Is Ohtani Really More Valuable in the AL?
Today, I bring you more Shohei Ohtani content to satisfy your cravings.
Assuming the final hurdles are cleared and Ohtani makes his way to a major-league team this winter, he’ll almost certainly become the most fascinating story of the offseason — and then the regular season, too. Because Ohtani’s talent and situation are unique, there are all sorts of ancillary storylines attached to whatever decision he makes.
On Monday, when examining what might be the best landing spot for Ohtani and Major League Baseball, I ruled out the National League because the lack of the DH would limit the total number of plate appearances Ohtani receives. Of course, an NL team could promise Ohtani a corner-outfield or first-base job, but the DH seems like a more natural, less risky, pathway to maximize his dual talents.
But there’s a case to be made that Ohtani’s bat is actually more valuable in the NL even if he’s just limited to the plate appearances he’d earn as a starting pitcher and (between starts) pinch-hitter. It’s possible that his offensive production, relative to the average pitcher, might be more valuable than his production over the average DH performance.
Let’s investigate, shall we?
To begin this exercised, I needed an estimate of Ohtani’s true talent as a hitter. For that, I’m using Ohtani’s 2016 NPB performance — recall he was hurt much of this past season, though he produced a similar slash line — translated to major-league production by way of the Rosetta Stone that is Clay Davenport’s web site.
Per Davenport, Ohtani’s 2016 numbers equate to the following MLB performance: 324 at-bats, 14 home runs, 34 walks, 89 strikeouts. The result? A .306/.367/.512 slash line.
I plugged those translations into Lewie Pollis’s WAR calculator, while assuming that Ohtani is an average baserunner. (Pollis, now an analyst with the Phillies, wrote that the calculator “conforms closest to FanGraphs’ WAR, but it should be a reasonable approximation of the other models of value, too.”)
Over 400 plate appearances as a DH, using his NPB translations, Ohtani’s would project to be worth about 1.8 offensive WAR, or just over 17 runs above average. That includes the rather steep positional adjustment for designated hitters, about -17.5 runs per season. Since Ohtani was a DH in the NPB, I’m not including any kind of DH penalty in this analysis.
As a pitcher, Ohtani would obvious receive many fewer plate appearances. But the bar for his offensive performance would also be considerably lower. And that can’t be discounted: as certain performance in recent years illustrate, a pitcher with some talent for hitting can actually add non-negligible value on the offensive side of things.
As a reference point, consider Madison Bumgarner, who averaged about 85 plate appearances per season from 2014 to -16, when he was logging an average of 33 starts and 220 innings per year. Bumgarner produced oWAR totals of 1.3 (2014), 1.1 (2015), and 0.9 (2016) in those years. Again, non-negligible.
Pitchers, naturally, have a larger positional adjustment. Much larger, in fact. A generic projection of Ohtani might forecast about 180 innings for him in 2018. That’s almost precisely the innings totals compiled by Jhoulys Chacin (180.1 IP), Jon Lester (180.2), and Tanner Roark (181.1) in 2017. Those three recorded offensive positional adjustments of 7.3, 7.7, and 7.5 runs, in 61, 65, and 63 plate appearances, respectively. So let’s say 65 plate appearances and +7.5 runs, on average.
Using those numbers, Ohtani would project to be worth about 1.1 offensive WAR over 65 plate appearances, or about 10 runs above replacement.
That’s still less than 400 plate appearances of Ohtani as a DH; however, playing in the NL also means there could be up to 130 or so games in which Ohtani could appear as a pinch-hitter when he’s not employed as a starting pitcher. Let’s say that, in the NL, he would gain 110 pinch-hitting opportunities. (We’ll give him a few days off.) That’s about another 0.5 offensive WAR, although that doesn’t include the relatively mild effect of the pinch-hitter penalty.
While this methodology might not be perfect and is based upon translations from his 2016 foreign-league performance, Ohtani would perhaps be roughly equal in offensive WAR as an American League DH as he would an NL pitcher when adding in NL pinch-hitting opportunities. Either way, his bat projects to produce a value just shy of two wins (1.6 oWAR in NL compared to 1.8 in AL). Jeff Zimmerman found similar values in his model.
He can really hit. Teams will find a place for the bat to play somewhere.
