Shohei Ohtani to Be Posted
An early Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah everyone. The Nippon-Ham Fighters are reportedly going to post Shohei Ohtani.
Now there’s still an obstacle to be cleared.
The Fighters want the old posting fee of $20 million to be grandfathered into the arrangement, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported there is a “tentative agreement” in place between the MLB and NPB to do just that. Now, the MLBPA simply must sign off. That appears to be the final hurdle.
Wrote Sherman on Nov. 8:
Now that Ohtani took on a union-certified representative earlier this week – CAA – the Players Association can be confident that the player will know the union’s concerns and all of his options. Therefore, an expectation lingers that a pact will be finalized at some point in the near future that will permit Ohtani to become the most sought-after free agent of this offseason.
It seems like enough parties involved want to get this done so that it will get done, and Ohtani will become one of the most fascinating — and talented — free agents in MLB history.
Every team figures to be interested in making a bid. Because Ohtani would be arriving at age 23, he’ll be subject to international bonus-pool limits and will have to sign a minor-league contract. It appears Ohtani will be squandering hundreds of millions of dollars by not waiting two years to make this move, though many (including Dave Cameron) have wondered what’s would stop a club from quickly signing him to a lucrative extension?
The Associated Press reports that the Rangers have the most cash available to pursue Ohtani.
The Rangers can agree to a maximum $3,535,000 signing bonus from their pool that covers July 2 through next June 15, according to figures compiled by Major League Baseball and obtained by The Associated Press. New York can pay $3.25 million and the Twins $3,245,000.
Just three other teams can give him a seven-figure signing bonus: Pittsburgh ($2,266,750), Miami ($1.74 million) and Seattle ($1,570,500)….
Twelve teams are capped at $300,000 as penalties for exceeding their signing bonus pool under baseball’s previous collective bargaining agreement, which did not have a cap: Atlanta, the Chicago Cubs and White Sox, Cincinnati, Houston, Kansas City, the Los Angeles Dodgers, Oakland, St. Louis, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington.
Of course, Ohtani will likely have considerations beyond the bonus totals. That means teams will have to be creative in how they sell their club as the best fit beyond the initial dollars they can pay him. Ohtani is going to be less like a typical big-name free agent and more like a five-star college recruit.
This is going to be fascinating courtship to follow beyond Ohtani’s unique dual talents.
And it looks like it’s going to happen.
A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.
I haven’t been this excited for an offseason storyline in a long, LONG time. Bring on Shohei-mania!!
Fighters, not Ham Fighters. But thanks for spelling his name the right way, with an H.
He spells it ??.
Edit: Japanese characters apparently don’t work here. Joke ruined. Darn.
Hey, no sarcasm intended! I bought a jersey from the stadium in Sapporo this year and they spell it with an H. But everyone in the states thinks it’s a knockoff.
Would the ham fighters get a percentage of Ohtani’s salary? I remember this being a part of the old posting system. Wouldn’t Ohtani be playing for the league minimum, like any other intl signing?
Any team that wants to negotiate with Ohtani must provide a non-refundable $20 million to Nippon Ham.
They’re about to make half a billion dollars. They’re fine.
The $20 million is only paid by the team that gets him
You have to pay the $20 million to negotiate. Do you get it back if he signs somewhere else?
I checked, this is the case, I was wrong. I thought since the money was provided up-front that it was not returned.
For some reason, I thought it was $20 million for three teams who get to formally negotiate with him (he and his reps only get to formally negotiate with three). But the $20 million for one team makes more sense since that’s how the old posting fee worked (only high bidder had to pay).
Edit: Looked it up. Jeremy is right. He can negotiate with all teams, winner pays the fee.
“The maximum release fee that Japanese clubs can set is $20 million, although it can be considerably lower as well. Any Major League club that is willing to meet the designated release fee can negotiate with the player, but only the club with which the player signs must pay that release fee. If no agreement is reached, no club pays the release fee and the player returns to his NPB club for the coming season.”
http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/japanese-posting-system
“Any team that wants to negotiate with Ohtani must provide a non-refundable $20 million to Nippon Ham.
They’re about to make half a billion dollars. They’re fine.”
This is the very ham they are sworn to fight.
Is there a specific date/moratorium of when Otani can sign?
A procedural question; does every team that wants to negotiate have to pay $20M non refundable? So if 30 teams want a chance to sign him they all pay $20M or do they post and only the winner forfeits the $20M?
Only the winner has to pay the $20 million.
