Justin Upton Shouldn’t Cost More Than Jason Heyward
Justin Upton is probably going to get traded. If you believe Joel Sherman’s source, there’s no probably about it; Upton is the next Brave out of town. And it makes sense; the team is clearly retooling for the future, while Upton is entering the final year of his contract. If the Braves don’t think they’re going to sign him long-term, better to trade him now than settle a compensation pick next year.
The question will be the price. Sherman reports that the asking price for Upton is going to be higher than the return they got for Jason Heyward, and that was already a pretty solid package. As I noted this morning, teams are paying through the moon for right-handed power right now, and so Upton will be an attractive option for teams looking to balance out their line-ups.
But even with the advantage of his handedness, I’d like to suggest that the price for Upton should be less than what St. Louis gave up for Heyward. And I promise, this isn’t another discussion of Heyward’s defensive metrics. I can make the point without even needing to cite UZR or DRS, because the offensive gap just isn’t as large as people think. Here are their respective lines over the past three seasons.
| Name | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | BsR | Off | OFF/600 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Heyward | 1,740 | 0.266 | 0.345 | 0.431 | 0.341 | 116 | 10.4 | 43.2 | 14.9 |
| Justin Upton | 1,912 | 0.271 | 0.350 | 0.462 | 0.354 | 124 | 9.2 | 60.4 | 19.0 |
Upton’s line is a little better, thanks to the power difference, but the resulting gap is pretty minimal: about four runs every 600 plate appearances. That’s not nothing, but it certainly doesn’t support the narrative that Upton is some kind of offensive star while Heyward is just a glove guy. And keep in mind, this isn’t really an apples-to-apples comparison, because the last three years compare Upton’s 24-to-26 seasons against Heyward’s 22-to-24 seasons. Heyward is at a younger point on the growth chart, and should have more expected improvement ahead of him, while Upton is probably getting pretty close to being a finished product.
That age factor is why Steamer actually projects Heyward as the better offensive player next year, giving him a forecast of +19.6 OFF/600, compared to +18.7 for Upton. A one run difference is nothing, of course, so if you wanted to put less emphasis on the age factor, you could argue in favor of Upton and be well within the realm of reason. But the point is that it’s probably closer than you’d think, given their 2014 numbers.
Even if we give Upton a significant boost for the handedness factor — and the differing treatment of Ike Davis and Billy Butler suggests we probably should — to account for the fact that the market is paying a premium for right-handed offense right now, we have to offset that by noting that Upton is set to make $14.5 million this year, $6 million more than Heyward. $6 million might not buy you any kind of star anymore, but it’s still some additional value that Heyward offered over Upton.
And, of course, there is a separation on defense. Even if you don’t believe in the range suggested by the metrics, pretty much everyone will admit that Heyward’s glove is quite a bit better. The Braves fans who filled out the Fan’s Scouting Report gave Heyward an 81 (out of 100), compared to a 41 for Upton. Even just using their career average numbers from the FSR — 73 for Heyward, 55 for Upton — there’s a legitimate gap there. Maybe you think defense isn’t worth all that much, but you can’t reasonably argue that it’s worth nothing.
Upton has been marginally better at the plate than Heyward throughout his career. He’s two years older. He’s more expensive. He’s worse defensively. Yes, it’s right-handed power, but it’s still a less valuable overall skillset. If the Braves can turn Justin Upton into another version of the Shelby Miller package, they should be pretty happy about it.
And perhaps the fact that the Braves are considering trading Upton and then using the savings to sign Yasmany Tomas should tell us something. Tomas, like Upton, has significant right-handed power, but doesn’t look like he’s going to provide a lot of value in other areas of the game. In Kiley McDaniel’s write-up on Tomas, he projected his upside thusly:
.275/.350/.480 with 25-30 homers, fringy defense & baserunning value in left field.
Justin Upton’s career batting line? .274/.354/.476, and he’s averaged 23 home runs per 600 plate appearances in his career. He was an above average baserunner in prior years, but as he’s gotten bigger, that seems to be diminishing, and he’s probably something like an average corner outfielder with the glove. In other words, Kiley’s forecast for Tomas’ upside is almost exactly Justin Upton.
Of course, Upton is a more known commodity, and so trading for him instead of signing Tomas provides a lower risk profile, which is worth something. But signing Tomas means you get more than one year of value, and the higher risk profile is going to get factored into his contract price; there’s almost no way Upton would sign for the same $70-$100 million price tags we’ve heard floated for Tomas. And, of course, you don’t have to give up any talent to sign Tomas.