The 6-foot-4 left-handed hitter won the home-run derby in 2016 in the NPB and once launched a ball that never came down from the Tokyo Dome roof:
Jeff Zimmerman pulled some quick recent comps of MLB hitters for me who were within 10 points of on-base and slugging of Ohtani’s translations:
2016 comps:
Adrian Beltre
Hanley Ramirez
Tyler Naquin
Andrew Toles
Corey Seager
Aledmys Diaz
2017 comps:
Robinson Chirinos
Eric Thames
Lonnie Chisenhall
Adam Lind
Domingo Santana
Jorge Alfaro
George Springer
2018 projected comps via Steamer:
Charlie Blackmon
George Springer
Mookie Betts
Carlos Correa
Yasiel Puig
Aaron Judge
Add in his projected pitching performance over 180 innings — based upon his translated rates of 9.2 strikeouts and 2.9 walks per nine innings — and Zimmerman projects 3.1 WAR
In total, we’re perhaps looking at roughly a five-win, two-way player in his age-23 season. (Twenty-five major leaguers were worth five or more wins last season.) The playing-time estimates employed here might even run a little conservative with health, and those translations are based upon his age-21 NPB performance, meaning Ohtani has probably added skills and physically matured as he nears his expected prime years. So this hardly perfect science, but it at least verifies the idea that this is a special talent who can make an impact as a two-way player.
The focus of this post is the bat. And the big catch is this: Ohtani might just want as many plate appearances as possible and doesn’t so much care about the relative value of his bat. The least risky route to accumulate as many plate appearances as possible is in the American League. This is a player who, in coming over before he could maximize his payday, might be thinking about his long-term counting stats — and a Hall of Fame case.
But if Ohtani is ultimately concerned with winning baseball games, then perhaps he’s equally valuable as an all-around package in the NL. Perhaps NL suitors can and will pitch this idea. In fact, if employed as a super reliever of sorts, there are perhaps even further ways to maximize his value. That’s probably a post for another day, though.
What we’ve learned is perhaps Ohtani should at least consider every major-league team, not just those that can employ the DH. What we do know is that, in whatever league he plays, he’s going to hit. What’s perhaps surprising is that his relative value in comparing the AL to the NL might be close to equal in value. It’s just another subplot to consider, but it gives NL teams something else to ponder and pitch.
A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.
Another factor where he might be the most “valuable” would be in terms of how teams build a roster around him. By having a starter able to fill in as a pinch hitter, the need to keep an Adam Lind goes down. That goes extra if you think he can fill in occasionally in LF or 1B. It won’t show up on his stat line, but being able to carry that 8th reliever or defensive sub in CF might give teams extra value over having the “designated pinch hitter” on the bench.
Excellent point, Matt. And I also think it is a bit presumptive to conclude that an American League Ohtani is necessarily going to be the best DH on whatever team he lands on. He might end up struggling at the plate and maybe only earns 200 or so DH at bat’s splitting the role on a platoon basis. That also narrows the Ohtani value gap between the AL and NL.
YES! Adding Otani is essentially buying an extra roster spot, which ought to be even more valuable in the NL and with the roster-and-bullpen depth revolution.
Me while reading this: “ooo, I have a point about the value of a roster spot. Im going to post something.”
Scrolls down, sees this.
This is why I love fangraphs. Smart people.
Travis, the biggest reason why I want to see Ohtani in the National League is because I can’t wait to see the Pitcher leading off, or hitting 5th, or 2nd, or whatever. If his bat is really good, I would not be surprised at all to see him hitting at the top of the order on the days he pitches, so as to maximize his plate appearances before he tires on the mound.
I think using a typical NL pitcher # of PAs is missing the boat, honestly. I think with 180 innings he’d be closer to 90 plate appearances than 65.
I hope an NL team would think this way, Timmer. I was mainly just being conservative with playing time/PA estimates. There are some really cool things an NL club could do to extract more value
Hey cool, my chat question turned into an article.
One thing worth considering, Travis, is that if Ohtani is this good a hitter, he will get more PAs in the same number of games as a normal starting pitcher because he won’t bat 9th. Most SP get 2 PA per start or so over the course of a season.
If Ohtani hit in the top 5 in the lineup, which you suggest he has the bat to do, he would probably get a 3rd PA in all the games he pitched, and that would increase his batting value as a pitcher by 50%, since it would increase his PA total as a pitcher by that much as well.
