Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 3/13/15

March 13, 2015

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends, welcome to the newly regularly scheduled Friday live baseball chat

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: For anyone who missed it, I’ve swapped places with Kiley, Tuesday < — > Friday, because Kiley is going to be doing a lot of Friday scouting

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Also, a note: this is the last you’ll see of me for a few weeks. After this chat, I won’t be back on the FG pages until Tuesday, 3/31. Or never, in the event of a plane crash! Who’s to say

9:07	Comment From jocephus you enjoy ferrells antics?

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: I wonder what the experience would’ve been in a world without Twitter. Twitter made me roll my eyes a lot sooner than I probably would’ve if I were just catching clips and live look-ins. See, Twitter has a way of beating anything into the ground within just the first handful of minutes

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: I didn’t stay tuned all day long, but I think overall it was well executed, and I’m not even that much of a Ferrell fan. Really captured the spirit of spring training. I was hoping for more opportunities for him to play defense

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: There could’ve been something to be studied, about how an ordinary person would perform playing against capable major-leaguers

9:09	Comment From Lenard So how about that new island?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.abc.net.au/news/…

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty unreal. I mean, very real — this happens not uncommonly — but it’s always just the coolest thing. Additional fun fact: from time to time, there’s disputes over ownership. When new territory pops up on the map, sometimes more than one country claims it

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: One example: http://en.wikipedia.org/wik…

9:12

Jeff Sullivan: I remember reading about a volcanic island that appeared off the coast of Iceland some long time ago. There was a debate over to whom it belonged, and then the debate grew heated, and then it didn’t matter, because the island eroded within a few months, as new volcanic islands are prone to doing

9:13	Comment From Terrible Ted Can Mookie have a similar impact this year we saw from Yelich last year?

9:14

Jeff Sullivan: Pretty different hitters, but just in terms of being a borderline star as an everyday player, yeah, it’s within reach. As we’ve all discussed, Betts has a fairly high floor, given his breadth of skills, and already he’s posted a higher wRC+ than Yelich with a lower BABIP. Yelich has better bat skills, but Betts has almost everything going for him

9:14	Comment From jordan Have you thought about picking up any new hobbies lately?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Every week, but there just isn’t the time. I want more time for the hobbies I already have

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: But I will throw this out there! http://hobbyclub.org/

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Really good idea

9:16	Comment From John Farrell What do you see the Red Sox doing once Rusney is given a clean bill of health? Is he sent to AAA, are we looking at a Betts/Castillo/Victorino platoon, or does Victorino get the boot?

9:17

Jeff Sullivan: Obviously, a trade is always a possibility, and there are even more potential moving parts than you’ve listed. But I really believe it’s possible to have Hanley/Betts/Castillo/Victorino share three outfield positions without anyone being too upset. There’s enough injury risk and performance risk built in. No reason they can’t all collect 500+ plate appearances

9:17	Comment From Benny Hi Jeff! Who do you think will win the closer battle for the Yankees?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Betances

9:17	Comment From No One Likes You Tommy John What do teams think of players like Darvish? Clearly a great pitcher, but out for over a year? Do you ever see trades for players like him?

9:19

Jeff Sullivan: Injured players almost never get traded. Teams won’t agree. The team with the injured player will think about what he is when he’s healthy, and teams trying to trade for him will consider all the operation and rehab risk. Already, we’ve seen teams struggle to negotiate for Troy Tulowitzki, and Tulo hasn’t been projected to miss a whole year

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Teams like reliability. It’s a big deal to them. They just won’t trade very much for a whole missed season

9:19	Comment From George is Curious Most likely young pitcher to excel this season; House, Greene, Hahn or Eovaldi? Out of these four, who is least likely? Thanks!

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: This is a fantasy question, and I can see right through you

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I like Greene the most right now, but I am also very excited by Eovaldi working with Rothschild. So Eovaldi has the real ability to leapfrog into No. 1

9:21	Comment From Stanford Joey Wendle is 6-13 with 3 walks, and has looked professional defensively and offensively. If the A’s miss out on Olivera, could Wendle get a longer look for the roster?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, they think he’s a real player. Even if he doesn’t make the roster out of camp, he’ll never be that far away.

