Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 3/13/15

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends, welcome to the newly regularly scheduled Friday live baseball chat

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: For anyone who missed it, I’ve swapped places with Kiley, Tuesday < — > Friday, because Kiley is going to be doing a lot of Friday scouting

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Also, a note: this is the last you’ll see of me for a few weeks. After this chat, I won’t be back on the FG pages until Tuesday, 3/31. Or never, in the event of a plane crash! Who’s to say

9:07
Comment From jocephus
you enjoy ferrells antics?

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: I wonder what the experience would’ve been in a world without Twitter. Twitter made me roll my eyes a lot sooner than I probably would’ve if I were just catching clips and live look-ins. See, Twitter has a way of beating anything into the ground within just the first handful of minutes

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: I didn’t stay tuned all day long, but I think overall it was well executed, and I’m not even that much of a Ferrell fan. Really captured the spirit of spring training. I was hoping for more opportunities for him to play defense

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: There could’ve been something to be studied, about how an ordinary person would perform playing against capable major-leaguers

9:09
Comment From Lenard
So how about that new island?

9:09
9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty unreal. I mean, very real — this happens not uncommonly — but it’s always just the coolest thing. Additional fun fact: from time to time, there’s disputes over ownership. When new territory pops up on the map, sometimes more than one country claims it

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: One example: http://en.wikipedia.org/wik…

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: I remember reading about a volcanic island that appeared off the coast of Iceland some long time ago. There was a debate over to whom it belonged, and then the debate grew heated, and then it didn’t matter, because the island eroded within a few months, as new volcanic islands are prone to doing

9:13
Comment From Terrible Ted
Can Mookie have a similar impact this year we saw from Yelich last year?

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty different hitters, but just in terms of being a borderline star as an everyday player, yeah, it’s within reach. As we’ve all discussed, Betts has a fairly high floor, given his breadth of skills, and already he’s posted a higher wRC+ than Yelich with a lower BABIP. Yelich has better bat skills, but Betts has almost everything going for him

9:14
Comment From jordan
Have you thought about picking up any new hobbies lately?

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: Every week, but there just isn’t the time. I want more time for the hobbies I already have

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: But I will throw this out there! http://hobbyclub.org/

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: Really good idea

9:16
Comment From John Farrell
What do you see the Red Sox doing once Rusney is given a clean bill of health? Is he sent to AAA, are we looking at a Betts/Castillo/Victorino platoon, or does Victorino get the boot?

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Obviously, a trade is always a possibility, and there are even more potential moving parts than you’ve listed. But I really believe it’s possible to have Hanley/Betts/Castillo/Victorino share three outfield positions without anyone being too upset. There’s enough injury risk and performance risk built in. No reason they can’t all collect 500+ plate appearances

9:17
Comment From Benny
Hi Jeff! Who do you think will win the closer battle for the Yankees?

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Betances

9:17
Comment From No One Likes You Tommy John
What do teams think of players like Darvish? Clearly a great pitcher, but out for over a year? Do you ever see trades for players like him?

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: Injured players almost never get traded. Teams won’t agree. The team with the injured player will think about what he is when he’s healthy, and teams trying to trade for him will consider all the operation and rehab risk. Already, we’ve seen teams struggle to negotiate for Troy Tulowitzki, and Tulo hasn’t been projected to miss a whole year

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: Teams like reliability. It’s a big deal to them. They just won’t trade very much for a whole missed season

9:19
Comment From George is Curious
Most likely young pitcher to excel this season; House, Greene, Hahn or Eovaldi? Out of these four, who is least likely? Thanks!

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: This is a fantasy question, and I can see right through you

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: I like Greene the most right now, but I am also very excited by Eovaldi working with Rothschild. So Eovaldi has the real ability to leapfrog into No. 1

9:21
Comment From Stanford
Joey Wendle is 6-13 with 3 walks, and has looked professional defensively and offensively. If the A’s miss out on Olivera, could Wendle get a longer look for the roster?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, they think he’s a real player. Even if he doesn’t make the roster out of camp, he’ll never be that far away.

