Is Trading Giancarlo Stanton Even Possible?
There’s a fair amount of belief out there that the Marlins should finish the job they started with the Blue Jays and trade their biggest chip for a huge package now. And the 23-year-old masher now named Giancarlo Stanton is quite the chip. He enters his final seasons at the league minimum just seven home runs short of triple digits, and still has three years of team control remaining after the upcoming one. It’s those years of control that provide room for the most debate about his value.
You can try to do a straight calculation to reduce this to an equation. Stanton’s defense in the corner outfield has been steady, as has his patience, and only an injury kept him from producing six wins last season. He’s pre-peak by any measure, so penciling him in for another 20-25 wins over the next four years is reasonable. You’ll get one or two superstar seasons and one or two more five-to-six-win type seasons for your money. We’re painting with a broad brush here, but the best is yet to come, if most aging curves are to be believed.
How much he’ll be paid over those four years is the tougher question to answer. The methodology in arbitration tends to depend on the traditional stats, though, and Stanton offers the traditionalist’s favorite — home runs — in bunches. Albert Pujols hit 114 homers through his first three years, and then he signed away his arbitration years for $7M in 2004, $11M in 2005, and $14M in 2006. Ryan Braun hit 103 home runs in his first three seasons. He was paid $1M in 2010 (final non-arb year), $4M in 2011, $6M in 2012, and will receive $8.5M in 2013. In the last ten-to-fifteen years, no other player has gotten particularly close to matching Stanton’s power surge to begin his career, so these numbers have to provide us a short sample guide post. Oh if only the Marlins worked like the Rays so we could add cost certainty to his tremendous list of assets.
Let’s split the difference and say he gets paid about $25 million dollars over his final four years. Both Pujols and Braun were/are better players — not a slight, given the crowd Stanton is running with — and you can see that even by looking at traditional stats like batting average and RBI. So, $25 million dollars for 25 wins. Has a nice symmetry to it, even if we guesstimated our way here. Even if you are more conservative and have Stanton at 20 wins over the next four years, or you think he’ll bring in closer to $40 million in arbitration, he’s a great bargain.
Either way, Stanton could easily provide $100 million in surplus value.
It could be even more. Current salaries in baseball add up to $2.9 billion dollars. Teams are about to get $52 million dollars each in 2014 from new national television deals. Even if they only spend half of that money on player salaries, the collective money spent on salary could lurch forward by as much as 25% sometime between now and Stanton’s final year of arbitration in 2016.
But let’s leave that for later, since it’s hard to know exactly how the new money will affect the marketplace. And, since our numbers for the value of prospects are old — Victor Wang’s oft-cited research came in 2008 — it makes sense to use ‘now’ numbers in this case.
$100+ million of surplus value would buy you quite a load in returning prospects.
If you focused on prospects, you could demand as much as two top-ten prospects — a hitter and pitcher in the top ten were worth $36.5M and $15.2M respectively in Wang’s research — and still get more. In fact, without adding major leaguers with surplus value of your own, it’d be hard to get up past eight figures of surplus value with prospects alone. Does any farm system have a top-ten pitcher AND hitter to spare, and then the willingness to add a top-50 hitter and pitcher? They’d still be a ‘live arm’ short of Stanton’s surplus value. For example, none of these possible deals offers $100M in surplus value back to the Marlins:
The Royals are supposedly shopping stud outfield power prospect Wil Myers. They don’t have a top ten pitching prospect, but they could add #28 on Marc Hulet’s mid-season top 100 (Jake Odorizzi) and throw in #33 (Bubba Starling), and they might approach the $80M mark. The Marlins would listen, but why would the Royals — in desperate need of pitching, and owning a power outfield prospect of their own — love this trade? Are they a power hitter short of competing?
The Rangers could need an outfielder once Josh Hamilton is gone. Stanton could hit eleventy-billion home runs in Texas. The Rangers even have Jurickson Profar to offer. Add in Mike Olt (#31) and a nice collection of their down-ranking pitchers, and they could get close. They also scored the most runs in baseball last year.
The Orioles! They fit the top-end requirements to a tee, with Manny Machado and Dylan Bundy in the top ten, but then the rest of their farm isn’t as exciting… and it doesn’t really seem like the trade would fit their needs. They scored the ninth-most runs but allowed the sixth-most runs in the American League, and pitching seems like it might help the team more than an outfield slugger.
Very few teams have the ability to put together a package worthy of Giancarlo Stanton. Even fewer of these trades would qualify as enticing to the Marlins. And it looks like there might not even be one situation where both the Marlins and the other team’s needs lined up to make it happen. Maybe that’s why the newest, from Jon Heyman at CBS, has the Marlins keeping Stanton. It’s practically impossible to trade him.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
With the Eagles going into full rebuilding mode (putting it nicely!), Philadelphia pools its assets and offers the city of Miami the first multi-sport trade…LeSean McCoy for Giancarlo Stanton
Can we send Andrew Bynum to the Heat too? We swear his knees are fine.
But what about the hair???
They play two different sports
please joking?
