Zach Britton and the Two Possible Explanations
The Blue Jays just walked off against the Orioles, with Ubaldo Jimenez giving up the game-losing home run to Edwin Encarnacion in the bottom of the 11th inning. The story, though, is that the Orioles used seven pitchers in their final game of the season, and potential Cy Young winning closer Zach Britton was not one of them. The Blue Jays beat the Orioles in large part because the Orioles didn’t use their best pitcher tonight.
At this point, there are two possible explanations for Buck Showalter’s decision.
1. Zach Britton wasn’t available, or felt something off when he warmed up in the 8th inning. Given that Buck Showalter seems like a reasonable human being, this should probably be our default assumption right now. Often times, when a manager does something inexplicable with their bullpen usage, there’s information asymmetry, and they know something we don’t know. That may very well be the case here.
OR
2. The “save” stat just cost the Orioles their 2016 season. If Showalter really used Brian Duensing and Ubaldo Jimenez before Zach Britton because he was waiting to get Britton a lead so that he could earn a save, then this is the craziest managerial decision that I can remember in my baseball-watching life.
I don’t see another possibility, really. Either Britton is hurt or Buck Showalter just screwed up in an historic way. It will be interesting to find out how honest the team is about Britton’s availability in postgame comments.
Update: It was option #2. A few quotes from Showalter.
Buck: "He was available"
— JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) October 5, 2016
Buck: "You could (regret) afterwards, but we went 4 innings trying to get to that spot (of using Britton)."
— JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) October 5, 2016
Buck: "Playing on the road had something to do with it too."
— JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) October 5, 2016
"Nobody has been pitching better for us than Ubaldo."
— JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) October 5, 2016
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Percent of minds that will be as reasonable as this post tomorrow…. < 1%
..I guess especially if it's reason 2. I love October baseball
He has to be hurt. He HAS TO BE HURT!
Guess again!
Ernie Johnson sucks at baseball, I don’t think he even mentioned the Britton situation even once. ESPN and MLBN going crazy with it.
*Checks Zach Britton’s GB rate, shakes head disapprovingly.*
This brings back memories of the Braves vs Dodgers in 2013,when Kimbrel never got in the game,Heart breaker for Baltimores faithful.
And it was every bit as stupid. You walk Encarnation to load the bases and bring in Britton. Showalter is a moron who doesn’t understand leverage.
Should have been in the game long before that, though.
This was even more stupid. Then, the Braves had Kimbrel warming up in the 8th inning with no outs and a one run lead, and were clearly going to bring him if things looked dicey. It was also game 2 of a 5 game series. The guy they used instead was a legit 8th inning guy who’d had a strong season. Unfortunately, he lost the 1-run lead after facing just two batters.
This was a tie game on the road, in a situation where you lose if the other team scores, and the guys used instead have xFIPs at 4.5+. This, in a game where the season ends if you lose. This actually takes the cake.
“The Blue Jays just walked off against the Orioles” – despite everything else, I’m just so happy to read that first sentence. See ya Thursday, Rangers.
To be fair, and it actually wasn’t this explicitly confounding, Braves fans know the pain: http://usatthebiglead.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/craig-kimbrel-looks-on-as-the-dodgers-win.gif?w=1000
Didn’t know gifs showed up, thought it’d just be a link.
Thank you Fredi Gonzalez.
At least Kimbrel was up. Britton didnt even throw a warm up pitch.
I would have taken zero warm up pitch Britton over fully warmed up Ubaldo…
Amen.
I think he was up in the 8th inning and then just disappeared
And this was WORSE: Those Braves had the lead and used their second best reliever in the game, during Game 2 of a 5 game series. This was a one-game PLAYOFF, EXTRA INNINGS, with swing-starters getting into the game before the closer!
Actually (as you can see on the scoreboard) that was Game 4 of the NLDS. The Braves were trailing 2-1 in the series and were eliminated an inning later.
Think it’s worth mentioning that Britton has not pitched in a non-save situation on the road this season, except for one day when he hadn’t worked in 5 consecutive days. Think we’re really underestimating the likelihood of the second scenario.
edit- Jon Morosi ?@jonmorosi 17s17 seconds ago
Zach Britton was healthy and available, Buck Showalter confirms.
Baffled, baffled, I tells ya.
Do you realize that the game you referenced was against Toronto on the road? And Britton struck out Encarnacion in the bottom of the 10th?
