Trevor Bauer’s Dominating Curveball
Yesterday, I wrote about how Jon Gray’s curveball didn’t work in the NL Wild Card game. Gray hung a bunch of poorly-located curves that the Diamondbacks crushed, and he was chased from the game in the second inning. Last night, though, Trevor Bauer showed what a good curveball in the postseason looks like.
| Thrown | Ball | Called Strike | Whiff | Foul | In Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
With only four whiffs, you might not think the pitch was particularly dominant, but Bauer’s curveball was his best pitch of the night. Because, unlike Gray, he was able to keep it down.
Instead of just relying on whiffs, Bauer also managed to freeze hitters with curves in the zone, like he did to Aaron Judge here.
Eight times, Bauer froze a Yankee hitter with a curveball in the zone, including Aaron Judge twice for strike three. And when the Yankees did swing, it didn’t go much better for them.
15 times, a New York hitter went after Bauer’s curveball. Only seven of those 15 swings resulted in a ball in play. Here is what they did with those seven balls in play.
| Batter | Exit Velocity | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Brett Gardner | 65 | Pop Out |
| Chase Headley | 89 | Fly Out |
| Brett Gardner | 84 | Groundout |
| Gary Sanchez | 70 | Doulble Play |
| Aaron Hicks | 100 | Double |
| Brett Gardner | 83 | Groundout |
| Gary Sanchez | 75 | Groundout |
Hicks rocked a poorly located curve, but besides that, this is as weak as contact gets. With Sanchez’s double play, he still managed to rack up seven outs on the seven balls in play. Combined with the four strikeouts, Bauer got a total of 11 outs out of his 35 curveballs. Not bad indeed.
Bauer’s curve has always been his best pitch, and it’s probably not a coincidence that he’s had his best season while throwing his pitch more frequently than ever before. Bauer threw his curve 30% of the time in the regular season, and upped that to 36% last night. He’s not quite Rich Hill yet, but given what Bauer did to the Yankees with his breaking ball last night, they probably should expect a healthy dose of them if he gets into another game this series.
Of course, with Corey Kluber going today and Carlos Carrasco in Game Three, the Yankees might not see Bauer again this season.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I’ve been on the Cleveland-to-Championship bandwagon basically all season, so I’m not exactly unbiased. But I always thought it was funny how everyone was saying that no one would want to face the Yankees (in different ways). The Yankees are exceptionally good for a wild-card team, but Cleveland is a terror. Cleveland’s third best starting pitcher just shut down the second-best offense in MLB (although to be fair, they’re only a shade better than Cleveland’s offense).
The Yankees will probably get their favorite relievers back in Game 2, which is good for them. Of course, they’ll also be starting CC Sabathia up against Kluber, which is…less good. I’ll be interested to see how Girardi handles the bullpen in this situation.
As a Cleveland fan, the Yankees in the short series definitely worry me more than any other possible matchup though. I acknowledge that Cleveland themselves are the ultimate worst matchup for basically everyone. But NY has the unique ability in the short series to neutralize Cleveland’s main advantage with their starting pitching. Like Sabathia vs Kluber, favorable for Cleveland, but if the game is tied or Cleveland is trailing after 3 innings nothing would prevent Girardi going to the bullpen and using guys who are as good as Kluber on a per-inning basis.
Being that Cleveland has such a similar bullpen, that ultimately isn’t that much of a disadvantage though. It would just mean the Yankees are having to utilize their pen for more innings, while the Indians will better have theirs saved for when it matters most.
I don’t know that Cleveland’s bullpen is similar. Miller and Allen, and Bryan Shaw and Joe Smith, but after that it’s guys who have little/no experience as relievers, Clevinger and Salazar. They have the stuff to be dominant out of the bullpen, but you really don’t know what you’re going to get. And I would certainly take like Chapman and Kahnle over Shaw and Smith. With the off days in the ALDS, you don’t really need to “save” your relievers at all, as long as the starter can give you at least 3 innings
“Miller and Allen, and Bryan Shaw and Joe Smith, but after that” …it’s Olsen (2.41 FIP) before you even get to the 2 extremely impressive Starters currently in the pen (one of which is canceled out by the Yankees carrying Garcia in a similar fashion)
You need to “save” your bullpen only insomuch as you can’t expect them to be eating 6-8 innings almost every game. Expecting your starter to go 6-7 means you can use the full pen, even every single day if need be, to 1-2 guy match-up strengths rather than having to expect a full inning or more of each guy each time they step on the mound.