9:22
Comment From jordan
in five words or less, what solves pitching injuries?

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: Less pitching, at all ages

9:22
Comment From Guest
Is Tanaka is back?!?! Or is Tanaka back only in the sense that Spring Training is here?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: No doubts about Tanaka when he’s on the mound. Issue is just his remaining on the mound. All his consults recommended he try to pitch without having surgery, which is a meaningful data point — Davish was told by multiple guys to go under the knife — but still, the odds are the odds. Tanaka is better positioned than Darvish, but he’s still likely to have the elbow go within a matter of weeks

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: It’s just this thing that will hang over the Yankees for however long Tanaka remains on the staff. No matter how well he’s pitching, they just won’t be able to trust that he’ll still be pitching a month into the future. It’s all very anxious.

9:24
Comment From Guest
Are you going to do a podcast with Matthew before your vacation?

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: If the timing works out, that would be nice. 50/50

9:24
Comment From DAko
Can we realisticly expect Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris to be able to be able to pitch for a full year?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Norris could probably handle 150 – 160 innings. Sanchez can handle 70, out of the bullpen

9:26
Comment From Logan Davis
Which MLB team would be hurt the least by being forced to replace one starting position player with Will Ferrell? Which MLB team would you most like to see forced to replace one starting position player with Will Ferrell?

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: The Phillies could put Ferrell at first. Ryan Howard is among the very worst starters in the major leagues, and it’s not like the Phillies are going anywhere. He might even be good for ticket sales

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: I’d also most like to see the Phillies forced to replace Howard with Ferrell, because it wouldn’t be fair to do that to a contender, and the Phillies might be most likely to give in and just do it. The easy answer would be Angels/Trout because I want the Mariners to win, but I also don’t want baseball to not have Mike Trout in 2015

9:28
Comment From jordan
If Brad Miller figures _______ out, he’ll be an all-star.

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: hitting

9:28
Comment From L. Scott
Hey Jeff, I liked your top 300 rankings, but I was wondering why you don’t consider Anthony Rendon, Robinson Cano, or Josh Donaldson to be 2nd round picks? I would tend to disagree, mostly about Cano and Donaldson, thanks.

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: What?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Top 300 rankings?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: I never rank anything

9:29
Comment From Roger Dodger
Think Carlos Santana takes the leap from very good to elite this season?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: no

9:29
Comment From Chris
Danny Salazar and TJ House claim the last 2 spots in the Indians rotation now that Floyd injured again?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Appears that way, especially with Tomlin having some shoulder stuff going on

9:30
Comment From JL
Andrew Hammond!

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Goalie replacement level is so high!

9:30
Comment From tfg
Will Ferrell or Hector Noesi?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: To do what?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Regardless, the answer is Ferrell

9:31
Comment From Phillies113
In response to a comment I’d left on the Hardball Times article re: cFIP, Jonathan Judge noted that he is unsure if wRC+ uses a forced standard deviation, so it may not necessarily be true that a player with a wRC+ of 120 is actually 20% better than league average. Does wRC+ force a standard deviation that you know of, and if not, would there be value in adjusting the stat to incorporate this?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: This would be a better question for Appelman. Appelman never hosts chats. Send an email! He’ll get back to you eventually, probably.

9:32
Comment From Burgerville USA
Who would be your picks for AL and NL rookie pitchers of the year?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll go with Syndergaard and Norris. Is that boring?

9:35
Comment From mtsw
Ubaldo JImenez is reportedly throwing 89-91ish fastballs in ST. Is there a road for him being a useful pitcher without a velocity recovery or should the Orioles just trade him for Ryan Howard now and get it over with?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: No, Howard is worthless. Jimenez doesn’t have to be worthless. The easiest thing to do might be putting him in the bullpen. Voila, velocity recovery

9:38
Comment From Guest
When Erasmo gets put on waivers is it determined by last yrs record for team wit the winning claim?