Which is why it would probably be a pretty nifty little move for the Braves to trade Upton, open up a spot and cash for Tomas, and then use that to sign a younger/cheaper version of essentially the same skillset. Maybe Tomas won’t turn out to be as good as Upton. It’s likely he’ll have less 2015 value. There are reasons to prefer Upton, but those reasons don’t look strong enough to me to also surrender the kinds of significant young talent it took to get Heyward.
Upton’s a good player, not a great one. It’s one year of value, and it comes at a $15 million price tag. There are legitimate alternatives on the free agent market. Upton has value, especially to a team in win-now mode, but he shouldn’t cost what Jason Heyward cost. Any team that pays the Heyward price for one of year Justin Upton will likely end up regretting it.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I agree with you as far as current trade value given the difference in contracts, but what about when they both hit FA after next season? I would bet on Upton to get a higher AAV.
My initial reaction, when I saw that the Braves were looking to get more for Upton than Heyward, was the extension angle. Obviously, there’s no guarantee that Upton will sign an extension wherever he’s traded, but I think it will be easier to work one out with him than it would be Heyward. Dave recently wrote that we can probably expect Heyward’s extension to, at the very least, be in the neighborhood of $200MM. But Upton will certainly sign for fewer years, and may even sign for less AAV. I think teams probably looked at Heyward as a surefire one year rental. But Upton, having already signed one big contract, and being a couple years older, is probably more likely to be extended by the acquiring club.
I agree. The Cardinals paid for one year of a star player and a poor chance of signing him to a long-term deal during their exclusive negotiating window. It’s quite possible that the Braves know that Upton will be open to extending with his new club, and that that will be one piece of the negotiations.
And I agree with Dave’s view that Upton will end up with a shorter contract for a lower AAV, whether that comes as an extension or a free agent contract. People always forget about Heyward’s age…
I don’t see any reason to think Upton would sign for any kind of discount. He’s going to be a 27 year old 3-4 win free agent. That’s going to get him paid. I don’t see any reason to think he’ll get less than someone like Jacoby Ellsbury.
Agreed. I would expect zero probability that Upton will extend. Everything in his presentation for the last few years has pointed toward hitting the open market. And regarding extensions, two teams with significant investment tied up in him—high draft pick in AZ, major trade pieces given for him in ATL—who both got at least one very good season out of him have had collectively zero buzz about doing an extension. Maybe they were turned off for off field reasons, but it looks from the outside more as if Upton’s representation completely quashed the idea of an extension. The only way to extend Upton in my view would be with a huge premium contract, likely going to seven years. That’s not the smart move for a guy who has ALWAYS been good not great, but there are a lot of teams who think they’re smart and know they have the money.
Anyone acquiring Upton, and somebody will, should be expecting him to walk next winter, with a QA attached to at least net back a pick. While it’s not a fair comparison, consider what David Price brought back, and that was for one year plus one stretch run, far more service value from one of the best starting pitchers in the game. I don’t see Upton getting back anything like Price’s package, which by ‘more than Heyward’ seems to be what Atlanta thinks they can get somebody to cough up. A mid-rotation starter with 3+ years of service time would be about the ceiling, or a serviceable outfielder and a good not great starting pitching prospect. Those might be overpays frankly (although the QA pick takes the sting out), but aren’t unreasonable for some team in win-now mode.
It’s worth noting that everyone’s second favorite putative chump target in Jack Zd in Seattle both has a deep farm system of assets and a need for Upton even on a one year, making that org one obvious ‘pay me more’ target—but Jack Zd didn’t get chumped when Price got moved. Seattle paid fair value to get back a one-and-stretch outfielder they needed, who then didn’t perform at all. Think given that that Seattle is going to overpay for Upton? Someone may, but I don’t see it there; the offer should be no more than that deal, and frankly a little less given Upton’s 2015 cost, uninspiring D, and high probability of departure. Wouldn’t surprise me if the Yankees get in on this one though.
I think Upton’s shipping out may take awhile too unless Atlanta drops it’s price soon. Whoever is in on Tomas and Moncada but whiffs on both will see a lot more shine on Upton thereafter, and those two quasi-auctions may take some time to complete. We’re already to see some of those dropping out of those two bids making choices elsewhere for power, such as the ChiSox, for whom Upton would in many ways have been a real ‘org fit.’
So –
Yes, indeed: see Jeffersonianairplane, for all your headline *correction* needs! Our motto is, YOU write ’em, YOU post ’em, they YOU sit back and relax, as WE fix ’em all up!