Showaltalter just said at the press conference Britton was available, so…
So fire him, just fire him.
How about fire the guys batting. No hits after the 6th. Britton could have pitched 6 innings and we weren’t going to score
The hitters did the best they could to get hits. They failed physically. It’s not like they considered their options and decided a groundout helped the team win more than a home run. Showalter didn’t do the best he possibly could.
Showalter’s decision was one of the dumbest from a manager that I have ever seen, but firing him because of it would rank as one of the dumbest executive decisions. It is widely believed that he is a primary reason why the Orioles have beaten their projections by far more than any other team over the last five years. It’s somewhat akin to a brilliant investor doubling your nest egg, then getting liquored up and blowing 25% of the gain. Apoplexy is perfectly justified, but firing the guy would be idiotic because in sum you’re still a lot better off for having him.
Petriello pointed out on Twitter that Buck had only used Britton in a tie game on the road once each in each of the last two seasons.
Exactly. !
At the very least I would have walked Edwin after the back to back Travis/Tulo hits & brought in Britton to try to get out of the inning.
Just passing along the observation that examination of Showalter’s previous usage history should make the result less surprising than it seems to be for so many.
I think most of us are surprised that Showalter is donkey-brained enough to manage the same way in a wild-card game.
So… That’s the problem.
Jon Morosi ?@jonmorosi 17s17 seconds ago
Zach Britton was healthy and available, Buck Showalter confirms.
Yep.
The great Zach Britton debacle will certainly mask the embarrassing performance by Jimenez tonight… woof. Five pitches, four meatballs, three hits.
Crazy thing is that if you’re refusing to use Britton, Jimenez was probably the best option at that point
Well when you can turn to a guy with a 0.54 ERA, or a guy with a 5.44 ERA, the choice is pretty obvious.
*Jimenez comes trotting in*
Welp.
Fire him, just FIRE HIM!
Confirmed as not injured…..terrible terrible call
OHHHHHHH MYYYYYYYYYY GOODDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD
NEIIIGGHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
After escaping the lower part of the Jays lineup with O’Day in the 10th, Buck should have cried Uncle to the orthodoxy of using his closer and just got Britton ready to face the top of that Jays lineup. Gotta keep the ball in the park, or else you blow the opportunity to give Britton a save opportunity.
“Nobody has been pitching better for us than Ubaldo.”
I just learned that Zach Britton’s nickname in the clubhouse is “Nobody”. Otherwise, that statement would be laughably inaccurate.
Odysseus strikes again!
Or it means that the correct managerial decision would have been to go with an empty mound for the 11th. At least that way you’re not giving up hits.
Insane.
How about blame the 9 guys didn’t hit? Britton gave up runs 5 times and 3 werent in save situations.
Sometimes guys don’t hit, that’s baseball. This is the equivalent of one of those guys voluntarily taking a wiffle ball bat to the plate. Usually manager decisions that get argued are such a small margin that you can debate whether or not a bad call really mattered, but this is about as bad a decision as I’ve ever seen a manager make in an elimination game.
Go look at the 5 times Britton gave up runs. 3 were in non save situations….
Ubaldo Jimenez had a 5.44 ERA in non save situations…
I will agree Jimenez was wrong ( I would Have used Bundy )
Also, isn’t the argument people make about using closers in non-save situations that they somehow need the adrenaline of the game being on the line to be their best? Wouldn’t a tied elimination game in a hostile environment provide enough pressure to bring out his best?
Don’t they also say baseball players are superstitious . I think that mentally he just acts different he it by pitching in save situations
Well Britton said after the game that he was upset he didn’t pitch, so it wasn’t his superstition.
His numbers are also pretty equally fantastic in low, medium and high leverage situations. There’s no evidence he can’t pitch well in a tie game on the road except that Buck Showalter won’t use him there
To respond to your line of reasoning, which is patently absurd and not really worth responding to, if he can’t wrap his mind around a do-or-die playoff game and summon whatever mythical level of intensity he apparently reserves for “save situations,” he is the dumbest person alive.
Dumb, yes. But dumbest person alive? Not while Anthony Weiner is still breathing.
I mean sure, they needed to put some hits together… but you should give your lineup as many opportunities to hit as possible. And a great way to do that might be to put your best pitchers in…
Dan Duquette should have walked down and fired Buck as EE was rounding the bases.
I would have. And told him to get his stupid ass out right now.