I’m kind of puzzled why so many people think teams could make $600m ($20m x 30 teams) when they post players. It doesn’t make any sense
Dear Nick Saban,
We’re very interested in this “bagman” concept we’ve heard so much about. We’d love to meet with you and discuss how you’ve perfected this system. And if you’re not interested, we totally understand, but would appreciate Urban Meyer’s phone number. Thanks in advance!
Yours in under-the-table dealings,
~ rando MLB GM
There is an amazing report on this at (of all places) sbnation.com. I don’t think you could do this internationally without breaking a bunch of really serious laws.
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2014/4/10/5594348/college-football-bag-man-interview
Let’s think through this. He probably wants some combination of good marketing potential, a signing bonus, large Japanese-American population, a chance to win, and fit with the team’s coaching staff (which we can’t possibly know), and willingness to tear up the contract if he does well (again, we can’t know that in advance, but it is probably way more important than the signing bonus). We have no idea which factors are most important. With that in mind, here is uninformed but logical speculation.
-Rangers, Yankees, and Twins can give him the highest signing bonus. Of those, the Yankees offer the best market for endorsements, but the Rangers might already have some history with the Japanese market because of Darvish.
-Seattle can offer a decent signing bonus, has one of the largest Japanese-American populations in the US, and has some history with the Japanese market (Nintendo used to own the Mariners, Ichiro played there).
-The LA Dodgers play in a huge market, nearly won the World Series, and have a largest Japanese-American population. LA Angels have something similar, minus the chance for instant contention but plus Mike Trout (who may or may not be a draw for him). The Giants’ success is more distant, but has similar benefits to LA. All three are in the penalty box for international signing bonuses (which may or may not matter).
-The Nationals and Cubs play in big markets with lots of amenities and have a shot at a ring. The Cubs can rightfully pitch Ohtani as the missing piece in the rotation. The Nationals can pitch him as making up the best rotation in MLB (take that, Cleveland!). Neither can offer a large signing bonus because they are in the penalty box for international signings, which may or may not be important. Boston and Houston are similar–big market, chance to win now, low signing bonus.
-Several teams can only offer small signing bonuses and also have other factors working against them (small metro area, new coaching staff, not likely to win soon, some dysfunction with pitchers and injuries, weird pitching environment). These include Toronto, Cleveland, Colorado, the Mets, Kansas City, Baltimore, the Reds, San Diego, and Detroit. We can probably rule those out, at least as much as possible in a totally unsettled situation like this.
My initial take on this, which is informed by absolutely nothing at all, would be:
Favorites: NYY, TEX, SEA, LAD
Has A Decent Shot: LAA, SF, MIN, CHI-Cubs, WAS, BOS, HOU
Maybe, OK Maybe Not: PHI, MIL, ATL, PIT, TBR, ARI, MIA, OAK, STL, CHI-WS
I Doubt It: TOR, CLE, COL, NYM, KC, CIN, SD, DET, BAL
FWIW, the Dodgers made an effort to sign Ohtani out of highschool and he almost did it, so he may have a pre-existing opinion of them that is stronger than other teams (though it could be either negative or positive after an unsuccessful negotiation).
The last thing I’d add is that there’s a benefit for a team that has a history of having accommodated Japanese-speaking players and non-English speaking players in general. This is something the Dodgers DO excel at and so do a few other teams, like the Mariners and the Yankees. Remember that their unfamiliarity with accommodating a non-English speaking player was considered a major challenge in the Darvish negotiations with the Rangers, though they did a pretty good job in the end.
I think the advantage of the teams you list as the favorites is actually collectively even higher than you estimate for these reasons.
I agree entirely. I wonder if I unconsciously rated them higher for that reason, even if I didn’t mention it.
I believe the Ohtani decision to stay in Japan instead of LA was related more to staying in Japan than anything wrong with the Dodgers, but it would have been a very different management team.
True though they used similar folks. They sent a dozen people to watch him in August. The first time they put Tommy Lasorda in his kitchen.
The Dodgers have an opening for a right handed left fielder too.
does Kike Hernandez no longer exist?
The guy with the 92 wRC+ and whose value mostly comes from being a defensive super-sub? He exists.
But I sincerely doubt they’ll play Ohtani anywhere he has to throw. They’d put him at first and move Bellinger to left instead.
Kike’s pretty limited and has no business ever batting against a right handed pitcher ever.
Oh, I also forgot the batting thing. That will probably be a prerequisite to get into the negotiations, although it’s not clear whether he’s prefer an NL team (where has to bat a little) or an AL team (which can DH him some days).
That variable fascinates me, if it really is a major factor for him. I have no idea where teams would come out on that, though.