Why compare Stanton’s potential earning to guys who signed away their arbitration years for long-term security (Pujols and Braun) instead of someone who actually went through the arbitration process, Like Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera received $7.4MM in his first arbitration year (before then signing an extension when traded to the Tigers). Given the general upward trend in MLB contracts, shouldn’t we expect Stanton to receive something in the $8-10MM range his first time through?
If that is his starting point, he will definitely exceed $25MM in his 3 arbitration years. He would likely receive something more in the $35-45MM range.
I had a hard time with Miggie, totally looked at him for a while. My problem with him was that he was still a third baseman! That puts him in a different bin, I’d guess. Even if you go down to 20 WAR for $30M, there’s just so much surplus value there that it’s going to be near impossible for another team to match.
Good point about the positional difference. I had not considered that. I still expect Stanton to set some arbitration records.
But, as you said, he will still be supplying a ridiculous amount of surplus value.
What about Ryan Howard? His profile is more similar to Stanton and he got paid quite a bit through his arbitration years.
yeah, Michael Jong used Howard and Fielder to get to $38 million in arb, which sounds reasonable to me. Still $80m of surplus at 20 WAR and $38M in salary, probably.
Cabrera is a better comp by age. I believe Howard and Braun were still in the minors at Stanton’s current age. I would think a younger age is something that could be leveraged in arbitration for more value.
Stanton’s 2013 ZIPS projection:
42R, 42HR & 42RBI.
Where are you finding 2013 ZIPs projections?
Woosh.
153 BB, 150 IBB.
Could be the first player in history with a 30% K rate and a 30% BB rate in the same season!
Anything is possible with that scumbag Loria.
What Stanton brings to the table so beautifully lines up with one of the most glaring Ranger needs right now it’s almost too much to behold. For Profar, Olt, and say 1 top ten pitcher in the minor league system, 1 from 11-20, and 1 from 21-30, good lord that’s a hell of a knot to untie. I, like most Rangers prospect followers, absolutely love Profar and Olt. The thought of parting with both of them, especially to condemn them to Jeff Loria’s Baseball Hell, makes me borderline nauseous. At the same time, both are blocked right now at their natural positions by Elvis and Adrian. I feel it comes down to how you feel about the competitive window: Does it close with Hamilton’s departure? If so, you hug your trash can, pull the trigger, and puke. If you think the window stays open, primarily because you have Profar and Olt ready to step in, then you dream of how Stanton could mash moonshots into the landing pattern at D/FW International and wait for the other shoe to fall.
The Rangers are the best match, I agree with you. Should they do it? Does it fit with their past dealings? I don’t think so.
No mention of the Mariners as trade partners? Montero, Smoak, Paxton, Franklin, Walker? Seems like the Ms have got a farm system that could appeal to the Marlins.
No top-ten hitter, which would provide the bulk of the prospect surplus value going back.
Did you really mention Smoak? Even as a throw in his value is so insignificant, he has no place in this conversation. Montero would have to be the 3rd or 4th most valuable piece in any deal for Stanton.
The M’s would probably have to part with Zunino plus two heads of Cerebus to bring the Marlins to the table. And even then they would probably have to throw in one of their bat first second base prospects.
What would an NL team do with Montero?
Either play him at catcher or first base. NL teams have found a way to play Lucas Duda or Adam Dunn, so I’m sure trotting out Montero at catcher won’t be the most egregious thing ever.
Tell me how crazy I am: Justin Upton and Trevor Bauer to the Marlins for Giancarlo Stanton and Yunel Escobar. The Marlins then flip Upton for the best package available, say, Olt and Profar from Texas. The Rangers get their man, the Diamondbacks get both their coveted shortstop and a massive power threat, and the Marlins get rid of a head-case SS while stocking up with three of the best prospects in the game.
On paper, there’s some chance for this. Three-team trade could help this happen. Marlins could put Olt, Profar and Bauer right into their lineup at positions of need. DBacks get what they want. Rangers? Upton for Olt and Profar? That’s the part that’s not quite there.
But the principle still applies. Marlins could get more for their buck if they get Bauer plus whatever package Upton can bring them. Maybe Oscar Taveras/Shelby Miller from St. Louis? Just spitballing, I feel as if the Marlins’ asking price for Upton would be somewhat less specific than the D-Backs’ need for an SS
@Glomp
Oscar Taveras and Shelby Miller for Upton? You’re joking, right? Why would a team that already has three outfielders under contract, 2 of whom are arguably better than Upton, give up two top 20 prospects to do that?
Glomp, maybe I’m just a Springfield cards fan. But I’ll take taveras over Upton right now. Next 5 years Upton will get worse, taveras will get better for much less. Add in miller? You nuts? Maybe miller and taveras for trout, Stanton, or maybe Heyward.
Next 5 years upton will get worse? How old do you think he is?
LOLOL Taveras over Upton? No, you’re not just a Springfield cards fan. You’re an incredibly stupid Springfield cards fan. Oscar was in AA last year as a 20 year old. Justin spent his 20th year on Earth in the major leagues putting up an all-time top ten season for 20 year olds. Oscar won’t even be a major league regular for at least 2 more seasons.
Upton walks more, has more power and steals more bases than Taveras. Oh yeah, he also had a higher OPS than OT at AA too.