Wa- hold on a second…Breaking News! This just in from Missourida:
‘Justin Upton Shouldn’t Cost More Than *A* Just Heyward *Or So*’
Did you have a stroke while you were typing this? I have absolutely no idea what you meant. None.
I really like this as a baseball version of Game of Thrones’ iron price. I would nominate the action of hitting a screaming line drive to the wall in right-center that is improbably speared by a sprinting right fielder as “paying the Heyward price.”
Thanks for the chuckle on a Friday afternoon.
Sponsored by Craig Ironhead Heyward.
My favourite line from this article was “teams are paying through the moon,” an amusing cross between “paying through the nose” and “ask for the moon”. I’m imagining the Cardinals sending a large suitcase full of cash on a rocketship to the moon, where the Braves will have somebody pick it up.
“Moon” is a colloquialism for “ass,” therefore, a team will be paying through… you get it.
A rocket so densely-packed with cash it punches right through the moon and exits the other side. Or lodges in its eye
If you instead the last two seasons as your sample, there is a pretty evident offensive disparity. AVG and OBP nearly identical, but Justin shows significantly more power:
Heyward .264/.351/.401, .335 wOBA, 114 wRC+, 2.6 BsR, 19.3 Off, 10.6 Off/600
Justin .267/.348/.478, .360 wOBA, 131 wRC+, 6.2 BsR, 50.5 Off, 23.6 Off/600
Yeah, three years is a pretty standard measure, but in addition to this, if you include 2011 where Upton was 4th in the MVP, the gap gets bigger, too.
So you are arguing for his numbers not being reliable by using a smaller sample size?
No. He’s saying that picking 3 years is making the best possible case for Heyward. If you extend it or kick out injury filled years (since we are trying to measure real talent level) I think it’s fairly clear that Upton is a significantly better offensive contributor. I’d also suggest that Upton is trending up or at least holding stead. Heyward has been trending down for years.
Heyward’s offense has also declined all three years, from a .351 WOBA to .344 to .329, while Upton’s has increased all three years, from .341 to .347 to .363.
I’m sure some is random variance, some might be Heyward’s health, or some might be Heyward not yet hitting his prime (while Upton is maybe just at the peak of his).
But I think there’s also a case to be made that Upton is improving, while Heyward is declining.
I’d take it up to the edge of this statement, but no further:
“Upton’s results have improved the past few years, while Heyward’s have declined.”
Yep. Most 3-year analysis uses a weight factor giving more effect to most recent year. Doesn’t appear that has been done here.
Also, scaling to PA/600 skips over Heyward’s missed time.
Because he is improving and Heyward is declining. Upton just had a better season with the bat than Heyward has ever had, and the only year Heyward was close was when he was 20-year-old rookie.
Heyward is a sabermetric darling, so some analysts selectively choose statistics to paint him in the best possible light. I believe in sabermetrics as much as anyone, but I also believe that when a player comes into the league at 20 and then hasn’t progressed an inch in four years since, you have to start wondering if he’s ever going to.
I’d rather have Upton than Heyward going forward. If Heyward loses a step on defense or sees his already mediocre offense decline further, he’s not worth what his asking price is going to be.
Yup. Defense declines earlier than offense.
His power plays in any stadium, which is in great demand as offensive levels continue to decline. Upton can carry a team by himself for a month or two, he’s a legitimate 3/4 hitter.
The biggest worry is that his brother’s career completely tanked once he signed a big deal. Will history repeat itself?
Justin signed for 6 years, $51 million in 2010. That must have seemed like an unfathomably large amount of money to him at that time. That’s certainly more predictive than anything his brother did that may or may not have been related to sudden wealth.
Ridiculous
Very true–he hits really long home runs. According to ESPN’s home run tracker, he had the 7th-longest average true distance in 2014, second-longest in 2013, 4th-longest in 2012 (although he hit one too few to qualify for their overall rankings), and the longest by quite a bit in 2011.
In the past two seasons, he’s hit 56 homers. Only 15 of them have been shorter than 400 feet. Three of those 15 went 398 feet, one went 395, and one went 390. In 2013, only 3 of his homers were shorter than 400 feet. None of those homers have been shorter than 350 feet, by Home Run Tracker’s True Distance measure.
Did the Braves get credited with any extra runs for how much longer his dings were donged than just yer everyday garden variety homer hitter?
