Sabathia Returns to the Yankees
The New York Yankees and CC Sabathia reached an Election Night agreement on a one-year, $8 million contract that keeps the big lefty in the middle of the rotation for another year.
All the Yankees hoped Sabathia would do for the team in 2018 was eat 150-175 innings respectably and cut off the downside risk of the team’s rotation so they wouldn’t have to cross the luxury-tax threshold with a free-agent acquisition. That’s precisely what Sabathia did, his late-career mini-renaissance continuing to the tune of a 3.65 ERA and 8.2 K/9 — his most in a healthy season since 2012, the tail end of his ace years.
There’s no question that Sabathia’s day at the top of the rotation has long since turned to night, but there’s little reason to think he can’t continue to do what he’s been doing for the last few years. Surgery on his knee last month was only a minor one and shouldn’t affect his availability.
Fittingly for someone wearing the same uniform as Mariano Rivera, Sabathia pulled his career off the brink in 2014-15 with the addition of a cutter, a pitch initially taught to him by Andy Pettitte in 2014. It essentially replaced his fastball, a pitch that went from touching 95 in his prime to around 90 in recent years. The cutter hasn’t gotten Mariano-esque results, necessarily — he’s allowed a .238 batting average and .382 slugging percentage on the pitch since 2016 — but it gives him a good complement to his slider, which has always been his key pitch.
I suspect that this shuts the almost closed door on Sonny Gray as a Yankee, whether the team can convince someone to take him in a trade or not. The team’s been vocal about acquiring starters come hell or high water this offseason, and they have likely meant something more ambitious than Sabathia on a cheap deal. Counting Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka, as well, that gives the Yankees three starters written in ink — and even if the team strikes out on their offseason targets, I can’t imagine that Gray is in front of Chance Adams, Domingo German, Justus Sheffield, and Johnny Lasagna (or possibly even any of them). Obviously, any of these pitchers could exit via trade, but the likely result of that trade would be someone whom the team likes a lot better.
What’s interesting me is how close Sabathia can get to 300 wins. If he stays effective for a couple years, he probably retires with a WAR around 70 and around 270-280 wins. That win ceiling may not be as limited as one would think: he’s soft-tossing his way to incredibly low exit velocity — fifth-best in baseball in 2018, following up ranking ninth and third the previous two seasons — so maybe can be Really Big Jamie Moyer.
| Year | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 8 | 7 | 4.20 | 25 | 25 | 133.0 | 133 | 62 | 19 | 45 | 115 | 103 | 1.9 |
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
i doubt he’ll get to 300, as he has apparently announced 2019 will be his last season in the bigs: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/yankees-resign-cc-sabathia-one-year.html
Would think for the Yankees, Jordan Montgomery should be back from TJ some point midseason. So yet another thing against Sonny Gray.
Cashman just reiterated this week regarding Gray: “We are going to move him if we get the right deal because I don’t think it is going to work out in The Bronx. I don’t feel like we can go through the same exercise and expect different results,” Cashman said to Joel Sherman. “There are enough teams that think highly enough of him, that are interested.”
If they can get a mini bidding war going and get something meaningful for him, then great. But dumping him for nothing would be foolish when at the worst he can be a decent arm out the pen/innings eater in blowouts/6th or 7th starter (with more upside than anyone who would typically fill those roles).
One thing regarding Sabathia and the last paragraph- he said last night he plans on 2019 being his final year. So unless he has a 23 win season, he’s not getting to 270 wins. He needs 2.2 WAR to get to 70 fWAR. He did have 2.5 last year, so he’s got a shot at that one realistically.
260 wins and 3000 k’s- should be enough for the HOF you would think.
This is going to be a really fascinating and potentially ugly debate, because there just aren’t many pitchers currently playing (even recently playing!) who compares well to the Maddux/Johnson/Pedro troika, the greats of yesteryear like Spahn, or even guys who have had a tough time getting in like Mussina or Kevin Brown. At least in terms of career numbers.