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: I believe waiver priority is still based on the previous year’s standings through the 30th day of the regular season

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: I might be wrong, but I’m pretty sure

9:38
Comment From Guest
You and Bill Walton love volcanoes

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: Everybody should love volcanoes

9:40
Comment From Jimmer
Mauer had a wRC+ in the 140s in 2013 before the concussion and had a wRC+ of 125 in the 2nd half of last year. Do you see him getting back into the 130s (or better) this year?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: I think 120 is more likely than 130+, but the latter is by no means impossible. He has the bat-control skills to be an excellent hitter even without much power to show for

9:41
Comment From jocephus
they stat-casted one of his plays – http://m.mlb.com/video/topi…

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Is that really what 12mph looks like?

9:42
Comment From Lenard
Doing anything fun with your time off?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Going backpacking in Patagonia, so, hopefully. But I guess there’s some chance it’s a total nightmare

9:44
Comment From twinmh
Been curious about Jose Ramirez since he ranked so high on the KATOH analysis. What do you think the Indians do with him when Lindor comes up?

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: I know this seems like a cop-out answer, but, re-evaluate things at that moment in time? No matter what the Indians plan for, performance and health will determine the course of things. Maybe Ramirez will continue to struggle to hit, and he’ll look like a backup type. Maybe there will be something wrong elsewhere, and Ramirez will be asked to change positions. Maybe there’ll be a trade possibility. Plenty of ways this could go, and you should worry about a roster crunch only when you’re actually experiencing a roster crunch

9:46
Comment From Malady
Is there any team that you think at full health would actually be worse? (Because the players they are starting most games are worse than a platoon, minor leaguer that catches fire for a month or prospect blocked)

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: The answer is no, but the Mets probably have some better starters in the minors than they currently have in the majors

9:47
Comment From Also Jeff
Dave says BaseRuns is not a projection system, but rather a win estimator for events that have occurred. How is it that the 2015 projections are based on BaseRuns then? They are, aren’t they?

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: It’s BaseRuns of the projections. So, you take 2015 projections as things that have occurred, and then you run BaseRuns on the results. It’s better than just adding up WAR

9:47
Comment From Guest
Will Beltre get traded if Yu gets tj surgery?

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: No, they want him to retire a Ranger and stick with the organization

9:48
Comment From Burgerville USA
Going to Petco this summer. Where is the best place to sit (regular seats, not club/luxury seats)? Best place to eat (with kids) before the game (we will have had Rubio’s fish tacos for lunch)?

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: So it sounds like you’re going to a night game?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: Be warned, it can actually get chilly in the upper levels, especially in right field. Park’s right on the water. I’m fond of sitting down low in left field — you’re protected from wind and cold, you get sound echoing everywhere, and you’re really close to the field of play

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: I like eating here, although I”ve never tried to do it with kids http://www.neighborhoodsd.c…

9:51
Comment From Will Wade Davis eventually close for the Royals or another team?
First time chatting…didn’t know the first field was suppose to be for my name. Will Wade Davis eventually close for the Royals or another team?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: It’s kind of a race to get an opportunity before the skills deteriorate or health becomes an issue. This year, the Royals have elected to hang on to both Davis and Holland, but they’ll only be more expensive next season, so I bet a year from now, one would get moved, and then the reliever that gets moved would allow both to close

9:53
Comment From Jays Fan II
What would you do with Sanchez if you were the Blue Jays? SP or RP? If SP, do you give Cecil the ball in the 9th?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: RP

9:53
Comment From DL
Do you prefer Steamer over FANS?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I prefer most projection systems over the Fans, although it’s still interesting to see where Fans differ

9:53
Comment From Burgerville USA
How do you feel about the Ackley/Weeks and Smith/Ruggiano platoons in Seattle?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty good, although I can’t help but feel like they need another platoon at first base, too

