Is Nick Swisher Done?

Nick Swisher is, in a word, divisive. His larger-than-Brohio personality tends to overshadow his abilities on the field. Put another way: almost everybody has an opinion on Swisher, few of which are based solely on his playing ability.

After you post a .208/.278/.331 line with 8 home runs in just over 400 plate appearances, perhaps you want more folks focused on your broisterous off-field brosona than an injury-plagued disappointment.

If the rumors drifting out of the GM meetings are to believed, Cleveland isn’t swayed by their popular player’s personality, instead focusing on what it might take to be rid of the remaining two years and $30 million (plus a $14 million vesting option for 2017) left on the contract he signed in ahead of the 2013 season. Ken Rosenthal intimates that Cleveland would like to free themselves of Swisher’s deal, perhaps taking a different bad contract coming back the other way.

Is there any daring or deep-pocketed team out there willing to roll the dice with Swisher’s age-34 and 35 seasons? Is $30 million of their precious payroll worth the gamble that Swisher returns to his previous levels of production?

The single biggest hurdle between Swisher and productivity in 2015 is health. His season ended in August as both his knees gave him trouble all season long, a problem he first observed towards the end of Spring Training. In the end, he required “debridements” in both his knees, cleaning up all manner of mess and scar tissue. How much did Swisher’s physical issues contribute to the worst season of his career?

It’s easy to dismiss everything as a product of a weakened lower half, but a rough 2014 together with his 2013 season suggests a player in decline. just not as steep as he fell off last year. The uptick in strikeouts — and subsequent drop in walk rate — is the ledge upon which his entire bounce-back teeters.

Swisher’s increasing whiff rate as the year went on, coupled with the increase in breaking balls thrown his way, is a matter of perspective. A sympathetic soul might chalk all his struggles up to injury. A weakened base slowed his bat, causing him to cheat on the fastball and leaving him exposed to the larger doses of breaking balls. If he’s healthy and able to produce more rotation with his lower half, suddenly he has a quicker bat and voila! Swisher’s fixed! He did chase more in 2014, a fact the optimists among us happily brush under the injury rug.

On top of more strikeouts, fewer walks, and more chases, Swisher managed to hit more pop-ups and generally made worse contact as the year wore on and his knees wore down. Suddenly there is a mounting pile of evidence suggesting this hitter just isn’t that great anymore. Any expected regression gets held down by the weight of rapidly deteriorating skills.

A rising strikeout rate for a player in his thirties isn’t a death sentence on its own. Strong hitters like Josh Willingham and Carlo Beltran started striking out more in their mid-thirties while still producing at similar levels to their prime. Beltran makes for a noteworthy comparison because he, like Swisher, is a switch-hitter. Beltran and Swisher posted surprisingly similar numbers through their respective peaks (126 wRC+ for Beltran compared to 121 wRC+ for Swisher over 5000 PAs between their age-25 and 32 seasons.)

After Beltran’s 2011 strikeout rate increased by the same magnitude as Swisher’s year-over-year (between five and six percent), it slipped back to its previous levels, though his walk rate plummeted and is yet to fully recover. Like Swisher, his whiff rate increased as did his willingness to chase out of the zone. Beltran reversed the trend slightly the following season but he’s clearly a different, and significantly worse, hitter now.

The inability to separate injury from decline is the greatest roadblock to any Swisher trade. Even if Cleveland kicks in some money to lubricate the proceedings, there are only so many medical reports one can pore over before acknowledging the risk of such a gamble. An expensive gamble on a player who isn’t likely to offer much in the way of defensive value. Barring a return to the outfield, that is. Another largely health dependant factor, like everything so far.

As Mike Petriello noted earlier this month, no team needs an upgrade at DH more than the one that already employs Swisher: the Cleveland Indians. No team can better assess his health,  working closely with the training staff to build a rehab plan as he did. No team is better positioned to make an informed decision as to his ability to contribute in 2015 and beyond.

The reality of Major League baseball is such that Cleveland might choose to part ways with Swisher for economic reasons that supersede the baseball forces at play. If Swisher can put together two seasons similar to Beltran’s 2012/13 seasons (5 WAR), $30 million is more than a fair price. The vesting option — requiring 550 plate appearances in 2016 and a passed physical — complicates matters further if you believe his struggles are all health related. If he’s healthy and good, suddenly the math changes and it’s $44 million you inherit.

The odds are stacked against him and Steamer seems him as barely above-average at the plate (105 wRC+) but he remains a decent bounce-back candidate for any opportunistic team. There’s a good hitter and good teammate lurking in there somewhere, two healthy knees are all it should take to break him free.