Jason Collette Baseball Chat – 2/14/14

Jason Collette:

Jason Collette: Happy Corporate-Created Holiday everyone! Let’s chat

Comment From KSSoxFan
Any hope for any of the vets in the Marlins infield? Late round fliers?

	Jason Collette: I actually like the youth best here in Hechevarria and Dietrich. This has a Major League movie type feel to this roster – Salty even resembles a younger Jake Taylor

Comment From Bill
Are you concerned about Encarnacion’s wrist? Feel like we’ve heard nothing about it recently.

	Jason Collette: Yes, a bit. Toronto hasn’t exactly had the best luck with health in recent seasons so any bit of injury news from there concerns me. Their lack of action on the free agent/trade market leads us to believe that all is well up there, but if Anthopoulous shows up to a presser in a ROTC uniform, be worried.

Comment From Brad
What are your thoughts on Kevin Gausman? Thanks.

	Jason Collette: I like him a ton. When he’s commanding his fastball and throwing his offspeed pitches, it can be NC-17 material.

Comment From Pale Hose
The Rays model is based on turning over expiring contracts for future talent. If they can’t do this with Price is it the beginning of the end for their competitive cycle?

	Jason Collette: The beginning of that cycle has happened in recent years with the restrictions on the international market and added rules to the draft process. The Rays are in a catch22 here as the current team, on paper, is arguably the best in franchise history. Trading Price now changes that dramatically. They are apparently comfortable with that they will lose in potential trade compensation by holding onto him another season will be offset by possible postseason glory. The recent deals of Torres, Hahn, Lobaton, Vettleson, and Rivero to add depth to the upper levels of the minor league depth chart in terms of pitching help offset poor drafts from a few seasons ago. They need to develop more young hitting to keep this thing going though.

Comment From Guest
what is your opinion on markakis? any chance he bounces back

	Jason Collette: Hard to believe he is only 30, but he has played a lot of baseball (160 or more games in 4 of last 5 years). Last year he just didn’t look like he could drive the ball well , especially vs RH pitchers. I’m pessimistic on a big bounceback

Comment From KSSoxFan
Is pitch-framing data umpire independent?

	Jason Collette: The numbers we publish on the site are based on the zones that umpires actually call, and consider batter handedness, per Sullivan.

Comment From Tom
Puig’s shoulder is a non-issue right?

	Jason Collette: These things seem to be a familiar issue the first week of camp as players resume full activity. I’m not as worried about him as I am to hear about pitchers like Walker and Hamels.

Comment From Johnson
Does Stanton ever post huge numbers before leaving Miami?

	Jason Collette: He is already putting up huge numbers; it is not his fault that they can’t get enough guys on base in front of him to maximize his output. At a time when power is at a premium in baseball, I would love to see what the Marlins could get in return for trading Stanton right now.

Comment From toot toot
It’s a shame the marlins couldn’t get jamie moyer to play the eddie harris role. maybe call barry zito?!?

	Jason Collette: Randy Wolf would have been perfect for it.

Comment From Brad
I see you are big Homer Bailey fan this year. Eno doesn’t believe his increase in velocity is sustainable. He says pitchers lose velocity as they age so he’s dubious about the increase in velocity last year. What’s your counter? Thanks.

	Jason Collette: I’m not dubious of the increase until the velo decreases. Bailey’s opponents wOBA has decreased each of the past five seasons. Home runs are the final plateau for him. I still like him best in the non-Kershaw Cy Young field.

Comment From Heath
What are your thoughts on Chris Carter this year as a late round corner infielder in a 12 team mixed league? I feel like he has the same upside as Brandon Moss at a much lower price.

	Jason Collette: Revisiting the power premium comment from earlier, I like Chris Carter a lot. He is going to hurt your average, but that’s 25 home runs in the bank with the potential for 35 homer upside. I could watch and listen to this video all day long http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1yhoICBcqg

Comment From CMR
Best StL starting pitcher in 2017?

	Jason Collette: Shelby Miller

Comment From pr
Where would Carlos Rodon rank in minor league prospects?

	Jason Collette: Using the top 100 list that Hulet put out earlier this week, I would put him in the top 40 before he throws a MILB pitch with room to move up.

