Madison Bumgarner and the Crazy Path to Cooperstown

Last night, during Madison Bumgarner’s latest playoff masterpiece, someone asked me in our live blog whether Bumgarner’s postseason heroics have already been great enough to get him into the conversation about potential Hall of Fame pitchers, even though he’s obviously far short on regular season totals. And there’s no question that Bumgarner’s playoff numbers are staggering; he’s now thrown 97 1/3 innings with a 1.94 ERA, good for a 53 ERA-. He’s already thrown three complete game shutouts in his postseason career; the all-time Major League record is four. Bumgarner has already cemented himself as one of the best playoff pitchers in history, and he’s still just 27.

But while we’re all rightfully marveling at Bumgarner’s dominance today, it’s worth remembering that, for whatever reason, the current crop of Hall of Fame voters have shown no interest in enshrining quality starting pitchers, even ones with similarly unbelievable postseason numbers. For comparison, here’s Bumgarner’s career postseason numbers compared with those of Curt Schilling.

Bumgarner and Schilling
Pitcher Innings H/9 HR/9 BB% K% ERA-
Bumgarner 97.3 6.2 0.65 5% 22% 53
Schilling 133.3 7.0 0.81 5% 23% 50

If Bumgarner throws another 40 innings at his current postseason pace, he’ll essentially match what Schilling did during his postseason career. Except Schilling also threw 3,261 excellent regular season innings, worth +80 WAR by FIP (#20 all-time) and +81 WAR (#32 all-time) by runs allowed. And the BBWAA members with Hall of Fame ballots haven’t cared at all.

In 2013, Schililng’s first year on the ballot, he got 39% of the vote. As the ballot got more crowded, he dropped to 29% in 2014, then bounced back to 39% in 2015. Last year, encouragingly, he got up to 52% of the vote, which puts him within striking distance of the 75% needed. Most guys who get over 50% within their first few years eventually get in, so Schilling has a shot at getting inducted.

But think about what we’d require from Bumgarner to get to Schilling’s career numbers. Not only does he have to throw 40 more amazing innings in the postseason, he’s almost 2,000 regular season innings behind; we’d basically need him to keep throwing 200 innings per year for the next ten years. And it’s not like Bumgarner got a late start on his career; he debuted at 19, and would still need to be throwing 200 innings per year at age 36 in order to get up to Schilling’s career innings total, without any injuries between now and then.

And if Bumgarner does that, his closest statistical comparison would be the kind of guy that voters kind of shrug their shoulders at, not sure whether he was worthy of the Hall of Fame or not. That’s just nuts.

Bumgarner, at this point, has more work to do to put himself in Hall of Fame consideration. He just hasn’t pitched enough at this point to be a strong candidate. But there’s no question that he’s put together one of the best postseason resumes we’ve ever seen, and if he remains a quality pitcher for most of the next decade, how could we possibly deny him entry?

But that’s what we’re doing to Schilling. If you’re awed by Bumgarner’s October dominance — and you should be — then you should support Curt Schilling for the Hall of Fame. I know he’s not the most likable guy in the world, but the Hall of Fame is for honoring the greatest players of all time, and Schilling was one of those. When you watch Bumgarner pitch, remember that Schilling was just as good for even longer, and then lobby your favorite Hall of Fame voter to recognize the guy who was doing this before Bumgarner came along.





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

36 Comments
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rosen380
7 years ago

FWIW- regular season through age 26:

MB 1398 IP, 27.6 fWAR
CS: 607 IP, 10.0 fWAR

RCmember
7 years ago
Reply to  rosen380

This is a fair point. Schilling’s career never really took off till age 30….I wonder if voters view him somewhat differently because he never had the crazy numbers at a young enough age that they could dream on what he could be?

TKDCmember
7 years ago
Reply to  RC

Also, right or wrong (hint, the answer is wrong), it makes some people question his use of PED. His being a first rate asshole makes it even easier to make that conclusion in your mind. I wouldn’t dream of giving the BBWAA enough credit to separate Schilling the person from Schilling the ballplayer.

scooter262
7 years ago
Reply to  TKDC

Not going to comment on PEDs, but I agree that Schilling the person does not deserve to be in the HOF. And, I don’t mind that this part influences the BBWAA members decision. I think that character should play a part in whether a player gets in.

Dave T
7 years ago
Reply to  scooter262

Even if “character” should influence who is in the Hall of Fame, Schilling is a very poor example. Even if one hates his politics and thinks that he was a showboating, arrogant asshole – which has long been a common view for reasons that have nothing to do with politics – so what? These aren’t claims that he cheated at the sport or did something for which he should go to prison. It’s pretty far down the road to saying, “Hey, I won’t vote for that guy just because I don’t like him.”

374285942768
7 years ago
Reply to  Dave T

ok but the hall of fame is the part of baseball that goes down in history, and therefore it represents what the game stood for. having pieces of shit all over the HOF is gonna represent the game as nothing more than a toilet bowl. it’s time to clean it up.

KCDaveInLA
7 years ago
Reply to  RC

Randy Johnson’s first truly dominant season was in his 29-30 season.

I always felt like Schilling was mostly overshadowed in his career, mostly by Johnson and later Pedro. He will get in, in time.