Clayton Kershaw is the best bet to end up in the exalted group if his back holds up. I think Sabathia and Verlander probably should get in, as players with excellent peaks that lasted for quite a while. In terms of younger pitchers, they just aren’t debuting early enough because they need more development time. This is something we need to think about.
Mussina will get in eventually, I would think. Brown likely won’t, perhaps because of his mention in the Mitchell Report as much as anything.
I do believe CC will make it, and it doesn’t seem like he should be a borderline candidate at that. Verlander is a shoo-in, as is Kershaw.
So Sabathia has 247 wins right now. Kershaw sits at 31 years old next opening day and at 153 wins (94 behind Sabathia). For Kershaw to match Sabathia even where he is right now- he’d have to average over next 7 years about 13.5 wins per year. Which sounds great, but consider that he’s only averaged a hair over 15 wins over the last 7 years. And this is in an era where starters don’t get the wins they used to. Dodgers starters last year got only 57 wins out of the 92 the Dodgers won. If I were a betting man, I’d be putting money on Kershaw not even beating Sabathia, let alone getting close at all to 300.
Yeah, if you’re just going by wins. Kershaw has more Cy Young awards, more ASG appearances, and would catch up to Sabathia in K’s in about four years once Sabathia retires if he continues averaging about 1 strikeout per inning…all despite having pitched in 1200 fewer innings. My favorite fun fact in this vein: Clayton Kershaw’s ERA over his career is 2.39. CC Sabathia has never had a *single season* with an ERA less than 2.39.
And that’s before we get to advanced metrics (which are certainly much better than all the metrics I listed before), which hopefully some voters do use–he’s like 6 fWAR behind Sabathia right now.
So yeah, I do think that if both Kershaw and Sabathia retired today, Kershaw would have both the stronger case for the HoF and approximately a co-equal chance of actually being elected. I think voters want to recognize utter dominance as well as career norms.
I think both would get in easily……. Both are going to be easy 1st ballot type HOF’ers I believe.
AS far as your point on innings needed for the K’s- you are right that the gap is 1200 right now. BUT with 4 more years- that gap would be down to about 400
And I think a fair point- if Kershaw has work to do to pass Sabathia- which he does- He’s got a whole lot more work to do to get into the group with Maddux and Johnson (sorry, Pedro isn’t in that group at all- not enough longevity- 1000 fewer innings than Johnson- who had 850 fewer than Maddux). The Pedro one is interesting. Kershaw needs about 800 innings to match him. If injuries limit him quite a bit here- no lock he even beats Pedro in innings.
I agree with most of what you’re saying, but I think you’re being unfair regarding Kershaw’s health. Even in relatively limited years, he’s is averaging 160+ IP over the last three seasons, and he’s not exactly on the brink of retirement.
Here’s the 3 options for him-
1- he regains his health totally and goes back to averaging 180+ innings a year.
2- he stays where he is(last 3 years he’s got 485 innings so about 162 innings per year)
3- he gets even more injury prone
I don’t know how realistic 1 is any longer. Best case is #2, but would it be a surprise if it’s #3?
He’s already in the top 400 in innings pitched (#396). By end of 2019 if he throws 162 again- he’d be up to #325- right around Roy Oswalt. 2 years- another 162 innings- and he’s up to #270. Right around guys like Ron Guidry and Bruce Hurst.
And i think the question you have to ask- is he going to be one that hangs around?
I think due to the nature of his injury, which appears chronic, and the causation of it likely being at least partially due to his delivery, that you’re right. It’s more likely that his health continues to diminish rather than he returns to full health.
That said, I think you’re writing off the possibility of a return to health too easily. He is still a relatively young man. While it may not be the most likely scenario, it is not outside of the realm of reasonable outcomes. But, maybe I’m just being sentimental.
It would be great for baseball to see classic Kershaw again. But being realistic, I just don’t see that in the cards.
I think option 1 of what I had where he gets back his health totally might be 10%. I think option 3 though is at least 10%- and that might be optimistic. Odds are he’ll remain in this reduced capacity but still able to give you 160-180 innings and 24-28 starts.
I would reply on your last point about the younger pitchers- seemingly most every single young pitcher misses a year due to TJ surgery now. Costing them not only that year- but then they’re limited after that.