9:22	Comment From jordan in five words or less, what solves pitching injuries?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Less pitching, at all ages

9:22	Comment From Guest Is Tanaka is back?!?! Or is Tanaka back only in the sense that Spring Training is here?

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: No doubts about Tanaka when he’s on the mound. Issue is just his remaining on the mound. All his consults recommended he try to pitch without having surgery, which is a meaningful data point — Davish was told by multiple guys to go under the knife — but still, the odds are the odds. Tanaka is better positioned than Darvish, but he’s still likely to have the elbow go within a matter of weeks

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: It’s just this thing that will hang over the Yankees for however long Tanaka remains on the staff. No matter how well he’s pitching, they just won’t be able to trust that he’ll still be pitching a month into the future. It’s all very anxious.

9:24	Comment From Guest Are you going to do a podcast with Matthew before your vacation?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: If the timing works out, that would be nice. 50/50

9:24	Comment From DAko Can we realisticly expect Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris to be able to be able to pitch for a full year?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Norris could probably handle 150 – 160 innings. Sanchez can handle 70, out of the bullpen

9:26	Comment From Logan Davis Which MLB team would be hurt the least by being forced to replace one starting position player with Will Ferrell? Which MLB team would you most like to see forced to replace one starting position player with Will Ferrell?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: The Phillies could put Ferrell at first. Ryan Howard is among the very worst starters in the major leagues, and it’s not like the Phillies are going anywhere. He might even be good for ticket sales

9:28

Jeff Sullivan: I’d also most like to see the Phillies forced to replace Howard with Ferrell, because it wouldn’t be fair to do that to a contender, and the Phillies might be most likely to give in and just do it. The easy answer would be Angels/Trout because I want the Mariners to win, but I also don’t want baseball to not have Mike Trout in 2015

9:28	Comment From jordan If Brad Miller figures _______ out, he’ll be an all-star.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: hitting

9:28	Comment From L. Scott Hey Jeff, I liked your top 300 rankings, but I was wondering why you don’t consider Anthony Rendon, Robinson Cano, or Josh Donaldson to be 2nd round picks? I would tend to disagree, mostly about Cano and Donaldson, thanks.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: What?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Top 300 rankings?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I never rank anything

9:29	Comment From Roger Dodger Think Carlos Santana takes the leap from very good to elite this season?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: no

9:29	Comment From Chris Danny Salazar and TJ House claim the last 2 spots in the Indians rotation now that Floyd injured again?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Appears that way, especially with Tomlin having some shoulder stuff going on

9:30	Comment From JL Andrew Hammond!

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Goalie replacement level is so high!

9:30	Comment From tfg Will Ferrell or Hector Noesi?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: To do what?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Regardless, the answer is Ferrell

9:31

Comment From Phillies113
In response to a comment I’d left on the Hardball Times article re: cFIP, Jonathan Judge noted that he is unsure if wRC+ uses a forced standard deviation, so it may not necessarily be true that a player with a wRC+ of 120 is actually 20% better than league average. Does wRC+ force a standard deviation that you know of, and if not, would there be value in adjusting the stat to incorporate this?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: This would be a better question for Appelman. Appelman never hosts chats. Send an email! He’ll get back to you eventually, probably.

9:32	Comment From Burgerville USA Who would be your picks for AL and NL rookie pitchers of the year?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll go with Syndergaard and Norris. Is that boring?

9:35	Comment From mtsw Ubaldo JImenez is reportedly throwing 89-91ish fastballs in ST. Is there a road for him being a useful pitcher without a velocity recovery or should the Orioles just trade him for Ryan Howard now and get it over with?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: No, Howard is worthless. Jimenez doesn’t have to be worthless. The easiest thing to do might be putting him in the bullpen. Voila, velocity recovery

9:38	Comment From Guest When Erasmo gets put on waivers is it determined by last yrs record for team wit the winning claim?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: I believe waiver priority is still based on the previous year’s standings through the 30th day of the regular season

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: I might be wrong, but I’m pretty sure

9:38	Comment From Guest You and Bill Walton love volcanoes

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Everybody should love volcanoes

9:40	Comment From Jimmer Mauer had a wRC+ in the 140s in 2013 before the concussion and had a wRC+ of 125 in the 2nd half of last year. Do you see him getting back into the 130s (or better) this year?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I think 120 is more likely than 130+, but the latter is by no means impossible. He has the bat-control skills to be an excellent hitter even without much power to show for

9:41	Comment From jocephus they stat-casted one of his plays – http://m.mlb.com/video/topi…

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Is that really what 12mph looks like?