Take the Yankees, for example. It seems unclear that Ohtani would be better than any of Gardner, Hicks, and Judge in the OF, Bird at 1B or whoever they end up DH-ing. Let’s say for the sake of argument, that your internal projections are that he would be a weaker hitter/fielder than whoever he would displace. If he’s adamant that he wants to play the field when he’s not pitching, what do you do? Do you accept that you’re giving back some value because you have to sit (or not acquire) a better position player?
Even though I would personally be wary of using him in the field (mainly for injury/fatigue reasons), I think you have to agree to let him play the field if that is the difference between getting him or not. Even if he gives back some of the value, having a #1/#2 starter on a pre-arb deal (plus the posting fee and bonus) has to be worth it. You also might get lucky and his hitting translates well enough that it’s not much of an issue.
Except…the dodgers can’t exceed a bonus of 300k. I doubt that Otani is going to become ‘property’ of the dodgers for 300k for 6+ years.
This also rules out CHI C, HOU, SF and the others mentioned above. Sure, money isn’t EVERYTHING to Otani, but if you think he’s a 5 WAR player for 5 years, and there is a tax on overages to the signing bonus limit, how much do you throw at him? 10Mil? 20Mil? $40 or 50mil? Exceeding the limit for this talent IS going to happen, and quite significantly so.
There’s no longer a tax on overages to the signing limit: you simply cannot exceed it. This was changed in the new CBA last December.
Which means that other teams, while they have more money, don’t have significantly more money, only a few million.
If he comes over this year, regardless of what team he goes to, hes going to get a miniscule amount of money for his value. That’s why there’s so much emphasis on the other factors: He’s leaving 200 million on the table by not waiting a year, he’s unlikely to select his 4th choice because they can give him 3m instead of 300k.
And also why there’s so much emphasis on endorsements and media value, as he can make a lot more via endorsements in a market where he will have an interested fanbase (LA, Sea, other team with a lot of Asian-American fans) than any team can offer to pay him in signing bonus.
That’s also why there’s so much speculation about early extensions.
A few nitpicks: he’s 23, so wouldn’t he have to wait 2 years (although didn’t do the birthday calcs)? And, if he’s good, I bet he signs a mega-extension in 2 years that gets him w/in 50% of his max earnings right now. Further, if he proves himself for 2 years in MLB, there will be less performance risk, so he should be “worth” more (based on lower risk profile).
Not that he’ll ever come out ahead on money, but I don’t think, all things considered, he’s leaving 200 million on the table. Half of that is still a lot of money.
yeah he would be able to negotiate a free agent contract if he waited 1 year, his birthday is coming up.
mikejunt is right on this. This is essentially a difference between $300K and $3 million, and it could go down if the Dodgers trade for a bunch of international bonus slots.
How the early extension is handled is going to be way more money than that, and is also impossible for us to know. So all this speculation could go up in smoke if, say, the Brewers come up with a really interesting proposal…
…but based on what we know, I don’t think Brewers fans should get their hopes up.
Teams in the the penalty, so to speak, can not exceed $300K per signing. So the amount a team has available is irrelevant.
The Yankees have had recent success with Japanese players including Hideki Matsui, and Tanaka. They also had Hiroki Kuroda and Ichiro for several years as well.
And Irabu and Igawa too!
Toronto could try saying “Trump isn’t in charge of this country and we have a large Japanese population. Might do the trick.
I know teams are allowed to trade to increase their cap (one article says it’s as much as 75% of their initial amount). I’m assuming the numbers above don’t include that (unless if they’re already dealt the amounts). So if Texas hasn’t actually traded for any space yet, they could potentially increase that by as much as another 3.5M if someone else was willing to trade them the cap room. Of course, you could potentially see the same for even the teams that have used up there space. So while Toronto (or whoeveer) maybe only have 50k left, if they haven’t traded for any space yet, they could in theory give a prospect to the White Sox to buy 3.5M in cap space and at least be able to give a somewhat respectable offer.
I guess? But it goes back to the point of whether signing money really matters. If Ohtani doesn’t care, why trade assets to give him more money that he doesn’t care about anyways? Presumably the extension (whenever it happens) will give him enough for a lifetime anyhow.
We don’t know how much money matters, but to me an argument that it doesn’t matter because he was not willing to wait two years to cash in on a big contract is weak. I think American players are encouraged by the Players’ Association and the culture to prioritize money over all other considerations. I think when a player takes actions that show he isn’t following that mold there is a knee-jerk reaction to wonder whether money “doesn’t matter”. It’s a possibility, but much more reasonable is that money falls somewhere else in the list of priorities for that player, but almost certainly not at the very bottom (“doesn’t matter”).