Even if he didn’t always get the 3rd PA (due to having some ineffective outings, etc), he would almost certainly average more than the 2 per start that is typical for a pitcher like Bumgarner or Adam Wainwright (who lead MLB in 2017 in Pitcher Batting WAR with 0.7 in 50 PA over 25 starts).
On top of that, he won’t get pinch-hit for in the same situations where the likes of Lester, Chacin & Roark would be (e.g. in the 6th with men on). So he gets an extra PA in such games and likely an extra IP too.
Ohtani could also DH for an NL team in a handful of interleague games, adding another 20-30 PAs to his total.
It also seems like a lot of AL teams are not going to be able to simply push aside their primary DH to give Ohtani PAs. I’ve seen comments like, “just get Ohtani then worry about what to do with Pujols”. Problem is Ohtani is not a moron, he knows the Angels have Pujols on the roster to soak up the bulk of the DH PAs.
Additionally, would AL teams give up the DH for games Ohtani is pitching so he can bat? Assuming they PH for him with the primary DH, the consequences for forgoing the DH that day will be limited, but still a concern.
At the end of the day some team is going to offer Ohtani the chance to truly be a 2 way player because it’s the only chance they have at signing him. That team may well end up being the winner despite market size, place on the win curve, or any other consideration.
Realistically? Most DHs last year were not that good. Cruz, Dickerson, and Encarnacion were the only really excellent ones. Maybe we think Trumbo or Morales bounces back. Hanley is moving back to first. There are still a lot of teams that are getting lousy DH production. But even if we assume JD Martinez gets moved back there, that’s only 4-6 teams where Ohtani should be blocked.
Of course, “should” is the operative word here. The Angels could, and should, DFA Pujols. That would be a great outcome for the Angels. But I doubt they would do such a thing.
I’d think that the four AL teams (like the Mariners) who have a good DH would be in a similar boat as the NL teams. It’s why I’d want to pitch Ohtani as a part time 1B if I were them.
Its true that DHs in the AL were at their all-time worst last year (99 wRC+), but I’m not sure we should project that to continue, especially with some folks likely moving into DH roles (like JD Martinez moving back to the AL and into a DH role, he was a RF for Detroit because Miguel Cabrera).
An AL team could pinch hit for Otani with the regular DH, but that DH would have to substitute for some position player in order to stay in the game. And regardless, the pitcher who replaced Otani would either have to bat when his turn came up, or also be pinch hit. So I’m guessing Otani would not bat as an AL pitcher.
I don’t disagree with you for the most part. But for the Angels, I think you are overstating the position crunch at 1B/DH.
Last year, Cron had 374 PA and Pujols had 636. Between his bad offense and his advancing age, there is no way Pujols should get that many again (unless he really bounces back, in which case you figure it out).
Last year, Cron was much better against lefties than he’d ever been before, with a 109 wRC+. The two years prior were sub-85.
He was also worse against righties than he had been previously. Let’s assume he’s a real talent 105 wRC+ vs. righties and 95 vs. lefties. It could easily be the other way around or 105 against both. Either way, he’s not amazing against either side.
Pujols was terrible against lefties last year after being above average for 3 years in a row and almost every year of his career. He probably should be expected to be at least an 85 or 90 wRC+ against them next year. (If he can’t do at least that, he probably shouldn’t and won’t start really at all and this isn’t a problem)
Against righties, on the other hand, Pujols has been trending steadily downward and his 86 wRC+ against them could easily be his ceiling against them going forward.
It’d be pretty easy to let Pujols play 1B against most lefties, with Otani DHing and Cron sitting, or Cron and Otani sharing time (with Pujols shifting back to DH when Cron plays). Then Cron plays 1B against all righties, with Pujols and Otani splitting duties there at DH. That gets Cron about 500 or so PA, Pujols about 400-500, and Otani getting 300-400.
If Pujols absolutely can’t play 1B ever, maybe Otani can at least play 1B against lefties when Cron sits.
I don’t think that’s unmanageable at all, and it presumes that a) none of the three ever get injured, b) Pujols still hits enough to justify playing 4-5 days per week, and c) Otani can’t really play 1B. If any of those are not true, it’s even easier to get PA for Otani.
Even if Ohtani is the most talented hitter in the world, he’s not going to reach his slash-line hitting projections without regular exposure to ML pitching. He needs consistent PA’s.