Comment From Guest
with a team like the rays who have a depleted farm system because of their many graduates to the MLB, does the recent signing of Bedard show off the depth they have in the minors that continually puts them in contention even with a sub par farm system

	Jason Collette: I think this helps take the pressure off the kids in camp. That 5th spot should be Odorizzi’s unless something goes terribly wrong. Remember, 4 of the 5 starters hit the DL last season for this team forcing guys like Romero & Colome to make starts quicker than expected. I don’t expect Bedard to make the team out of camp (can opt out with vet rights) but his #’s vs LH last season were way out of whack. The Astros defense certainly affected him last season, and he’ll be going to a much better situation in Tampa Bay in that regard.

Comment From Bob
Is it insane to take Ryan Braun with the 6th pick in a mixed league?

	Jason Collette: I’m not doing that. If Kershaw is there at 6 and Braun is at 6, I’m taking Kershaw 88 days a week.

Comment From Guest
What’s your prognosis / prediction for the 2014 Cincinnati Reds season?

	Jason Collette: I want to see how Price sets the lineup. They had the luxury of having 2 >.400 OBP guys in the first three slots last season, now they have just one and a giant question mark at the top if Hamilton starts up there.

Comment From Tim
Thoughts on the Teheran extension?

	Jason Collette: I like it. I’m a fan of teams retaining their homegrown talent as long as they can, especially when they have the talent that Teheran has displayed thus far.

Comment From Guest
If you’re the Mets over the next year do you, trade some pitching for a bat or hold on to the excess pitching for 6/7th starters & bullpen/injury depth ?

	Jason Collette: It sounds cliche, but you can never have too much pitching. See Toronto over the past few seasons. I’d hoard as much pitching as I possibly could.

Comment From Uncle RIco
the rays/A’s are suppposed to be the ‘moneyball’ teams on a small budget, but the Astros have like 26M in payroll cmon now

	Jason Collette: Well, they’re paying Scott Feldman as much as the entire Orioles rotation is making this season. Astros 2014 = Tampa Bay 2006. They’re heading in the right direction.

Comment From Juan
How great is Frank Wren’s offseason?

	Jason Collette: Pretty awesome. If they can get a multi-year deal worked out with Kimbrel so they can avoid this mess at least one more offseason, that will be even better. I expect Simmons will be the next guy we hear about.

Comment From KSSoxFan
In a chat earlier this week, someone (Eno, Dave, I forget) mentioned that tanking in baseball doesn’t make as much sense as it does in basketball or football. Doesn’t the success of the Rays the last several years after a decade of being awful and stockpiling good picks and the recent success of the Pirates show that this may not be the case at all? That maybe tanking in baseball does work, just the gratification is more delayed. Although the reward may last longer!

	Jason Collette: Grabbing Longoria and Price when they did with high picks certainly helped, but look at the rest of the guys on their roster that make TB successful right now? They got Myers while trading a 16th round pick, Cobb was a 4th rounder, Moore was an 8th rounder, Jennings a 10th rounder. Now, if baseball teams could trade that top pick away like football and basketball, then we’d see some 1984 NBA action going on.

Comment From RK
What happens first – M’s trade one of Smoak, Franklin, Ackley or they sign Cruz?

	Jason Collette: or does one get injured? Rough start to the Seattle camp thus far. Really feel bad for Gutierrez. I’ll go with a trade of Smoak to Pittsburgh

Comment From Steve
How much should we downgrade Iwakuma after the finger injury?

	Jason Collette: I’m worried because his money pitch is the splitter. Maybe it takes him a bit longer to recover from this because of that.

Comment From Uncle RIco
the Snakes grab a wild card. is Goldy MVP?

	Jason Collette: Where the team finishes should not matter, but he should be a strong candidate.

Comment From Carlp
What statistics are best for evaluating RPs? Would you look at the same stat(s) to do projections?

	Jason Collette: This is my own personal leaderboard I use when evaluating relievers – http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=c%2c13%2c120%2c121%2c109%2c-1%2c40%2c43%2c44%2c51%2c-1%2c6%2c45%2c62%2c-1%2c59%2c212&season=2013&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=718%2c3656%2c3970%2c1122

Comment From beau
ervin santana or nelly cruz?