As for the other Cards’ idiot. Good luck relying on a couple of aging corner outfielders. Who do you think will decline more in the next 3 years? A 35 year old Beltran, a 32 year old Holiday or a 24 year old Upton? I already know your answer though …
@glomp
It might happen if Taveras wasn’t a good pure hitter who was never projected to make it to the majors. Upton is good, but he isn’t the type of player who would command multiple top prospects, right now anyway. Theres still time for him to improve. And as far as the fellow who talked about Beltran declining for the next three years. He’s only under contract for one more, and I find it extremely unlikely that the Cardinals will resign him for 13 million per year again.
Sign Mike Stanton out of retirement and trade him for Giancarlo Stanton.
Fair deal.
Atlanta? They have the high-end arms plus lower ranking SS/C, would be set at the outfield corners for years, and Lauria seems to not care – I can’t imagine him worrying about Stanton ending up within the division. Advantage of being a pariah is that people’s opinion of you only goes so low.
The Braves don’t have a single top 10 prospect. Simmons is probably their best prospect, and he’s more like top 25. So it’d have to be Simmons and then like 5 or 6 of their best minor league arms (Teheran, Delgado, Sims, Wood, Graham, and Gilmartin) to even get to the neighborhood of what Sarris is talking about here.
Laying bare the cupboard for one player like that really doesn’t seem like Wren-era Braves style.
It’s not, but with three 23 year olds in the everyday linep, adding a 23 year old Stanton and you’re looking at some ridiculousness. Teheran is just a year removed from back to back top 5 prospect rankings and apparently was working on stuff this year. Trade Teheran, gilmartin, Delgado, salcedo, betancourt, and graham for Stanton. That’s 6 decent-high ceiling guys. Maybe get a third team in somehow.
Really don’t see why the rangers don’t get him. Hamilton shouldn’t be offered anything, Stanton will likely be better. Olt and Profar are blocked. No reason not to.
Don’t think Miami takes that. Salcedo and Bethancourt really haven’t established themselves as good prospects in the grand scheme of things. All the arms have promise, but I continue to believe any package they’d put together would have to involve Simmons (thereby creating a hole at SS, which is another thing Wren wouldn’t want to do).
I wouldn’t mind the Braves trading the farm for Stanton.
lol
“penciling him in for another 25 wins over the next four years is reasonable.”
No it isn’t. There are very few players in the recent history of baseball that you can reliably predict to be a consistent 6+ WAR player four years into the future. And I’d say that, Trout aside, there are none in baseball at present.
If there was one, he’d probably be a pre-peak slugger with consistent walk rates and decent defense, though, no?
I think to project someone to be worth 6.25 wins per year for the next four years they’d have to be a 7-8 WAR player in their peak years, to account for the risks endemic to baseball (injury, form falling away for various reasons, etc) which are comparatively greater over longer periods of projection.
I’m not sure you’d project peak-Pujols for 25 WAR for the next 4 years at any point in his career. Perhaps Pujols, but that’s the sort of player you’re talking about. I’m not convinced Stanton, who hasn’t hit 6 WAR in his career yet ONCE, and who possesses an arguably rather high BABIP for a flyball hitter thus far in his career, is that sort of player, just yet. To be honest, if you gave me 20 WAR for his next 4 seasons, I’d take the under.
Braun and Pujols both topped 25 WAR in their peak four years, but the point is taken. Perhaps I should have put 20, but I’ll take the over on 20. And even at 20 WAR at $30M, he offers more than $80M in surplus value, and these trades were the only ones that got to $80M.
It would be someone with a spotless injury history whose value is largely tied to his positional and defensive value that is not as likely to be affected by random luck like BABIP imo.
I’m not saying he wont be that valuable. But to trade for him as if he will be is risking the most possible. I mean, the odds are almost zero that he OUTPERFORMS 25 WAR/4-years.
None of these trades assumes he will hit the 25 WAR bar. All of them only get to $80M surplus.
edited the piece to reflect the truth that more than 20 WAR is more reasonable than 25.
stanton is 23 and has the highest HR/FB in baseball, by nearly 3%, since he entered the league. he’s 8th in SLG over that same time, 13th in wRC+, and in a park which suppresses RHB power by a fair margin. he shows no signs of a persistent or lingering injury.
stanton is exactly the kind of player you would predict to do that.
Might have to agree to disagree on this. The “type” of player you project to put up 6+ WAR/yr for four years into the future is generally pretty much the best player in baseball, in their peak years. Pujols hasn’t done it in the last four years. Braun hasn’t, and he’s been remarkably healthy.
I might’ve projected the 27-year-old Pujols to do it, Barry Bonds at his peak, and A-Rod a few years ago, but other than that (and maybe Trout now), hard to see too many players at any point in the last decade or so that you’d project more than 6 WAR/yr for the next four years of their career. It’s just a huge level, in terms of production and health.
Ryan Braun’s put up 24.7 WAR the last four years and was almost superhumanly healthy during that time (averaging about 670 PA/yr).
Also, the only real difference between Stanton’s pro-rata numbers last year and his 4.5 WAR full-season 2011 were a higher BABIP and better (some might say unlikely sustainable) UZR. He basically needs to maintain the BABIP (or improve his BB/K figure), keep being statistically one of the best right-fielders in baseball defensively, AND be pretty much healthy for the next four full seasons to put up 25 WAR.