*Buck Showalter picks up ringing phone*
Showalter: This is Buck
Ausmus: It was the right move Buck
Showalter: You don’t think I should have used Bri…
Ausmus: Did you have the lead?
Showalter: No but…
Ausmus: Did you have the lead?
Showalter: No…
Ausmus: Then you can’t use your closer. It’s in the rules, trust me.
Yost: Bucky it’s Ned, Brad is right
Buck probably should have at least waited until the offseason to hire Dave Stewart as a special consultant
The sad thing is, even Ned seems to have gotten the memo about closers.
Zach Britton Verified account
?@zbritton
Just sitting around the bullpen tonight w my guys. Felt like I should be doing something important, but couldn’t put my finger on it.
7:52 PM – 4 Oct 2016
Britton: 4 ER in 67.0 IP as a reliever in regular season
Ubaldo: 3 ER in 0.0 IP in wild card game, 8.71 ERA as reliever in regular season
“Nobody has been pitching better for us than Ubaldo.”
“Nobody is dumber than Showalter.”
At the same time, it wasn’t surprising at all. Managers think that way.
Well, except the opposing manager did pretty much the exact opposite and won the game.
Not really. Using your closer in a tie game at home is very different from doing it on the road. At home, there is no lead to protect in extra innings because once you get the lead the game is over. I am not in any way defending Showalter, but it is grossly incorrect to suggest that Gibbons “did pretty much the exact opposite.”
This is worse than the Seahawks not running the ball.
Much worse, considering there were actually some very good reasons for passing in that situation. Beginning with Wilson’s 1.5% int rate for the season, and the NFL’s 1.5% int rate in that situation during the season.
For sale: Zach Britton (never used).
http://forgifs.com/gallery/d/230658-2/Donald-Duck-rage-fit.gif
I don’t know who threw that can of beer at the Hyun-soo Kim, but based on the poor aim, I’d guess it was Ubaldo Jimenez.
If they had thrown it at Showalter and knocked him out the Orioles would’ve probably won the game.
Counter-point: Starting the inning with Jimenez is justifiable on the basis of Leverage.
According to Tango (http://www.insidethebook.com/li.shtml#18), LI in a tied game in the bottom of the 9th is 2.3, while LI being up 1 in the bottom of the 9th is 3.6. If you believe that situation is going to occur, you would want to have your best reliever available for it vs. using him in a tied game.
So I actually get going with Jimenez at first — it’s staying with Jimenez once he lets two guys reach that’s really the issue to me.
they did not start the inning with Jimenez. Duensing started the inning.
I have no doubt that there’s some debate that can be had about when the best time to use Britton was.
But there’s no debate that he should have been used at some point. Of all the options regarding Britton’s usage, using him as a cheerleader on the bullpen bench is the most wrong.
Totally agree. You want to absolutely ensure that your best pitcher pitches in a game of this magnitude.
No disagreement there — 100% you’ve got to bring him into the game at some point.
I just disagree with the broad statement Dave made: “If Showalter really used Brian Duensing and Ubaldo Jimenez before Zach Britton because he was waiting to get Britton a lead so that he could earn a save, then this is the craziest managerial decision that I can remember in my baseball-watching life.”
I’m saying it’s justified to use Duensing and Jimenez before Britton, because having nobody on with no outs (or one out) in a tied game is actually lower leverage than many other potential extra-inning situations.
What about in the 9th when the Jays had runners on 1st and 2nd with 0 out. High leverage, still no Britton.
Yes, that would have been a good time, too. But doesn’t the outcome with O’Day just make Showalter’s case, which is that his team could get through those tied innings without using Britton?
Bad reasoning can still lead to a good outcome, just with a lower probability.
But your argument is that he didnt use Britton because there were no high enough leverage situations. That is clearly not true.
I don’t think putting O’Day in was a terrible decision. O’Day is an elite reliever, and whatever was bugging him earlier in the season seems to be fixed. I still think you use Britton there.
Perhaps I missed something. What was the LI when Britton pitched tonight?
This counter-point argument is essentially the classic ‘good is the opposite of perfect’ concept.
The chances of them being up 1 in the bottom of the 9th (or any subsequent inning) are slim, especially after using Duensing and Ubaldo. The chances of them being tied in the 9th or any subsequent inning were 100% on three separate occasions.
But you don’t know if you’re going to take the lead with just one run. Your team could score two or four or seven runs. Beyond that, until you do score a run, you absolutely can’t allow any, and the best way to prevent that is to use your best pitchers.
