Red Sox Acquire Nathan Eovaldi
Who trades players at 10 AM? The Red Sox, apparently, is who. That’s what they’ve done today, at least, picking up right-hander Nathan Eovaldi from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for minor-league pitcher Jalen Beeks.
Trading Eovaldi represents the successful culmination of a two-year strategy for the Rays, who signed him to a one-year, $2 million contract for a 2017 he was going to miss due to Tommy John surgery. A one-year option for $2 million gave the Rays a chance to get some serious upside in value for their patience, $4 million representing basically ashtray money when it comes to signing major-league-competent starting pitchers.
Eovaldi’s always been a bit of a puzzle, a pitcher who possessed a fastball that touched 100 mph but lacked the key to closing the deal and punching out batters, his breaking pitches never effectively complementing his velocity. Relying heavily on a cutter this year, however, Eovaldi has produced the highest strikeout rate of his career to date (23.7%). Eovaldi had fooled around with the pitch before, but this is the first time he’s had real success with the pitch, FanGraphs’ linear-weighted measure of pitch value gives him the 10th-most valuable cutter in baseball this season, ninth on a rate basic for pitchers with a minimum of 50 innings.
| LHH | Four-Seam | Cutter | Slider | Curve | Split |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Counts | 43% | 31% | 1% | 3% | 23% |
| First Pitch | 56% | 30% | 0% | 7% | 7% |
| Batter Ahead | 40% | 47% | 4% | 1% | 8% |
| Even | 47% | 26% | 0% | 6% | 21% |
| Pitcher Ahead | 39% | 25% | 1% | 1% | 34% |
| Two Strikes | 37% | 21% | 1% | 1% | 39% |
| RHH | Four-Seam | Cutter | Slider | Curve | Split |
| All Counts | 41% | 26% | 25% | 0% | 8% |
| First Pitch | 45% | 29% | 26% | 0% | 0% |
| Batter Ahead | 33% | 47% | 19% | 0% | 1% |
| Even | 43% | 28% | 25% | 0% | 5% |
| Pitcher Ahead | 42% | 15% | 28% | 1% | 14% |
| Two Strikes | 38% | 16% | 26% | 0% | 21% |
This has given Eovaldi a different look on the mound. While he was mostly a one-note pitcher early in his career, relying very heavily on the fastball, he’s now comfortable going to his cutter, throwing it more often than his fastball this season when behind in the count. He now will throw any of his pitches at two strikes against righties and all but the slider against lefties. His two nine-strikeout games this year match the total of nine-strikeout games he’d recorded before 2018.
The Red Sox aren’t expecting the world from Eovaldi, just some additional stability at the back of the rotation with Steven Wright. Even Eovaldi at his worst has generally at least been a suitable fourth or fifth starter, so Boston doesn’t even really need him to hit his upside for this trade to work out. One of the AL East teams will likely win 100 games and have to play that one-game Wild Card round. Obviously, Boston would prefer not to be that team.
The Rays pick up left-handed pitcher Jalen Beeks, who was a bit risky for the Red Sox to count as depth right now, especially after very weak outings against the decidedly non-scary Tigers and Rangers. Throwing four good but not plus pitches, Beeks has never been a favorite of prospect-hunters, but he’s gotten results all through the minors, his K/9 improving from 6.2 to 7.5 to 9.6 to 12.1 in 2018 with a general decrease in walk rate. He may not have that killer outpitch in the majors, but for a team with the opportunity to absorb some risk, I think you have to look at any young pitcher who succeeds at Triple-A, whether or not you think he can get over that final wall. Beeks may not have a very high upside, but the Rays will absolutely take a mid-rotation, inexpensive starter and they have a good track record with pitchers like this.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Do the Rays also get an advance copy of The Beeks Report?
Dave Dombrowski being Dave Dombrowski.
It is almost impossible to imagine that 6 years of Beeks won’t be worth significantly more than 50 innings of Eovaldi. But they’ll be better in 2018.
Baseless conclusions are baseless.
Beeks has been good in the minors, but he still has no standout pitches and may very well turn out to be AAAA. The Red Sox add much needed pitching depth during a playoff run, for a guy from whom nobody ever expected anything. This is a fine trade, and it’s lazy to characterize it as a Dombrowski, mortgage-the-future special.
Also, big market teams being big market teams.
When you’re the Rays you need your prospects to produce, because you can’t afford to buy wins. Even the mediocre ones provide you vital cost-controlled depth.
When you’re the Red Sox you only really care about prospects that are potential stars. The low and mid-ceiling guys are more valuable as trade chips because they are always going to be more of them.
The baseball people kept saying “Ken Phelps, Ken Phelps”
Sure, he probably will be. But value is relative. A 1st place team at the trade deadline values a win this year a lot higher than a win in future years. Plus the Sox need those wins to come with as little salary attached as possible, so that bumps up Eovaldi’s value to them as well.
Good trade for both sides. Eovaldi is an upgrade and the team will benefit from the additional depth. Beeks doesn’t seem ready to contribute to a winner, but he was very good in AAA this year and a possible back-end starter and likely middle reliever is a fair price for a rental of a current back-end starter.
From the Rays’ perspective, this was great management. For less than $4 million, they bought a 24 year old pitcher with a sub-3 ERA and xFIP in AAA and 117 Ks in 87.1 IP (not to mention positive on-field contribution from Eovaldi).