9:55
Comment From Jimmer
With as keen of an eye as Mauer has, has he, more than many, been affected by the expanded K zone over the last 5 seasons?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so. If anything, you’d expect Mauer to be among the most capable players to adjust

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: I’m looking over all his numbers and I don’t see any such indication that the zone is killing him. I think he’s just deteriorating somewhat, and he’s become a somewhat less contact-oriented hitter as he’s trying to deal with various aches and pains

9:59
Comment From greg
If we can assume for a second good health (crazy, I know), repeat performances from last year, and for the sake of conversation the absence of Cole Hamels from the trade market, who returns more at the deadline: Johnny Cueto or Aroldis Chapman, and how significant is the difference?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: So it’s kind of like Lester trade vs. Miller trade, except giving Miller an extra full year of team control. As such, I’d say Chapman would return more, even though Cueto is the more valuable player. The difference, though, wouldn’t be enormous

10:00
Comment From Benny
Who would you rather have on your team: Tulowitzki for all 162 games, or Mike Trout for 125 games?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Tulo

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Presuming he’s healthy for those 162 games, and you’re not like rolling him out in a wheelchair

10:01
Comment From Burgerville USA
Who is the M’s 7th starter (assuming Walker and Elias are 5/6)?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Mike Kickham, assuming Erasmo Ramirez goes away on waivers in the next few weeks

10:03
Comment From PL78
Kendall Graveman has been using that new cutter to mow hitters down in spring so far, continuing what he did last year. Why are pundits not adjusting their ceiling for him, seeing as his previous one was not very good and he is clearly not a fringy back end but a solid mid-rotation guy now.

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: It’s hard to project a guy for a high ceiling when he’s coming off a minor-league year of 17% strikeouts. Graveman is clearly young and capable and learning, but it takes a lot for a guy to be a “solid mid-rotation” starter and Graveman hasn’t gotten there yet

10:05
Comment From Angels in the Outfield
Do we like Albert Pujols to put up similar numbers to his solid 2014 season?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: sure, why not

10:06
Comment From Luke
Are the Cubs going to get on base enough for their power to be more than a lot of solo shots?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: we have them projected for a .321 OBP and we have the, say, Dodgers projected for a .325 OBP

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: There are some over-aggressive types, but it’s not a whole team of them

10:06
Comment From Tig
Upside for Jesse Hahn this year?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Good and healthy starting pitcher for a playoff club

10:07
Comment From Logan Davis
Which player with the last name “Miller” will accumulate the most fWAR in 2015? (Notable candidates: Brad, Andrew, Shelby, Jim, Joe, probably some others)

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say Brad. I think he has a leg up on Taylor, I think Andrew Miller will allow a few dingers, and if Shelby Miller has strengths, one of them has been beating his peripherals, which fWAR wouldn’t capture

10:08
Comment From Craig Allen
Prediction for how many at-bats Allen Craig gets this season? Will they all be a member of the Red Sox?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: I think he stays with the Red Sox, but I don’t think he bats more than, say, 200 – 250 times. Needs room to be cleared

10:09
Comment From Ryan
What has gotten into M. Olt this spring?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: spring

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: Last spring he slugged .569

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: This spring he’s homered off Barry Zito and Jason Lane

10:10
Comment From mtsw
Is Dylan Bundy’s stock crashing like its 1929?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: That’s too fast

10:11
Comment From Optimetstic
The Mets literally have no lefty reliever. Tell me why they cannot put Jon Niese into the pen and give Matz a shot?

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: Niese has actual value as a starting pitcher?

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: Lefty relievers will become available toward the end of spring training

10:12
Comment From Con
Maybe you’re asked this on occasion… but why not take up the hobby of playing fantasy baseball? I could sure use yet another expert to proxy run my teams.