Luke Jones said it best
The #Orioles played .500 ball after the All-Star break because their offense fell off a cliff beyond hitting homers. Did them in tonight.
That and leaving a pitcher having a historic season – their CLEAR best pitcher by a country mile – on the shelf in an elimination game.
I see 3 possible outcomes to this situation.
1: You put Ubaldo in, hope he can hold the lead until you score some runs, and then bring in the best reliever in the game to finish it off.
2. You put in Britton instead of Ubaldo, he holds the Jays to no runs (or doesn’t, in which case it may have been the smarter decision but the effect would be the same as using Ubaldo. But he probably holds them scoreless). You score in the top half of the next inning, you send Britton out for a second inning to try to seal things.
3. You put in Britton, you don’t score when you come up to bat next, maybe you can squeeze a second inning out of Britton, and then you have a tie ballgame with no good pitchers left in the bullpen.
Putting in Britton at any point in a tie game on the road means you HAVE to score the next time you come to the plate. If you don’t, even if you score after Britton’s second inning, you have nothing left in the bullpen to protect that lead. Ubaldo (or whoever was left at that point, which I’m assuming wasn’t much since O’day, Brach, Givens had already been used) in a 1-run game isn’t much better than Ubaldo in a tie game. At least you still have Britton to turn to if you can get a lead
Britton has completed to inning twice in the past two years. He faced 6 or more batters in an outing 7 times this years, only two of which came after the trade deadline. I understand that especially in a one game elimination you need to try to squeeze a little extra out of your players, especially your stars. But I do see the logic here towards saving Britton. If anything, I think this really does show how crucial homefield advantage can be in a one-game playoff.
I don’t understand your reasoning. Why do the Orioles have to score the next time they hit? The massive advantage of using Britton before Ubaldo is that it ensures that Britton gets into the game. Using Ubaldo first means that you risk Britton not pitching at all. In a game of this magnitude it’s simply crazy to not have your best pitcher (by far) out there.
And I don’t think Britton’s usage history is all that relevant. This was an elimination game, it’s all hands on deck and you pull out all the stops to maximize your chance of winning the game. Even if you use Britton for 2+ innings there would be a day off tomorrow anyway.
If you can’t trust Ubaldo to hold a one-run lead, then you sure as heck can’t trust him in a tie game on the road in extras. In the save situation he has at least a one run cushion. Even Ubaldo Jimenez can be trusted to get three outs before giving up two runs most of the time. Using him over Britton in a situation where allowing one run to score ENDS YOUR SEASON is just objectively wrong.
And that’s without even getting into the fact that he was left in with the winning run on third and fewer than two outs. Even if you want to gamble with the bases empty, when the game reaches that point you have to have your best available pitcher on the mound.
You still have to use your best pitcher. You’re assuming that they’ll score one run or something and then he’ll only have Ubaldo to protect it. But that’s only one of many possible outcomes. And so what? At least you got the game to the point where you scored first. You pushed the Jays bullpen or whoever to the max too. Put them into desperation mode. Maybe you score three runs instead of one, and Ubaldo or someone else can handle it. But you’ve got to prevent runs as long as you can. That’s all you should be trying to do.
“Putting in Britton at any point in a tie game on the road means you HAVE to score the next time you come to the plate. If you don’t, even if you score after Britton’s second inning, you have nothing left in the bullpen to protect that lead.”
This makes no sense whatsoever. The O’s WE would be higher if they had a lead so they’d be in a better position to handle it with multiple relievers than they would a tie game.
Regardless, Buck has no idea when his team is going to score. He has to use his best pitchers and, of course, hope his team scores. If not, you’re acting like he wasted Britton. It wouldn’t have been a waste to keep the Jays scoreless for 2 innings while giving his team an opportunity to score.
Buck’s decision would be similar to Collins tonight leaving Cespedes on the bench so that he could use him as a pinch hitter in the highest leverage situation possible. If they never get close (b/c they can’t score with him on the bench) that situation never comes. Then Terry Collins says something brilliant like “no one has hit better than Jay Bruce” or “we went 9 innings trying to get to a good spot to use Yoenis.”
It’s patently moronic and indefensible.
The next time I’m in a sports bar and somebody says something positive about Buck Showalter I’m going to deck them.
Buck on Britton tonight: “He was available”
Duquette on Buck tomorrow: “He is available”
Boy I wish I could post a comment as Matt Williams right now.
