We’ve Updated Our Prospect Rankings
We’ve made a lot of adjustments to our minor league prospect lists in the last week. We’ve added all top 10 round draft picks, regardless of whether they’ve signed, as only a handful will not and we’ll take them out if and when they fail to. We’ve added confirmed signings beyond the 10th round, and will keep adding those as they roll in. We’ve taken the graduated prospects off; you can see a list of those on the Prospects MLB Playing Time sidebar on the right side of the Prospects homepage. We’ve also moved over 120 prospects who were on the off-season lists around, and moved some onto the list who were eligible and weren’t included this winter.
What all of this means is that there are new team prospect lists, and a new overall top 124, as part of 1185 total prospects who appear on THE BOARD. Rays SS Wander Franco is now a 70 FV and the top prospect in baseball, just ahead of soon-to-graduate Padres SS Fernando Tatis Jr., who was also upgraded to a 70 FV.
Most prospects with new FV’s have only shifted a bit, up or down one tier. The most prominent players to move in this fashion are a throng of teenagers either drafted last year or being seen at length in the U.S. for the first time. This group — Giants SS Marco Luciano, Mariners OFs Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez, Mets SS Ronny Mauricio, Cardinals 3B Nolan Gorman, Orioles RHP Grayson Rodriguez, and Red Sox 1B Triston Casas — has started to separate from their same-aged peers.
Of the few players whose FV changed dramatically, the most relevant are Twins 2B Luis Arraez, who is making elite rates of contact and rocketed to the big leagues, and Indians RHP Zach Plesac, whose velo has spiked. Red Sox OF Jarren Duran was old for his level until his recent Double-A promotion, and his numbers are inflated by BABIP luck, but they’re not a total illusion and we think he may be a 50 FV if he hits at Portland the rest of the summer.
We didn’t peel many names off THE BOARD, even if they’re near the bottom of a list and struggling badly. We also shuffled draft guys a little as post-draft info came in on medicals, and updated reports from the college postseason and for hideout guys. Bobby Witt was a high 50 FV who we decided we were a bit low on and pushed into the low 55s.
THE BOARD is now live and will be updated regularly as we see or hear about players the rest of the summer. Follow the FanGraphs Prospects account on Twitter (@FG_Prospects) for BOARD updates, as we’ll tweet when we’ve added or moved someone. Also remember to check out the lists of future draft classes, which will also be updated at least weekly during summer showcases and college wood bat leagues. There will likely be one more sweeping update pre-trade deadline, in which a lot of players (July 2 signees, draft signing deadline guys) are added at once. That will come with a farm rankings update as well.
Seattle fans have got to be happy to see that despite the terrible performance of their team this year, it’s possible some more help is on the way. Kelenic, Rodriguez, Gilbert, White, and Dunn all look like they can play.
Jake Fraley and Ljay Newsome have popped a bit this year as well.
Eric had a pretty good writeup on Ljay Newsome (how do you pronounce that name?!) earlier this year in the quick-hit prospect notes. I’m a little surprised they’ve left him down in A+ for this long, because I can’t imagine he’s learning much more by crushing those guys.
NEW-sum.
I deserved that.
Was it a weak draft? Only 7 50s and and 6 in the top100? Others will move up if they perform but aren’t most drafts having double digit 50s and like 10 top100 guys right away before they even play a minor league game?
Most evaluators I read considered it a weak draft.
Yeah, I think so, at least compared to the last two. 2018 had a lot more depth, and 2017 had a handful of guys at the top who were considered Rutschman-level. I seem to recall that 2015 and 2016 were more like this year, and 2011 and 2012 were considered really strong, but my memory is pretty hazy beyond that and I don’t remember 2013 and 2014 at all.
Were there any thoughts about moving Matias down in the Royals list from #2?
Hitting .148/.259/.307 in an admittedly tough park in A+ but has a 44% strikeout rate and four home runs.
Feels like one of Lynch/Singer/Kowar/Lee are better than him.
