Madison Bumgarner and the Crazy Path to Cooperstown
Last night, during Madison Bumgarner’s latest playoff masterpiece, someone asked me in our live blog whether Bumgarner’s postseason heroics have already been great enough to get him into the conversation about potential Hall of Fame pitchers, even though he’s obviously far short on regular season totals. And there’s no question that Bumgarner’s playoff numbers are staggering; he’s now thrown 97 1/3 innings with a 1.94 ERA, good for a 53 ERA-. He’s already thrown three complete game shutouts in his postseason career; the all-time Major League record is four. Bumgarner has already cemented himself as one of the best playoff pitchers in history, and he’s still just 27.
But while we’re all rightfully marveling at Bumgarner’s dominance today, it’s worth remembering that, for whatever reason, the current crop of Hall of Fame voters have shown no interest in enshrining quality starting pitchers, even ones with similarly unbelievable postseason numbers. For comparison, here’s Bumgarner’s career postseason numbers compared with those of Curt Schilling.
| Pitcher | Innings | H/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% | ERA- |
| Bumgarner | 97.3 | 6.2 | 0.65 | 5% | 22% | 53 |
| Schilling | 133.3 | 7.0 | 0.81 | 5% | 23% | 50 |
If Bumgarner throws another 40 innings at his current postseason pace, he’ll essentially match what Schilling did during his postseason career. Except Schilling also threw 3,261 excellent regular season innings, worth +80 WAR by FIP (#20 all-time) and +81 WAR (#32 all-time) by runs allowed. And the BBWAA members with Hall of Fame ballots haven’t cared at all.
In 2013, Schililng’s first year on the ballot, he got 39% of the vote. As the ballot got more crowded, he dropped to 29% in 2014, then bounced back to 39% in 2015. Last year, encouragingly, he got up to 52% of the vote, which puts him within striking distance of the 75% needed. Most guys who get over 50% within their first few years eventually get in, so Schilling has a shot at getting inducted.
But think about what we’d require from Bumgarner to get to Schilling’s career numbers. Not only does he have to throw 40 more amazing innings in the postseason, he’s almost 2,000 regular season innings behind; we’d basically need him to keep throwing 200 innings per year for the next ten years. And it’s not like Bumgarner got a late start on his career; he debuted at 19, and would still need to be throwing 200 innings per year at age 36 in order to get up to Schilling’s career innings total, without any injuries between now and then.
And if Bumgarner does that, his closest statistical comparison would be the kind of guy that voters kind of shrug their shoulders at, not sure whether he was worthy of the Hall of Fame or not. That’s just nuts.
Bumgarner, at this point, has more work to do to put himself in Hall of Fame consideration. He just hasn’t pitched enough at this point to be a strong candidate. But there’s no question that he’s put together one of the best postseason resumes we’ve ever seen, and if he remains a quality pitcher for most of the next decade, how could we possibly deny him entry?
But that’s what we’re doing to Schilling. If you’re awed by Bumgarner’s October dominance — and you should be — then you should support Curt Schilling for the Hall of Fame. I know he’s not the most likable guy in the world, but the Hall of Fame is for honoring the greatest players of all time, and Schilling was one of those. When you watch Bumgarner pitch, remember that Schilling was just as good for even longer, and then lobby your favorite Hall of Fame voter to recognize the guy who was doing this before Bumgarner came along.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
FWIW- regular season through age 26:
MB 1398 IP, 27.6 fWAR
CS: 607 IP, 10.0 fWAR
This is a fair point. Schilling’s career never really took off till age 30….I wonder if voters view him somewhat differently because he never had the crazy numbers at a young enough age that they could dream on what he could be?
Also, right or wrong (hint, the answer is wrong), it makes some people question his use of PED. His being a first rate asshole makes it even easier to make that conclusion in your mind. I wouldn’t dream of giving the BBWAA enough credit to separate Schilling the person from Schilling the ballplayer.
Not going to comment on PEDs, but I agree that Schilling the person does not deserve to be in the HOF. And, I don’t mind that this part influences the BBWAA members decision. I think that character should play a part in whether a player gets in.
Even if “character” should influence who is in the Hall of Fame, Schilling is a very poor example. Even if one hates his politics and thinks that he was a showboating, arrogant asshole – which has long been a common view for reasons that have nothing to do with politics – so what? These aren’t claims that he cheated at the sport or did something for which he should go to prison. It’s pretty far down the road to saying, “Hey, I won’t vote for that guy just because I don’t like him.”
ok but the hall of fame is the part of baseball that goes down in history, and therefore it represents what the game stood for. having pieces of shit all over the HOF is gonna represent the game as nothing more than a toilet bowl. it’s time to clean it up.
Randy Johnson’s first truly dominant season was in his 29-30 season.
I always felt like Schilling was mostly overshadowed in his career, mostly by Johnson and later Pedro. He will get in, in time.