There’s an odd pretext for this article, which is that it assumes that NL teams are somehow less likely to pursue or land Ohtani because the value of his bat might be lower. This is questionable, no matter whether you tackle the “pursue” or “land” angle.
For pursuit: As a pitcher only, he’s more valuable than, say, Luis Robert was when he was signed. Luis Robert got a $26 million dollar signing bonus. Why the value of his secondary talent would discourage NL teams from pursuing Ohtani for much less than Luis Robert got is beyond me.
Given that Ohtani would be a screaming bargain for every team, the best fit for Ohtani is not in how much value he produces, but how much the team can offer to him. The cost-benefit calculus for the team is so out of whack that analyzing it from that framework doesn’t work well.
For landing: Travis has a pretty big disclaimer on this, but since it’s probably true it’s weird to write a whole article on it…Ohtani probably doesn’t care about how much value he creates via replacing other players. All evidence suggests he wants to be a two-way player because he wants to hit, not because he thinks he’d be better replacing Brandon McCarthy than Hanley Ramirez (I don’t know where the Hall of Fame stuff comes in, either). So total hitting opportunities are probably what matter. This is where being in the NL is a double-edged sword; he has to hit at least a little bit, but you can’t stash him at DH. The problem NL teams have is that they can’t offer him the DH, although they might be able to stick him at first.
Keep in mind, this also assumes that Ohtani can hit like a star in MLB (hitting the approximately 125 wRC+ Travis’s calculations have him pegged for, or doing better). That’s a big “if”, and we can debate that.
Nowhere did I assume NL teams are less likely to pursue Ohtani … Land Ohtani? Yes. I think he ends up in AL
So you think Ohtani cares whether he is replacing Brandon McCarthy or Shin-Soo Choo? I would be interested to see if there are any reports to back this up.
I don’t think Ohtani really cares who he replaces … he just wants the most PAs possible
I completely agree, but then why does it matter whether he’s more valuable to an NL team or AL team? Or is it important in some sense other than determining where he signs? (which is all I care about)
I think there was this general sense that the AL was a no-brainer for him because there is a clearer path to regular PAs without adding risk of injury in field. But I wanted to show that’s not true from a relative standpoint … in fact, a creative NL team could make the pitch that his bat has more value in DH-less league. While I have my doubts Ohtani would be influenced by that, an NL team could make plea he is more valuable to them.
If Otani were more valuable to the NL team, they would presumably be willing to pay him more money when it comes time to extend his contract.
But he seems to care more about finding the right playing situation than the money, so I am with you in thinking that this doesn’t really matter.
That pretext only exists because Travis wrote an article yesterday arguing that Ohtani definitely should go to the AL, and then was exposed to an argument that he might actually be more valuable in the NL due to the gigantic difference between Major League Hitter and Average ML Pitcher, vs the difference between Shohei Ohtani and Average Designated Hitter.
Travis is responding to his own arguments with an alternative.
I see. Alright, I’ll buy that.
Curious about the positional DH WAR adjustment– should this be revisited? The average positional DH WAR last year for AL teams was 0.7, and here we are using that to say 400 PA as a DH is only a tiny bit better than 180 PA as a pitcher. Using WAR assumes Ohtani would be supplanting a quality DH, though only 3 DHs reached 1.0 WAR in 2017, only 10 DHs had positive OFF scores! and only a handful of teams are rostering a dedicated, bat-first, DH-first guy.
No, that doesn’t mean that they were only a bit better than being a pitcher. It means the average DH was only a bit better than Fungible AAAA Slugger like Ike Davis, which is almost certainly true when you consider the awful options some teams trotted out at DH (literally guys like Ike Davis).
Replacement level for a DH is higher; its basically anyone who can hit a baseball and isn’t signed. Those guys exist.
Replacement-level pitcher hitting is atrocious; MLB pitchers collectively put up a -20 wRC+ last year. They were literally negative, so the differential is gigantic.
The average DH MLB wide had a wRC+ of 99, which is still just below MLB average as a hitter.
The difference, though of 120 points of wRC+, is the same as the difference between Alcides (70 wRC+) Escobar and Mike Trout (190 wRC+).
That sounds right. Players like Adam Lind, Chris Carter, and Pedro Alvarez were floating around last offseason and signed for very little money.