Appropos to both your comment and nothing at all, there was a game in Washington during the summer where Hunter Pence was thrown a purpose pitch somewhere over a foot above the letter, closer than not to his eye level, which he managed to hammer on a line over the CF fence. Made all the highlights, made a big splash in the SF papers and blogs, DC writers were all over the Nats for comments, everyone expressed awe … Giants, of course, got credited with only 1 run for that dinger and went on to lose the game.
The Braves didn’t get more points but it’s a good sign that his power will translate well to any stadium.
And in 2013, he didn’t hit his first sub-400 foot homer until August 3rd. I don’t know what that means but it sounds impressive.
Means exactly what it meant when Ted Kluszewski and Frank Howard and Don Mincher and Dave Kingman did the same sort of thing. Sound and fury …
I think the point of that is that his power will play in a place like, say Safeco, where power hitters go to wear divots in the warning track. This makes him more tradeable than other power hitters, potentially.
Just let Avattoir keep beating me.
lol k
B.J. has nothing to do with his brother’s future going forward, and B.J.’s problem is that is swing mechanics are just completely fouled up, anyway. There’s an article about that here: http://www.talkingchop.com/2014/11/17/7223797/bj-upton-is-terrible-but-he-isnt-lazy
Or maybe there really is an Upton curse. Verlander tanked as soon as he started hanging around an Upton too much.
If you extend the sample a year, you end up with a pretty significant difference, offensively, between the two. From 2011-2014:
Heyward – 112 wRC+
Upton – 131 wRC+
2012 was a season that Justin Upton spent playing with a thumb injury, which probably had a lot to do with his measly 109 wRC+ that year. 2011 was, for Heyward, a Similar season. Everyone knew he was playing hurt, and he was playing poorly, and he had Chipper Jones questioning his desire to play and all that hooplah. So if we look at the past four seasons for each of them, relieving each of their injury-saddled seasons, you get (wRC+):
Heyward: 2012- 121, 2013- 120, 2014- 110
Upton: 2011- 141, 2013- 128, 2014- 133
I agree that the difference probably isn’t as big as the Braves are trying to make it seem. But I don’t think painting Jason Heyward as Upton’s near-equal on offense is fair, either. Upton is probably a true talent 130-140 wRC+ guy, and Heyward is probably 110-120.
I’ll buy that.
I think your point about Upton is fair, but I also think you may be underselling Heyward. I think his true-talent wRC+ could easily be over 120. Steamer projects him for 127 next year.
Yeah, we’ve all been waiting for that big leap from Heyward offensively. But it just hasn’t happened. Going to St. Louis may help him out a good bit, since hitting in Atlanta has become a team-wide issue, maybe signalling toward bad coaching/instruction. I do know that Atlanta coaches have been preaching the whole contact thing, rather than the good contact thing, and I think it would be best to just let Jason Heyward be Jason Heyward. He’s a huge guy, and it’s been frustrating watching him take swings that look like he’s leaving about 60% in the tank, just for the sake of getting the bat on the ball. He seems timid to use all of the physical gifts he has. You know how some basketball players are so massive and athletic that they look like they’re afraid to jump too high? That’s the feeling I get when watching Heyward hit. Something/someone is holding him back. For his sake, I hope St. Louis can set him free.
I was thinking the same thing, though I don’t think Dave is cherry picking because he often uses 3-year averages.
with that said, there is obviously something wrong with this, which is implicit in a 3-year average:
– data from 2012 is of equal importance to data in 2014
– data from 2011 has no importance
3 year average is very simple and that has its benefits, but there are other simple models that aren’t as inherently flawed.
You also state that Justin’s base running ability is diminishing, but is that really the case? He was worth only 0.6 BsR this season, which is his new career low, but he had also just put up a career best 5.6 BsR in 2013. He also had a low 0.8 BsR back in 2010, so a single bad season on the bases after a few good ones might be flukey and not just because a loss of ability. You might turn out to be right, but I don’t see a trend there yet.
It’s also worth noting that Heyward put up -0.5 BsR in 2013, but no one is claiming his base running skill is diminishing just because of that one bad year.
With all due respect, there is a greater need for RH power than a player with Heyward’s skillset. It’s not black and white – Heyward is a superior all around player, so therefore he will cost more. There is enough offensive disparity between the two that a team will value Upton more based on their needs.
“Upton has been marginally better at the plate than Heyward throughout his career.”
This is just not true since Heyward’s swing change. Upton has been considerably better at the plate. Upton will warrant a larger return because there are more teams looking for his skill-set.
