensive free agent who might make a positive contribution to a ballclub in the 2019 season? Maybe a backup catcher known for handling pitchers well? A starting pitcher with a recent history of Tommy John surgery? An older reliever with a little success last season? What about an aging utility infielder who can’t seem to get any good offers? If so, the Texas Rangers are interested. In a busy offseason, the Rangers have added Jeff Mathis, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller, Edinson Volquez, Jesse Chavez, and Asdrubal Cabrera in free agency, and Drew Smyly in a trade with the Cubs, for a combined total under $60 million, with half that total going to Lynn. The team is continuing down the same road with relievers, inking the soon-to-be 35-year-old Shawn Kelley to a one year deal worth $2.5 million, per Jeff Passan.
It’s pretty clear the Rangers aren’t aiming to compete for a division title next season. Even after adding Kelley, the Rangers projected payroll is around $113 million, more than $50 million less than it was just two seasons ago. In what is pretty clearly a transition year, Texas has amassed a cadre of players with very low floors and middle of the road ceilings. The team doesn’t need Smyly, Volquez, and Miller to work out, but if one of them did, they might have a decent player to trade at the deadline in exchange for some prospects that can help in the future. Relievers always have some value at the deadline. In fact, the team just traded the recently signed Jesse Chavez when he was on their club in July, receiving Tyler Thomas in return. The Rangers aren’t likely to get much from Tyler Thomas, but if you can acquire enough similar players, some of them are bound to work out. That brings us to Kelley.
In 2015 and 2016, Kelley was a solid reliever for the Padres and Nationals, putting up a 2.78 FIP, a 2.55 ERA, and striking out a third of the batters he faced while walking just 6% of hitters. The 2017 season didn’t go so well. Kelley missed time with lower back problems, a strained right trapezius, and bone chips in his right elbow. He only pitched 26 innings, but gave up 12 homers and both his ERA and FIP were around eight.
Last season, Kelley gave up three homers in his first eight appearances, but was mostly fine all year. From May through the end of the season, Kelley had a 3.30 FIP and 2.72 ERA. His strikeouts and velocity were down a bit, but he his fastball/slider combination got the job done. The Nationals traded him to the A’s at the deadline for international bonus pool money after Kelley lost his temper during a blowout win in an otherwise lost season. The A’s had little problem with Kelley as the righty posted an ERA and FIP both in the low-twos.
Kelley could be the valuable reliever he’s been for most of his career and net the team a prospect at the deadline. Or he might be the less-good, hurt reliever from 2017. Either way, the Rangers aren’t taking a lot of risk to find out if Kelley can still get outs.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
What is the Rangers endgame here? They don’t have a good farm system, they don’t have any young talent on the MLB roster except Gallo, and they don’t have a good major league team. All of their prospects of note are either center fielders or pitchers with iffy control, and Willie Calhoun, who went backwards. These stopgaps are fine, but…is there an endgame anywhere in sight? There is something terribly broken with this team, either in the amateur acquisition or MiLB development programs. What is it?
I think the second paragraph is where Craig partially answers your question.
So I think you’re right, and this is probably their plan. But although they might have a few hits out of it, these moves are unlikely to change the course of the franchise. Something is broken, and this is not going to cover it up for very long.
While your points are valid, keep in mind that this is not necessarily the sum total of the organizational plan to improve. It’s just an easy and cheap way to possibly get some mid range prospects at next year’s deadline for retreads that don’t cost anything in a year when competing isn’t really an option. The lack of evidence of a bigger plan for the organization does not negate the value of this particular tactic.
The “endgame” is the new ballpark opening in 2020. Presumably they plan to be active next offseason for that; they’re just treading water this year. Of course, apparently no MLB team has to be good or attract fans anymore, since they make money on the TV deals. MLBAM, and (soon) gambling no matter what.
The end game: Throw a bunch of sh*t at the wall and hope some of it sticks and becomes tradable assets to help rebuild that subpar farm system, while hoping some of the young kids (mazara, odor, gallo, etc..) still have another level of development they can reach…. when you don’t have a good team or farm system, one of the fastest ways to kickstart that farm system is signing bounce back or decent value vets that could end up with trade value (with a non-zero chance that everyone clicks and you’re an above .500 team)
And let’s not forget that it is more entertaining for fans to come to a game where the home club is less bad. To be quasi-philosophical for a moment, the endgame is not everything; there is also the journey.
I actually agree with this point. It’s one of the reasons why I think they should consider hanging onto Gallo, since he’s pretty much the only fun thing about this team.
some reliable deck chairs there
Tanking in baseball doesn’t make a ton of sense to me, as, unlike the NBA or NFL, top draft picks are not hugely more valuable than other first round picks (a few noted exceptions), one player cannot turn a franchise around, and draft pick contributors typically take 2-3 years to get to the bigs.
I respect what the Rangers are doing. These signings may help them win some games and provide entertainment to their fans, while they develop and acquire younger players lower in their system. None of these players block a prospect and the money spent now does not appear as if it will crowd out future spending. More teams should be doing this.
Tanking did make some sense, but it had to be done ruthlessly and then needed luck to work. That said, now it makes less sense, since teams have caught on and it’s a buyer’s market. Half the MLB is tanking now, which makes for few buyers and a lot of sellers.
“Half the MLB is tanking now”.
Do you actually believe this? I’d love for those 15 teams to enumerated.
I’ll assume there’s some hyperbole in there. But do you – does anyone – sincerely believe anything close to that? A third? A quarter, even?
I am highly skeptical that much “tanking” exists in baseball. [And I am loosely defining the term here as ‘preferring a loss to a win’. ] There are times in the NBA where the marginal utility of a win is negative; the value of moving up a pick or three in the first round can be enormous – and immediate. It’s rarely either in baseball.
IE, moving from the 12th worst team in baseball to the 5th worst team in baseball is likely to have a completely negligible impact on draft value – and if that value is ever realized, it’s far off. (Might there be negative utility of a baseball win late in the season if a team was in contention for worst record and could move up to the 1st pick. Sure. but that’s a specific instance, and not the rare micro case that I think people are talking about when they complain about ‘tanking’).
What I *do* think happens is teams managing the win curve a little more closely – IE, two years of 81 wins is less desirable than a 70 win season followed by a 92 win season and a shot at a championship. So when possible, teams aim for the latter – because it’s what fans prefer. And I don’t think that’s a bad thing.
(Oh, I also think that at the right price Gio Gonzalez could fit nicely into the current Rangers’ approach. But that’s a separate point.)
Aside from the Orioles, who just imported the old Astros’ brain trust, there is not a single team you could credibly accuse of tanking. There aren’t even that many sellers, and even those teams like the Mariners are doing things like signing Kikuchi.
the high drafts aren’t why tanking makes sense in baseball. trading anything that isn’t nailed down for hoards of young is where it makes sense. trading away any valuable piece also makes the teams horrible.
How many players on the 2018 Atlanta Braves were drafted by them vs traded for?
I can’t believe all the talent the Rangers have gotten this off season. Bet they are wishing now that they hung on to Hamels instead of giving him away.
Good lookin team ya got there Texas.