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Just not how I want to spend the time I have when I’m not writing about baseball. When I’m not writing about baseball, I don’t want to be anywhere close to a computer

10:12
Comment From mtsw
Should we expect guys who came up as multi-sport athletes (Samardjzia etc) to have fewer pitching injuries in the majors?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Probably by a small but real margin

10:13
Comment From Malady
Most fun division in baseball this year? Not the best, not the prettiest, but the most fun.

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Even without Stroman ๐Ÿ™ I’ll say the AL East. Literally any one of the five teams could win it or be a disaster

10:14
Comment From Guest
How impressive has Kris Bryant been so far? Will this create problems for Theo & co in their likely decision to start Bryant in AAA? Because it would seem quite cheap if they were to bring him up after exactly twelve days.

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: It’s the obvious maneuver. Every team would do the same thing. The rules have created this imbalance where two weeks of being in the minors = 1 full year of extra service, and the Cubs would be idiots to ignore that. If baseball wants to change something, don’t go after the Cubs — go after your own service-time rules

10:14
Comment From Stanley
Chris Bassitt and Kendall Graveman have been blowing it out of the water so far. If they both earn rotation slots for the A’s, could Jesse Chavez be a trade chip?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Sure, but he’s also got flexibility and the A’s love having pitcher depth, so they could just slide him into the bullpen as a multi-inning reliever

10:16
Comment From The Boat
Re: NYY closer battle – I think Betances has earned the closer’s job, but what are the odds the Yankees give priority to a sophomore on league minimum over $9 million veteran Andrew Miller?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty good, I think. There are lots of ways they could conceivably go with this, but Betances is the guy they know best, and most closers tend to be right-handed.

10:17
Comment From e
The projections believe in Pedroia, what say you?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: good player

10:17
Comment From Malady
Jeff: could you rank top 300 volcanoes?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Off the top of my head, probably not. Given time to research…probably not. I’d need to be given certain criteria

10:18
Comment From No One Likes You Tommy John
Any worries about Rendon’s knee?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Some, but not many. Seems like a small thing. But already we’re seeing how the Nationals could have things go wrong — Span and Rendon have already been hurt. They’re not the deepest team in the world.

10:18
Comment From Josh I
What should I actually trust/believe about Hector Olivera?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: The terms for which he ultimately signs. Believe nothing before that

10:19
Comment From Juicebox
Is there a chance that Giolito sees a late season call up ?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: There’s not *no* chance, but they don’t want to rush him, nor do they need him to serve as the rotation depth. They’ve already got Roark, Treinen, and Jordan

10:19
Comment From Benny
Only knowing what we do now, what are the odds that Mike Trout is going to be in the Hall of Fame some day?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: He’s already almost half the way to a decent WAR threshold. He turns 24 in August. But the Hall of Fame isn’t about WAR, and Trout needs to accumulate a lot of numbers, so…35%? Does that sound crazy?

10:21
Comment From dom
this morning, MLB’s instagram account posted a video of statcast tracking Will Ferrell running down a ball in the gap (he’s making the rounds of various spring training camps) but then TOOK IT DOWN. Very suspicious. Has the technology fallen into the hands of a social media intern??? Ferrell himself?? What does this say about proprietary rights??We need answers!

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe they also realized he wasn’t running at 12 miles per hour

10:21
Comment From jordan
I’m grilling this weekend, finally warm enough, any suggestions?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: meat

10:21
Comment From Joe Reth
Will this coming wave of highly touted SS prospects save us from the aging, lackluster blob that currently exists at the position?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: pretty mean description of Jhonny Peralta

10:22
Comment From Stanley
What’s your outlook on Marcus Semien’s defense?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Passable at short for the next few years

10:23
Comment From Malady
Tennis gives a sportsmanship award. Baseball doesn’t. Who would have won it last year if it did?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: probably Clayton Kershaw because he wins everything

10:25
Comment From The Boat
What obvious trade should be made right now that isn’t being made? (Other than Navarro to Dbacks)

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Shot in the dark, but maybe something like Carlos Quentin to the Orioles?