I’m not making the point that Stanton isn’t one of the best and most valuable players in baseball. Just that a projection of 25 WAR over the next four years of a career should be reserved for peak-level, hall-of-fame, generational-type talents.
It’s incredibly misleading to say Braun hasn’t “put up 6+ WAR/yr for four years” because he did in fact average 6.2 WAR over that span. So all you really mean is he didn’t literally put up 6+ WAR each season.
And just a few comments ago you were saying “I think to project someone to be worth 6.25 wins per year for the next four years they’d have to be a 7-8 WAR player in their peak years.”
So apparently it was OK to speak in terms of average WAR but it’s not anymore.
Braun hasn’t put up 25 WAR over the last 4 years, is what I meant, apologies if this was unclear.
As to the rest of your post, not really sure what you mean.
My basic point is that it is incredibly hard to put up 25 WAR in 4 years, and you should only project absolutely elite, generational talents at their peak to do so. Projecting this for Stanton is simply wrong, as the OP has since corrected.
Paging Alex A:
Finish the trade with Toronto, send the Fish some combination (or all of) of TDA, Sanchez, Osuna, Noah S, and remove Rajai Davis and Lind from the team. Put Melky in RF, Bautista as 1B/DH sharing duties with EE and then proceed to drool over the lineup. Contingent on Stanton signing a 10yr 225mil deal!
Cmon AA, gut the farm system completely, trade all the 2017 Jays for the 2013 Marlins!
I was just thinking my beloved Jays have the stuff to get it done, if they want. d’Arnaud as the big young bat, Sanchez as the arm, and then go from there (some combo of Gose, Osuna, Syndergaard et. al.).
I agree though – I’d want to sign him long term before I’d bet the farm on him. Exciting to think about!
“penciling him in for another 25 wins over the next four years is reasonable.”
No it isn’t. There are very few players in the recent history of baseball, at any one point in time, that you can reliably predict to be a consistent >6 WAR player four years into the future. And I’d say that, Trout aside, there are none in baseball at present.
I have a tough time seeing Profar as being the apple of the Marlins eye in any of these deals given they already traded for 2 shortstops.
this has been my same thought about how the Rangers are the ideal trade candidate.. it just doesn’t make sense unless there is a third team involved
Yeah you’re right Yunel Escobar and Adeiny frekaing Hechevarria are really going to stand in Jurickson Profar’s way
It’s easy to be snarky – but even given the hypothetical of the Marlins dealing Stanton, all of these deals aren’t done in a vacuum. The Marlins just traded for two shortstops – why would they trade for more?
The question was begged: Is it impossible for the Marlins to trade Stanton? It just might be, and their recent trade to acquire multiple shortstops hinders their need/want to trade for more.
Maybe they have an evil plan to acquire all shortstops of value and use them to form an artificial scarcity, driving up the prices when they trade them!
Though I prefer the Goldfinger plan, which is to acquire only a small number of shortstops and then irradiate the rest to increase the value of the ones currently in your farm system. *Loria-finger… he’s the man, the man with the miser’s touch! A spider’s touch!”
Two things: positional need is pretty far down the list of concerns when you’re as far from contention as the Marlins are. They should be thinking in terms of adding future franchise cornerstones, not filling out the lineup in 2012. They could even play them all simultaneously, for what that’s worth–Profar and Hechevarria covering the MI positions, and Escobar at 3B. Also, the gap between Profar and Escobar/Hechevarria is quite large. Escobar is 30 and was middling at best last year in a nice hitting environment, while Hechevarria is totally unproven, not nearly as highly regarded by talent evaluators as Profar, and could very well profile as a utility guy.
I’ll throw my hat in:
Some combination of Gyorko and Erlin (essentially MLB ready) and Liriano and Hedges (both possibly ready 2014-2015) get it done?
Doesn’t seem especially close. None of them top ten, or twenty five for that matter.
Thought the positional adjustment might account for some of that, but oh well, worth a shot.
haha
$Texas for Stanton. Give Loria what he really wants.
And you wagered Texas…with a dollar sign in front of it. I’m speechless.
He’s 24? Is he no longer 23 because he’s not mike Stanton anymore and being Latin makes you age faster?
Dude’s American. Born in the US. Don’t be an asshole.
eh I had it a 24 years for some reason. My bad.
Settle down Francis.
I wasn’t being an asshole. If anything, I was making fun of the rednecks that always make that assumption. Don’t be a sissy.
Also, he is latin. That’s his heritage. I have blonde hair and blue eyes, born in the US, german heritage, get Nazi jokes. It’s fun. Shouldn’t take yourself too serious.
Ok Hitler
The Cardinals could put together a pretty nice package, and their whole “You know what, screw defense!” thing of the past two years keeps me from completely ruling out Stanton in CF.
OMG, that sounds so good right now…Jay can go back to a 4th OF until Beltran gets hurt again. Then, next year Taveras can join them – except we’d have to trade him to get Stanton. 🙁
2 of wacha, miller, and Wong plus 2 of Jenkins, Martinez, rosenthal, and Adams plus an org filler could do it.
