FG on Fox: Finding a Position for Hanley Ramirez
There aren’t any Mike Trouts on the free-agent market. And actually, at this rate, there might never be any Mike Trouts on the free-agent market.
There are plenty of talented position players available, but they all bring their own individual question marks. People wonder how Pablo Sandoval’s body is going to age. People wonder how Yasmany Tomas is going to translate his skills from Cuba. People wonder if Victor Martinez is going to sustain last year’s power spike, and no one’s really clear on whether Nelson Cruz can repeat his massive 2014.
Perhaps top among all of them, in desirability, is Hanley Ramirez, but he, too, has a question people ask. Actually, there are a few questions, but maybe most pressingly, there are questions about his defense.
He’s never been a great defender at shortstop, and now he’s almost 31 years old, having gotten through a countless number of aches and pains. I’ll quote writer and frequent Dodgers observer Mike Petriello, from the beginning of October:
[…] that defense took a bigger step back, to the point that it’s hard to see him sticking at shortstop rather than moving to third, and the injuries continued to pile up. In 2014 alone, he missed time with minor injuries to his left hand, left calf, right shoulder, right calf, and left oblique, and those are just the ones we know about.
It’s pretty well known that current defensive statistics aren’t as reliable as current offensive statistics, but it’s also pretty well known that current defensive statistics aren’t measuring nothing, and by the numbers, Ramirez looks bad. Over the last few years, he’s been one of the very worst defensive shortstops. When he spent a chunk of time playing third base, he was statistically bad there, too. You have to allow him an adjustment period there, but still, it’s evidence that points to Ramirez being a defensive liability. Not coincidentally, though he just played short for a contender, there’s talk that Ramirez is willing to move just about anywhere.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
All this proves is that fans are bad scouts.
Probably!
I think this is the takeaway: “Ramirez looked particularly bad because he was playing so much short, and the same skills would’ve gotten higher ratings if he were at second or third.”
What if we repeated this exercise with the understanding that the crowd graded Ramirez overly harshly because he was playing a position that’s over his head? So rather than the raw numbers, look at his strengths/weaknesses and grade him on a curve. It seems he’s strong on speed and arm strength, has an average first step, and is below average elsewhere.
If his hands/instincts/release are really so poor, let’s eliminate 3B. But CF or RF seem very possible. Compared to the left side of the infield (where you need to throw the ball accurately to the 1Bman without pulling him off the bag), throws by an outfielder are more rare and the targets are much more flexible (you don’t need to worry about pulling the cutoff man off the bag).
Sample size of me but as a Dodger fan (sadly living in the Bay Area) who watches (and appreciates) Hanley the ranking of his arm accuracy is probably generous. He skips balls and throws wide to first on routine plays more than any SS I see on a regular basis.
Hey Jeff is there a way to see the percentile ranking for specific players on the FSR or is that an in-house function?
I just put everything into an Excel sheet and then calculated myself.
Thanks. One love.
There’s also the issue of positional bias in the ratings. We fans (who are, admittedly NOT professional scouts) see Hanley as a poor SS and all of his component ratings are lousy. But this is most likely in comparison to our Platonic ideal of a shortstop. Move him to another position and I bet our ratings improve in some areas, regardless of how well he actually plays, because we have different expectations of the defense played at other positions. For example, his perceived arm strength or accuracy might go up at 2B just because the throws are easier. Or his instincts at 1B/3B might go up just because he’s got the foul line as an outside bound on where he has to move. Not that his ACTUAL physical abilities would get better, but if he looks less bad we may judge him better.
Agree. They might be most useful in determining a guy’s relative strengths and weaknesses. Otherwise it is definitely tricky to evaluate a player independent of his positional context.
Exactly what I was thinking.
He is basically starting near the top of the spectrum, and is being judge against other shortstops. Move him down 3 slots to 3B and he is probably fine. He is probably fine in corner OF too.
This is the first thing that came to mind for me to0 – I assume that almost everybody ranked each player in relation to otehr players at the same position.
So even a below average SS across the board would very likely have an above average arm at 2B for example, or a a good first step out in left field.
Hanley has been somewhat below average defensively (defense + position) for a while now according to UZR. I haven’t looked at all players but I’m assuming that for most players there is some synergy between UZR and fan scouting. Since the start of 2010 Hanley has been -9.9 over 605 games, or about -2.5 per 150. It seems to me that if you want to bump Hanley up because he’s played shortstop you can’t bump him very much; according to UZR he has to come in below average, which is 52-53 on the fans scouting report. So you could possibly argue that he’s a 43 instead of a 39, or whatever number would be reasonable, but it’s going to be just a small improvement to his scouting profile.
If he’s being looked at as a LF, I’d be very surprised if he signed before March. Won’t the teams knock his salary to the point where he is unhappy with it?
Maybe not. He’s like Alfonso Soriano with plate discipline, which adds up to being one of the top hitters in the game at any position, if healthy.
So unless he’s insisting on a Cano type contract, he should find someone happy to insert his bat at LF/1B/DH/wherever.
I think his future is in the outfield. I wouldn’t bet he’s anything more than an acceptable defensive 3B.
That’s all he needs to be, though.
Why not 2B? Yes, the JABO article talks about having suspect hands and how it fits with 2B. But if his comparisons are Rickie Weeks and Daniel Murphy, then there’re two second basemen right there. Daniel Murphy is a pretty good everyday 2B, and only two years younger than Hanley. And no one’s talking about Rickie Weeks not being ABLE to play 2B – he’s just not considered good, he hasn’t been good when he was an everyday player. Compared to both of them Hanley has the advantage of being a better hitter, as well as having been a major league shortstop.
You only need to look at the other side of the Dodgers infield to see a shortstop move over to second base and make massive improvements across the board, including the areas Hanley struggles with like the Hands department. It’s not a stretch to see Hanley make significant improvements by sliding over. Unlike 3B, the 2B base market doesn’t have two clear everyday players. So why hasn’t this been talked about, whether it’s ESPN or MLBTR or anywhere else – why is it always been 3rd base or outfield?
I think people are always wary of converting a player to 2B at the MLB level. Turning the double-play is very different for a 2B than a SS, and there’s the added risk of collision with the runner. If this putative 2B already has a reputation as fragile….
It’s not like Jed Lowrie has a stellar record of health though, and he’s been mentioned for a potential move to 2B. Better defense of course, but still – I guess Hanley’s a more expensive investment to lose than Lowrie.
There are a few issues with the Murphy comp though.
1 – He injured himself while turning a double play, and was out for the season. That’s acceptable for a young guy making the league minimum who’s not a big part of the team, but it’s a tougher pill to swallow for a highly paid free agent.
2 – Murphy was a dreadful defensive player who only became (at best) acceptable after a few years of hard work. It’s tough for a contender to put in that time, and is Ramirez known as having a Murphy-esque work ethic? Murphy was doing what it takes to grind out a living as a pro. Ramirez is past that point.
So, make him a fulltime DH. Even with the DH penalty, if he performs to about the same plate production as his last 3 seasons he’d be among the best DHs in baseball. The “he can play anywhere, honest” bit means you can put him in an interleague game.