These guys are eerily similar. Look at some of these cherry-picked regular season stats-
Bumgarner, Schilling
Winning %: 59.8%, 59.7%
ERA- : 82, 80
K/9: 8.89, 8.60
K/BB: 4.29, 4.38
WHIP: 1.10, 1.14
I know that ERA is far from the best indicator, but Bumgarner’s (2.99) is half a run better than Schilling’s (3.46), and that’s still the first stat that a lot of voters will look at. Hopefully Bumgarner can keep this going for another 2000 IP, lol
I feel like Schilling is somewhat hurt by pitching in an era where many of his contemporaries where some of the all-time greats (Maddux, Clemens, Johnson, Pedro, etc.). While he was very, VERY good, there always seemed to be a line of demarcation between him and those top, top tier guys. Bumgarner currently doesn’t seem to have that same problem….while Kershaw is clearly recognized as the best pitcher of his generation, Bumgarner is viewed as at least being in the conversation for #2. Unfortunately for Schilling, that could never really be said for him (although I do believe he deserves to be in HOF).
Bumgarner’s best Cy Young finish so far is 4th. Schilling finished 2nd 3 times. Mussina was top-5 six times.
A lot of Bumgarner’s contemporaries have much better regular season hardware collections. He’s never led the league in any thing people care about. If you get nitpicky and won’t count Verlander or Felix in the same era, then it is a bit tough, but even then it is an awfully crowded field. You could call him #2, or you could call him #10.
Edit: You could argue that Price is easily better too (this year notwithstanding)
I agree with TKDC. Except when the postseason rolls around, no one except Giants’ fans would say that Bumgarner is really in the discussion for #2, and we get booed if we try to say it.
Bumgarner ranks 10th/9th, 12th/10th, 19th/34th, 23rd/20th, 35th/44th and 10th/45th in fWAR/RA9-WAR in 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012 and 2011, respectively. Over the entire period, he’s 7th in fWAR behind Price, Kershaw, Sale, Hernandez, Scherzer and Verlander and 11th in RA9-WAR behind them and also Cueto, Greinke, Lester and Hamels. I see really no argument for him being top-5 in his peak or better than back end top-10 in any given season. Meanwhile, Schilling led MLB in fWAR in 2002 and finished second in both fWAR and RA9-WAR in 2001, 2nd in fWAR in 1998 and 3rd in fWAR in 1997 while having top-10 to -15 seasons in 2000 and 2004.
Schilling was third in MLB in fWAR from 1997 to 2004 and third in RA9-WAR in that period. People ahead of him didn’t include non-HoFers, and I don’t think all of Verlander, Scherzer, Felix, Sale and Price make it, much less all of Cueto, Greinke, Lester and Hamels, though several of these guys will. Ahead of Schilling were just Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez, two first-ballot Hall of Fame legends.
Yeah, based on his regular season numbers right now he’s not even close to being HoF-worthy. You could make a legitimate argument that he’s never once been a top 5 pitcher in the league.
Here are his ranks among qualified MLB pitchers since 2013:
2016: fWAR 9th, FIP- 15th, ERA- 5th
2015: fWAR 12th, FIP- 16th, ERA- 16th
2014: fWAR 18th, FIP- 19th, ERA- 29th
2013: fWAR 23rd, FIP- 24th, ERA- 18th
As Dave suggested, any Bumgarner candidacy would be heavily based on his postseason heroics, anchored by solid and sustained regular season performance.
yep, i guess the question becomes how long does he have to keep up a mid-80’s FIP- for before he gets consideration, his postseason play will most likely need to carry most of the weight
Tom Glavine is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but never ranked higher than eighth in fWAR or eleventh in FIP-. He ranked in the top five in ERA- twice — 1991 (5th) and 1998 (3rd).
Oh, but those pitcher wins! Award voters have come a long way, but still have a way to go.
just looked at his stats. he does NOT deserve to be in the Hall. career FIP- of 94, and even his career ERA- of 86 isn’t that impressive. and he never even had a season with 6 fWAR.
Except Tom Glavine made a career out of making sabre-metrics look like shit. Not that sabre-metrics is shit, but there are exceptions to every rule. Glavine is an exception. It’s one thing to have one season that out performs the peripherals. It’s another to have an entire career that does it. At that point, you just have to tip your cap and accept that he truly was a great pitcher, regardless of what the peripherals tell us.
In what way did he make sabermetrics look like shit? Beating his fip and xfip? Sabermetrics is incorporating quality of contact and exit velocities now. Fip, and xfip were breakthroughs sure, doesn’t mean that was the end game.
86 ERA- over 4400 IP is some mighty impressive career bulk. Glavine got some expanded strike zones over his career, which certainly helped, but he beat his K/BB/HR numbers regularly and put up monster career value with some runs-allowed-peak. He’s a deserving HoFer. If Bumgarner gets to Glavine’s level of career bulk while only allowing his ERA- to rise a few points and accrues that type of value, he’ll almost assuredly be a HoFer.
