ZiPS Playoff Probabilities Are Live!

For your prognosticating convenience, we’ve created a new, live section of the playoff odds page to house the ZiPS projections for each game of the postseason. These projections are a supplement to the normal FanGraphs Playoff Odds. They are not a replacement for the existing ones, which combine ZiPS and Steamer. These projections are arrived at similarly to how ZiPS does the roster strength projections during the regular season, only with roster constructions that reflect the very different way players are used during the playoffs. Unlike the regular season model, ZiPS uses projected starters in order to make a more accurate, game-by-game projection; during the regular season, ZiPS uses the actual schedule, but without knowledge of which player will start each game.

To aid in modeling these probabilities, the full model of ZiPS is used, which includes updated split projections in order to (hopefully!) enhance the projections’ accuracy. There’s obviously a great deal of speculation as to who will start these games; these odds will be updated continually as we get closer to first pitch. Projections for the Division Series that will be played against the respective Wild Card winners will populate after the Wild Card games have concluded. For the moment, you’ll see their tabs grayed out.

In addition to game-by-game projections, you’ll also find series odds, which will update as each series progresses.

Since FanGraphs offers a handful of projection tools, we have summarized in table form three of the most relevant for the postseason: the FanGraphs Game Odds, the FanGraphs Playoff Odds, and the ZiPS Game-By-Game.

FanGraphs Postseason Projection Tools Comparison
Feature FG Game Odds FG Playoff Odds ZiPS Game-By-Game
Projects Game Results YES NO YES
Projects Post Season Series Results NO YES YES
Projects Future Post Season Rounds NO YES NO
Lineup / Roster Game Lineup Projected Overall
Playing Time
Projected Game Lineup
Accounts for Starting Pitcher YES NO YES
Base Projection System Steamer/ZiPS Steamer/ZiPS ZiPS Only
Updates Before/during game Shortly after game ends Nightly

Let us know in the comments what other stuff you might be interested in seeing regarding these playoff projections!

We hoped you liked reading ZiPS Playoff Probabilities Are Live! by Dan Szymborski!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs




Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

newest oldest most voted
stever20
Member
Member
stever20

You have the Cards rotation totally wrong. Flaherty going game 2 for sure after pitching on Sunday. Mikolas probably going game 1. Hudson 3 and Wainwright 4. Then Flaherty in game 5.

kbpms2
Member
kbpms2

Does it really matter right now? It will update once the rotation is released. It’s a fine estimate for now.