Red Sox Acquire Nathan Eovaldi

Who trades players at 10 AM? The Red Sox, apparently, is who. That’s what they’ve done today, at least, picking up right-hander Nathan Eovaldi from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for minor-league pitcher Jalen Beeks.

Trading Eovaldi represents the successful culmination of a two-year strategy for the Rays, who signed him to a one-year, $2 million contract for a 2017 he was going to miss due to Tommy John surgery. A one-year option for $2 million gave the Rays a chance to get some serious upside in value for their patience, $4 million representing basically ashtray money when it comes to signing major-league-competent starting pitchers.

Eovaldi’s always been a bit of a puzzle, a pitcher who possessed a fastball that touched 100 mph but lacked the key to closing the deal and punching out batters, his breaking pitches never effectively complementing his velocity. Relying heavily on a cutter this year, however, Eovaldi has produced the highest strikeout rate of his career to date (23.7%). Eovaldi had fooled around with the pitch before, but this is the first time he’s had real success with the pitch, FanGraphs’ linear-weighted measure of pitch value gives him the 10th-most valuable cutter in baseball this season, ninth on a rate basic for pitchers with a minimum of 50 innings.

Nathan Eovaldi, Pitch Usage 2018
LHH Four-Seam Cutter Slider Curve Split
All Counts 43% 31% 1% 3% 23%
First Pitch 56% 30% 0% 7% 7%
Batter Ahead 40% 47% 4% 1% 8%
Even 47% 26% 0% 6% 21%
Pitcher Ahead 39% 25% 1% 1% 34%
Two Strikes 37% 21% 1% 1% 39%
RHH Four-Seam Cutter Slider Curve Split
All Counts 41% 26% 25% 0% 8%
First Pitch 45% 29% 26% 0% 0%
Batter Ahead 33% 47% 19% 0% 1%
Even 43% 28% 25% 0% 5%
Pitcher Ahead 42% 15% 28% 1% 14%
Two Strikes 38% 16% 26% 0% 21%
SOURCE: Brooks Baseball

This has given Eovaldi a different look on the mound. While he was mostly a one-note pitcher early in his career, relying very heavily on the fastball, he’s now comfortable going to his cutter, throwing it more often than his fastball this season when behind in the count. He now will throw any of his pitches at two strikes against righties and all but the slider against lefties. His two nine-strikeout games this year match the total of nine-strikeout games he’d recorded before 2018.

The Red Sox aren’t expecting the world from Eovaldi, just some additional stability at the back of the rotation with Steven Wright. Even Eovaldi at his worst has generally at least been a suitable fourth or fifth starter, so Boston doesn’t even really need him to hit his upside for this trade to work out. One of the AL East teams will likely win 100 games and have to play that one-game Wild Card round. Obviously, Boston would prefer not to be that team.

The Rays pick up left-handed pitcher Jalen Beeks, who was a bit risky for the Red Sox to count as depth right now, especially after very weak outings against the decidedly non-scary Tigers and Rangers. Throwing four good but not plus pitches, Beeks has never been a favorite of prospect-hunters, but he’s gotten results all through the minors, his K/9 improving from 6.2 to 7.5 to 9.6 to 12.1 in 2018 with a general decrease in walk rate. He may not have that killer outpitch in the majors, but for a team with the opportunity to absorb some risk, I think you have to look at any young pitcher who succeeds at Triple-A, whether or not you think he can get over that final wall. Beeks may not have a very high upside, but the Rays will absolutely take a mid-rotation, inexpensive starter and they have a good track record with pitchers like this.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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kevinthecomic
5 years ago

Do the Rays also get an advance copy of The Beeks Report?