Members of the 2023 draft class are now on the pro side of The Board. You can see where freshly drafted and signed players stack up in their new organization’s farm system here. Graduates have also been pulled from The Board; their evaluations are now preserved on the 2023 Graduates tab. Players who exceed rookie playing time requirements between now and the end of the season will be moved from the 2023 Updated section of The Board to the Graduates section in real time, and those who graduate get a scouting update on their player page contrasting their evaluation with their performance at time of graduation. Note that the farm system rankings from prior to the graduates removal still exist here; live farm system rankings (for which the grads no longer count) exist here. These will shift and change as prospects move between now and the trade deadline.

Because the Top 100 grew and changed throughout the Prospect List cycle, readers should consider it live and up to date. I made some updates to Reds prospects (more on that in a second) and slid Diamondbacks outfielder Druw Jones, who succumbed to yet another injury between when the D-backs list published and now, but otherwise just pulled off the grads. There are only 89 players in the minors with a 50 FV grade or better right now because of the graduates being pulled off of the list. This is not unusual for this time of year; similar to the way the 50 FV cross section moved from 107 players to about 130 players during the last cycle, prospects who improve and advance will climb into that group.

Reds Update

Between now and the deadline, I’ll be reviewing the farm systems of a few key clubs likely to buy, something I’ve already done for the tippy top of the Reds system.

Lyon Richardson’s pitch grades have been altered to reflect that his changeup has become his best pitch. His innings count has been kept pretty conservative, and I’d really like to see him hold the 95–97 mph fastball he’s currently showing deeper into games before moving him into the 50 FV tier, but he looks really good. His command isn’t precise, but he has a mid-rotation starter’s mix and has been throwing hard since his return from TJ, just not while working a true starter’s innings load.

Cam Collier is struggling statistically, but the pro scouting reports from source clubs are still generally positive, and he is still very young for a full-season hitter. His swing is still pretty weird, but there’s just too much lefty power here to slide him so soon.

Noelvi Marte is not playing good defense right now. He’s hitting well enough that he’ll probably still be a quality big leaguer even if he has to move off of third base, but now that he is on the 40-man, he only has so long to find a position before he’s out of option years. Lurking on the horizon here is a scenario where he ends up with one or no options left and basically no position. It’s not his likeliest outcome, but because he’s looked pretty bad on defense for the last sixth months or so, this is now a conceivable outcome. I still think he will be a good big leaguer over time (he remains a 50 FV prospect on The Board), but were I a GM, I’d be apprehensive about making him the centerpiece of a trade return.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand moves up into the 45 FV tier as a power-hitting role player who’ll be a dangerous (but likely flawed) piece of this ascending Reds team. His Triple-A contact rate (72%) would be near the bottom of the MLB 1B position group (70%), and his chase rates (an eyebrow-raising 39%) were about 20% worse than big league average (32%) at the time he was called up. League-wide adjustment to his tendency to chase will make him streaky, but ultimately Encarnacion-Strand’s power is going to play in a big way because he’s incredibly strong, and his swing is geared to do big damage. There are warning signs here similar to what Elehuris Montero exhibited in the minors, even amid his awesome surface-level statistical performance, but CES is at a different level, physically.

Edwin Arroyo also slides from the 50 FV tier to the 45 FV tier. Again, he still projects to be a good big leaguer, just not a true everyday, omni-situational player in my eyes. He continues to have throwing issues that will likely funnel him to second base, which I suppose was already likely given the Elly/McLain combo ahead of him. He’s going to get to his power by virtue of his swing’s lift, but his bat-to-ball performance has regressed enough to reevaluate him in light of the new defensive projection and consider him more of a just-shy-of-average second baseman. Look at the kind of hit tool it takes to profile as an everyday second baseman. Arroyo’s performance has been fine, but not quite on that level.

You can see how punishing the De La Cruz, McLain, etc. graduations are to the Reds’ farm system ranking, but even if you consider that group to be untouchable, they have a ton of depth (nearly 50 ranked prospects) to leverage in trade discussions.