Even if he is willing to forego a possible windfall two years down the road to chase his dream immediately that doesn’t necessarily mean money doesn’t matter. It might just mean that pursuing his dream right now is something he’s willing to pay money, or the opportunity/expectation of money, for.
Also, consider that Ohtani had a salary of about $2.4 million last year in Japan. Taking a pay cut to $500,000 is possibly an issue from a purely a practical and financial standpoint, unless he’s been preparing for it. A significant signing bonus (say, $3+ million) erases that issue. His current and potential endorsement deals would affect this line of reasoning, however, and I have no idea how they would change.
It seems clear that what he most wants is to succeed in the major leagues, to prove himself. If he reaches his goal, after 3 years he will be making as much or more money through arbitration than he would be making in Japan, and after 6 he could sign a big free agent deal at the age of 29 that he feels comfortable with. It must be a special pressure to sign a huge deal without having a good idea of whether you can live up to it or not. This is another factor that could explain Ohtani’s decision without invoking “money doesn’t matter”.
My personal opinion is that money probably does matter to him. He just prioritized his career ambitions to play in the majors over the future expectation of more money. But he will probably look for a beneficial financial situation now that that decision has been made. Of course the wild card is what else does he consider a major consideration in pursuing his ambitions? Does he, for some reason, want a small market or a large market? Does he want to be able to pitch and hit? Does he want a franchise famous in Japan? Does he want to be on a team he thinks will vie for World Series titles? These are all considerations that exist for any player, and we never know which ones a player cares about or what he’s willing to pay for them. I think most likely, unless the team is in a unique position, it’s going to be hard for a team that offers him a $300,000 signing bonus to compete with one that offers him $3,000,000. We will soon get an idea, I guess.
This is a good point. If it looks like you have a shot, you could trade for more slots from a team that has no chance for one reason or another (or up to $300K if you’re in the penalty box).
I’m guessing Ohtani will want to bat. Is there any way he can work some sort of clause into his contract that stipulates playing time or will that have to be arranged informally?
I don’t think you can do that for a rookie contract. Pretty sure it has to be done informally in all cases.
He will be signing a standard form contract. There will be zero causes specifically negotiated for him.
How on earth do you know that?
Because it’s been reported that’s what MLB will require under the current CBA: that Ohtani’s deal is a standard form minor league contract, consistent with the contract that’s signed by all under 25 international free agents.
Serious question- given the typical routine of a starting pitcher and the regimented way most teams like to handle off days, would Otani really be able play outfield more than once or twice a week? Or might a team consider him as a starting outfielder and use him out of the bullpen? Seems like a way to better use his talents. In the NL, he could start in the OF, pitch the 7th while the pinch hitter plays OF for an inning, and then go back to the OF.
Also, looking at his JPPL stats, he strikes out a lot. Obviously he was very young for the league, but it’s something to keep an eye on.
The only real two-way example we have is Babe Ruth in 1918-1919 – coincidentally same age as Otani.
1917 – Pitched 40 games (326 IP)- pinch hit an additional 12
1918 – Pitched 20 games (166 IP)- played OF an additional 75
1919 – Pitched 17 games (133 IP)- played OF an additional 110
Course we don’t do complete games anymore – but I agree that true long relief would be the only way he is likely to maximize both pitching innings and games at position.
I also suspect that like Ruth, he won’t be a two-way player for long. One of his skills will translate better and he’ll have to choose to concentrate. And afaik he’s a bat-first position player – not a defensive utility type where starting for 6 and switching after – with more mid/late game work on off-days would work well
How does that avoid him exiting the game?
Relievers don’t have to exit the game, do they? They just do so because they can’t bat or field.
I’ve followed Japanese news sites pretty closely, and this is what I’ve learned.
1) Ohtani really does not care about money. His salary from the current club goes to his parents, and he receives ~$1,000 a month from them. Then he does not even use it all, as he lives in a dorm and only cares about baseball (no parties). He also has lots of endorsement deals in Japan, and his pictures are all over Japan.
2) What Ohtani cares most about is big challenge. The bigger that challenge, the better. So, he absolutely values opportunity to both pitch and hit. Also, although Ohtani admires Yu Darvish (he wore number 11 after him and they trained with him last spring), some folks in Japan think he might prefer a club that does not have another Japanese player (because it will impose a bigger challenge). Along the same line, some speculate he might refer a fringe contender, rather than an elite ball club, because, if he makes the difference and lead the team to the playoffs, that would be a huge accomplishment. I have no idea whether this is true.
