JABO: Optimizing Jered Weaver’s Schedule
Jered Weaver is already having his spring velocity scrutinized. Weaver himself doesn’t want to answer questions about it, and he’s issued frequent reminders that there are more important things than fastball speed, and he’s right. Weaver has never lit up the radar gun, and he’s still toward the front of a big-league rotation, even though he’s dropping into the mid-80s. Location trumps everything, and Weaver is a location pitcher. If he can locate, he’ll be fine.
But there’s no denying the bigger truth here. Weaver has been progressively losing strength, and he no longer seems like the ace he used to be. With his max velocity dropping, he’s working with a reduced margin of error, and the result is that Weaver’s become more vulnerable. Earlier in his career, he worked to conquer his vulnerabilities. Now he’s got new ones, and at 32, it’s not like he’s still ascending toward his peak. At this point, Weaver is still a perfectly fine starter on a contending team, but it’s worth thinking about how he’s used. He isn’t a guy you can expect to be successful in any situation. He isn’t a Clayton Kershaw. He isn’t a Corey Kluber. He isn’t the old Jered Weaver.
The Angels’ intention is to get back to the playoffs. They’re plenty good enough, and some of their division rivals have taken a step back. Odds are, the Angels and Mariners will be going neck and neck in the AL West, and so any little advantage might end up mattering. Weaver is going to be one of the Angels’ five starters. One thing they could do is just run him out there every five days, no matter what. But what if Weaver were more carefully managed? What if we were to try to optimize a Jered Weaver pitching schedule?
If Weaver were just any old guy, I don’t think it would be that big a deal. But there are things about him, things worth keeping in mind. See, Weaver, historically, has loved pitching in Anaheim. That’s not unusual — the ballpark plays pitcher-friendly. But Weaver’s been somewhat extreme. Over his career, he’s allowed 2.9 runs per nine innings at home, against 4.0 runs per nine innings on the road. Over just the last five years, the gap is 2.5 against 3.8. Weaver gives up a lot of fly balls, and when he’s pitching at home, the overwhelming majority of those fly balls just die. On the road, they’ve been a lot more likely to get over a fence.
With Weaver, then, you want him pitching at home. Beyond that, if at all possible, you want him pitching at home in sunny matinees. It seems like his delivery makes the ball difficult for lefties to pick up. And speaking of lefties — Weaver’s seen a lot more of them over time. Some of this is just the context of his opponents, but some is also the perception of increased vulnerability. Weaver has been most vulnerable against lefties on the road. His home/road splits are predominantly due to his performances against left-handed hitters.
Read the rest on Just a Bit Outside.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
In addition to the wide divergence in his H/R splits there’s also the fact that his cFIP has gone from 83 to 96 to 98 to 108 from 2011 to 2014. His splits are getting worse over time and his baseline is also eroding so where previously you could live with the downs because of the ups that’s becoming less and less the case. He doesn’t seem to afford much value to fantasy folks this year and I don’t see his real team getting all that much, either.