LOL You are pure comedy gold Hitler
Considering their home parks, the current run environment, and the difference in defensive value, I can’t see how Ryan Braun was a better player at this point in his career than Giancarlo.
But that is beside the point – the real point is that $25 million is absurdly low for what Stanton will get over the next 4 years. My guess is it is closer to $40 million. In addition, 25 WAR is absurdly high, and 20 WAR is more like the fair guess while 16 would be the conservative guess, especially given his durability concerns.
All that said, just like any other top-10 trade commodity, a deal would be too ridiculous to ever happen. Can you even think of one player in the last 20 years who was traded while being a top-10 trade commodity? This applies to Stanton, but it also applies to McCutchen, Kemp, and other young superstars.
I should have been more clear that the money and WAR stuff was a guesstimation, and I get the criticism that 25 WAR is too high. I’ll take the over on 20 WAR though, and I’d guess I’d take the under on the arb offers, since I don’t think he’ll have great batting averages and they won’t care about his OBP. The point remains, as you finish in your comment, that even with 20 WAR/ $40M, he’s likely to have too much surplus value (over $80M) to make these deals work. These were the only deals I saw that even crossed the $80M threshold.
“Can you even think of one player in the last 20 years who was traded while being a top-10 trade commodity?”
I doubt it would be top 10, but ARod from Texas to the Yankees? By my calculations, after Texas chipped in money to help cover his salary, the Yankees owed him about $110 million for 7 years. That was still a lot back then.
But he had just won the MVP, had average 9 WAR per year in Texas over 3 years, played SS (soon to be 3B). It’s the biggest trade I can think of, though it doesn’t match the overall value that Stanton would.
I thought about A-Rod, but he was not a top-10 trade commodity as you can’t count the cash (or else it really just ruins the point). You might call the A-Rod the Yankees had (the 7/110 million guy) a top-10 trade commodity, but then the Yankees did not trade him.
Miguel Cabrera
25 WAR over 4 years is an incredibly high and unrealistic bar. For example, nobody in baseball has managed 26 WAR over the last 4 years, and only three – Cabrera, Pujols and Zobrist – managed 25. Nobody in baseball should be pencilled in for both that level of skill and health.
“Even if you are more conservative and have Stanton at 20 wins over the next four years, he’s a great bargain.”
I’ll also offer up that he’s an elite talent himself.
who would have guessed Zorilla would be on that select list?
Most fangraphs readers?
Does any farm system have a top-ten pitcher AND hitter to spare, and then the willingness to add a top-50 hitter and pitcher? They’d still be a ‘live arm’ short of Stanton’s surplus value.
The Cardinals have all this (very close to it if you don’t agree), but the willingness to part with that much talent dooms this trade.
And Jon Jay could be included in the trade to make room for Stanton in the St. Louis OF (put Beltran in CF for the last year of his contract).
The cards could get there but it’s not with Jon Jay. Taveras and Shelby Miller + another piece is something the Marlin’s would have to consider. I don’t think the cards should attempt to meet that price simply because Stanton’s not a CF. Though the cards could meet the price, they’re not a very good fit.
Though the cards could meet the price, they’re not a very good fit.
I agree, which is why I mentioned moving Jay to make room in the OF. Marlins don’t want salary, so Beltran and Holliday wouldn’t work unless it is a three team deal.
You forgot the Jays who have the assets to do it – TDA and Lawrie plus Syndergaard, Sanchez and Osuna. Yes there isn’t a top 10 pitcher, but close. I would balk if I was AA though – iits too much risk to gut the system and give up Lawrie who is still 22
No I saw Travis D’Arnaud there… I just figured if they were going to do it, they woulda done it.
I wouldn’t throw Lawrie into the deal, but I’d consider an all-prospect deal.
Lawrie/TDA/Sanchez might do it/be too much to give up, I dunno. Also “If they were going to do it, they woulda done it” is a total cop-out–can’t you say that about every single potential trade?
I don’t think it is in this case, considering the two teams just locked up in a mega trade and I’m sure they talked about Stanton.
I love all the fans here trying to make up trades where their team could get Stanton.
I’m a Giants fan. Its more of being an anti-Lauria fan at this point, thinking of ways to move Stanton to another team.
As a Mets fan, I’m glad we got Wheeler and left Brown to graze your outfields. Brandon Belt and Wheeler could have made that trade happen, and it would have been annoying as hell.
I can’t come up with a single scenario where my team (the Indians) gets Stanton. So I’ll just follow along…
Isn’t that the point of this post??
Of course it is, but but you didn’t expect snarkyinternetguy to not chime did you? I sure did.
“Manny Machado and Dylan Bundy” for Stanton?
I think I’d rather have the two Orioles kids.
Eh, bundy is a pitcher, so that makes him more of a risk. Machado has had small sample success in his limited time in AA and the Majors, but Stanton is a proven 23 year old 35-45 home run threat. I’d take Stanton.
I think I’d rather have five years of Machado and Bundy than three years of Stanton.
This guys says the exact same thing in almost the exact same words: http://www.fishstripes.com/2012/11/26/3690822/miami-marlins-giancarlo-stanton-trade-rumors-2012?ref=fangraphs
Shoot I’ll have to get Michael on chat. I didn’t see that as I was working it up. I’d say that it’s not too hard for two people to use these same sources and work through this the same way.