Justin Upton shouldn’t cost more than Jason Heyward did, but the Braves are right to ask more for Upton than they got for Heyward. By doing so, they aren’t necessarily saying they value Upton over Heyward – they’re just betting that the market will. Given baseball’s current obsession with RH power, that’s probably a good bet.
If the report was “Braves will not move Upton unless they get more than they did for Heyward”, well, OK, that would be dumb. But they’re perfectly justified in trying to find a sucker. Alternately, if they DO value Upton over Heyward, at least they picked a real lucky player to overvalue.
I know what you’re trying to do here, Dave. As an Ms fan, and with the Ms as the most likely landing spot, youre hoping to create some momentum towards a lower price.
As a Braves fan, I ask you to please direct your rational analysis and opinions elsewhere and let Jack Z do his thing.
Well, except the danger with the Mariners is that they give Taijuan Walker for Upton straight up. Which we’ve already heard they aren’t willing to do. I guess they could put together a foolish package, or ask for too little extra back, but there’s not an enormous concern.
I just called Frank Wren to tell him I no longer offer Walker for Upton. Wait, Frank Wren’s no longer the Atlanta GM? Next you’re gonna tell me what Dave Cameron posts on Fangraphs doesn’t change a damn thing in trade or free agency discussions!
Doesn’t Upton have, at least a limited, no-trade clause? I could have sworn Arizona tried to trade him to Seattle first but he refused the trade. Or is it a situation where the no-trade clause is voided since he waived it to go to Atlanta? Am I just misremembering?
There’s a list of teams that Upton selects, and between the Dbacks’ last tango with the Mariners and the present, he has reportedly taken Seattle off his no-trade list.
He updates the list very year, which I assume is common. From my limited understanding of how these things work, there might be some personal preferences (like if you just HATE Baltimore or something like that), but mostly you just change it to the teams most likely to trade for you in a given year, so that you might get some bargaining power and control over where you go.
Do you actually think GMs are checking fangraphs to see what they should do? I love fangraphs but that is ridiculous
It’s not obvious that he was being facetious?
If it wasn’t clear, the fact that he suggested that Jack Z read Fangraphs should have been a dead giveaway.
There are so many idiot commenters on FG that it’s now impossible to be absolutely certain what’s serious and what’s parody. The sad thing is, the FG comment threads are still a paragon of sane rationality compared to almost every other sports site.
@chuckb
The real giveaway wasn’t insinuating that Jack Z read Fangraphs, but that Jack Z read at all! Zing!
Really?
The asking price for Upton is going to be higher than the return in Jason Heyward? Of course it will. The asking price on Jason Heyward was higher than the return on Jason Heyward. Doesn’t mean they will get what they are asking for. Let’s revisit this when action replaces rumors.
I feel like Dave just copy/pasted the email he sent the Mariners earlier today.
Basically, this article might as well have been titled: our valuations of players are right and the valuations of MLB clubs are wrong. The fact is the market values offense more than defense. They may be right and they may be wrong.
Let’s at least wait to see what Upton actually fetches in a deal. That’ll be the fascinating part.
How about, “If Ruben does it, why can’t I? Idiot’s Guide to Managing in the NL East”
They may be right and they may be wrong.
Yeah that would have made for a fascinating article.
Yup. People can shout “runs are runs” until they’re blue in the face, but the fact remains: Teams simply pay more for offensive runs than defensive runs.
Care to provide some evidence of that over the past few years?
Nick Swisher got more money than Michael Bourn after 2012, despite being two years older and having been worth 5 fewer WAR from 2010-2012.
Thank you. It’s always nice to get questions with astonishingly easy answers!
You’re (condescendingly) saying that one cherry-picked piece of evidence is enough? It’s always nice to get condescending people who use astonishingly spurious logic!
I’ll counter with Mike Napoli getting 2 yr, $32 mil after averaging 3.8 WAR over 3 years entering his age-32 season. Angel Pagan got 4 yr, $40 mil (with significantly less $/WAR in 2012 compared to the inflation in 2014 for Napoli) after averaging 2.1 WAR over 3 years entering his age-31 season.
This is fun! Who needs studies with n>1 when you can just cherry pick examples and call it a day!
Napoli had specific health concerns that kept the years down. And how much better is 4/40 than 2/32?
Napoli already had a healthy year to show his hip issue wasn’t an issue. 4/40 was in a year where each WAR was around $5 mil and Napoli’s was in a year where each WAR was around $6 mil. Pagan’s contract could be seen as a 4/48 mil contract compared to Napoli’s 2/32 mil. When Pagan had only been worth 2.1 WAR per year and Napoli had been worth 3.8 WAR, Napoli’s deal was definitely cheaper for the talent.
