Smoak ‘Em If You Got ‘Em
The Brewers have reached a one-year deal with first baseman Justin Smoak, according to multiple reports Thursday morning. The former Blue Jay will receive $4 million for the 2020 season with a club option worth $5.5 million. The option comes with a $1 million buyout, guaranteeing Smoak will at least $5 million from his new deal.
Milwaukee opened the 2019 season with an infield of Jesús Aguilar, Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw, and Orlando Arcia. Of that quartet, three are no longer in the organization. The fourth, Arcia, now seems ticketed for a utility role after failing, for the second straight season, to show any progress from his 2017 campaign. Milwaukee’s new middle infield of Keston Hiura (called up midseason) and Luis Urías (acquired from the Padres) are expected to anchor the key defensive positions for a decade, but the Brewers do not have equivalent talent ready to take over at first or third. Brice Turang and possibly Lucas Erceg may shake up the infield in coming seasons, but neither will help in 2020.
The signing of Eric Sogard took care of third base, but first base looked like a depth chart problem with Eric Thames’s 2020 option declined, and the team seemingly non-committal about the oft-threatened plan to move Ryan Braun there. Milwaukee recently signed Ryon Healy, but Healy is an underwhelming option as a starter and a better fit as a Wes Helms 1B/3B righty pinch-hitter role player. Smoak is coming off a weak .208/.342/.406 season, but with a wRC+ of 133 and 121 in the two season prior, he can serve as a stopgap with possible upside. Smoak’s a switch-hitter who does most of his damage as a lefty, and Miller Park is a good home for lefty sluggers, so it’s plausible to think he could have a bounce-back season and fill first for a year or two while the Brewers search for something better.
Sadly, this probably closes the book on a reunion with the always entertaining Thames. Even with an extra roster spot to play with, Smoak’s skillset likely has too much overlap with the burly first baseman, and if the Brewers go with a six-man bench, a defensive-minded outfielder is probably a better idea than carrying a spare lefty-hitting first baseman.
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | DR | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | .234 | .349 | .441 | 415 | 55 | 97 | 20 | 0 | 22 | 71 | 70 | 118 | 0 | 106 | 0 | 1.5 |
| 2021 | .228 | .336 | .418 | 364 | 45 | 83 | 18 | 0 | 17 | 57 | 57 | 97 | 0 | 97 | 0 | 0.8 |
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Justin Smoak can be quite productive when healthy, but what does this mean for Ryan Braun?
Platoon him with Yelich!
Would this actually work? Possibly make a DH platoon when in AL parks, and use Braun as a pinch-hitter for pitchers? They’ll figure something out.
Derek Jeter, here we come!
They said ‘someday you will find’
Though his platoon splits are not kind
When your heart’s on fire, you must realize,
Smoak gets RBIs.
True art
The Brewers haven’t found their starting 3b, right? It’d be weird if Sogard started at 3b. With Healy’s options, I assume he’s mostly in San Antonio AAA with some appearances in Milwaukee. But who knows with this Jackson Pollock-esque off-season.
Fortunately for them, they’re one of the only teams that can offer a starting slot at third base. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Todd Frazier, Starlin Castro, or Asdrubal Cabrera next. And I would hope so, because if there’s one thing that would be a disaster, it’s Ryon Healy at third base.
It’s true that Miller Park is phenomenal for lefties with any power, so this kind of makes sense. But I think if you took the entire Brewers roster at this point, there are only four guys who you would classify as “guys you know are going to be good”: Yelich, Hiura, Woodruff, and Hader. And at a certain point, that’s going to catch up with you.
Is Smoak basically Mitch Moreland?
Can he pitch, though?
With more power and better eye
This headline deserves a standing ovation
Worst infield defense in 2020?
Smoak has a great glove with a long reach. This will benefit the weaker, more errant arms in the infield. If he hits closer to what he did in 2017 than 2019…
How long a reach are we talking about?
He’s 6’4″ tall – you do the math. I believe he’s been a gold glove runner up the past two seasons (maybe other years as well). If you’ve watched him play, you’ve seen he is good, not just tall (maybe not real tall relative to other first baseman, but his glove combined with his height allows him to catch a lot of poor throws).
As per Fangraphs, he has provided negative defensive value in every year of his career. If his glove is really that good, then his range must be about .0001 feet.
someone doesn’t understand positional adjustment
I feel like the Mets have that one locked up. Especially if they plug JD Davis at third.
McNeil will start at third according to Beltran and Rosario’s defense improved in the second half and Alonso is around a league average at first.
Smoaks defence is understed, hes a vaccum. Handles balls in the dirt aplumb and the reach is ridiculous
Another signing that won’t wow anybody, but he’s not too far removed from being useful on offense, and they’re probably hoping to see some positive BABIP regression along with that ol’ Miller Park magic for LH batters.
Bummer on Eric Thames. In Korea they nicknamed him GOD. darn shame the God of baseball might be finally done!
Zips believes in a pretty big improvement, honestly. 1.3 win increase from last year seems optimistic.
I’m skeptical that Smoak has a rebound in him. I can’t imagine he can goose his BB% much more, and that was the only thing keeping him afloat in 2019. But once he’s on base, it’s a grind. He’s one of the slowest 5 players in MLB, right beside Albert Pujols, which isn’t usually a great sign. The lack of speed is bad enough to cost him doubles, and make it nearly impossible for him to advance an extra base. And forget about beating out anything close to a marginal play on the IF. Maybe he’s well-suited to the park and he’ll get a bump from that. I’m not rooting against him.
It’s weird seeing full-throated endorsements of his defensive ability – I’ve been watching him as a Jays fan for years, and he’s…fine? Certainly not someone you pick up expecting great defense. Good luck to him, the Jays got a good year or two out of him and a couple of playoff runs.
It’s just cool that a guy like Smoak is able to find a deal before the holidays. In the last two years, he’d probably be waiting til February at the earliest.
I’m not expecting peak Smoak, but a mild rebound doesn’t seem too out of reach. If we’re allowed to talk about Savant numbers here… his xwOBA – wOBA (-.043) points towards some bad luck. Only Marcell Ozuna (-.046) had a worse gap, for players with 250 or more PA. His average EV was the highest it’s been since 2016. A horrible BABIP sunk his 2019. I like the signing for the Brewers.