It seems amazing to me how far Schilling and Mussina are from the Hall of Fame. Their numbers bear their candidacies out; they both rank in the top 20 all-time for pitching WAR.
The problem is Mussina isn’t liked by the writers, and Schilling isn’t liked by anyone.
It’s a farce. If you look over the 1986-2016 period (to pick an arbitrary period that sounds like a round 30 years but is actually 31), Mussina and Schilling are 5/6 in career fwar, and to date the BBWAA has indeed “shrugged” at their candidacy.
Looking down the list:
8th – Kevin Brown. One-and-done. By all accounts pretty unlikable – but 2% of the vote is outrageous.
9th – Andy Pettitte. You’d likely be laughed out of the room as a Yankee homer if you described Pettite as a no-doubt Hall of Famer. (And this is without considering his own post season legacy)
12th – Sabathia. Historically great, at least by fWAR. Not (remotely) thought of that way.
And so on.
Something has to give.
Yeah, or they won’t put a starting pitcher in for ~20 years, when Kershaw is eligible.
I think the attitude towards SP will begin changing soon. Mussina and Schilling will make it. I’d like to see Hershiser enshrined this year and then Saberhagen or Cone enshrined in two years. Next year, Johan becomes eligible though he won’t make it, and Halladay will make it soon after he’s eligible. Sabathia has a fair shot if he can hang around and be productive. The Today’s Game ballot will take a look at Brown in 2022 or so, and he could get a nice look there. Pettitte probably won’t make it, but Pettitte pitches for, what, eighteen years to get his 65 or so WAR and was very steady with little peak value. I’m okay with Pettitte not making it. I think Felix, Verlander, Kershaw and Sale have fair chances. Beyond them, though, maybe Greinke with a strong finish, and I guess it’s possible someone like Lester, Cueto, Price, Scherzer finishes strong enough to make it.
I have no doubt that Schilling has been hurt by his post-baseball actions
This is my feeling, as well. While also agreeing with Dave that Bumgarner has a LOT of work to do, I’m thinking the near legendary post-season narrative surrounding Bumgarner could help him push him over the top (if he gets there) like it will help Mo Rivera and David Ortiz, who will both almost certainly get in despite playing positions that voters have mostly ignored. Whereas Schilling’s shenanigans are probably having an equal and opposite effect on his candidacy.
If MadBum keeps hitting well, that will also help his chances significantly, as that could add 10 – 15 WAR to his pitching WAR.
And I agree that the writers don’t like Schilling, so that’s a big reason they haven’t voted him in. While I can’t stand his politics, that shouldn’t matter – he’s earned induction into the Hall of Fame.
Go through the timeline and that doesn’t really add up. As the post notes, Schilling got his highest Hall of Fame vote share this year (52%). So his vote share ultimately went up through his big Twitter fight with Keith Law in 2014 and the comments that resulted in him being suspended by ESPN in 2015. (The votes were in before he was fired by ESPN this year.)
What makes more sense, and some people might forget, is that Schilling was strenuously disliked by a lot of other people in and around baseball when he was a player. Ed Wade once said, “Every fifth day Curt’s our horse. The other four days, he’s our horse’s ass.” JIm Fregosi called him “Red Light Curt” because he so liked making sure he got on TV even on days when he didn’t pitch. He had multiple public feuds with writers and columnists – particularly relevant for Hall of Fame voting by the BBWAA – including saying that Pedro Gomez and Jon Heyman fabricate stories.
The fact that Madison Bumgarner is a basically-mute country bumpkin will aid him.
#puigyourfriend?
Schilling is likely a victim of being personally unlikeable and having outspoken and often controversial political views that are at odds with many of the voters.
I wouldn’t quite call him a victim. If writers dislike Schilling enough to apply the character clause – because he’s unlikable (your word) – and not vote for him, then he’s not really being wronged (or victimized).
Doesn’t holding back an award that someone earned through their relevant contributions simply because you don’t like them fit the very definition of being “wronged”?
If the only voting criteria is the play on the field, then sure. But for baseball HOF voting the writers are supposed to also take a player’s character into account. Character is one of the criteria that they are supposed to judge.
In reality it’s probably less of an “I won’t vote for him because I personally don’t like him” and more of an “I won’t vote for him because a lot of people dislike him right now and he would bring unwanted negative attention to the baseball HOF for the things he’s said/done”. No one wrongs Schilling by taking this stance.
I honestly don’t think the voters all feel he’s a HoFer. I’ve had arguments with people who cite his injury-riddled seasons, high raw ERA, lack of wins and lack of Cy Youngs as the reasons he’s a no for them. I personally find it ridiculous. He’s a clear HoFer.