Are “road closer myths” a significant source of home field advantage?
Yeah I was just thinking about this. Home field advantage against old school managers is a huge benefit.
I’m pretty sure it’s not a “significant” difference, much less “huge”. Over long periods, it looks like home teams have won about 52% to 53% of extra inning games. ( Source: http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/155.html ) A bit less than 10% of games go to extra innings. (Source: http://www.hardballtimes.com/beyond-the-ninth-inning/ ).
There would also be some impact on walk-off wins in the bottom of the 9th, but those would require close analysis because of course some of them are the visiting closer having a lead and then giving up multiple runs to lose the game.
And home teams win more than half of baseball games overall (53.7% over 2010-2014), so we’d expect that, given a tie score after any inning of a game, the home team is somewhat more likely to win.
If we think that travel-related fatigue is a factor that hurts road teams, it’s plausible that effect could be a particular disadvantage when a game stretches into extra innings. Time zone changes could factor into that. For an Eastern Time Zone team playing on the road on the West Coast, it’s about 1:30 in the morning Eastern time when the 9th inning ends.
So I’m finding it tough to see statistical evidence that road teams overall lose many more extra inning games than they should based on overall expectations.
I’m so confused.
The most amazing fact of all this is people are defending Showalter. I had no idea so many members of Showalter’s family had accounts on Fangraphs.
3. Britton was present, but his sinker had been confiscated by a Canadian customs agent.
Even if you don’t bring Britton in, why didn’t they walk Encarnacion? Its less than 2 outs with a man on third! Just put him on 1st to set up the double play! Ideally you would walk him, then bring in Britton, but you should walk him either way.
Ubaldo has poor command and Jose has an elite batting eye. Walk him, and it’s game over. Get behind in the count, and you need to pump fastballs at him. Of course, if you’re gonna pump fastballs at Edwin with one out and a runner on third, pretty much ANYTHING else would be preferable.
Asking Ubaldo to intentionally walk someone is like letting an alcoholic take just one sip. You just don’t open that door.
On a silver lining note (sorry, O’s fans), doesn’t this pretty much guarantee that this never happens again in a big game? And, maybe, go a long way toward making the practice far less common in all games? (I can dream, can’t I? )
Remember when Ned Yost had one of the best bullpens in baseball history in 2014 and he chose to bring in Yordano Ventura in relief during the wild card game instead of turning to his bullpen and he promptly gave up a 3 run HR?
That was two years ago almost to the day. Didnt stop Showalter from doing this. I would not hold your breath on this changing anything.
Didn’t stop after Matheny and Fredi Gonzalez did the same thing not so long ago. People like Showalter legitimately don’t think they did anything wrong. Buck might be in the unemployment line with the two former managers next season, though.
He belongs in that unemployment line.
http://larrybrownsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/MarkReynoldsBuckShowalterHanging.gif
The saddest part of all of this is that it’s 2016, and managers of major league playoff teams are STILL ignorant about HOW to use relief pitchers.
I really think a big factor was Showalter thinking that Ubaldo was “hot” based on his ERA in Sept. Of course, his peripherals were well within the range of his normal suckitude — but I think in Buck’s unsound mind, he honestly thought he was sending out a ~3.00 ERA pitcher.
Either way, he should be fired immediately.
Explanation #3: Buck Showalter was drunk. *really* drunk.
#Yosted
Option C:
Showalter bet Cito Gaston $10 million that he could come up with a MORE inexplicable non-usage of an Orioles All-Star pitcher.
Dave yesterday: Showalter should consider using Britton earlier than normal in the one-game playoff.
Showalter after seeing Dave’s post: #$@#! what that stat geek thinks. I’m gonna use him even later than normal.
“Nobody has been pitching better for us than Ubaldo.”
Except Zach Britton, who’s the best reliever on the planet and you just let him sit there.
As a Cards fan, I sure hope that Mike Matheny was watching tonight.
For all of Matheny’s historical problems, he actually got a lot better about that one late this season.
He used Oh three times in the bottom of the 9th in a tie game on the road in August this year – http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/birdland/matheny-s-use-of-closer-oh-changes-part-of-evolving/article_a65b9cee-a338-5ccc-817b-34cfe6355c90.html
He also brought Oh in to pitch the bottom of the 8th inning on the road against San Francisco on September 17, down 2-1. Oh ended up pitching 2 scoreless innings, and the Cardinals scored twice in the top of the 9th to win the game.