9:42	Comment From Lenard Doing anything fun with your time off?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Going backpacking in Patagonia, so, hopefully. But I guess there’s some chance it’s a total nightmare

9:44	Comment From twinmh Been curious about Jose Ramirez since he ranked so high on the KATOH analysis. What do you think the Indians do with him when Lindor comes up?

9:45

Jeff Sullivan: I know this seems like a cop-out answer, but, re-evaluate things at that moment in time? No matter what the Indians plan for, performance and health will determine the course of things. Maybe Ramirez will continue to struggle to hit, and he’ll look like a backup type. Maybe there will be something wrong elsewhere, and Ramirez will be asked to change positions. Maybe there’ll be a trade possibility. Plenty of ways this could go, and you should worry about a roster crunch only when you’re actually experiencing a roster crunch

9:46	Comment From Malady Is there any team that you think at full health would actually be worse? (Because the players they are starting most games are worse than a platoon, minor leaguer that catches fire for a month or prospect blocked)

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: The answer is no, but the Mets probably have some better starters in the minors than they currently have in the majors

9:47	Comment From Also Jeff Dave says BaseRuns is not a projection system, but rather a win estimator for events that have occurred. How is it that the 2015 projections are based on BaseRuns then? They are, aren’t they?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: It’s BaseRuns of the projections. So, you take 2015 projections as things that have occurred, and then you run BaseRuns on the results. It’s better than just adding up WAR

9:47	Comment From Guest Will Beltre get traded if Yu gets tj surgery?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: No, they want him to retire a Ranger and stick with the organization

9:48	Comment From Burgerville USA Going to Petco this summer. Where is the best place to sit (regular seats, not club/luxury seats)? Best place to eat (with kids) before the game (we will have had Rubio’s fish tacos for lunch)?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: So it sounds like you’re going to a night game?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Be warned, it can actually get chilly in the upper levels, especially in right field. Park’s right on the water. I’m fond of sitting down low in left field — you’re protected from wind and cold, you get sound echoing everywhere, and you’re really close to the field of play

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I like eating here, although I”ve never tried to do it with kids http://www.neighborhoodsd.c…

9:51	Comment From Will Wade Davis eventually close for the Royals or another team? First time chatting…didn’t know the first field was suppose to be for my name. Will Wade Davis eventually close for the Royals or another team?

9:52

Jeff Sullivan: It’s kind of a race to get an opportunity before the skills deteriorate or health becomes an issue. This year, the Royals have elected to hang on to both Davis and Holland, but they’ll only be more expensive next season, so I bet a year from now, one would get moved, and then the reliever that gets moved would allow both to close

9:53	Comment From Jays Fan II What would you do with Sanchez if you were the Blue Jays? SP or RP? If SP, do you give Cecil the ball in the 9th?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: RP

9:53	Comment From DL Do you prefer Steamer over FANS?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I prefer most projection systems over the Fans, although it’s still interesting to see where Fans differ

9:53	Comment From Burgerville USA How do you feel about the Ackley/Weeks and Smith/Ruggiano platoons in Seattle?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty good, although I can’t help but feel like they need another platoon at first base, too

9:55	Comment From Jimmer With as keen of an eye as Mauer has, has he, more than many, been affected by the expanded K zone over the last 5 seasons?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so. If anything, you’d expect Mauer to be among the most capable players to adjust

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I’m looking over all his numbers and I don’t see any such indication that the zone is killing him. I think he’s just deteriorating somewhat, and he’s become a somewhat less contact-oriented hitter as he’s trying to deal with various aches and pains