Only thing I’m not sure of is if positional versatility should somehow factor into this, because short benches can make it difficult to carry a DH who can barely even fake it at 1B or corner OF.
This was my thought as well.
The DH positional adjustment is based on the idea that a DH – by definition – only hits. That clearly doesn’t apply to Ohtani. I realize that, if he’s a DH, he’d be taking ABs from someone who is a DH, and so that comparison is somewhat valid. But he gives the team an extra roster spot, which in today’s game is a significant advantage. But beyond that, Ohtani has experience playing OF, and from what I’ve read was more than just servicable as a defensive player. And I’m intrigued by the possibility of him at 1B.
I’m a Mariner’s fan, so Nelson Cruz would seem to be a problem for my favorite team adding Ohtani. But if I was a different Jerry, I’d try to pitch the opportunity to fulfill an historically unique role: SP, 1B, OF, and DH. He’d be an entirely new type of utility player.
To bring this back to the subject of this piece, I think that Ohtani is absolutely unique, and perhaps we need to rethink how that impacts things like WAR positional adjustments. The WAR system was designed in a world where someone like Ohtani doesn’t exist. I think he breaks the system.
Can you imagine it’s the 7th inning of a close game and Ohtani is left in the game to pitch out of a jam because he’s due up 2nd in the next inning?
I think I want Ohtani in the NL just for this reason!
Make up your mind, Travis!
LOL. We’re going to need another post.
Or the weird case where he’s due up 2nd, so you double switch him into LF and bring on a stopper to get out of the inning. You could even bring him back on the mound the next inning if you wanted to…
That is the type of imaginative use of Otani I hope for.
I admit I’m biased (I’m a Dodgers fan), but I do think the Dodgers would be the most creative front office when it comes to utilizing Ohtani. It helps that the depth of the team allows the Dodgers to play musical chairs with the SPs as well as consider platooning every which way in the OF to get players ABs. If Ohtani’s bat lived up to the hype I could imagine the Dodgers finding ways to boost Ohtani’s ABs over a season to 200+.
I’ve been thinking that the positional versatility of many of their fielders (Barnes, Bellinger, Taylor) and the presence of seemingly far too many starters makes them a particularly good fit.
After what we just saw from Houston, everyone is probably thinking tandem starts are a great strategy. Maeda has shown that he tires later in the season starting every fifth day; maybe Otani would as well. What if they were used in tandem though and Otani’s ability to play first or left allowed the team to avoid consuming a roster spot for an extra starting pitcher?
Or what if LA went with a six-man rotation to give both Otani and Maeda more rest? Again, having Otani allows the team to roster six starters and a (four day a week) first baseman or six starters and a left-handed bench bat from six roster spots. I’d think LA could use their pitching depth to manage tandem starts or a six-man rotation (or a modified rotation where Maeda and Otani each alternated every other fifth start – Maeda game 5, Otani game 10, Maeda game 15, etc. – while pitching out of the pen between starts) in a way that few teams could – Astros being another that could.
The versatility of the position players comes in when you have to worry about who plays left or first on days Otani pitches without having to carry too many additional position players who are one-dimensional defensively. Maybe Bellinger starts at first when Otani pitches and moves to LF when Otani plays first. In addition to their pitchers, LA has a wealth of outfielders, most of whom benefit from being platooned, and at least three guys they’ve trusted at multiple infield positions and left field. I think they could make some interesting things work with Otani.
Ohtani will be giving up a lot of money to sign this offseason. To me, that implies that he will want as many at bats and innings as he can get. The AL will likely provide more of both.
I’m intrigued about all these possibilities. You mentioned the words “super reliever” as well and I hope you guys look into the numbers on that a little more. I’m picturing Ohtani in the NL playing LF/RF/1B until the SP gets into a jam. He comes over to pitch while the SP is taken out for another fielder. Ohtani pitches for an inning or two (a la Miller, etc.), then either he or the replacement fielder is yanked for another bullpen arm. Ohtani could get ~100+ innings of high leverage work while still having his bat in the lineup most of the time, assuming he’d need a day off after an appearance of more than 3 outs.
Eh, the unrealistic part of that idea is that Ohtani couldn’t come in mid-inning because he’d need to warm up in the bullpen before pitching.
