JABO: Aroldis Chapman Changeup Watch
Imagine, if you can, the least-fair thing in baseball. Do you have it? Maybe you’re picturing having to face Giancarlo Stanton with the bases loaded. Maybe you’re picturing one of those Clayton Kershaw curveballs, or Juan Lagares running down a would-be winning double in the gap. Maybe you’re just thinking about Billy Hamilton on the bases. OK! You’re wrong.
The least-fair thing in baseball is Aroldis Chapman throwing a changeup. It’s the least-fair thing for exactly the reasons you’d expect. His fastball is unfair enough on its own; add a changeup and you’ll have helpless hitters twisting their spines. The good news was this: for years, Chapman’s changeup was only theoretical. It was something he’d throw a few times in spring training before realizing he didn’t need to mess around. Chapman was never quite lacking for weapons.
Then in 2014, Chapman got experimental. For the first time, he carried that changeup into the season. And the results? You could probably guess the results, even without me telling you, but just for the sake of being complete: Chapman threw 63 changeups, according to Brooks Baseball. Opposing hitters made contact exactly once (it was an out). Allow me to repeat that, for effect: batters made contact with one Aroldis Chapman changeup in 2014, out of 63 opportunities. They didn’t always swing, but you get the point.
It was beautiful. It was perfect, from an objective-observer viewpoint. It was decidedly not perfect from an unobjective-opposing-hitter viewpoint. Through the first half of the season, Chapman threw 11% changeups. In a June series against the Pirates, Chapman threw six changeups in consecutive games. All of a sudden, it looked like the change was going to be a regular part of the repertoire, and Chapman was soaring to new levels. Chapman, at that point, was playing with his food.
Read the rest at Just A Bit Outside.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Doesn’t seem like the pitch has much arm-side fade, like really good changeups do. Imagine him with, say, Hamels’ changeup.
Imagine Aroldis Chapman with Cole Hamels’ changeup, Kenley Jansen’s cutter, Clayton Kershaw’s curveball, Greg Holland’s slider, Koji Uehara’s splitter, RA Dickey’s knuckleball, and Cliff Lee’s command…
What would his projected ERA/FIP be? The lowest projected ERA for ZiPS is Kimbrel’s 1.56 and for Steamer is Chapman’s 1.63. Would it be fair to expect an ERA around .5?