10:27
Comment From Bryan
What do you think about Anthony DeSclafani? Could we see a breakout here?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think a breakout, but I think he can be a real No. 4

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe that would count as a breakout, for him

10:27
Comment From MMZ
I went out and grabbed Marte after reading your JABO article on his 2nd half adjustments… how soon can we tell if those adjustments have carried forward into 2015?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Early June? Strikeouts and grounders tend to stabilize pretty quickly

10:28
Comment From Bryan
Who has a bounce back season in the AL East? Sabathia, Masterson, Ubaldo?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: The first two

10:29
Comment From Bryan
Do the Rangers trade for Cole Hamels?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: No, that would be stupid, and they know that

10:29
Comment From Guest
In general pitchers get a velocity boost as a reliever, but it isn’t true for everyone. Also, Fangraphs depth charts uses identical rate stats for a pitcher whether he is a SP or RP.

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: Not true for everyone, but true for most. It’s rare to see a guy with the same baselines.

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: I talked to Appelman last week about that projection thing but I didn’t understand his answer. He’s confident though! It’s complicated.

10:30
Comment From Bryan
What are your thoughts about Chase Anderson?

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Real good changeup, which is a real good best pitch to have. He’s a legit starter

10:31
Comment From Erik
Darvish officially scheduled for TJS on tuesday

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Baseball is so stupid

10:31
Comment From Benny
Which team will have the lowest record?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Phillies will be the worst. Shouldn’t even be close

10:31
Comment From Asking for a friend
Jeff – what advice can you give young chemistry students bogged down by too much P and O chem?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Spend less time in baseball chats, probably

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: But this is an important point in your development. Do you find that you enjoy the challenges of organic and physical chemistry, or do they just never click? Is the subject matter exciting, being able to work through and observe reaction mechanisms? Consider your response to the material, and then consider what your future might look like if you follow your gut

10:33
Comment From Joe Reth
When we look back on the 2015 season, what type of natural disaster will best describe Kris Bryant’s debut?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: Godzilla

10:33
Comment From Mike
Are you on board with printed pitcher arm ligaments?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: I’m on board with talking about them with an expert

10:34
Comment From Alex (ON)
You’re one of the fangraphs writers with the most posts every week. How much time does it take you to research and write a post for fangraphs? Obviously each article will vary but on average. Always a pleasure to read by the way!

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe something like four hours? It’s hard — actual research and writing doesn’t always take long, and the biggest challenge is probably consistently finding ideas. That takes many hours, every so often, but then is that still part of the process?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Is it considered work, if I leave my apartment and go for a jog in the hopes that an idea occurs to me somewhere in the third or fourth mile?

10:35
Comment From Phil
Do you speak Spanish? Or is a Spanish friend accompanying you? I have been to Patagonia a few years ago, and outside of the cities, Spanish was fairly necessary if you wanted to speak to a local.

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: I took seven years of Spanish, and while it’s obviously atrophied, a lot of it came back when I was in Guatemala so I’m hoping for a similar mental recovery

10:36
Comment From Mike
If the Stroman injury happened to an older pitcher could you ever justify pre-emptive TJ surgery. As in, he’ll be out for a year anyways, may as well get it out of the way?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: No? Why replace a healthy ligament with a healthy ligament?

10:38
Comment From Logan Davis
Tyler Olson’s been on a murderous rampage in Spring Training: 5 perfect IP with 8 K. This would mean nothing to me if I hadn’t been previously told by another analyst that he’s on a short list of minor leaguers that look like they rather suddenly could go all Jose Quintana. Are you at all interested in him, as a candidate to be Roenis Elias (if not Quintana)? Or is it just way too early?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: I’m definitely interested in him, especially since the Mariners’ system has an embarrassing lack of pitching ability below the uppermost level. It *is* too early, and it *is* just spring training, and “going all Jose Quintana” just means “becoming something out of nowhere”. Those things can’t really be predicted. But I buy Olson as the sort of prospect who can be quietly underrated. Not looking at an impact player, but a fast mover who could be a No. 5

10:41
Comment From Curtis
Which touted prospect are you coolest on compared to other FG writers? Why?