RE: “Much needed depth”
Pitching is always helpful and I like Eovaldi but the Red Sox are going to the playoffs no ifs ands or buts. Eovaldi *might* prove to be the piece that keeps them away from a home play-in game with Seattle or Oakland which would feature Chris Sale. That feels like his only value to Boston and I don’t know how much value that really is. Maybe he gets a couple of postseason starts though and is significantly better than Wright or Pomeranz would have been in that scenario. This feels a little reckless to me when acquiring a nowhere close to elite rental for a team as good as the Red Sox.
This was supposed to be in response to Chris K.
Being able to start Sale on the first game of the division round has value, and even with Sale on the mound at Fenway, either Seattle or Oakland could still win. Avoiding the play-in has value. OTOH, 6 years of a number 5 starter has a LOT of cash value, on the third hand, flags fly forever.
It feels to me like a very Dombrowski move, but Henry and the rest of the ownership group presumably knew what they were getting when the hired Dombrowski, and it being a Dombrowski move doesn’t make it the wrong move.
The Sox badly needed to replace Pomeranz, a left handed starter obviously gone lame, with a right handed starter who could be rented for an AAAA lefty, and who may be an important bullpen addition in October. It will play like it plays. Dombroski is pushing on a string with what he has to work with and doing that creditably.
I get the argument, but I think Eovaldi is an upgrade over the backend starters and could be useful playoff piece out of the bullpen as well. Plus, for the reason Mr. Lampert explained below, there is substantial value to having Sale available for two ALDS games. To me that’s a lot of value for a guy who has to develop pinpoint control just to turn into a destitute man’s Mark Buerhle.
Mark Buerhle put up 50 WAR and 15 straight seasons of 30+ starts. He was pretty good.
He did say destitute man’s Mark Buehrle, who is presumably much worse than Buehrle. Poor man’s Kirk Rueter? Jharel Cotton who got a cost-of-living raise at work?
At a minimum, even if you clinch the division by September 1 (or maybe even especially), you still need to pitch someone in the remaining games and be able to get through without blowing up your bullpen every fifth day. Based on early returns, Beeks can’t do that this year.
The only risk to the Red Sox is that Beeks becomes a 2.5 WAR or better starter. Anything less and that’s someone the Red Sox can buy in any given year. To phrase it differently, a pre-arbitration 1 WAR reliever or 2 WAR starter is much more valuable to the Rays than the Red Sox. The Red Sox could sign a veteran for $2 or $3 million to fill that role. I’m a Pirates fan- if the Pirates made this trade, I’d probably be pissed, but that’s because someone with several years of pre-arb control like Beeks is way more important to them. It’s not like he’s a top prospect- the Red Sox either keep those guys or use them to get elite players (Sale).
The other side is that if it looks like Eovaldi can become a quality starter next year and the Red Sox want to sign him, they have two advantages- 1) they’ll have the scouting edge to know if it’s real and 2) they’ll have familiarity on their side.
Dave Dombrowski absolutely trades for players at 10 AM. I bet he doesn’t even need his morning coffee to start dealing.
Love it. As an early riser, it kills me that nothing happens in baseball before noon, if I’m lucky. It’s the new market inefficiency! Trade negotiations while others are drowsy!
(After dreaming of trades) Dipoto awakes and makes deals w/o even wiping the sleep outta his eyes.
I remember being so angry when the Yankees gave up Martin Prado for Eovaldi in the hopes that he could turn into a number 2 starter and then he was just kind of bleh until he blew up his arm. In retrospect I was vastly overvaluing Martin Prado.
While it’s hard to question getting an actual prospect back for a #4 rental starter, I wonder a little bit about the Rays and what they think their timeline is. The Red Sox have their whole team together through 2019 and the Yankees aren’t going anywhere. Beeks will probably be ready in 2019. Adames and McKay too, and Jesus Sanchez shortly after that. Banda and Honeywell will probably need some recovery time. And the Rays’ BaseRuns record is 7 games better than their actual record.
Add it all up, and I think the Rays have a real shot at returning to being a contender in 2020, around the same time the Jays’ guys graduate and the Red Sox have to choose between spending a billion dollars letting their team go. But then the tough questions start in, with some of their current players running out of team control in 2020 or 2021 (Archer, Duffy, Cron). Do they keep trying to stay ahead of the curve in 2020 and deal them away then? Because if so, they might as well try and get some other pieces that will come up around 2020ish now, while each of those players have lots of team control.
Nasty Nate is a good #4 starter with the stuff that plays up in the bullpen. Nice luxury item for the Sox; As a Yankee fan I prefer Britton to Nate come playoff time, but only because I expect the Yankees to add to the top half of the rotation rather than the bottom. (Knowing there is a dearth of ‘top end’ starters…)
Right now, choosing between CC and Gray as playoff SP3 is like that old wisdom about having two quarterbacks… Reckon adding Eovaldi would be like having three quarterbacks! Whereas, assuming Price can feel his fingers, Sale/Porcello/Price is your obvious Boston power trio, with Pomeranz/Eovaldi for depth/bullpen roles.
Is there any likelihood that Beeks’s stuff “plays up” as a multi-inning reliever. Rays basically have Archer and Snell and three days of bullpen.
Adding right handed pitching depth was a priority for the Sox. Beeks, while intriguing given his unbroken ascending trajectory, seems like an interchangeable part. This seems like it was a good trade for both sides, given their current and future needs. Win-win.