Newton and Leibniz both invented calculus and did so simultaneously, without being aware of the other’s work. When it’s time for a great idea, two or more geniuses may find it without copying the other. I maintain that’s what happened with Eno and the Fish guy.
No, Newton’s work came first. Whether or not Leibniz was aware is debatable, but they definitely weren’t simueltaneous.
/missing the point
I spoke with Eno, it’s totally cool. Great minds think alike and such.
I love that this inquiry, investigation, and settlement took about three hours on a Tuesday evening. It seems like the sort of thing that, back in the day, might have taken several decades and a good historian to reconcile.
I think we are forgetting an important point here. Given the scumbag that Loria is, would we really be shocked if he didn’t accept 100mil surplus in a trade? What about 80mil? 60mil? Given his incompetence it wouldn’t surprise me if he accepted a deal for Stanton that most of us thought was a fleece.
When has he ever been fleeced before the fact? Trading Beckett for Hanley and Anibal? No. Trading Cabrera for Miller and Maybin? Yes after the fact but not before the fact — they were both BA Top 10 prospects. I’m not seeing where Loria has sacrificed value in a salary dump. For that matter Beinfest seems pretty sharp. Mike Hill is probably good too but I’ve no idea what he does.
Heck, he probably got the better end of the Jays deal despite the media coverage of it.
He traded very little surplus value for a pretty good return of surplus value – noone wants to do this analysis because it might make it look like a decent move from a talent perspective and it might not look like such a great trade for AA.
Miami is likely to get more surplus value from this trade, but I also think Toronto is likely to get more absolute value.
Would Jarrod Parker and Josh Reddick get it done?
Not even close.
It might. When were they hired as GM and who were they thinking of offering in trade to the Marlins?
the marlins will keep him until arbitration Nuff said
Hypothetically, what if Stanton went to Loria or whoever, and said, “I’m not playing another game for Miami. Trade me.”
Does Stanton get suspended or otherwise punished? That has to lower the price for him. If the best Loria can get back is a stolen Rembrandt and two bags of weed, he has to take it at that point, right?
Bad precedent for the player to do that. Remember the flack that Manny got when he (was accused of) tanked on his team(s) ? That action will haunt Stanton (or any other player) for years, always showing up at contract time in the form of incentives or clauses, but lower base pay.
He’s not obligated to play major league baseball. If he doesn’t play all they can do is not pay him. Plus he could probably go play in a Latin American league to keep sharp and put on a show for other teams. Heck, espn would probably show more highights of Giancarlo games in Latin America than Marlins games. It would be a bold move.
Or Stanton can compile MLB money and MLB numbers playing for the Marlins. He could easily hit 50 home runs if the Marlins are bad enough that pitchers often have no strategic need not to challenge him. At this point in his career, he has a shot at historic home run totals and a Hall of Fame career. There’s no need to self-handicap himself by being too much of a child to tolerate playing baseball in a beautiful stadium in his own country for incredible riches for a bad team.
The logic is that Loria should accept less than Stanton’s isolated surplus value (say $90m) for the sake of argument, because that value is a team-neutral assessment.
Stanton helping the Marlins keep the losses in double digits isn’t as useful as getting some other team over the hump into the playoffs; it might make sense for Loria to take 80c on the dollar [other arguments about the Marlins fan base notwithstanding].
What I don’t get is the idea that he’s too valuable now but that they may resign themselves to trading him in one or two years time – that seems crazy.
Anyway, the Nats could be a reasonable trade partner – their one obvious need is in the OF (though signing Stanton would mean committing to Harper in CF for a while) and elsewhere their prospects may be blocked since most of the rest of the team is controlled through at least 3 years.
A package based on the below could be interesting (obviously it might need one or two more):
Anthony Rendon
Alex Meyer
Brian Goodwin
Robbie Ray
Steve Lombardozzi
Michael Morse (only signed through next year)
I saw this and thought you were crazy, but I guess from the Marlins’ end they are about cost cutting, not winning, and the only way they do the latter is to catch lightning in a bottle… such as hitting on the majority of a large package of prospects. Of course, only Rendon is considered a top one, though Goodwin has been making waves. But all four could, I suppose, have a chance. I think Lombo is a future super utility and that’s his ceiling, and like you say, Morse could bounce back from his injury but it’s one year (and more expensive than Stanton in 2013). But it’s a thought of how it could go down, instead of a formula of one top-ten pitcher and hitter. However, I don’t see Rizzo literally giving up the farm, even if Stanton’s four remaining controlled years fit in with their window because of just that… he doesn’t want it to be 2013-2015 and then have nothing. It wasn’t very fun having nothing for the first five years building up a razed farm system once D.C. got the team, and I think they want to have an eye both to now and after-now. Oh, and they’d need to then give LaRoche the inflated contract he wants, because Morse couldn’t move over and take his spot if he is traded… and the OF FA market is waaay better this year than 1B.
Interesting, though…
This was assuming the Nats re-sign LaRoche – if they don’t then obviously keeping Morse for 2013 makes more sense – though they do have prospects at 1B too (Tyler Moore, Chris Marrero). They have internal candidates for 1B too: Werth (declining range) and Zimmerman (declining ability to throw).