	Jason Collette: In a vacuum, I’d rather have Santana. I like the changes he has made in his delivery and approach since late 2012.

Comment From Robert
His first full year in the bigs: 8.36 k/9 (Moore: 8.88), 4.35 bb/9 (Moore: 4.11), 4.08 fip (Moore: 3.93)
His second year in the bigs: 9.74 k/9 (Moore: 8.56), 4.79 bb/9 (Moore: 4.55), 3.08 fip (Moore: 3.95)
His third full year in the bigs: 9.34 k/9, 3.57 bb/9, 3.12 fip.

The other player is Kershaw. Not saying Moore is the next Kershaw. But do you think it is a possibility Moore could follow a similar path and really break out this year?

	Jason Collette: Consistent fastball command is what currently holds him back. I’ve seen him go out and mow through the heart of a lineup and then struggle to locate vs the bottom of it. Some games he has it, others he doesn’t. All of the pieces are there.

Comment From Richard Kisinewe
Looking at the end of the Tigers rotation, there are two young guys in Smyly and Porcello that can surprise. Thoughts on both of them cashing in 12+ W, sub 4.00 era seasons?

	Jason Collette: I really like Porcello for this season. The changes he made in his approach and sequencing last season played up very well and the retooled infield defense should be an added bonus for him.

Comment From Chip
I’m not buying Tommy Hunter closing in Baltimore – who’s next in line – O’Day or Webb?

	Jason Collette: Nor should you – the issues vs LH batters are real. O’Day has his own issues with splits while Ryan Webb made nice strides last season to address his own issues with splits by working both sides of the plate rather than just trying to backdoor his breaking ball. I wrote Webb up in early December http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ryan-webb-and-moving-out-of-splitsville/

Comment From Heath
Over/Under 25 Homeruns this year for Votto?

	Jason Collette: Over. I’d really like to see him hit 2nd if Hamilton is leading off. That’s going to lead to more fastballs when Hamilton is on base. Bryan Price’s latest interview does not sound like he agrees.

Comment From C.C. Sabathia
Am I poised for a bounceback season this year? What do my final 2014 numbers look like?

	Jason Collette: Is that you CC? I barely recognize you at your current weight of 125 pounds. I’m concerned about how the infield defense is going to affect you as well as your declining velocity making you more hittable.

Comment From MakeitRayn
Is it coincidence your stuck doing the vday chat, or do you just spend every Friday doing a chat?

	Jason Collette: I’m also going to a college baseball game tonight. My wife is so lucky she married a romantic guy like me.

Comment From Joey
What are your expectations for Jose bautista this year? I know injuries are the biggest concern but if he stays healthy, I think he can be a top 10 bat. His power, BB’s and good K rate is still there.

	Jason Collette: If you could guarantee me Bautista will have 650 PA this season, then that could happen. The rates are good, and he’s chasing fewer pitches & making more contact these days.

Comment From Jim "Kitty" Kaat
Realistically how long do you think it will be before we see Kohl Stewart mowing down hitters as the ace of the Twins’ staff?

	Jason Collette: 2019? Gives him enough time to develop & take his lumps at the big league level. Fernandez spoiled us last year; kids aren’t supposed to be that awesome right away at the big league level.

Comment From Peskys big pole
Which of the herd of young Red Sox starting pitchers do you think will be the first to arrive and break into the starting rotation? I realize it may be a while as at last count I think the big team as about six starters already.

	Jason Collette: Yes, it is quite the crowded situation already. I’ll go with Barnes

Comment From Marcus A.
Am I crazy for thinking Brad Miller is a top 5 SS option?

	Jason Collette: You are. Hanley, Tulo, Segura, Reyes, Desmond, Andrus, and Cabrera would need a lot to go wrong while Miller maxed out his potential for that to happen.

Comment From N. Ron Field
Jon Singleton see any significant time in the majors this year?

	Jason Collette: The opportunity will certainly be there for him. There is no need for the Astros to push him up to add an extra year of arbitration to his career unless they work out a pre-agency deal with him. First base prospects are slim picking these days if you peruse top 100 lists and power gets expensive.