The scenario you presented is Sabathia going 3 – that leaves 6 innings for their short relievers. Already a coupe pitched yesterday, and they might be needed again Sunday and Monday too. That’s a ton of relying on the pen, even if there is an off-day; while Clevelands pen is available for situational appearances
Francona’s gamble obviously paid off. Still, I’m surpried he kept Bauer in as long as he did, given that he may need him in game 4. With Kluber going today, seems like he could have gone to the bullpen earlier last night.
Can’t say that the gamble paid off until Game 2 actually proceeds tonight. If it were to be rained out, and the series ended up going five games, this move could still backfire on Francona. As good as Bauer is, you would prefer Kluber in Game 5 if it came to that.
The forecast has cleared up a bit. Only 19% chance of rain at game time with the chance lowering as the night goes on.
I can’t??? But I just did. 🙂
Seriously though, the chances of a complete rainout seem very small at this point. So I’m sticking with what I said even if I can’t say it…
Wasn’t much of a gamble at all, honestly
Severino – 3.07 FIP
Montgomery – 4.07 FIP
Tanaka – 4.34 FIP
Sabathia – 4.49 FIP
Gray – 4.87 FIP
Since you know Severino wont be going in Game 1, that leaves him in Game 2 or 3 – so would you rather have your Ace going against the worst the Yankees have, or would you rather keep your best 2 guys to line up against their best?
Add in Bauer being better at home (plus Carrasco being better on the road), his strength being a weakness of the Yankees anyway, and the better availability of Clevingers/Salazar for Game 1 than Game 3 (since they will be needed in game 4) …and well honestly, this is kind of the opposite of a gamble – it’s the way the situation naturally lines up best to maximize win odds for the club.
Indians took the really good odds for 3 (and improved odds for the 4th) straight games rather than the extreme odds for 1 that would have otherwise increased the gamble for the other 3
The only truly odd thing to me is why people are so stuck in this old-school mind-state that the Ace absolutely has to pitch Game 1, even if it means him facing probably the worst pitcher your opponent will put forth
And to top it off, Bauer sported a 3.88 FIP on the season while even being much better in the second half. If we were talking Tomlin starting game one, okay, I too would question it. But Bauer is not Tomlin – Bauer is statistically stronger than all but 1 Yankees starter anyway.
As far as Game 4 – Tomlin or Salazar will start, Clevinger will likely be first out of the pen, Salazar (if he doesn’t start) or even Bauer will likely be 3rd in line if needed …and having that depth of Pen for Game 4 is a big part of why Bauer in Game 1 was almost a no brainer
you posted some of this same garbage in the other thread too. i addressed a little of it there.
first of all, stop being intellectually dishonest regarding sonny grays fip. it was 3.90 this year which clearly makes him the yankees #2 pitcher. not that you really need to look at fip to figure out who is the yankees 2nd best pitcher.
second, ‘old-school mind-state’ is not the reason mgrs throw their best pitcher in game 1. its because it gives them the best chance of winning game 1 and therefore the series. that should be pretty obvious. dave cameron said in chat that they should throw kluber game 1…would you consider him a ‘old-school mind-state’ guy???
basically the thing you seem to be missing is that we’re talking baseball. this isnt basketball where a team like the warriors have such a huge advantage in round 1 that they can sit durant for a couple games so he can heal and still win easily. the indians are at best like 60/40 favorites at home with bauer vs gray in game 1. those odds are not so overwhelming that you can just sit your best guy bc the win is basically assured.
and also, like ive said a million other times already, this decision (which is already pretty questionable in a vaccuum to begin with) looks even worse when you factor in the weather issues. at the time when this decision was made there was a decent enough chance that game 2 could get rained out. it should be obvious that if that happens and you only get to throw kluber once in a 5 game series its an absolute disaster.
so yeah, this isnt exactly a ‘no brainer’.