I’m pretty skeptical that any team would have Ohtani play in the OF with any regularity because of the potential for max effort throws. Maybe in the NL there’d be something like Matt’s idea above, where he double-switches to the corner OF from pitcher for an out or two if he’s due up next inning but is in a jam. Even there, though, he needs to clear an awfully high bar as a hitter because a team is double-switching out of the game a corner OF who will often be a good hitter himself.
I wonder if this will inspire MLB to change rule 5.11. In high school the rule was different – you could DH for anyone which means if your best pitcher was also your best hitter you could DH for the shortstop or catcher.
I’ve wondered about this too. It could certainly increase his value in the AL. Although I’m guessing the other 29 teams would probably be opposed to this. And Alcides Escobar or Matt Wieters or whoever the SS or C getting DHed for was, probably wouldn’t be too happy either.
That’s awful, the fact that in HS you can DH for the worst kid on the team is just terrible.
To some, the fact that you can DH at all is terrible enough.
The problem with doing that, as is also the case with letting him DH (bat for himself) when he pitches, is that when Otani is removed from the game, the pitcher who replaces him will have to bat, or be taken out for a PH every time that spot comes up. This restricts the manager’s choices to an extent that probably keeping the regular DH when Otani pitches is the better alternative.
It annoys me how many professionals write articles like this without bothering to actually look up what Otani did in Japan. I’ve posted this in the comments to at least 2 fangraphs articles, but let me shout it this time:
OTANI DID NOT PLAY DH IN EVERY NON-PITCHING GAME. HE HAS NEVER DONE THIS.
In Japan, pitchers start once a week, and teams get an off-day every week. In every season where Otani pitched full-time (i.e., not 2017), his weekly schedule included AT LEAST three days of rest before and/or after pitching. It was the NPB schedule and the six-man rotation allowed him to get that amount rest and still DH up to three times a week (sometimes less). Even when his team was in the Japan Series in 2016, he still needed rest before and after his starts.
If that is indeed the amount of rest he needs to be effective as a pitcher (which seems likely), switching to a five-man rotation & MLB schedule means Otani will be available for DH duties more like 1 or 2 games out of five, or maybe 150-200 AB on the season.
THAT is why it might make sense for Otani to sign with a NL team: because he’s not getting 400 ABs in either league unless he stops pitching full-time. Unless someone agrees to let him skip starts, or he plays with less rest than he’s always needed before (both unlikely) it’s 150-200 AB a year in the AL vs. 100-150 in the NL.
I was just about to post, “how is Otani deployed in Japan and why wouldn’t the team that signs him just deploy him the same?” Then I read your post.
This is a great point! And it makes it a more even competition between AL and NL clubs.
Especially given the issue that AL teams will have to deal with on the day he pitches, for if he DH’s that day, when he gets replaced, especially if they bat him high in the lineup, it would burn the DH, then the AL team would need to either bat their relief pitcher or burn another precious bench bat. So some AL teams might not want bat him DH on the days he pitches (how did his Japanese team deal with this issue? Or is there a loophole in AL if he moves to LF, for example?).
I was going to mention the DH (NL teams get 10 games in the AL each season), but it has already been mentioned above, and that adds up to four series (assuming he can DH in at most one game per series, based on the resting protocol above it would mean that he can really only DH/LF once between each start), which if he’s batting 3/4, means another 13 PA (assuming he can DH in 3 of the 4) on top of the PA he would get as a starting pitcher (Bumgarner before 2017 averaged 85 PA in the three years as full-time starter; Cueto, not a good hitter, had 84 PA in 2016), plus the 110 PH opportunities that was estimated in the article, means 208 PA.
In the five seasons of regular play, Ohtani averaged 234 PA per season, which is not that far away from what he would do on NL team. However, last season, being unable to pitch, he did get 231 PA still, and in 2016, got into 382 PA. Have to think that he views more as better, and it appears that his team started to use him with less rest in 2016, in order to boost his PA to almost double what he averaged in his first three seasons. An NL team will probably have to be more creative with him, in order to get him more AB’s, occasional starts on the field.
The trend in MLB is to have starters pitch less and less innings, on a per start basis and a per year basis. This would be another reason why if he wanted a significant # of plate appearances then he might want to choose the AL/DH option.