Comment From Earl
What is some of your favorite fantasy baseball analysis that you have read or written of late?

	Jason Collette: The RotoWire draft magazine & the articles at Fangraphs+ #shamelessplugs

Comment From Jimmy
Do the Mariners try to trade for another OF now that Gutierrez is (officially) down? I’ve long been contemplating a De Aza trade to Seattle.

	Jason Collette: Ackley, Saunders, Almonte, Morrison, Hart right now on the chart so they Mariners have 2 outfielders. Trading for another one would help, but that need was there before Guti decided he needed the year off. Nelson Cruz isn’t the answer IMO.

Comment From Kiley
Why haven’t you mentioned me yet? I CTRL+F’d the chat for my name and no dice. For the record, I do that on every web site I visit.

	Jason Collette: If you want to know more about the international draft market, 2014 draft prospects, and hear about the whitest of white scouts teaching hip hop lyrics to Dominicans, go read Kiley’s work at Scout – http://sbb.scout.com/2/1375072.html

Comment From .500
If Burnett pans out with sub 3.50 era, Hamels returns in mid April and maintains 3.00ish era, Cliff Lee maintains a sub 3.00 era, and offense is consistently league average, do the Phillies have a shot at playoffs? How about if Gonzalez is a surprise ace? 3.00ish era

	Jason Collette: Moving from PNC Park and the Pirates defense to Citizens Bank Park and the Phillies defense is comparable to what happened to Caroline Channing in Two Broke Girls. I don’t see this ending well for him. The Phillies are still well behind the Nationals and behind the Braves within their division on paper.

Comment From Heath
If Bailey is your sleeper CY pick for the NL this year, do you have a sleeper AL CY pick as well? My two guys are Shields and Chris Sale this year who i am expecting big things from.

	Jason Collette: Homer pick – Alex Cobb. Non-homer pick – Sonny Gray.

Comment From dbet
Think the Mariners could trade one of their 1B for a Padres OF?

	Jason Collette: The Padres do indeed have a logjam in the outfield. Those interleague rivals (what a BS forced “rivalry”) do match up well

Comment From Short guy in lakeland
IS Andrew Friedman declining as a GM?

	Jason Collette: Not even sure how to evaluate that. If you want to put the blame on him for recent ROI on high draft picks, I guess you could say so. I feel he’s had a very good offseason.

Comment From David
Or, actually, Gardner for Nick Franklin makes a lot of sense.

	Jason Collette: Not from years of player control. Gardner is in his walk year and Franklin has 6 more years of control. Now, if Garder was willing to sign an extension (and he shouldn’t be because the CF market is shallow next offseason), maybe.

Comment From jack
who won the Nats/Rays trade?

	Jason Collette: Both teams. Nats needed an upgrade at second catcher, and got a nice arm in Rivero & potential in Vettleson. Rays got another upper level arm with experience who comes with 2 plus pitches and gets to work with guru Neil Allen in Durham on the changeup.

Comment From Papa Grande
Xander Bogaerts going to dominate this year?

	Jason Collette: Bogaerts impressed me last year. He had some PA’s that resembled someone with years of MLB experience and not just days. He is going to be fun to watch in 2014 at the plate and in the field.

Comment From Earl
Any fear that Chris Johnson Keppingers (verb)?

	Jason Collette: Not really. Johnson makes harder contact to all fields and has posted high BABIPs in other seasons. Average will come down, but other numbers are repeatable.

Comment From David
The “Best Offseason” award goes to…?

	Jason Collette: The Braves

Comment From here goes nothing
As an Oakland fan, I’m freaked out by all the talk about Sonny Gray’s upside. I smell the ghost of Rich Harden.

	Jason Collette: Rich Harden was done in by that awful delivery. Gray is more polished.

Comment From David
So your wife makes you watch Two Broke Girls?

	Jason Collette: She hates the show…it’s a guilty pleasure of mine during the offseason.

Comment From Guest
What’s the cutoff for innings pitched last year for ROTY this year? Gausman pitched 47.1 innings last year, is he eligible?

	Jason Collette: 50 IP or more than 45 days of service time during 25-man roster days. Looks like he only has 40 days of service time so he should be good.