Jake Fraley was excellent in High-A last year then got traded and has been equally as good after making the jump to AA this year. Any thought to bumping him up from a 40 or does he need to perform in AAA as well given he is 24 (albeit a new 24)?
Hitting .347/.416/.631 vs RHP
Hitting .237/.293/.263 vs LHP
Need to a) make sure this is not going to be a thing with him requiring him to be in a platoon, and then, yes, can he do this in AAA as well?
Given his struggles against LHP in thise 41 PAs, it makes his full year total that much more impressive. He’s been crushing RHP.
It feels to me like Kyle Lewis is being overrated based on his college/pre-injury self, which makes Fraley look way underrated by comparison.
any reason Karinchak fell off the Indians board despite a negative FIP in 13 inning out of the BP in AA/AAA?
NORM
I only looked at the Mets new board– Dalton Fowler stood out — a FV 40 picked up in the 27th round? that can’t be very common, can it?
Your disrespect of Wander Javier continues to be a very bad look for you guys.
Now that Javier is back on the field, I expect much better output from you, Dusty. At least give us a good writeup of his games. e.g., “Wander Javier had a tough outing against the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers, failing to get on base and striking out once.” Or something else that incorporates the new material you have to work with.
Surprised to not see Edwards top 100. Yes I understand he has no power but he also has special bat to ball skills (and plate discipline) with 80 speed. Think he should be top 100. Understand where you guys have Morejon/Baez but both have filthy stuff especially Morejon, even with the health problems. Ornelas continues to get lot of benefit of doubt with meh performance. Campasuno is underrated too imo and a way better prospect than tirso, he should be ok defensively at catcher and has plus bat skills/plate discipline. Looks like a potential 3 win guy for me
Xavier Edwards looks a little like low minors Cristian Pache if you just scout the stat line. Of course, by Edwards’ current age, Pache had already begun flashing a little power at high A (Edwards is in low A), and Pache was also already about to receive a promotion to AA.
I don’t really agree with that at all. Edwards doesn’t really strike out and Pache has had some worrying K issues. Luis Urias is probably the better-case argument.
I mean, I didn’t really see a problem there. A 20% K rate isn’t in the danger zone these days. Pache was right there in 2017, but as an 18 YO in full season debut. It’s one season. Then power and K rate both crept up for AA transition. The point was that power can show up, but Pache was already turning the corner with the bat at Edwards’ age point, and before the power showed up, Pache wasn’t a top 100 guy.
If it was to be interpreted as a 1 for 1 comparison, nix the comment, because they’re different players. That’s just a memory that was triggered for me.
Wander Franco must have some kind of sure and certain upside, if he as a Single A prospect is ranked as Fangraph’s #1 in baseball, yet Fernando Tatis – a guy who’s actually doing it (in spades!) at the MLB level remains at #2 on fangraphs list. Well, with a few more AB’s, it’ll be off that list forever, but Tatis is clearly not Fangraph’s favorite new MLB SS. Time will tell …
I also see that Adrian Morejon has dropped out of the top 100, which is about right given his injuries and performance, yet another top pitching prospect, Forrest Whitley remains at #4 despite injuries, suspension in 2018, and a subpar performance.
Well, prospects are all suspects to me, until they do it consistently at the major league level for a while. But heck, fangraphs has some wierd rating scales for some of these guys, as illustrated above.
They do it as a job, you don’t. You can certainly do your job better than they can. You are obviously welcome to your opinion but a certain amount of respect for what they do seems deserved. Ratings are always going to be a little bit subjective. Would you rate a player with a one-in-five chance of being the next Alex Rodriguez higher than a guy who is already a 4 win player?
Excellent ad hominem response. You don’t like the facts I raised, you’re probably a fanboy of Franco or Whitley, and took those illustrations personally. That’s OK. However, you didn’t address either of the specifics of my criticism.
No, I’m not a paid sports analyst, and that’s totally irrelevant to the issues I raised.