You bring up a very good point, which is related to how some teams are sabermetrically run: some teams limit pitchers on the number of times they face the other lineup. For example, LAD pulled Hill out of every playoff start at 18-19 batters into the game. Of course, they didn’t do that to Kershaw (Ohtani is good, but not that good yet, though), and given the worry over pitcher abuse, particularly when they are under 25 YO, saber teams would be more likely to limit IP for him.
As a result, saber teams might not appeal as much to Ohtani, first because they will probably limit his IP in his first few seasons, as they ratchet up his usage from NPB to MLB, from 22 starts to 33 starts, roughly, but also because they likely won’t be as aggressive in raising his limits due to his youth.
Which is probably part of the reason why his list of seven questions included how he would be used, to see how the team would use him, and allow him to question whether the answer of the team aligns with how they acted before in handling players.
This article ignores that Ohtani can still hit for himself in the American League. That would add about another 0.3 WAR to the AL side of the ledger.
The problem is when he’s replaced, the pitcher who replaces him has to hit, or be removed for a PH. Unless he’s a much better hitter than the team’s other options, they would be better off keeping their regular DH when pitches.
This is true, but I think it’s also pretty clear that he doesn’t want to sign with a team that isn’t going to let him hit in the first place.
I really fail to see how landing in the NL limits Ohtani’s plate appearances at all. I just don’t see how a creative manager and front office couldn’t make it worse.
My idea for him, for as long as I have been aware of him has been simple. He is not “part” of the rotation. You still have your 5 man rotation. Instead he is the Sunday (or Wednesday) starter. Why Sunday (or Wednesday) because off days are often scheduled on Mondays (or Thursdays) with the whole Fri-Sun there are always games, as well as Tuesday and Wednesday. So Ohtani starts on Sunday. No matter where he signs NL or AL, I would assume he would get the day before his starts off, as well as the day after. With This schedule, Ohtani plays 5 of the average 6 games of the week. On the weeks where there are no off days he plays in 5 of 7 games. In addition to this it gives most of your rotation an additional day of rest almost every weeks.
An example weekly schedule for Ohtani on let’s say the Cubs. Sunday pitch. Monday off. Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday plays LF against lefties, 2B against righties, and maybe some RF/3B depending on giving other players days off. Saturday off.
The baseball season is ~27 weeks long. This will give him about 40-45 games off a year, all focused around the days he is pitching. Playing 120 games he would get about 600 plate appearances, minus the 1-3 plate appearances he would lose after he is pulled from the game as the pitcher.
This seems like the best way to utilize him regardless of if he is playing the field or DH.
Edit, sorry my math is bad. instead of 600 PA, he would get 500 minus the PA from when he is pulled early.
My favorite thing about all of this speculation is that I venture it might literally come down to what he wants. If he were to say I want 500 at bats per year, and start at least 50 games in the field, at least one team would say yes.
It’s a totally different type of bidding than with any other player I’m aware of. Very unique
It is such a unique situation in which we have a player who can basically just say to his agent ‘I want to play for x team’ and that is that. Every team can afford him and can make space for him if he’s willing to come. I’m sure he already has the team he wants to play for picked out, he just needs to make a bit of the diligence that they will let him bat and pitch.
He has got to be thinking that his development as a young hitter is going on a different arc at 160 at bats versus 500. Ruth had 142 AB in his age 22 season, 380 at 23, 542 at 24, and 615 his first year with the Yankees. Ohtani is not cutting in line here to pinch hit. Ask any pitcher, given a choice, if he would prefer pitching at a high level or hitting at a high level. If Ohtani becomes a great hitter in time the question is will he give up pitching.
Most of what I’ve heard from him is that people value his pitching more than his hitting. So I think the consensus is that if the hitting doesn’t live up to expectations, that he ends up as more like Bumgarner with a better bat.
Of course, the equivalencies rank his hitting very highly, and I don’t know what actual MLB teams think about his potentials. If his MLB numbers actually are an .850 OPS, then it becomes an interesting problem in what his best usage is. You’re not getting him to throw 200 innings and get 600 ABs, so do you try to get him closer to the 200 innings but know his ABs won’t be more than about 250, or keep him down at the 150 inning mark but push the ABs closer to 400 or more?
My point is not where and how he will be most valuable, but only what it is he intends to find out about himself. He will go with the Boston Ruth model until performance dictates otherwise.
some speculations shown in the JP media:
1. he needs opportunity to both hit and pitch. some media says ohtani might forgo DHing(position player is out of question). In that scenario, NL might be a better fit.