The Nats would still have some reasonable farm prospects further down the line even if they gave up a lot: to be honest a bigger reason for the Nats not doing it might be that they don’t feel they need the extra wins in this current window.
PS another reason for the Marlins to trade Stanton is to lock down that #1 draft pick for the next couple of years 😉
I honestly don’t think it would be enough. You do have 3 top 100 guys, but Robbie Ray was awful this year. Lombo makes some sense. I imagine you would have to throw a few more arms in, Karns isn’t on lists but his stuff and performance would be interesting. Maybe a tools guy or two like michael taylor or destin hood. A catcher that could actually play at the MLB level (maybe Ramos, even though injured last year, would need to be included I honestly have no idea what florida likes in players from a tools standpoint though) Miggy had a terrible reputation when he was traded and still brought 2 top 10 propsects in baseball, a high velocity lefty and CF specifically, and a number of other arms, plus the marlins got to dump salary with dontrelle willis. I just don’t see 3 top 100 guys getting it done, Im not even sure the Nats have enough availible unless solis or giolito bounce back very strong next year.
Didn’t Stanton himself already say it wouldn’t work since his last name backwards is NotNats? I guess there is a chance he changes his name to make it happen.
I’m thinking:
J.P. Arenciia
Colby Rasmus
Noah Syndergaard
D.J. Davis
For:
Giancarlo Stanton
Are you a Blue Jays fan?
Yes. Think they’d bite? Would they need another prospect, or a major leaguer, or someone in-between like Sierra?
D’arnaud would be a good starting point if you’re adding to that package, but not sure if that gets it done. J.P. hits HR, and does nothing else (I think he’s accumulated about 2 WAR in his career). Rasmus has minimal trade value as it’s looking less and less likely that he’ll be the player people thought he’d be. The rest aren’t bad 3rd/4th pieces if you have some top-notch talent ahead of them – but that offer doesn’t have anything close to top-notch talent between J.P. and Rasmus.
No chance.
hahahaha
who is d.j. davis
the pirates have major league ready talent i think to cover a trade. cole or taillion (both rated between 8-15) Marte just promoted last yr and or josh bell is a top 50 prospect. the pirates also have alot of back end or reliever prospects at triple a.
not the pirates style. though, I like the thinking.. if they can acquire Stanton, they may be more able to attract free agents as well. (well, better ones)
MIke Illitch wants a freakin championship….
Castellanos, Avi Garcia, Smyly, Casey Crosby and Dixon Machado.
I think if you threw Porcello in there, they would have to consider that…
I am still waiting to find out that the Tigers are a mystery team for Hamilton but that Hunter signing put a damper on that thought
sign ALL the players!
Not in a million years would the Marlins consider this.
Surprised no one has mentioned the Red Sox yet but I’d be thinking that Bogaerts, Bradley Jr., and Barnes would be a pretty reasonable package. You’d probably have to add someone like Swihart or Cecchini but the basic outline is there.
I want Tigers to trade for stanton, extend him, and then sign Hamilton. Have VMart catch, Stanton DH, hamilton in LF, Hunter in RF, jackson CF, leave peralta at SS and get someone to stand at 2B. Hey, it is not my money.
Vmart catch AND Miggie at 3b? Your pitchers will not like you one bit, given the defense they have to perform with.
It would be awfully fun to watch them kick the ball around in 10-8 wins though.
*not a Tigers Fan
With Cabrera/Stanton/Fielder/Hamilton/VMart as the heart of the order, would they really need defense? Just let the pitchers throw until they record three strikeouts every inning.
this is the most ridiculous thing i’ve read all week
That was the point.
I Feel like that overrates his vaule, If the Marlin’s offered Stanton for Bundy/Machdo, there is no way the O’s do that, and really, Im not sure many teams would take Stanton over those two.
If I were the O’s owner and I found out my GM didn’t take that, I’d fire him.
What about Miller + Taveras for Stanton? Top 5 prospect in OT and ~Top 15-20 in Miller.
The Cards could then try to flip Beltran to a contender. As a Cards fan I don’t think I’d do this (and they never would), but it doesn’t sound awful.
No, and if you toss in maybe Jenkins, I think the Marlins would have to think about it, right?
Miller + Taveras is probably fair I think. If we assume 20 WAR for Stanton over the next four years, and 30-40m salary paid during arby, he’s got something like 60-70m in surplus value.
Using Wang’s prospect values, Taveras + Miller is worth about $50m. It’s pretty close, especially if Loria is keen to sell Stanton and there are no other takers.
Do the Marlins even want players back? I’m pretty sure the Marlins would take the money and run if someone offered them something like $50-60 million for the rest of Stanton’s contract. Players are too much of a hassle…
The papers here in Chicago had some kind of Starlin Castro/pitching offer for Stanton. I know Theo would set the Cubs in the right direction with Stanton and Rizzo. Maybe it’s our journalists wishful thinking, but Castro (last name notwithstanding) would go over well with the Miami crowd as a latin player.
why yes, it would go over well.. just like the last “Castro” out of Chicago. okay okay, but, given the SS in Miami (Escobar for current, Hechavarria for future) I am not sure that Castro is really worth Miami’s time. That is, unless they flip him to a SS starved team for even more prospects.
