While Kris Bryant Gets Promoted, Carlos Rodon Waits

As Kris Bryant heads to North Side of Chicago to make his debut, the lack of movement on the South Side has merited much less attention. Carlos Rodon remains a starting pitcher in Charlotte as the White Sox use two currently inferior pitchers in the rotation. Much of the same arguments for keeping Kris Bryant down apply to Rodon. By keeping him in the minor leagues, the team can gain an extra year of service time. A couple starts during the course of the season is not likely to make a huge difference for the White Sox’s season.

Whether those arguments are valid as they apply to Rodon are moot now. The time needed to keep Rodon down is over, and the White Sox still haven’t named a starter for Sunday afternoon, but they have eliminated one name:

White Sox manager Robin Ventura said after Wednesday’s 4-2 loss to the Cleveland Indians that his starter would come from the team’s active roster, which means either Jose Quintana or Hector Noesi would get the start.

With all of the off days to start the season, even with Chris Sale’s injury delaying his first start, the White Sox have been able to skip and stagger starts well enough to get their top three starters most of the starts. Chris Sale, Jeff Samardzija, and Jose Quintana have made five of the eight starts for Chicago so far and they are expected to make all three this weekend. If the team could continue to have their top trio make more than 70 percent of their starts, they would be in pretty good shape. Unfortunately for them, the many off days of early April are at an end. Chicago will have 39 games in the next 41 days, necessitating fourth and fifth starters on a regular basis.

Narratives at the beginning of a season can quickly unravel once the actual games begin, but for the White Sox rotation, the narrative of strength at the top of the rotation and weakness at the bottom has held true thus far. In the five starts made by Sale, Samardzija and Quintana, the White Sox are 3-2, winning Sale’s lone start and splitting the other two. In those five starts, the White Sox top trio has pitched 30 innings, struck out 25 and walked seven. In the three starts made by John Danks and Hector Noesi, the White Sox are 0-3, and they didn’t make it through five innings in two of the three starts. All told, in their 15 innings, they struck out 10 and walked nine. So, there isn’t much room for argument that the Sox need Rodon.

That leaves the question of whether Rodon is ready for the rotation. Before the season started, Kiley McDaniel ranked Rodon the eighth-best prospect in baseball, and discussed his college career and potential:

He hit some bumps along the way and only showed flashes of his ultra premium stuff in his draft year, but it all came back after signing, due in part to his overuse in college and his reliance on his knockout slider. He’ll likely start in Triple-A, and should be up at some point this year. He has frontline starter potential, but he’s also shown flashes of a more ordinary pitcher in recent years.

While that profile isn’t going to blow anyone over, the ranking is indicative of the 22-year-old Rodon’s promise. After being drafted last year, he pitched just over 21 innings professionally after being worked hard during the college season. While the competition level can be questionable and spring training statistics are not necessarily predictive of success, Rodon did come to spring training ready to pitch. In 17.2 innings, he struck out 21 against just five walks and one home run allowed. He continued that success in his first start in Triple-A, striking out nine hitters against two walks, giving up one run. His second start last night did not go as smoothly — he struck out four in five innings, and allowed two walks and three runs, giving him a total of 13 strikeouts and four walks in 10 innings. Pretty good, but not pristine.

Rodon might not be ready to make the immediate impact that Kris Bryant could make for the Cubs, yet he would still be an upgrade over either Danks or Noesi. Danks has been replacement level for three straight years. His 4.74 ERA and 4.76 FIP in 2014 were his best marks in those statistics over the last three seasons. Both ZiPS and Steamer expect more of the same in 2015. The problem with Danks might be one of sunk costs. The White Sox still owe Danks more than $28 million over the next two seasons. With Noesi already in the rotation, and only Rodon ready to help from the minors, there was not exactly a healthy competition for spots in the spring.

Noesi, might have some potential, and he showed a little in striking out six in his opening start of the season, but he appears to be the odd man out. Danks’ salary and experience seem to make him a fixture in the rotation, which pushed Noesi to the fifth spot and potentially out of the rotation should the team decide to make a change. The White Sox are likely to use Quintana on Sunday, which means Danks goes Monday and Noesi lines up for Tuesday’s start. However, Rodon pitched on Thursday, putting him on turn to make his next start on Tuesday. Using Quintana on Sunday for the Sox makes sense, but the South Side might not have to wait too much longer before they see their prize prospect make his debut.