As far as “the next Alex Rodriguez”, do you have any idea of who Fernando Tatis is, his current stats, or what he’s done since he was brought up at the beginning of the season? I don’t know how what Tatis will eventually amount to, he’s still a prospect (as is Vlad, as is Franco), but he’s not “just a 4 win player”.
“But heck, fangraphs has some wierd rating scales for some of these guys, as illustrated above.”
I’m interested in baseball and enjoy the site. The a-rod reference wasn’t directed at Tatis, just that as you said, prospects are volotile. Tools vs. performance? They make a call, it’s subjective. Discussing their decisions is fine, questioning their methods is disrespectful. Your response to me was pretty aggressive, which seems more and more par for the course online. I’m not questioning your opinion, just how you treat people.
I disagree that it is disrespectful to question someone’s methods only because they are a professional. As long as it is respectful it should be encouraged. If no one was ever questioned, nothing would change. No one is infallible.
Back to baseball, I do wonder why a 19 year old in A ball is rated over an older prospect who has had small sample size success in the MLB when they have professed to prefer more established prospects with less volatility.
On a completely different note, it is interesting that drafted college pitchers are typically seen as having lower upside, but many top pitchers in the MLB were college pitchers (Scherzer, deGrom, Verlander, etc). However, it is obviously a case by case basis.
Kirilloff getting dinged on anything more than the injuries?
Reed Garrett is listed under Detroit. He has been moved back to Texas
Forget this. It’s only when you click on the first link, which appears to be the preseason rankings
Excellent work as always fellas. Really enjoy the depth of your coverage and read pretty much everything you put out. However, what fun would it be if I didn’t tell you where I disagreed? Here are my top beefs.
Too High
#4 – Forrest Whitley – He hasn’t really done much in the last year and a half to deserve this ranking. 2018 was filled with suspension and injuries and 24 innings of good, but not great results. So far 2019 has brought more injuries and this time, god awful results.
#13 – Keibert Ruiz – I love his plate discipline and lack of K’s but overall his numbers have been mediocre to subpar the last two years. A 30 grade runner with little pop (.067 ISO in 2019, .111 career) is going to have to get on base at a really high clip to have value on offense, and he hasn’t done that since 2017.
Too Low
#20 – Kyle Tucker – Tucker was literally the most unlucky player on the planet during his MLB debut and it carried into 2019. Of the 550 players with at least 50 PAs last year, Tucker had the largest difference in wOBA to xwOBA, and by a wide margin. He had an insanely low BABIP in April this year but has arguably been the best hitter in the minors since May 1.
#27 – Luis Robert – Speaking of arguably the best player in the minors this year, it’s hard to argue that anyone has been better than Luis Robert. As a player with all the tools to be a superstar playing at a superstar level, I would have thought he would have cracked the top 10, possibly top 5.
#68 – Yordan Alvarez – I think everyone is aware of the offensive tear Alvarez has been on. Obviously a very SSS but homering in his two MLB games has to be encouraging as well. I have to assume this is due to his defensive limitations. I haven’t seen much said about his defense. Is he really a butcher in the field?
OK, so i guess i just disagree with all you Astro rankings. That being said, any thoughts on Brett Conine? He wasn’t a guy that seemed to be on anyone’s radar coming into the year but has been putting up some amazing numbers. Does his stuff support the stats?
For me, the guy I think they’re way too low on (really, that everyone is too low on) is Matt Manning. They moved him up, but I don’t think it was far enough. If you like your pitching prospects big, you may prefer Whitley or Dustin May; if you’re unconcerned with innings totals, then Nate Pearson or Sixto might be your choice. But for my money, Manning is the best pitching prospect right now, with the performance and stuff all telling us he’s got #1, league-ace potential. I think he’s better than Mize, McKay, and Gore, who are also all top-flight prospects.
Big huge thumbs up on regular up dating!
Love The Board. Could you add an “AL only” “NL only” filter?