2. he does not want to go to a team who has a Japanese pitching star. (source is Nippon Ham Fighters organization insider)
3. he does not want to go to a team who has a Japanese player, period.
4. he may be best suited for the Diamondbacks. major factor being family ties.
5.he may be best suited for the padres. major factor being Nomo and Saito.
I dont know the truthfulness of all these specualtions and news, some are guesses. But if 2. is true, he is not going to the Dodgers or Yankees, Cubs. It seems NL west and AL west teams are the frontrunners in any case.
He is better suited to the AL. He should not hit on the days he pitches. It is too taxing.
How many times does an NL pitcher hit, get on base, and then looks fatigued the next inning?
Does anybody know? We need a new comprehensive stat on how tiring hitting is for a pitcher.
The NL should just adopt the DH.
*ducks*
I didn’t see the article mention that the ~100 ABs he might see as a pinch hitter will often be in high-leverage situations, so his bat would theoretically be more valuable that way than in a lot of run-of-the-mill ABs in an everyday lineup. So that might make him even MORE valuable in the NL if you throw that in.
He would be more valuable to the game in the AL.
If he goes to the NL he is a pitcher that can hit and pinch hit.
In the AL he is a pitcher thats also taking 4 AB when he doesnt pitch.
DeanAnna: It seems you didn’t read the article at all. The article shows why your reasoning may not be correct. If you have a quibble with what the article states, you should attack his specific points, rather than just restate the argument that he was rebutting in the first place.
Maybe I misunderstood. A positional adjustment penalty as DH in AL and nonpenalty for his PH appearances in NL? That would be comparing apples and oranges so clearly I misunderstood
Besides, Ohtani knows more PA makes him more valuable overall, and that’s the key for him. Much easier to stay sharp with 400 PA and a bad stretch is unlikely to kill your overall numbers with a larger SSS
The point of the article was to compare how much WAR Ohtani could produce as a NL vs. AL.
So there is a positional adjustment penalty to WAR if he’s used as a DH in the AL. And on his usage as PH in the NL, there is normally a hitting penalty when a regular player pinch-hits, as he’s not used to doing that and his batting line suffers as a result (hence the penalty). All in all, it is comparing how much WAR Ohtani might produce in the AL vs. NL, and these are relevant as they are adjustments made to WAR, even if one is an apple and the other orange. Consider it an apple-to-orange translator. :^)
FYI, he’s never accumulated more than 382 PA in any season, and excluding that peak, has ranged from 119 to 234 PA, so he has had to deal with the effects of lesser amounts of PA for all of his career.
If a national league team signs him wouldn’t that preclude the need for a left handed pinch hitter , allowing a team to carry an extra pitche?. Increasing his value further.
Seems to me that we need to look at his possible value as an OF in the NL as well. What is the positional offset for RF? If he plays 3 days in OF out of 5, and pitches, what would be his offensive WAR over 450 PA? Add that to his value as a pitcher and you get a new total. (Also, add the value of having another bench player).
Then you have to look at typical performance loss and playing time loss due to injury for pitchers and outfielders, and combine them and compare the extra risk to the extra value. It might turn out it’s worth it.
Say hypothetically he’s an 8 WAR player as a P/OF. Now say you have another 8 WAR player who is OF only. Would you reduce that players PT by 38% (to reach 5 WAR) if you knew you could cut the injury risk by 50%? Maybe, or maybe you’d play that player normally.
That’s the comparison that teams need to make, instead of assuming that more risk is bad. If that were true they should never play their best players because they might get hurt.
Maybe not more valuable to a team, but the DH would allow Ohtani to get more playing time, so probably more attractive to him.
I might be showing my naivety here, but if Otani is playing two roles as one player (DH and pitcher), he gives his team another roster space to do with as they please (which w/o Otani they would use for either the DH or pitcher). I am of the mind that the opportunity gain of that second player free to do as the team wishes should probably play into Otani’s literal “Wins Above a Replacement Player” … but there is probably no current methodology to build that into the WAR formula (or maybe there is … I do not know)
Please tell me he just kept running around the bases after hitting that ball that got stuck. I’m personally in favor of drawing a line 450 feet from home plate around the outfield bleachers and if a hitter hits one past that line, they get to go to first after rounding the bases.