From a pure value standpoint, not considering team needs, a young MLB star like Castro is probably the easiest way to cover a big portion of Stanton’s surplus value in a trade without completely gutting a farm system.
And the Cubs in particular, with deep pockets and relatively little (for that market) in the way of payroll obligations, are in a position to create or negate surplus value by eating whatever money is necessary. Someone above joked that the Marlins don’t want players and would rather take cash, but it’s not an entirely invalid point to consider. This is purely academic as I can’t imagine why the Marlins would consider it, but say the Cubs were to include Soriano and cash to cover virtually all of his contract. That’s a lot of pure cash value added to whatever Castro-headlined package they could put together.
Matching Stanton’s entire surplus value isn’t the only way to close the value gap. A team could take on another player and the contract to reduce the surplus value Miami is giving up. But do the Marlins even have any bad contracts remaining that that’d like to get out from under, or have they been completely bailed out by now?
Nolasco is about the only remaining name.. LoMo is also still on the roster, though neither is a “bad contract”..
Hey, if the Marlins wanted to move Nolasco and Stanton to the Cubbies for Castro, Soriano (Cubs pay the contract) and a pitching prospect or two, I am pretty sure Theo would jump all over that deal. Rizzo and Stanton would form a pretty solid core as 3-4 hitters….maybe the Marlins would also take Carlos Marmol if the Cubs pay his salary too?
The Marlins would probably trade him for a bag of marbles.
I have been saying that as a Marlins fan, its really hard to even fathom what we can ask for Stanton. I have come to the conclusion that right now, the best move might be to trade him and look towards 2014 or 2015 to begin competing. The only thing I can even consider though is if the Cardinals called and offered Taveras, Rosenthal, Carlos Martinez, Mat Adams, and 1-2 slightly lower prospects, Maybe its 1 more power arm and an infielder, maybe Mat Carpenter, or even another power arm. The Cardinals system is deep enough to take the hit right now, though I dont know if they would be willing to do something like this. For the Marlins, they get a potential superstar in Taveras, a power hitting 1b in Adams, 2 young SP who throw 100 and at the very least can dominate the backend of the bullpen if they dont pan out as starters, etc. I know it sounds greedy, but I honestly think that being greedy is something that should be understood in this situation, especially since Stanton is just 23 with 4 more years of control.
Just some fruit for thought. V-Mart will never catch again, even if signing Hamilton were possible, you really want an injury riddled (not to mention the off field problems) on our Tigers? Miggy has fought his demons and you wanna pair the two? On paper, great, but he seems to end up on the relapse side more than not. Not the best idea. As for Stanton, he may seem impossible to abtain, but in baseball, and thing is possible. The only way the Tigs could get him is by signing Drew, flipping Jhonny (who I like) for a good prospect. Use that prospect and deal him, Smily, Crosby and Avasail Garcia, kick in some cash and try and get Stanton. Maybe even Buck as a back-up catcher. That’s the only way its going down. I like all the players I have mentioned and it would saddened a lot of hometown Detroit fans, but Stanton would be worth it. It won’t happen, Stanton will end up wearing that fancy M for years to come. Stupid, yes. But we are talking about the Marlins. Than again, thanks for Cabby, how are Maybin, Miller and those “other” guys working out for ya?
Buck went to Toronto in the deal. Also, Castellanos has to be in there with Garcia and the rest.
aroldis chapman,billy hamilton,devin mesoraco,corcino.put stanton in between votto an bruce
Okay Eno,
What do you think of a trade with the Angels?
Mark Trumbo, Peter Bourjos, Randall Grichuk, A.J. Alvarez, and Travis Witherspoon for Giancarlo Stanton?
Trumbo and Bourjos have a lot of value and are both controllable for the next 4 seasons and would fill up the hole created by Stanton leaving plus the CF issue.
Just a wild thought from an Angels fan. Trumbo has about $30 million in surplus value. Bourjos could easily have $50 million+ in surplus value due to his elite defense and average MLB bat (he never had a regular amount of consistent plate appearances in 2012).
Trumbo for Stanton.. basically, with some throw-ins.. I dont see the upgrade being enough to warrant such a trade. Who knows what Trumbo will become as he gets more playtime under his belt.
Hi Cidron,
The problem is do you believe in the early 2012 Trumbo or the 2nd half 2012 Trumbo? Or something in between?
Trumbo has about the same raw power that Stanton has but Giancarlo appears to get on-base a lot better than Trumbo has or possibly ever will.
I love Trumbo but to be honest I’m not sure he is ever going to be as consistently good as Stanton is. Trumbo’s on-base skills leave something to be desired. That being said Trumbo appears to be a hard worker and could possibly improve.
Mike Stanton is a step above and is much younger than Trumbo. How far above is debatable but Stanton just slugs a little better and gets on-base a lot better. If the Angels, by some miracle, could trade for him and sign him long-term, along with Trout, it would be a coup of epic proportions for the Halos.
Stanton to the Cubs for Castro/Vitters/Lake/Soriano/$forSoriano? Cubs could bring up Baez to take over in Castro’s absence and might get a SS who can remember how many outs there are.