Introducing the 2018 MLB Draft Board

Today we’ve rolled out the 2018 MLB Draft version of THE BOARD, but rather than just point you to an article explaining how the minor-league version works, we’ll take a second to go over the differences between the draft and minor-league versions.

Obviously, the amount of information we have for these players is different than what we have on minor leaguers, so we think the presentation of our information should reflect that reality. While you can look at a pro prospect’s stat line and get a quick idea of how advanced they are, amateur stats (particularly outside of the top couple college conferences) often don’t tell a coherent story. This, along with the varying types of prospects in the draft, means that we need to be more specific about the indicators of projection rather than just our median tool grades. We capture that, in the minor leagues, with ‘variance’; for amateur players, however, we felt we needed more detail so that it’s not necessary to memorize every report to quickly compare players.

This is manifested in the columns marked Athleticism, Frame, Performance, and Delivery. All four apply to pitchers and the first three apply to hitters. Every player is graded on a five-point scale of either —, -, +, ++ or neutral (blank). In addition to age and some other factors not captured here, these factors are influential for us when attempting to craft the rankings. It should help better establish, at a reader’s glance, the relative strengths and weaknesses of each player. Sometimes that’s necessary, as the tool grades often end up so close to 50 that it’s hard to differentiate these players without breaking down mechanics on video or memorizing all the small separators in our reports. This also more closely mirrors how big league draft rooms work, with selective categories (like 95+ mph fastball, scoring well on a mental skills test, etc.) getting their own stickers put on specific draft magnets so that separating qualities beyond tools can be identified more quickly after the first few rounds.

Performance is self-explanatory and we consider level of competition in that grade, too. Delivery is also pretty self-explanatory, and there are some cases where pitchers need to make delivery adjustments. If we think a relatively quick fix is possible, however, we’ll leave them at neutral. Frame is a grade on how a player’s body composition and physical projection interact with the tools; it helps to explain how a pitcher could add velocity or a hitter could grow into power. Athleticism is a little more tricky. For pitchers, it’s the looseness of their actions, ability to repeat their delivery, visible in how they field their position and get off the mound, and the capacity to gain or keep present stuff rather than lose it. For hitters, it’s more than just the power/strength/speed or “football athleticism,” as we call it. It also includes actions in a player’s swing and the field, body control and overall explosion between the lines, adding up to more of a baseball-specific athleticism.

We’ve also included the Future Value (FV) for each prospect so you can see how he will fit into the minor-league version of THE BOARD after signing. In addition, for the 50 FV or greater players, we have slotted them in our updated (and soon-to-be released) minor-league prospect rankings to give a better sense of how they fit in the prospect landscape. Some of the players are ranked past 100 since we’re going to rank every 50 FV player, and there are 128 of those right now between pro prospects with eligibility for the list and draft prospects. We have also used 40+ and 45+ FV grades to further differentiate tiers of prospects, which will be included for minor-league prospects in the next update.

We’ve decided to list exactly 131 players in our draft rankings because that’s how many we feel are 40 FV quality or better — and thus we’ve evaluated to be of quality to appear on the minor league team prospect lists. That number may change by a handful, though, as we get closer to draft day. We’ll also be adding nearly 200 more names in lower tiers of prospects in the coming days, player we feel would appear among the Others of Note section on team prospect lists. They will be ranked within the four demographics (hitter/pitcher, high school/college) with additional video and information.

We will also add a double asterisk before the names of any seniors to denote their diminished negotiation leverage, as that is a big factor for whether they go ahead of or behind where their talent projects. In this top-131 version, Oregon State lefty Luke Heimlich (read his report for more about why he is ranked) is the only true senior, but Wake Forest righty Griffin Roberts is a 22-year-old junior, with Arkansas righty Blaine Knight and Stanford righty Tristan Beck both just behind him age-wise as pitchers that didn’t sign as eligible sophomores last year and are seen as motivated to sign this year.

We hoped you liked reading Introducing the 2018 MLB Draft Board by Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel!

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sadtrombone
Member
sadtrombone

This is awesome, thanks!

And yeah, I’d agree on Luke Heimlich…blech.

baycommuter
Member
Member
baycommuter

I know a former juvenile MURDERER who wound up a perfectly good citizen with a respectable white-collar career, because the records were sealed and employers didn’t learn about them. That’s how the juvenile system is supposed to work, so people don’t get their careers wrecked for something awful they did when they were 13. Heimlich certainly never will be hired as a kids’ coach or any other youth baseball-related position and if he isn’t drafted chances are good he winds up living under a bridge in Portland or Seattle, which is what the system is supposed to prevent.

McTavvy
Member
McTavvy

I do get a little frustrated with the discussion about Heimlich because of what you mentioned in regards to sealed records but also because the reporting that led to this becoming national news was not fully researched. There is a lot more to this story than a lot of people know, it helps that I am a higher Beaver fan and so I have been able to keep up on just about everything invoking this story.

The thing that isn’t often mentioned is that he admitted guilt because his lawyer and family felt it would be the easiest path, because of the sealed records, and as a way to get closure for the family effected by this. However Luke has always maintained he did not commit a crime. Furthermore, there was a letter written by his lawyer that explained and elaborated on the information and reporting helping better understand the situation. What I am trying to get at is that this story is much more complicated than most of the news stories would have you believe and that we need to remember that as baycommuter said, there *is* a reason for juvenile records to work the way they do.

Pirates Hurdles
Member
Pirates Hurdles

That story is one of the stupidest things I’ve ever heard. No one that is innocent is pleading guilty to molesting a small child because its easier, come on man.

Original Greaser Bob
Member
Original Greaser Bob

Nah fuck pedophiles, especially ones who lie about it. But please keep up the moral equivalence for the up-voters.

VincentGuilds
Member
VincentGuilds

While I generally agree with your sentiment, what gives me pause is that he was fourteen when he committed the crime.

I know the quick answer is “well the girl he molested was four”. And yeah, that is some terrible truly horrible stuff. Abuse like that can affect a persons life.

But it is hard for me to label someone as a pedophile when they are that young. At fourteen we haven’t even became a person yet, we are still growing and developing mentally. And for that matter, who knows why he molested her in the first place. It is common for victims of sexual abuse to abuse others in turn.

Point being, we don’t know if he is the same person as he was when he did that horrible crime.

In the end, it is a hell of a risk for a team to take in drafting him, so not sure if factually it matters.

Dooduh
Member
Dooduh

I was initially inclined to say that no one will touch him (no pun intended) bc of the negative pr (btw not bc baseball teams are capable of making a moral judgment), but teams have associated with known domestic abusers… guys who have been investigated and found to have violated the league’s domestic conduct policy. So, I’m not certain that no team will take a shot on Heimlich.

As to the case itself, yeah we will undoubtedly see lots of people jumping onto the easy moral high ground here trying to blackball this guy knowing absolutely nothing about the details of the episode. Not coming here to say that I know any more than those people. I don’t. But I do know that whatever ‘story’ has been leaked to the media is surely not the entire set of facts, and not having all the facts makes it impossible to adequately judge (much less blackball) anybody.

I think someone will take him later in the draft. I mean, what will make them any ‘worse’ for doing so than OSU for allowing him to be on their school team?