Comment From Michael
name one player who didn’t hit a lot of home runs last year, that will break out in that department this year. (had to have hit at least 1 mlb home run last year)… not named Khris Davis.

	Jason Collette: Alexei Ramirez.

Comment From Jake
The more I read about platoon splits the more I find myself getting lost in them. Why do so few teams run a platoon split in the outfield, where it could do the most good?

	Jason Collette: You have to factor in defense as well. If you haven’t read Bradley Woodrum’s articles on splits in FG+, you should do that as well as he gets into platoons by type of pitcher faced (GB vs FB).

Comment From Guest
do you see the a’s and rays as 2 teams run in a similar way from a baseball operations stand point, as in how beane and friedman fill out the roster and go about the offseason and such>?

	Jason Collette: I think both have one eye on the present and one on the future. When they operate under the constraints they do, they have to be creative and sometimes rob Peter to pay Paul. The trade yesterday involved 2 of their top 20 prospects at a time when the system is at its weakest in terms of overall talent in quite some time.

Comment From Tex
Can Perez pick up the slack with the loss of Holland?

	Jason Collette: I don’t know how much more upside there is to Perez. What we saw last season was good, but I don’t see him taking a leap up in strikeouts, but luckily for him he has a very good defense behind him.

Comment From Prich
Hey Jason, thanks again for taking on the Friday chats! Curious, what is your area of baseball ‘expertise’? Stats, strategy, prospects..?

	Jason Collette: A little bit of everything. Strategy is probably my favorite area next to studying pitchers on video. Currently reading Derek Johnson’s book “The Complete Guide to Pitching” and it is quite good.

Comment From Jack
how good is Salazar? Higher ceiling than Gray?

	Jason Collette: I don’t think so. I think Gray has a bit more pitchability and polish. Salazar has exciting stuff, but I am weary of converted position players who have already had one injury making the transition to the mound.

Comment From David
I see a lot more going wrong than right for the Yankees in the short-term future. Ellsbury’s consistency, McCann’s durability, Beltran’s age all raise huge red flags. Couple that with CC and Teixera’s declining skills, a relatively weak farm system…please talk me from jumping off the ledge. Thanks.

	Jason Collette: That infield situation is not good. Kelly Johnson has logged ~100 IP at 3rd in his career, Jeter’s range issues are well documented, Brian Roberts can’t stay on the field…yet the mess that ended last season still won 87 games. My concern with them now is their best defense on the infield is on their bench, but they lack the depth in the system to absorb injuries.

Comment From Jack
who wins the Nats 5th starting spot?

	Jason Collette: I’ll go with Jordan.

Comment From here goes nothing
Moneyball 1.0 was about finding a holistic, quantitative measure of a player’s contribution on the field. Are interaction effects–between players (e.g. platoons), between pitcher and defense, between player and environment (e.g. stadium)–, in your opinion, where Moneyball 2.0 will happen? (My hypothesis)

	Jason Collette: and 3.0 will come into play as we get more Hit & Field f/x data into use. Even more data is coming into the industry and it will be interesting to see how teams are going to process it to their advantage.

Comment From Lamarison Lamar Javarison Jamar
you think the a’s have abandoned the OBP strategy? the havent been high in that category the last couple of years

	Jason Collette: They’re playing with the talent they have. I like the offense that they’ve put together, and if Reddick can come back from his wrist issue as Werth did from his, A’s could be very good this season.

Comment From Jake
What do you think about holding chats with specific themes, ballpark effects, HOF vote, growing baseball fandom, rule changes, concussions, platoons, aging curves, etc? Sounds like it could be fun, and it’d be nice to have a chat with that level of focus

	Jason Collette: Not a bad idea, certainly something we can suggest to the front office

Comment From here goes nothing
what was your favorite move of the offseason? not “best,” just “favorite.” the one that tickled you the most.

	Jason Collette: Dan Haren’s deal. Loved it

Comment From Niko
Early reports on Pineda are encouraging – are the spewing the company line, or could we possibly see the pitcher he was before the injury?

	Jason Collette: We won’t know until he takes a mound in a game and we see what the neutral scouts are saying from their radar gun readings.

Jason Collette: Thanks all…time to run and record the podcast with Eno!