3) Ohtani is a huge fan of Harper, and watches Harper hit over and over again. Whether Ohtani prefers t play with Harper or against him, I don’t know.
4) There is a former Dodgers scout (sorry, forgot the name) who made a very good connection to Ohtani when he was considering coming to the US right after high school. This scout currently works for AZ, so some think the D Backs have an edge. Again, I have no idea whether this is true.
All interesting things, but the information in them needs to be considered while remembering that the media like to create stories. I don’t know if it’s true or not, but from what I have heard he is pretty private. A star who is private is particularly susceptible to wild public speculation and media narratives.
I can’t help but believe if that he’s willing to pass up the 100s of millions of dollars (still a bit of a guess, I suppose) in a few years by coming here early, the 3 million-ish difference in bonus is entirely inconsequential.
yeah, what this guy said.
If Ohtani is willing to forego a couple hundred million dollars to pitch in the US in 2018, why do we assume the difference between $3,000,000 and $300,000 matters to him at all? If he is sacrificing that kind of income to pitch in the US, I don’t see how another 2.7 million will greatly affect his decision. Assuming he is successful he could recoup that money in any market, particularly the larger markets, in endorsements fairly quickly.
“Everyone” except Fighters fans and NPB. As a fan of MLB I’m excited, but a thought for the other side?
Before Ichiro, Japanese players were considered unpatriotic if they went to MLB. Ichiro and the dozens of media members who followed him changed that–NPB fans understand the best players should play at the best level. Obviously Fighters fans will be sad but so they’ll still root for him. And it’s not like the Jackie Robinson situation, where the Dodgers and other early signers of black players didn’t even pay the Negro Leagues teams a posting fee.
Yay, the rich will get richer while the have nots continue to, well, have not.
It’s so much fun to be a fan of a team that has no chance for players like this
Dude, this is almost literally the exact opposite scenario. The current difference between the largest (TEX) and smallest (CLE & COL) signing bonus allowed is only $3.525 million.
Now lets talk about what is really important. Is he going to be two players in fantasy?
I am not sure he is going to an NL team. He will have to DH. Playing the field, hitting, and pitching is too much wear and tear on the body.
Yeah, I agree. I think he has a better opportunity to pursue both hitting and pitching in the AL. But we really don’t know how important that is to him just like we don’t know how much money is important. Maybe he goes to an NL team anyway for some other reason.
Keep in mind, pitchers rarely, if ever, bat in the AL. An AL team is spending a lot of resources to cover the DH position. AL teams are constructed accordingly. Pick your favorite AL team and look at who the current player and or players that get the bulk of play at DH. Many teams use the DH to give good offensive players a day off in the field. AL teams are constructed accordingly. Not to mention sitting a player a few times a week could pose internal problems. And it would be hard to consistently platoon an Ohtani, because he can really only play the field on specific days.
In the NL Ohtani is guaranteed to hit every 5th day. Throw in late game switch’s and a few innings in the field late in games. A few starts every week or two. The potential to move from the mound to the field, ala Travis Wood, and back to the mound. And to DH in AL parks. Granted, some of this could apply in the AL, but there is just way more flexibility in the NL game and how teams are constructed, for a player to play both ways.
You want Ohtani to hit less. Regardless of how AL teams treat their DHs, I’m pretty sure NL teams guard their outfield spots more jealously. According to Baseball Reference, Ohtani has played 8 games in the outfield since 2013, and those 8 were all in 2014. So Ohtani comes in late in games when they are behind? Basically, he is a pinch hitter who then might remain in the game for an inning or two. Does he just hit for the pitcher or do you hit him for your regular outfielder? If his bat is good enough to hit for a regular outfielder, isn’t it good enough to DH? Also, I really don’t know, but perhaps making throws from the outfield could interfere with a starting pitcher’s regular rest cycle. During pitching days, Ohtani gets 3 or 4 at bats and then he is removed for a relief pitcher and you lose his bat. The manager’s flexibility is limited.
If Ohtani is successful as a pitcher but not so much as a hitter, but is still better than other pitchers while hitting, than you are right, the NL is the place for him to be. But really, that adds such a small amount of marginal value to a team. If Ohtani succeeds in being a two-way player, which seems to be his dream, it will mean he is an asset as a pitcher and an asset as a hitter. If he has such success then he is most valuable in the AL where his bat can be put into the line-up more often and with more flexibility, and without him playing in the field.