FIP says what probably should have happened in the past and indicates what you should expect moving forward. Sony Gray has shown both control and major dinger issues, and that is why the 4.78 FIP as a Yankee (and why he had a 4.67 last year)
Those two issues are (not surprisingly) exactly why he now has a 8.10 ERA in this Postseason. You can claim he is somehow their second best pitcher all you want, but when you are walking 4 on top of allowing 1.5 homers per 9, well…
Or if you’re merely all upset that I am using solely his numbers away from the cavernous Colosseum this year, there is a reason for that – and it’s visible in the 1.27 HR/9 (as opposed to 0.44) and 1.318 WHIP (as opposed to 1.092) Gray posted with Oakland on the road this season. He is following a similar trend-line to last years, indicating he is still not right as a pitcher. A very lucky partial season played in the Colosseum was completely masking that in 2017.
Second, if you use your best to win game 1 while dramatically decreasing your odds of winning game 2, 3 and 4, then winning game 1 was a completely pointless endeavor – and that’s what you seem to fail to accept.
Wasting your Ace in a game you should win almost regardless is about the stupidest thing you can do; period.
If the Indians didn’t have enough confidence in Bauer and a fully rested Pen being able to beat the inferior Gray, then there was no shot of the Indians winning this series. Having to use Bauer & the pen instead in front of Tomlin & the pen, both in NY and against the best 2 starters the Yankees have – well that is how you lose a series as you are putting nearly 100% of the burden on Kluber and Carrasco to win their respective 3 games
And I seriously cant grasp how that is so hard for you to understand. You need to win 3 games, not just shoot your wad to win 1 that you are favored to win almost regardless what you do.
and i cant grasp how hard it is for you to understand that they were like 56% to win game 1. thats slightly better than a coinflip. not super-duper-omg-we’re-so-good-we-cant-possible-lose favored.
get off your idiotic cleveland-is-so-good-they-should-just-destroy-the-yankees-even-without-kluber soapbox. it just isnt true. its not how baseball works.
and ofc like ive said multiple times and will say again (and ofc you wont address) thats ignoring the gigantic elephant in the room of a potential rainout in game 2.
so, like ive said about a billion times over these 2 threads: it definitely wasnt a ‘slam dunk’ or ‘no brainer’ or whatever idiotic term you want to use. it was at best a pretty meh decision and at worst a potential epic disaster if game 2 gets rained out and kluber only gets to pitch once in the series.
Baseball is awesome!
I may not be singing the same tune if this happens to the Dodgers in the WS
I have always loved a good curveball because that was my best pitch (by about a factor of 10) when I was younger so its awesome to see it have a bit of a resurgence. It is also the most astheticly pleasing pitch to watch IMHO. Nothing beats a nice curve just freezing a batter.
One of my fondest baseball memories involves a curve. When I was about 17 or so we got a new coach from another town and he was kind of a jackass to put it nicely. One of those guys who thought he was god’s gift to sports. Couple practices into the season he stepped into the box against me because he wanted to see “what I had” (in the most condescending way possible).
I uncorked a first pitch curve that started at his nose and broke back to the outside corner and he bailed out of the box harder than anyone I have ever seen in my life. Like, dropped the bat, fell backwards like he had been shot, helmet went flying, one of his shoes even flipped off haha. My catcher, god bless him, just held the ball right where he caught it for like 15 seconds while looking directly over at him lying in the dirt.
Needless to say he did not stay with our team very long after that. Hard to come back from being fooled so bad by a curve that your shoe comes off.
#LongLiveTheCurve
This is a story about someone’s high school baseball career that did not disappoint. Kudos! 🙂
That clip is reigniting my anger at having that stupid live strike zone graphic on the screen all game, just like ESPN does. Can we please have a national movement to get rid of that crap? I want to watch the game, not the work of the graphics department.
Why not show a gif where Bauer actually gets a batter looking in the zone, rather than benefit from a lucky call
Fixed it: Instead of just relying on whiffs, Bauer also managed to freeze hitters with curves “in the zone,” like he did to Aaron Judge here.
Serious dose of Bauer Outage last night. Had great command of the curve. Very little hard contact all night (though that was quite a LOUD strike by Todd Frazier). Sure, he got a couple calls but he was really on against a good hitting club.
Wow that whiff rate is almost like 1/4 as good as Sale’s wow
Based on the Fox Sports strikezone map, I thought Bauer got at least three called strikeouts based on pitches out of the strikezone (don’t get me wrong, he was DEALING, but that’s what I saw).
So I looked at the Fangraphs version of the strikezone map … zero called strikes outside the strikezone. Zilch. Nada.
That was one hell of a well pitched game.