He also said 2018 was his final year, unless the Yankees won the World Series (they didn’t).
I thought he said 2018 was his final year IF the Yankees won the World Series? My guess would be he’s not ignorant of where he stands with career milestones. If I needed 14 strikeouts to clear a milestone like 3000 and 4 wins to clear 250, I’d probably come back for 8 MM too. Once he clears those, his traditional case really comes into focus – and with 60+ bWAR, 65+ fWAR, 70~ RA9-WAR, a Cy Young, a title, his entire case becomes fairly strong. He’ll face an uphill battle, I think, but probably get in at some point.
I’m trying to think if there are any really big pitchers that have gone into their 40s still in the big leagues, can someone help me out?
Haha, besides the jovial hippopotamus recently of the Texas Rangers to whom I am sure you are referring, your comment reminded me that David Wells also pitched into his 40s. I can’t think of any others after that.
i recall seeing a 57 year old Jamie Moyer in a spring training game a few years ago.
I left Moyer off because I thought we were talking about fat guys. He certainly pitched for damn ever. If non-fat guys count, then there were a whole bunch I can think of: Hoyt Wilhelm pitched until he was 50(!). Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens, Dennis Eckersley, Steve Carlton, Bert Blyleven all into their 40s. Satchel Paige didn’t even get to play in the majors until he was over 40.
aye i realized after i commented that the OP specifically asked about fat guys
seriously though moyer was OLD. i think he was 47 or 48 before he finally quit
actually think Moyer was 49 when he quit.
While not on the level of a Sabathia or Colon, Clemens certainly wasn’t thin at the end.
Don’t forget the knuckleballers! RA Dickey pitched in 2017 (his age 42 season) and Tim Wakefield pitched in 2011 (his age 44 season)
Randy Johnson says hi. So does Bartolo Colon.
it’s funny there’s 2 that you think of pitching really long- Livan Hernandez, Fernando Valenzuela coming to mind- but when you look- they lasted thru 37/38 years old only.
Found one big guy- Rick Reushel. He even had a 17-8 2.94 ERA year in his age 40 season. 2.4 fWAR year.
Tiant
CC gave up the bottle as well
likely that has had a positive effect on his career and good for him and everyone!
Sabathia strikes me as a a prime candidate for the wheels to very quickly come completely off. That’s not to say i expect it, but if he comes out next season and is 100% done, it wouldn’t surprise me.
still, 1 year at $8M is a mistake you can live with if that happens. hopefully he can pull ~150 innings with an era around 4.
last 4 years, he’s averaging 29 starts a year and 162 innings. With an ERA of about 4. Last 3 years his ERA is 3.76.
He’s only had 1 year of his career where he had fewer than 27 starts- in 2014 where he made 8.
i realize all the recent history. still, big man’s 38 and his knee isn’t getting any better. and i’m not sure i’ll ever have supreme confidence in the ability to induce poor contact regardless of how many years he keeps it up.
again, i’m not saying i’m predicting it, but if he fell off a cliff i wouldn’t be shocked at all.
I’d say the exact opposite given that he’s learned to pitch with greatly diminished stuff. I’d expect a more graceful decline. I wonder if there is some study done, but I would think the ones who lose it abruptly are those that really rely on velocity.
Sabathia’s made noise about retiring, both before 2018 and during 2017, so at this point, I’m working on the assumption that it’s kind of a fluid thing.
An interesting thing I should study – I have a model for when players decide to retire, based on a blend of performance, performance relative to prime, years used as a reserve, proximity to round-number milestones (so I don’t have guys retiring with 399 home runs), and age. But what I never really looked at as a variable was team success; one of the reasons Sabathia decided not to retire in the past has been “unfinished business,” so it may be something interesting to look at more.
true.
What would be interesting with Sabathia looking at it- he crosses 250 wins next year, 3000 k’s next year. So the proximity to round numbers probably brought him back this year. Needing 4 wins and 14 k’s. He turns 39 in July. Would think for a lot of things on your model, it would indicate retirement after next year.