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: Well let’s see. I think we all have similar opinions on Sanchez and Bradley…

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Hunter Renfroe? I don’t spend all that much time really digging into prospects. That’s Kiley’s bag.

10:44
Comment From Colin
1. Does Danny Hultzen throw an innings for the Mariners this year? 2. Any good BBQ place in the Portland area? Moved back to the NW from Missouri, and haven’t found anything good yet.

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: 1) Yeah, I think the over/under is north of 0 innings
2) Clay’s, on SE Division? Maybe not the best we have, but I’m loyal to it

10:45
Comment From Curtis
Of all the players you’ve spoken to personally, which conversation did you enjoy the most? Why?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: McCarthy’s definitely on a good wavelength, and those have been insightful, easy conversations. But I was really drunk hanging out with Michael Saunders, and we were talking about NHL 94, so that was more objectively enjoyable in the moment

10:46
Comment From Guest
Which is worse Yu getting tj and Holland’s shoulder issue or losing Stro for the yr?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: For playoff chances, Stroman, because I wasn’t buying the Rangers anyway. But Stroman will make a complete recovery from his injury. Less certainty with the Rangers

10:47
Comment From Burgerville USA
Would you carry Montero as the 1B platoon mate? It would require a 5-man bench (Ruggiano, Weeks, Bloomquist/UIF, Sucre/backup catcher, and Montero)

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Not out of the gate, but I’d be open to it midseason, depending on the state of the rotation and bullpen

10:47
Comment From The Boat
Gee to Rangers now that Darvish is down, or does TEX just give up (not publicly, but privately) for 2015?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: I could see them making a small move like that. But they don’t want to get in the way of Alex Gonzalez

10:49
Comment From mtsw
Dylan Bundy for Aroldis Chapman: who says no?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: I could see that happening in July, actually

10:49
Comment From My Display Name
WIll we be talking about Jurickson Profar as a bust in a years time?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: In a year’s time? I feel like we should at least let him play.

10:50
Comment From Burgerville USA
Angels rotation: in what order do Santiago, Heaney, and Tropeano line up for the 5th slot, injury replacement #1, injury replacement #2?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: That would be my order as of now

10:52
Comment From Malady
Let’s try volcano comps. So, if Wil Myers 2015 were a volcano would he be Mount Slamet or Teide?

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: more Slamet than Teide

10:53
Comment From mtsw
Let’s say the Orioles know Ubaldo is done. Is it possible that it’s worth it to still give him 2-4 regular season starts to PROVE he’s bad before yanking him out of the order? Could be bad for team morale to demote a veteran for a rookie without giving him a shot, right? Or does morale not matter enough to punt a win or two?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Well, I don’t think starting Ubaldo 2 – 4 times is tantamount to punting a win or two

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: But I don’t think this is a situation where you need to defer to veterancy. If someone capable takes the job, then your’e fostering a healthy, equal-opportunity competition. I think that’s what players really want

10:54
Comment From mtsw
Was there ever a “radar guns cause cancer” scare?

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: Not yet, but there probably will be, given our trajectory of stupid

10:55
Comment From The Boat
What could the Yankees have done differently to have a better off-season?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: Get a better shortstop

10:56
Comment From The Boat
Does Cueto’s significant injury history give teams pause before inking him for nine figures?

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: Some, but he’s exceeded 200 innings in two of the last three years, and his injuries haven’t been of the truly troubling varieties

10:57
Comment From Hoff
The Phillies are obviously taking on a tremendous rebuild. I am still befuddled at them taking Aaron Nola, the most polished pitcher in the draft and closest to the majors. What is the point in getting a guy like this if we have no clue on when the next competitive year will be?