…you do understand that a degenerative hip condition doesn’t stop being an issue because you had a single healthy year, right? Because claiming otherwise would fully justify my condescension.
Anyway, I wasn’t cherrypicking. Adam LaRoche and Cody Ross each got more money than Marco Scutaro, despite being LaRoche being worth .5 fewer WAR/650 from 2010-2012 (Scutaro trounces him in total WAR, since he was healthy in 2010 and 2011), and Ross being worth 1 fewer WAR/650 over that span.
It’s also not a good look that you flat out lied about Pagan’s production. Pagan averaged 3.4 fWAR and 3.5 rWAR from 2010-2012. So, Napoli got an extra $6 million a year, despite being worth only .3 or .4 WAR more per season.
Which, again, proves my point. Thanks.
Dave I really think you point about age is irrelevant since both players had 1 year of their prime remaining on their contract
I think the idea is that 24–>25 probably yields a bigger improvement than 27–>28. But yeah, not a huge thing.
Yaz says HI
N of 1 says Hi.
He made the point about age to contextualize Upton and Heyward’s past performance.
If the idea is to discuss a RH power bat then why compare the base running effectiveness? That seems to be more in line with speed and D that Heyward brings.
When comparing two players, why do we give the same value of a 2012 season as 2014. Heyward’s ISO of 113 vs Uptons of 221 is really dramatic in 2014. That’s the power difference that teams would pay for.
If he is moved at all it will for a similar package they got for Heyward. Upton’s contract and slightly older age balances out the fact that he has more power than Heyward.
The anti-SLG bias continues. Uptons a better hitter with more power, he should cost more. Teams don’t value defense and baserunning as much as power. That’s the reality, since players who can SLG are much rarer, especially today
I think what you’re describing is called a pro-SLG bias
It’s not a bias. It’s Dave not recognizing that the market values SLG more than it values defense and baserunning, because of power’s relative scarcity in the current market.
Teams don’t value defense and baserunning as much as power.
The article’s analysis is normative, not descriptive. Not what *will* Justin Upton cost relative to Heyward, but what *should* he cost.
If you disagree, awesome! These are fun things to talk about. Let’s see your work.
Uptons a better hitter with more power, he should cost more.
Compelling stuff.
The thing that immediately came to mind when I saw the headline was how quickly do bat, glove, and baserunning typically age.
The thought process is that while you can hypothetically project a power hitter like Upton to continue a high OPS through age 31-32 without much dropoff, speed and defense may drop off faster.
I have no clue as to the answer, but it made me wonder if a well known study has tracked average OPS, UZR, UBR, defensive WAR, etc. against age.
Egg salad question!
Dave, why are you weighting all three past seasons equally? Don’t most projection systems give more weight to the most recent season?
Dave developed a theory (Upton should not cost more than Heyward) prior to his study. And, in order to conform to his beliefs, he cherry picked “Stats” that favor his theory, such as: Heyward’s base running, as he attempts to convince himself that yes, his theory, is in fact correct.
Reality is these two players create value differently, with one creating it in a way that is more coveted in baseball. Power! That player is Justin Upton and that is what the Braves will sell.
But yes Dave, Heyward’s base running is great!
Justin Upton owns lefties. Jason Heyward most certainly does not. To shrug off right handed power as not that big a deal is worse than cherry picking any stats.
Except most of the pitchers are Right handed.
Is worth an article? We all KNOW Heyward is better. We all KNOW power is overvalued by the market. Value isn’t dictating the market in this case in the same way a Mercedes is worth more than a Honda, but probably shouldn’t be by as much as the price suggests.
“Is worth an article?”
By all means, let us know what topics merit an article and which don’t. Keep it updated at all times and in the hands of all FanGraphs writers so they can meet your approval.
“We all KNOW Heyward is better.”
There are plenty of people who would disagree with this assertion. So…
I know a team that could use a power-hitting righty outfielder…Zimmer and Mondesi are off-limits. Could it be done?
I would expect the Braves to TRY and get more for Upton, I don’t expect it to happen.
This is an interesting scenario for a straight up question, as they are both outfielders with one year left before free agency. If you are a GM that has Justin Upton at $14.5 million, would you trade him for Heyward at $7.8 million? If you had Heyward,would you make the trade in reverse?
I would rather have Heyward, and I would trade Upton for him and be happy about it and it is not particularly close. So I don’t see how why the Braves would get more for Upton.