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: Because you have those guys for a while, and you want to be good as quickly as you can, and maybe he was the best talent available in the moment, and no one is actually as safe and close as people claim them to be around the draft

10:58
Comment From barry zito
am I the a’s 5th starter this season?

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: heavens no

10:58
Comment From Pmagner11
I’m in theology class atm… No joke my teacher’s name is Jeff Sullivan.

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: handsome teacher

10:59
Comment From Guest
Would you feel better about 1st base if the M’s traded for Carlos Santana?

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: you mean would I feel better about Carlos Santana than Logan Morrison?

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: yes, I would feel better about Carlos Santana than Logan Morrison

10:59
Comment From STiVo
Did you see today’s NY Times article on Alex Honnold?The Heart-Stopping Climbs of Alex Honnold
When heโ€™s not climbing overseas in places like Patagonia, France or Morocco, the master of climbing without ropes lives an endless road trip through the Southwestern desert, Yosemite Valley, British Columbia and points between.
By DANIEL DUANE

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: Looking forward to reading, although I might already know that which the writer has covered. Honnold is a superhero

11:00
Comment From Washington Irving
It’s not just Darvish with the Rangers. Harrison was extended for big money ($55 million) and now his career might be over, Holland keeps getting hurt after $28 million extension, Martin Perez got extended and went down with TJS…are the Rangers cursed, or are they just allocating their money to the wrong types of pitchers somehow?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: There’s a lot that could be going on, and you don’t want to make too much of what’s really just a handful of pitcher injuries, but this is a great example of the risk in investing in arms. Granted, they’ve also had investments in position players go south. It’s really quite remarkable. But people have asked about the Cubs’ plan, since they’ve mostly loaded up on position players. Looking pretty smart right about now.

11:02
Comment From Jack wilson
Produce content

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: I might ask you the same thing, Jack Wilson

11:02
Comment From Guest
Chris Taylor to Yankees? The M’s have Marte and he’s almost ready

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t really buy Marte that much, but I also am not the highest on Chris Taylor, so I think it would make sense to try to find a team that likes him more

11:02
Comment From Hack
Where in Patagonia? Been down there a couple of times. The trek to Fitz roy is amazing, but the W is life changing. Both are awesome and advisable

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: Doing the W, and then going over to Argentina to visit Fitz Roy as well

11:03
Comment From NACHO
I call bs on the 77 million offer from the dodgers on Olivera. What reason would he have to not already have signed it if it was a real offer?

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, don’t believe anything until he’s actually signed and things are official

11:03
Comment From Dan Hampton
Why are the Rockies holding on to Wilin Rosario? The guy is horrible on D and to my eyes he can’t pick up spin on breaking pitches from right handers, making him an easy out against righties. What am I missing with this guy?

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: Crazy power. Maybe some offensive improvement as he moves away from catcher.

11:04
Comment From The Boat
How much is Boston being overrated rn? Granted, every team has flaws, and their division is weak, but read through this list – Hanley’s always hurt, Craig and Victorino were terrible last year, Pedroia’s declining, Pablo’s just above average, Xander and Rusney are unproven, their rotation’s a mess, Koji’ 40, and Ortiz simply can’t keep this up much longer. Is it so hard to see their season collapsing?

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: No one in baseball can compete with their depth. They have backup plans for almost everybody. It’s going to be a difficult season to sink

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: Well, after two hours, I have officially cleared the queue!

11:05
Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again…in…April! And until then, be well and have great days.

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 3/13/15 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

newest oldest most voted
Reds Fan
Guest
Reds Fan

Votto’s spring has been forgettable so far. Do you think his leg is right?

Jason B
Guest
Jason B

Only one of them.

The other is left.

M W
Guest
M W

You mean all 4 at bats he’s had? Please! The Reds and Votto are being smart, no point in rushing back to get re-injured during meaningless games. He’ll be ready to go in 3 weeks, no worries.